February 8, 2009 A Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler Research Associates
Brief Prosperity Profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario
Dec 01, 2014
A profile of Thunder Bay, Ontario and comparison with its peer regions across North America. Prepared by Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler of the Martin Prosperity Institute as part of TVOntario's AgendaCamp series on Ontario's changing economy.
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February 8, 2009
A Brief Prosperity Profile of
Thunder Bay, Ontario
Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler
Research Associates
2
1. Present Benchmark Peers
2. Describe Selected Measures
a. Some “Lagging”
b. Some “Leading”
3. Get Your Thinking
Where does Thunder Bay
rank?
4. Discussion
Outline / Approach
3
Benchmark Peers
Peer Selection
14 peer states/
provinces for
Ontario based on
population.
10 cities/regions
selected with
populations
approximately the
same as Thunder
Bay.
• Battle Creek, MI
• Bloomington, IL
• College Station, TX
• Kelowna, BC
• Mount Vernon, WA
• Rocky Mount, NC
• Sherbrooke, QC
• State College, PA
• Trois-Rivieres, QC
4
5
Technology
Technology
“A high technology base is both a
necessary condition for and a result
of a region having a strong creative
economy.
Being known as a "high-tech" region
helps to attract the creative
workforce, which, in turn, generates
new technologies making the region
even more high-tech.”
Technology
• “Tech Pole” Index (based on Milken Institute)– Share of total US/Canada “high technology”
– Regional concentration of “high tech” among all industries
• Combination allows smaller, tech-intensive
regions to score well
• US & Canada, based on total employment
7
Tech-Pole Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
• Peer Average: 0.021
• Lowest peer score: 0.002 (Battle Creek, MI)
• Highest peer score: 0.079 (State College, PA)
•Where does Thunder Bay
rank?–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?8
Tech-Pole Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
9
0.013
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.018
0.030
0.035
0.079
Battle Creek, MI
Dalton, GA
Mount Vernon, WA
Bloomington, IL
Trois-Rivières, QC
Thunder Bay, ON
College Station, TX
Rocky Mount, NC
Kelowna, BC
Sherbrooke , QC
State College, PA
North American Tech Pole IndexToronto, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
10
Talent
Talent
“The concentration of people in the Creative and Super Creative Classes, has a stronger relationship with economic growth.
Creative people don't just cluster where the jobs are. They cluster in places that are centers of creativity and also where they like to live.
Places need a people climate -- or a creativity climate -- as well as a business climate.”
Talent
• “BA and above”
• Percent of population 25 and older with a
bachelor’s (4-year) university degree or higher
(masters, graduate, PhD)
12
Talent Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
• Peer Average: 22.2%
• Lowest peer score: 12.0% (Dalton, GA)
• Highest peer score: 40.2% (State College, PA)
•Where does Thunder Bay
rank?–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?13
Talent Index: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3”
14
13.0%
12.0%
12.4%
14.0%
14.9%
18.1%
19.1%
21.0%
31.2%
39.8%
40.2%
Dalton, GA
Kelowna, BC
Thunder Bay, ON
Trois-Rivières, QC
Rocky Mount, NC
Sherbrooke , QC
Battle Creek, MI
Mount Vernon, WA
College Station, TX
Bloomington, IL
State College, PA
Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above)Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
Talent
• Now, a “Creative Economy”– Innovation, Thinking, Creativity
• “Paid to think”–Everyone has the potential to be creative
• Percent of workforce in the “Creative Class”T = Technology and R&D Innovation
A = Arts and Culture
P = Professional and Managerial
E = Educating and Training
15
Creative Class: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
• Peer Average: 25.4%
• Lowest peer score: 18.5% (Dalton, GA)
• Highest peer score: 32.8% (Sherbrooke, QC)
•Where does Thunder Bay
rank?–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?16
Creative Class: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
17
26.9%
18.5%
21.2%
22.3%
23.6%
24.9%
25.7%
26.8%
27.1%
27.5%
29.4%
Dalton, GA
State College, PA
Rocky Mount, NC
Mount Vernon, WA
College Station, TX
Kelowna, BC
Trois-Rivières, QC
Thunder Bay, ON
Bloomington, IL
Battle Creek, MI
Sherbrooke , QC
Creative Class as % of WorkforceThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
18
Tolerance / Inclusiveness
Tolerance / Inclusiveness
“Diversity has become a politically
charged buzzword. To some it is an
ideal and rallying cry, to others a
Trojan-horse concept that has
brought us affirmative action and
other liberal abominations.
Creative Class people use the word
often, but not to press any political hot
buttons. Diversity is simply something
they value in all its manifestations.”
Tolerance / Inclusiveness
• Mosaic Index
• Percent of population foreign born
• Immigrants generate growth and are a sign or
regional “openness”
20
Mosaic Index: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
• Peer Average: 8.1%
• Lowest peer score: 2.2% (Trois-Rivieres, QC)
• Highest peer score: 15.0% (Dalton, GA)
•Where does Thunder Bay
rank?–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?21
Mosaic Index: Thunder Bay “Middle 5”
22
10.3%
2.2%
3.1%
3.4%
4.7%
5.5%
6.9%
10.1%
10.9%
14.6%
15.0%
Trois-Rivières, QC
Battle Creek, MI
Rocky Mount, NC
Bloomington, IL
Sherbrooke , QC
State College, PA
Mount Vernon, WA
Thunder Bay, ON
College Station, TX
Kelowna, BC
Dalton, GA
Mosaic Index (% Pop)Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006
23
Population Growth
Population Growth
• Percent growth/decline in total population
• Between 2001 and 2006
24
Population Growth: Where does Thunder Bay rank?
• Ranking out of 11 (Thunder Bay + 10 peers)
• Peer Average: 6.1%
• Lowest peer score: 0.0% (Battle Creek, MI)
• Highest peer score: 12.4% (Mount Vernon, WA)
•Where does Thunder Bay
rank?–Top 3?
–Bottom 3?
–Middle 5?25
Population Growth: Thunder Bay “Bottom 3”
26
0.0%
0.8%
2.3%
2.9%
3.8%
6.3%
6.4%
7.2%
9.8%
12.0%
12.4%
Battle Creek, MI
Thunder Bay, ON
Rocky Mount, NC
Trois-Rivières, QC
State College, PA
Sherbrooke , QC
College Station, TX
Bloomington, IL
Kelowna, BC
Dalton, GA
Mount Vernon, WA
Population GrowthThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, (00-05)
Discussion / Summary
27
For More Information
28
Summary StatisticsPeer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Provincial/State
Average
Total Population, 2006 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000
GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000
Median Age, 2006 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5
Overall Cost of Living Index 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5
Overall PerformanceThunder
Bay, ON
Peer
Ranking
Peer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Provincial/State
Average
Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7%
Job Growth (00-05) -3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3%
GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000
Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1%
Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A
TechnologyThunder
Bay, ON
Peer
Ranking
Peer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Provincial/State
Average
Total Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517
Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46
Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5%
North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63
North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189
TalentThunder
Bay, ON
Peer
Ranking
Peer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Provincial/State
Average
Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1%
Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0%
Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0%
Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7%
Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5%
Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A
ToleranceThunder
Bay, ON
Peer
Ranking
Peer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Provincial/State
Average
Visible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1%
Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9%
Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81
Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69
Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1 0.76 0.92 N/A
Territorial AssetsThunder
Bay, ON
Peer
Ranking
Peer
Minimum
Peer
Average
Peer
Maximum
Social and Cultural AssetsArts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22
Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40
Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17
Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42
Civic AssetsFederal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66%
Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12
Housing and Transportation AssetsPopulation Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76
Median Housing Value to Income Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14
Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98
Thunder Bay, ON123,000
$5,000
41.8
102.8
For More Information
• Richard Florida’s books–“The Rise of the Creative Class”
–“The Flight of the Creative Class”
–“Who’s Your City?”
• martinprosperity.org
• creativeclass.com
29
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