Brics Report

7/31/2019 Brics Report

1/204


2/2049780198085386 Bricks Report_00_FM.indd ii 09/03/12 4:49 PM


3/204

1

A Study of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and

South Africa with special focus on synergies

and complementarities

THE REPORT

9780198085386 Bricks Report_00_FM.indd iii 09/03/12 4:49 PM


4/204

3Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.

It furthers the Universitys objective of excellence in research, scholarship,

and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trademark of

Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries

Published in India by

Oxford University Press

YMCA Library Building, 1 Jai Singh Road, New Delhi 110 001, India

Ministry of Finance, Government of India 2012

The moral rights of the author have been asserted

First Edition published in 2012

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in

a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the

prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted

by law, by licence, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics

rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the

above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the

address above

You must not circulate this book in any other form

and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer

ISBN-13: 978-0-19-808538-6

ISBN-10: 0-19-808538-9

Typeset in 11/14.6 Adobe Garamond Proby Excellent Laser Typesetters, Pitampura, Delhi 110 034

Printed in India at G.H. Prints Pvt. Ltd, New Delhi 110 020

This report is written by experts and scholars from BRICS countries with the

support of BRICS governments. It aims to promote pragmatic

economic cooperation among BRICS countries.

The data from international institutions and individual country sources have

been used in this report for comparability reasons, which may not be fully consistentwith government statistics, and hence shall not be deemed as officially approved.

9780198085386 Bricks Report_00_FM.indd iv 09/03/12 4:49 PM


5/204

Contents

List of Tables

Preface

Acknowledgements

Executive Summary

1. Ow o BRICS 1

2. I o h Fnn C on BRICS 79

3. B P 103

4. Mjo Chng 160

5. BRICS Cooon 169


6/204


7/204

tables

1.18 BRICS Eo o Good nd S 33

1.19 BRICS Sh n Wod Eo 341.20 BRICS Eo Po, 2009 35

1.21 Hgh-hnoog Eo 36

1.22 BRICS Sh o Wod Eo o S 36

1.23 Io o Good nd S 37

1.24 BRICS Io Po, 2009 38

1.25 BRICS Sh o Wod Io o S 39

1.26 Eo Lnkg o BRICS 401.27 BRICS Sh n Go Rn Inow 41

1.28 d Bn nd Cn Aon Bn 42

1.29 Sh o Go FDI Inow 43

1.30 Co-on Mon o FDI Fow 45

1.31 Co-on Mon o Pooo Fow 46

1.32 BRICS nd Fogn Ehng R 47

1.33 En D Sok, o 481.34 BRICS Ehng R Rg 50

1.35 Sok Mk Pon o BRICS Con 53

1.36 o Ld Do Con 55

1.37 Mk Czon o Ld Con 56

1.38 Sok dd, no Ro 58

1.39 Eq Von M: Ddnd 59

Yd Ro

1.40 Egng Mk En Fnnng: 60

o Bond, Eq, nd Lon

1.41 Inn So n BRICS Eono 61

1.42 Pdn Indo o h Bnkng So 65

n BRICS

1.43 Bnk Po Indo n BRICS 66

1.44 Fnn S A n BRICS 74


8/204

tables

1.45 Cd Dh o Inoon Ind 75

1.46 Do Cd Podd Bnkng So 76

2.1 Go Fnn C nd BRICS: 82

S Indo

2.2 Sz o Don M n Fnn C 87

2.3 M Cn Bnk 88


9/204

Preface

T on BRIC nd o Bz, R, Ind, nd Chn.

T w ond h Ch Eono o Godn Sh, n

2001, n d Bdng B Go Eono BRIC,

whh ookd h gowh o o h o g g-ng ono h nd gogh d.

T n ndng w h h BRIC wod n nng

on o n h go ono. T ojon w d

n on, h BRIC ono d hn

d.

T d nd h ogn o n o nd Soh

A o gowng gnn n h go ono. Tnw on , ho, BRICS nd oz h o

ono ow o Bz, R, Ind, Chn, nd Soh A.

ogh h BRICS on o o hn 40 n o h go

oon, n 30 n o h nd , nd h n wod

GDP (n PPP ) h nd o 16 n n 2000 o

n 25 n n 2010 nd d o gnn n h

n .


10/204

preace

T d, whh od h n o nn nd

h n nk o h BRICS, o on ng nd o-n wn h ono, hghghng h o gowh

d o h wod ono. T h on ,

o ooon, nd nghnng ono nk o h h BRICS

od o o n o n h nw no o h

o- go ono.

T o h h o oon o ogng o

nk, gn h h wod ono n o nd -nng kng owd h gng ono. T o

o n h go o h d d h BRICS no

h dh o, whh nd h nng hogh g

n ong ono.

T d, whh n , n h n o owd-

ookng o h k o no nd nghn h oon

o BRICS n h go ono. Ch 1 o h d odn ow o h BRICS, h nn, gonn, nd g-

o wok, nd h h n h go ono. Ch 2

n h o h go , h n o h BRICS

ono, h o nd on , h o o

o, nd h onon o go gowh. Ch 3 ook

h n h BRICS nd h on h hod o h

oh nd h wod ono. Ch 4 ook h hng h

h BRICS k o n ong o hgh gowh h.

Ch 5 o o ooon ong h BRICS ndng

n h od o h BRICS nd h wod ono o

hgh gowh jo.


11/204

Acknowledgements

The following officials contributed to the preparation ofThe BRICS

Report: (Brazil) Jose Nelson Bessa Maia, Fabio Augusto Najjarian

Batista, Eiiti Sato, Paula Gala, Marcos Antonio Macedo Cintra,

Daniel Silva Grimaldi, and Andre de Mello e Souza; (Russia) AlexeyRybkin, Alexey Shestov, Alexey Chernov, Sergey Potapov, Andrey

Bokarev, Maxim Kulikov, Pavel Chernyshev, Lubov Starikova, Ilya

Prilepskiy, Vasily Miheev, and Irina Kim; (India) Anil Bisen, Alok

Sheel, S.V.S. Dixit, Sunil Saran, Rajiv Ranjan, Supriyo De, Reetu

Jain, Rajmal, Rangeet Ghosh, Rakesh Kumar, Sonna Thangzason,

Vishal Raina, and Suraj Kumar; (China) Wu Guoqi, Wang Xin, Song

Hong, Zhao Fuchang, Guo Wensong, Wangui Mo, Tianwei Zhang,and Zhan Shu; (South Africa) Xavier Carim, Marisa Fassler, Neil

Gary Cole, Mashabela Victor, and Gert Marincowitz. Dr Kaushik

Basu, Chief Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance, Government of

India, was the reviewing authority on the overall progress of the work.

9780198085386 Bricks Report_00_FM.indd xi 26/03/12 10:07 AM


12/204


13/204

Executive Summary

T d, whh od h n o nn nd h

n nk o h BRICS, o on ng nd on-

wn h ono, hghghng h o gowh d-

o h wod ono. T h on , oooon, nd nghnng ono nk o h h BRICS

od o o n o n h nw no o h

o- go ono. T d ddd no h.

I. Overview of BRICS

Ch 1 o h d od n ow o h BRICS, h

nn, gonn, nd go wok, nd h h n

h go ono. ogh, h BRICS on o o hn 40

n o h go oon, n 30 n o h nd

, nd h n wod GDP (n PPP ) h nd o

16 n n 2000 o n 25 n n 2010, nd d

o gnn n h n . I on o h GDP n


14/204


15/204

executive summary

T BRICS, how, od w wh h o o

do dnd. S, h o o d owh h onodon o. Bd h n o

o, h on o h BRICS ono o h

n . T on nd () ognzng h ndon o

h dong hoh, () owng do dnd o

d o o gowh, () nng nn o o,

() onong nd ngng ow, () ng

o on n n o ho gnd, nd () ong on n don nd

on gnon.

III. Best Practices

Ch 3 ook h nd non whn hBRICS ono h h d gnn dn o h

ono nd ond o h hgh gowh . Mn o h

nd non h n whn h BRICS o o

nhnng ooon nd ng ng, o h h BRICS

o od gow .

Mjo how o Bz nd g h,

whh h nod h on no jo o, h o o- o od no, nd h gn o E

hgh-hnoog n. In h o h,

ondon h n h g o nd h o h

n-AIDS o od on. A go wok

h hd Bz whnd h hok o h go , ndng

h gon o ow, nd h n o do

n-dnond nnon ond, whh n n


16/204

executive summary

k o no, oh h h n

hghghd.R jo hn nd o dng 19992009

h ood ono gowh, owd non, nd d o

d n h n o o ng ow h o n.

S hn nd ng o h O Son

Fnd h w dng h , dg o hogh

h doon o don-kng ow, nd h nodon o

on no o 13 n h nd o-n n on.

T n how non o Ind nn-

h whh h n nn n hng 89 n nn

gowh o h ono n n . P n h n

on o h n hd n h noon hnoog

o nd h nno k h h d o ozon nd

odon o ow-o good o h Indn k. Bd,h d oh o on on nd h

En Co Boowng Po h hd n h

ono gn g nd o d ow nd nnd

h n d n . T Rgh o Inoon A

nng h nn nd on o gonn

oon nd h Mh Gndh Non R Eon

Gn Sh jo owd kng gowh n.

T nd non o Chn ho h h

hd n og n o nng d ono

gowh, nhnng o non ngh, nd ong h

ng ndd o o. I o nd h n kng

h ho non o hgh nzd nnd ono

o o o k ono, nd o od nd -

od on o on h on o h od wod. S


17/204

executive summary

FDI on nd zon, nd n nnng,

ong oh.T Chn gozon od h o n dn, n h

ogn d nn w nogd. T -non gon-

n (/on) h n n ng ogn

nn odng od n nd o

go nonn. Chn o h n n nn -

o-ngn. T o nd don o Chn nkng

nd nd nn k n on d o d ndn gowh.

Soh A h ong od o on oono

ngn, whh h hd o oo h don

o d nd qd ond k nd dd n n-

. Soh A h ong non nd hgh dod,

w-gd nkng o h d h wo o h

nn . Wh h o dod nd nd nn on h An onnn, Soh A o n h

ngon o o, k, nn, nd n

o A ono don nd zon o h onnn

on gowh o n h go ono. Owd o-

nd Soh An on ong h g o o

FDI n A nd h on don nnng non

ng n nng o n h ndng o gon n-

nn.

IV. Major Challenges

Ch 4 ook h hng h h BRICS od n o-

ng o hgh gowh h. Sn h oono


18/204

executive summary

nd o don whn BRICS ono, h h-

ng h o k h gowh o n o .Fo nn, n Bz oono zon k on-

don o o nd n gowh. T hng

h h Bzn ono oow: () d good

o whn od o oh EME k Chn; () ng

nd nn h o n n oh BRICS ono

k Chn nd Ind; () on qd n -

o ngn; nd () o nd o nhn h dh o hnn o w o ong- nnng o

h o.

In h o R, h k hng ng h

non o o, n nf n nd

ndzd n onoo, nd nghnng h n-

n .

Fo Ind, h jo hng () kng h gowh oo n, () ong h n, () do-

ng h g o, nd () nhnng d o n

, h don nd hh, o g o h

oon.

S o Chn, o hng ndd o dd oh

do nd n hng. T o hng o Chn

o n d nd ono gowh, dn oh o

nd do dnd n o nd w. o -

ng o h ono, nn o o ndd o o

h ndon o Chn g ng. T gonn

o nd o o ndng n h o don, hh-

, nd non, whh w o d on ng

nd oo onon o . T o nd o o


19/204

executive summary

h nn , dn o n h hh, non,

nd don , nd od o o o nd-dod gon.

T k hng o Soh A o h hgh o

n gowh h on nd d nq. Low

do ng, n o, ndq nn n o-

d o o h ono, k hog, nd nng f n

gonn d oh hng. Po ood

n h Nw Gowh Ph on h k n o dd hhng hogh don h on

h n o h gh gn nq. Whn dn ngd

oono wok, h gonn ozng o

od on h non o n nwok, k

don, nnon o oh on, nd

o h oo hgh ddd o, h don o

ono, n ooon, gn ono n-, nd gon ngon.

On oon hng h BRICS ono h nd

o non don who whh n gowh

nno nd. In o-go wod g hd

nn n nd wk gowh n h jo ono, h

BRICS on h k oon o oodn h

ono o nd do g no on o nhn h

oon gong n h nnon ono nd nn

, o o zon o o h wod ono

who. BRICS hod nng honz nd oodn

h o wh w o nng h gowh on

nd o wh go n. T n o oo-

ng ong h n o h BRICS w o h


20/204

executive summary

go ono. A g gnd o ogng o nk ong h

BRICS, ond n h jon o, on o ono-dng nd ndng h o n go .

V. BRICS Cooperation

Ch 5 ng o ooon ong h BRICS, nd

o nw o ooon ndng n h odn gowh nd don n BRICS on nd wod-

wd. In h BRICS ono, h hg oon o

nd ono gowh nd don o h n . In h

gd, h o o h n ooon ong h

BRICS o gn o dng. I on o no h

h oo d o n h h gh on o oo

ng onh ong h BRICS ono. How,non o h q h don nd h

o nd hn o dnd n g

d. T nw o ooon d ow hod n -

oo o ndd n h don nd n

h gnd o ng o h BRICS d, n, nd

oh ok. T o ggd oow:

() In-BRICS d nd Inn Cooon

() Cooon n In Fnnng

() Ind Don nd Cooon

() Cooon n noon

() Cooon n Food S

() Cooon n hn Edon

() Cooon n Fnn Mk Don


21/204


22/204


23/204

Overview of BRICS

Basic Information on BRICS Countries

I , Bz, R,

I, C, S A (BRICS) q ,

, . T BRICS

f

,

. E G-20 ,

BRICS

f . A , f 40

25 GDP PPP. I

GDP PPP , f

, C, I, R, Bz, S A

2, 4, 6, 8, 26 , ( 1.1). I

PPP-j GDP

, f 55

1


24/204

Table1.1

OverviewoBRICS,2010

GDP

inPPP

G

DP

ShareinW

orldGDP

PerC

apita

(inUS

$billion)

(US$

billion)

(inpe

rcent)

GDP

(US$)

RankinWorld

GDP

1990

2010

1990

2010

1990

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Brazil

8

2,172

508

2,090

3.3

2.9

3,464

10,816

Ru

ssia

6

2,223

1,465

3.0

10,437

India

4

4,060

326

1,538

3.1

5.4

378

1,265

China

2

10,086

390

5,878

3.9

13.6

341

4,382

SouthArica

26

524

112

357

0.9

0.7

5,456

7,158

Source:IMFdatabase.

No

te:Notavailable.


25/204

overview o brics 3

20008,

.T BRICS ( 1.2)

, , . C,

9.6 q. , -

z, R C. R 20

, C

12 . I

, R 121.5 . Bz 47 S A f-

(8.5 q ), R, C, C,

U S A.

E BRICS

. Bz

, , , ,

, 60 (j 7 ) 31.2

. R ,

, . I

, C -

. S A 26 ,

GDP US$ 357 . I -z 1.2 q.

12 . I -

, , , ,

-. S A 45 A

S A 4

.


26/204

Table1.2

LandUseinBRICS,2008

Country

Land

Arable

Area

Harvested

Production

Irrigated

Irriga

tedLand

Area

Land

o

rCereals

oCereals

Land

(percento

(1,000ha)

(1,000ha)

(1,000ha)

(1,000tonne)

(1,000ha)

arab

leland)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Brazil

845,942

61,000

20,220

71,288

4,500

6.6

Ru

ssia

1,637,687

121,649

41,716

95,079

4,346

3.5

China

932,749

108,642

88,593

483,680

64,141

52.3

India

297,319

158,145

99,880

246,774

62,286

36.8

SouthArica

121,447

14,500

3,319

14,586

1,498

9.7

World

13,0

03,4

69

1,380,515

708,495

2,489,302

306,247

21.1

Source:FAOStatisticalYearBook,2010.


27/204

overview o brics 5

Economic Growth

I -

, BRICS,

f .

A BRICS, I Bz

- . A , -

2008 f

(EME). A , f

- . A G S,

BRIC 47

GDP 2050,

10 . A

10 GDP 10

GDP.

T BRICS -

- I Bz

f C R. S A -

f

A .

A BRICS, C, I, -

. B 1978 2009,

C 9.9 ,

. T

R Bz f

f 1990.


28/204

6 the brics report

T

BRICS

( 1.3).

T BRICS

, -

, Bz S A

. S A

,

.

A BRICS, C

I. H

GDP C I.

A , - f

( 1.4).T BRICS -

z . I

BRICS

, , . T

-

, ,

, .

Linkages between Agriculture, Industry, and Services Sectors

T BRICS -

f . T


29/204

Table1.3

GrowthRateoGrossDomesticProduct

(percent)

19912002

2002

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

BR

ICS

Brazil

2.6

2.7

3.2

4.0

6.1

5.2

0.6

7.5P

Ru

ssia

4.7

6.4

8.2

8.5

5.2

7.8

4.0P

India

5.7

4.6

9.2

9.8

9.4

7.3

5.7

10.4

China

10.3

9.1

10.4

11.6

13.0

9.6

8.7

10.3

So

uthArica

2.1

3.7

5.3

5.6

5.8

3.7

1.7

2.8

Ad

vancedEconomies

2.8

1.7

2.7

3

2.8

0.5

3.2

3.0

Eu

roArea

2.1

0.9

1.7

3

2.8

0.6

4.1

1.7

USA

3.5

1.8

3.1

2.7

2.1

0.4

2.4

2.8

World

3.2

2.9

4.5

5.1

5.2

3.0

0.6

5.0

Source:WorldEconomicOutlook,IMF(2011).

No

te:P:Projection;Notavailable.


30/204

Table1.4

GrossDomesticInvestmentandSavings

(percenttoGDP)

Country

1990

1995

2000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Brazil

Investment

20.2

18

18.3

16.8

18.3

20.7

16.5

19.3

Saving

21.4

16.5

16.5

19.7

18.8

18.4

16.1

17.0

Ru

ssia

Investment

25.4

18.7

21.4

24.1

26.2

22.7

19.8

Saving

28.8

38.7

34.1

33.2

34.9

33

24.7

India

Investment

24.2

26.6

24.2

36

37.6

35.6

34.5

37.9

Saving

22.7

25.4

23.2

32.9

33.5

30.2

29.8

34.7

China

Investment

36.1

41.9

35.1

43.6

41.7

42.5

44.8

48.8

Saving

39.6

44.1

37.5

51.3

50.5

50.2

54.2

54.0

So

uthArica

Investment

18.2

15.9

19.7

21.3

22.0

19.4

21.7

Saving

19.1

16.5

15.8

14.4

14.1

14.9

15.4

20.0

Source:WorldBankDatabase.

No

te:Notavailable.


31/204


32/204

Table1.5

SectoralShareinGDP

(percentagetoGDP)

Country

Sectors

1990

1995

2000

2

005

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Brazil

Agriculture

10.1

5.8

5.6

5.7

5.9

6.1

Industry

29.9

22.0

27.7

2

9.3

27.9

25.4

Services

60.0

72.2

66.7

6

5.0

66.2

68.5

Ru

ssia

Agriculture

7.6

6.7

5.4

4.9

4.7

Industry

27.9

31.4

3

2.9

29.7

32.9

Services

64.6

62.0

6

1.6

65.6

62.4

India

Agriculture

30.0

26.8

23.2

1

8.9

19.0

17.1

Industry

22.3

23.2

20.7

2

1.0

21.0

28.2

Services

47.7

50.0

56.1

6

0.0

60.0

54.6

China

Agriculture

26.0

19.7

15.2

1

2.2

11.6

11.0

Industry

35.5

40.6

40.7

4

2.2

42.8

48.0

Services

38.5

39.7

44.1

4

5.6

45.7

41.1

So

uthArica

Agriculture

4.6

3.9

3.3

2.7

3.2

3.0

Industry

40.1

34.8

31.8

3

1.2

32.5

31.1

Services

55.3

61.3

64.9

6

6.2

64.3

65.8

Source:UnitedNationsSystemo

NationalAccounts.

No

te:Notavailable.


33/204

overview o brics 11

3 60

GDP.I W E F -

, C 27 ( 139 ) 201011,

BRICS 51 (I), 54

(S A), 58 (Bz), 63 (R), . T

C z (2), -

(4), (26). T -

BRICS , S A

( 1.6).

Education, Inequality, Demographic Trends,

and Other Social Indicators

T BRICS j, -

-

, f . T

-

, -

. T --

BRICS ( 1.7).T

, -

BRICS . A

, 0 14 -

I (32.1 ), Bz (27.9 ), C

(21.4 ), R (15.3 ). I

I ,


34/204

Table1.6

RankonGlobalCom

petitivenessIndex(GCI),201

011

Country

GlobalCompetitive

Inrastructure

Macroecon

omic

HigherEducation

Market

Business

Innovation

Index

Environm

ent

andraining

Size

Sophistication

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Brazil

58

62

111

58

10

31

42

Ru

ssia

63

47

79

50

8

101

57

India

51

86

73

85

4

44

39

China

27

50

4

60

2

41

26

So

uthArica

54

63

43

75

25

38

44

Source:GlobalCompetitivenessReport201011,WorldEconomic

Forum.


35/204

Table1.7

PopulationandDemographicProfleoBRICS

otalPopulation

UrbanPopulation

Dependency

otalFertilityRate

(million)

(percentototal)

Ratio

(birthsper

woman)

Country

1990

2010

1990

2010

1990

2010

19905

200510

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Brazil

149.6

195.4

73.9

86.5

65.9

47.9

2.6

1.7

Ru

ssia

148.1

140.4

73.4

73.2

49.4

38.7

1.6

1.5

India

862.2

1214.5

25.6

30.0

71.5

55.6

3.9

2.5

China

1142.1

1354.1

26.4

47.0

51.2

39.1

2.0

1.8

So

uthArica

36.7

50.5

52.0

61.7

72.7

53.6

3.3

2.4

Source:HumanDevelopmentReport,UNDP.

No

te:Dataor1990inthecaseo

RussiahasbeentakenromHD

R2010.


36/204

14 the brics report

25 . A j U N,

I 30 2025 35 2040. I 2020, I 29

, 37 C

US, 45 W E 48 J.

A j, C 1.5

2030 . A

, I

1,029 1,400 200126, 36 25 1.2

.

A 2010 , I z

30 , C 40 , R

Bz 73 85 , . I

S A, 61.7

. J , C I z,

. S A

z

HIV/AIDS.

T BRICS

q .

V BRICS ( 1.8). A

BRICS, R F (71 169

) H D I (HDI, 2010),

S A (129) I (134) .

S A ( -

15 ) (88.9 )

(87.2 ) (HDI, 19992007).


37/204

Table1.8

SocialSectorIndicato

rs,2007

Brazil

Russia

India

China

SA

1

2

3

4

5

6

HumanDevelopmentIndex(HD

I,2007)

HDIRank

75

71

134

92

129

Ad

ultLiteracy(percento15yrs

andaboveduring19992007)

Male

89.8

99.7

76.9

96.5

88.9

Female

90.2

99.4

54.5

90

87.2

Child-relatedIndicators

GrossEnrolmentRatio(2007)

87.2

81.9

68.7

61.0

76.8

ChildrenunderAge05yrs(during20006)

6

3

46

7

12

Po

pulationbelowIncome

NationalPovertyLine

21.5

19.6

28.6

2.8

Po

pulationnotUsingImprovedW

aterSupply(2006)

9

3

11

12

7

LifeExpectancy(yrs)

Male

68.6

59.9

62.0

71.3

53.2

Female

75.9

72.9

64.9

74.7

49.8

InequalityMeasures

Richest10percenttoPoorest10percent

40.6

11

8.6

13.2

35.1

GiniIndex

55.0

37.5

36.8

41.5

57.8

Source:UNDP,HumanDevelopme

ntReport,2010.

No

te:Notavailable.


38/204

16 the brics report

B q

Bz ( 47 1,000 1990 22.5 2009), - Bz

, R .

Fiscal Sector

A 20079 , f . M f f

, , f .

F G-20

S , J 2010. G-20

, f f

,

. I , f f .

BRICS . T,

q . F , C

. I

- E;

I , - . T R Bz

. S A

-

A 1994. I BRICS ,

f .

I 2000, BRICS f -

. I F R L


39/204

overview o brics 17

(FRL), Bz

B G L . S, I, f -

f f F R B

M (FRBM) A. I , C -

. I

1990, S A

- - z. T

.

R . A

L F B 201113,

f (, , /GDP

) . T f 5.9 GDP 2009 3.6 GDP 2011 ,

2.9 GDP 2013. I ,

f f . T L

F B 201214 f 1.6

GDP 2013 0.7 GDP 2014. F

B A

P, q f 2015.

A f,

R - -

. I , - R

F - f (

) 2015; f

.


40/204

18 the brics report

A 2011, f

R F, -f

f . I ,

( L B) -

;

. E

R F 201214.

C, R, ( 2020 S)

. T

- -

f .

I C, I, Bz, R -

, . I f f

f

( 1.9).

Table 1.9 F Df G G( GDP)

C 1998 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bz 6.5 3.84 3.5 2.36 1.4 3.1 2.9

R 8.0 3.3 8.3 6.8 4.9 6.3 3.6

I 7.8 9.3 5.3 4.0 8.0 10.0 9.4

C 2.8 3.3 0.7 0.9 0.4 3.1 2.6

S A 1.5 0.8 1.4 0.5 5.2 5.8

Source: IMF D.

Note: N .


41/204

overview o brics 19

I BRIC ,

f . D 2008 2009, f BRICS

f -

. E R,

f , f

2009. D f

2009, Bz C f

BRICS ( 1.10).H f

E . I

,

, -

, . A

BRICS, I Bz --GDP

69 66 GDP, , 2010( 1.11).

L , -

, f

BRICS ( 1.12). I

I, Bz, S A,

- ,

q f j .O , BRICS,

,

f .

T f j 201015

BRICS . F -

, I

, R S A


42/204

Table1.10

FiscalBalanceoGeneralGovernment

(percentageoGDP)

Brazil

Russia

India

C

hina

SouthArica

Year

Revenue

Expenditure

Revenue

ExpenditureRe

venue

Expenditure

Revenue

Expenditure

RevenueExpenditure

1

2

3

4

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

19

98

27.8

42.3

34.6

42.5

16.1

23.9

12.1

14.9

20

00

30.4

35.3

36.2

32.8

16.6

26.0

13.8

17.1

26.3

27.9

20

01

31.3

37.2

36.9

33.7

16.6

26.1

15.1

17.9

27.4

27.8

20

02

31.9

39.5

37.0

36.3

17.1

26.4

15.9

18.9

26.4

27.5

20

03

31.4

39.2

36.4

34.9

17.5

26.1

16.2

18.6

26.6

29.0

20

04

32.2

37.6

36.6

31.7

18.2

25.4

16.6

18.1

28.1

29.9

20

05

33.4

39.2

41.0

32.8

18.4

24.8

17.2

18.6

30.1

29.9

20

06

33.4

39.4

39.5

31.1

19.4

24.7

18.2

18.9

31.6

30.4

20

07

33.9

38.3

39.9

33.1

21.0

25.0

19.8

18.9

31.8

30.5

20

08

34.1

38.0

38.6

34.3

19.7

27.2

19.7

20.0

30.7

30.9

20

09

33.1

39.3

34.3

40.5

18.9

28.5

20.0

23.0

27.3

32.4

20

10

37.4

40.3

35.3

38.9

17.5

26.5

20.4

22.9

27.5

33.3

Source:IMFDatabase.

No

te:Notavailable.


43/204

Table 1.11 G D G G

( GDP)1998 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bz 66.7 66.7 65.2 64.1 68.9 66.1

R 59.9 9.0 8.5 7.8 10.9 9.9

I 65.4 71.4 76 72.9 72.6 74.2 69.2

C 11.4 16.4 16.5 19.8 16.8 18.6 17.7

S A 42.0 31.4 27.4 26.7 30.1 35.7

Source: IMF D.

Note: N .

Table 1.12 F C P

C M- F

Bz F . T R$ 50

M 2011

,

. M R$ 15.8

, R$

34.3 2011. I -

,

, f,

. P

G A P

(PAC).

R R - ,

2010 f j

3 GDP. B 2010, -

201012

- 12 GDP

9.5 GDP 2012,

-

j, -

. O ,

- f 4.7

GDP 2013. (Contd)


44/204

22 the brics report

I G f

f f 3 GDP

201314. T

-,

, ,

.

C T f

2010. I C

f 2011.

S A S A f

- f -

. T

-

. T

. T

- j

, , . S , -

j f. T

GDP z 201516

.

1.12 (Contd)

C M- F

( 1.13).

O , Bz,

f j, . I C f

2011.

O , BRICS

f . A ,

, -

f f. T

f f


45/204

overview o brics 23

Table 1.13 C F Aj P

F M R M DAj R E P

N E P

HIGH I

(> 6 )

MEDIUM C &

(3 6 ) S A

LOW R Bz

(< 3 )Source: World Economic and Financial Survey, IMF, M 2010.

. T

. T

q f

.

Monetary Policy Framework

T BRICS -

( 1.14). Bz S A -

, C, I, R .

T C B Bz (BCB) M P C

(COPOM) 20 J 1996, -

-

. T COPOM

- . Bz -


46/204

Table1.14

MonetaryFrameworksinBRICS

Country

MonetaryPolicyFr

amework

KeyMonetaryPolicyools

Objectives

Brazil

Inationtargeting

Interestrate(Selicrate):Interestrateon

Ination:Pointtargeto4.5percent

overnig

htinterbankloanscollateralized

withtolerancerangeo2percentage

onede

raldebtinstruments

pointsorheadlineCPI

Ru

ssia

Nosingletargetindicator

OMOs

andstandingacilities;

oensurestabilityonational

-Ination(CPI)targetor3-yearperiod

reserve

requirements

currency

-Managedoating

exchangerateregime

India

MultipleIndicatorsApproach

Keypolicyrate:Repo/reverserepo

Maintainpricestability,fn

ancial

rateandreserverequirements,

stability,andensureapprop

riate

CRRandSLR

owocredittoproductive

sectors

China

MultipleIndicatorsApproach

Reserverequirementratio,centralbank

Maintainthestabilityothevalue

baseinterestrate,rediscounting,

othecurrencyandthereby

central

bankrelending,openmarket

promoteeconomicgrowth

operation,andotherpolicyinstruments

specife

dbytheStateCouncil

So

uthAricaInationtargeting

Keypolicyrate:Repurchaserate

Inationtargetrangeorheadline

CPIo36percentcombinedwith

fnancialstabilityobjective


47/204

overview o brics 25

J 1999. U

, COPOM j N

M C (CMN). I

CMN, G C B q

M F

, q

,

.I Bz ,

- , O-S . T

O-S BCB M P

C (COPOM). T O M O D

(D)

O-S

COPOM.S 2006, COPOM ,

. E ,

C C B -

C B . A

q (M, J, S, D), COPOM

C B Infation Report,

, COPOM j .

M , B R,

f

. I 2000, R

. I

,


48/204

26 the brics report

, -

. T j

5 .

A B

R , ,

q. T B R

:

f f (REPO )

f .

T B R

,

R . T -

- , 0.45 0.55US . T B R -

- .

A , R B

I (RBI) , ,

j q

. M I

z, z- f , q

, .

T

, , .

T j , ,

q

, ,


49/204

overview o brics 27

-

. I , ,

. T

-, (M3)

. A

- 19989, -

( , , ,

) q , f , f

, , , , , f-

j

.

W f

, RBI

. T

-

q

- . A Lq Aj F

(LAF) J 2000 - q

- . T LAF

, - j. T RBI

/

.

I C, j

. T P


50/204

28 the brics report

B C (PBC) q ,

, , , , f

S C.

T M P C C

j-

. T , ,

C S

C. T C PBC;

j

,

j ,

-

. T C

. T C

q . A

C -

M P C.

T S A R B (SARB)

f C R S A

R. D

, B

S A

. I

F 2000

CPI 36

.


51/204

overview o brics 29

T

R B. T (MPC) . D

MPC

SARB . T ,

- Monetary Policy Review

. SARB

M P F j

. I , G SARB P P C F

.

T SARB

-

,

. F

j SARB.SARB

. Lq -

. A

, -

q

f q.

T MPC

.

H, SARB

. I, ,

- . O ,


52/204

30 the brics report

S A

f.

Price Situation

O , -

BRICS , I, C, S A ( 1.15). A

BRICS, R, Bz, S A

,

C I. I 2010,

.

Table 1.15 I: A C P( )

C 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bz 7.1 6.9 4.2 3.6 5.7 4.9 5.0

R 20.8 12.7 9.7 9.0 14.1 11.7 6.9

I 4.0 4.2 6.2 6.4 8.3 10.9 13.2

C 0.4 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 0.7 3.3

S A 5.4 3.4 4.7 7.1 11.5 7.1 4.3

Source: IMF.

External Sector

G ,

, BRICS ,


53/204

overview o brics 31

1990, j

. T f - -

. I

BRICS

f ,

( 1.16).

I BRICS -

. T z

, BRICS

f .

Merchandise Trade and Invisible Flows

T BRICS

. T

- f,

,

( 1.17).

brics exports

A BRICS

GDP,

-

( 1.18).


54/204

Table1.16

GlobalIntegrationo

BRICSEconomies

Sharein

rade

Cu

rrent

ForexReserves

ExternalDebt

Debt

Service

Worldrade

Openness

Accoun

tBalance

(percent

(US$billion)

R

atio

(percentoGDP)

oGDP)

Country

1990

2010

1990

2010

1990

2010

1990

2010

1990

2009

1990

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Brazil

0.8

1.2

6.9

11.2

0.8

2.3

1.5

13.7

119.7

276.9

22.5

23.4

Ru

ssia

2.3

30.3

4.9

0.0

30.4

381.3

4.4

17.7

India

0.5

1.8

6.9

21.7

1.2

3.2

0.5

18.0

85.7

237.7

34.9

5.9

China

1.6

9.2

17.4

29.5

1.3

5.2

7.6

48.8

55.3

428.4

11.7

2.9

So

uthArica

0.6

0.5

24.3

27.9

1.4

2.8

0.9

10.7

23.3

42.1

9.3

Source:IMF,UNCAD,andWor

ldBank.

No

te:Notavailable.


55/204

overview o brics 33

T BRICS

. T BRICS

,

-

. L,

z z , ,

BRICS ( 1.19).

Table 1.18 BRICS E G S( GDP)

C 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

Bz 6.9 6.8 10.1 15.1 13.8 11.3 11.2

R 29.8 44.3 35.2 31.5 28.2 30.3

I 6.9 10.2 12.3 18.8 23.7 20.1 21.7

C 17.4 23.1 23.3 37.1 34.9 26.7 29.5

S A 24.3 22.8 27.8 27.4 35.9 27.7 27.9

Source: UNCAD.

Note: N .

Table 1.17 BRICS S G

( )1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

BRICS 3.6 6.0 7.0 11.2 13.6 13.7 15.0

Bz 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2

R 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.3

I 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8

C 1.6 2.6 3.5 6.4 7.9 8.3 9.2

S A 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Source: UNCAD.

Note: N .


56/204

34 the brics report

Table 1.19 BRICS S W E

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

BRICS 3.9 6.5 7.5 12.2 14.8 15.1 16.3

Bz 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3

R 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.9 2.4 2.6

I 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4

C 1.8 2.9 3.9 7.3 8.9 9.6 10.4

S A 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

Source: UNCAD.Note: N .

D BRICS f

, -

. F , -

93.6

C 66.0 51.8 I S

A, , 38.0 Bz 21.1 R . R

( 70 ),

, , 60

Bz. S A

A. T S

A ( 51.8 )

, q, ( 1.20).

S BRICS

-

, -

BRICS . T

- ,

( 1.21).


57/204

Tab

le1.2

0

BRICSExportsProfile,2009

Country

MerchandiseSh

arein

SharebyComm

odity

Exports

W

orld

Agri-

Fuelsand

Manu-

SharebyDestination

(US$

T

otal

cultural

Mining

factures

billion)

Exports

Products

Products

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Brazil

153.0

1.2

37.7

21.3

38.0

EU

China

US

Argentina

Japan

(22.3)

(13.2)

(10.3)

(8.4)

(2.8)

Ru

ssia*

303.4

2.5

6.9

69.0

21.1

EU

Belarus

China

Turkey

Ukraine

(52.7)

(5.5)

(5.5)

(5.4)

(4.6)

India

164.9

1.3

10.2

20.6

66.0

EU

UAE

US

China

H

ongKong

SAR,China

(20.5)

(14.4)

(10.8)

(5.9)

(4.0)

Ch

ina

1,201.6

9.6

3.4

2.9

93.6

EU

US

HongKong

Japan

R

ep.Korea

SAR,China

(19.7)

(18.4)

(13.8)

(8.1)

(4.5)

So

uthAfrica

61.7

0.5

10.7

34.8

51.8

EU

China

US

Japan

Switzerland

(26.5)

(10.5)

(9.0)

(7.6)

(4.2)

Sourceofstatistics:WTO.

No

te:*Nationalaccountsdata.

9780198085386 Brics Report_01_Ch-01.indd 35 26/03/12 12:50 PM


58/204

36 the brics report

Table 1.21 H- E ( M

E)C 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bz 7.1 4.8 18.6 12.8 11.9 12.0 13.9

C 17.2 8.1 6.9 6.5 9.3

I 2.4 4.3 4.8 4.7 5.3 5.7 8.6

R 10.5 18.6 30.6 29.7 28.7 31.0

S A 5.7 7.0 6.6 5.7 5.2 5.6

Source: W B D.

Note: N .

I -

, ,

, BRICS . A

, f

BRICS ( 1.22).

Table 1.22 BRICS S W E S( )

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

BRICS 2.1 3.8 4.7 7.0 8.8 8.7 9.8

Bz 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9

R 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2

I 0.6 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.7 2.6 3.1

C 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.9 3.7 3.7 4.2

S A 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4

Source: UNCAD.

Note: N .

brics imports

A - , -

. T


59/204

overview o brics 37

f -

, , q ( 1.23).

Table 1.23 I G S( GDP)

C 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bz 5.6 8.2 11.0 10.8 13.0 10.6 11.4

R 26.7 23.7 21.7 22.3 20.9 22.1

I 8.5 11.5 13.9 22.1 30.5 25.0 26.4

C 13.7 20.2 20.3 30.6 26.5 21.7 24.9

S A 18.6 22.8 25.3 28.9 38.3 29.4 24.9

BRICS: Share in World Imports

BRICS 3.3 6.1 6.2 10.0 12.5 13.3 14.8

Bz 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3

R 1.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.8

I 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.1

C 1.5 2.5 3.4 6.1 6.9 8.0 9.1

S A 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

Source: UNCAD.

Note: N .

T j BRICS , - z

( 1.24).

T BRICS ,

- -

. A

, - z


60/204

Tab

le1.2

4

BRICSImportsProfile,2

009

Country

MerchandiseSharein

SharebyComm

odity

Imports

W

orld

Agri-

Fuelsand

Manu-

SharebyOrigin

(US$

Total

cultural

Mining

factures

billion)

Im

ports

Products

Products

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Brazil

133.7

1.1

6.4

17.6

75.9

EU

US

China

Argentina

Japan

(22.9)

(15.8)

(12.5)

(8.8

)

(4.2

)

Ru

ssia

191.8

1.5

15.2

3.8

79.8

EU

China

US

Ukraine

Japan

(45.9)

(13.4)

(5.4

)

(5.3

)

(4.2

)

India

257.2

2.0

5.6

37.6

46.6

EU

China

UAE

US

SaudiArabia

(14.4)

(11.5)

(7.4

)

(6.0

)

(5.4

)

Ch

ina

1,005.9

7.9

7.6

24.9

67.1

Japan

EU

Rep.o

f

HongKong

Taiwan,

(13.0)

(12.7)

Korea

SAR,C

hina

Pr

ovinceof

China

(10.2)

(8.6

)

(8.5

)

So

uthAfrica

73.2

0.6

7.4

23.3

68.3

EU

China

US

SaudiArabia

Japan

(32.2)

(13.1)

(7.8

)

(5.0

)

(4.9

)

Sourceofstatistics:WTO.

9780198085386 Brics Report_01_Ch-01.indd 38 26/03/12 12:50 PM


61/204

overview o brics 39

. B,

( 1.25).

Table 1.25 BRICS S W I S

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010

BRICS 2.5 6.0 6.1 8.4 10.5 11.0 12.5

Bz 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.8

R 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.0I 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.5 3.1

C 0.5 2.0 2.3 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.1

S A 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5

Source: UNCAD.

Note: N .

trade linkages: increasing south-to-south tradeD f -BRICS

, ,

S--S

. I C

, , R,

Bz, S A ,

, . H,

( 1.26).

private transers

R US$ 316

2009, 6 US$ 336

2008, f


62/204

Table1.26

ExportLinkagesoB

RICS

(US$billion)

Ex

portsromRussia

Brazil

China

In

dia

SouthArica

AdvancedEconomies

EuroArea

19

90

20

00

0.6

5.2

1

.1

0.03

60.6

34.1

20

09

1.4

16.1

4

.8

0.2

138.1

92.3

Ex

portsromIndia

Brazil

China

Ru

ssia

SouthArica

AdvancedEconomies

EuroArea

19

90

0.0

0.0

0.0

11.1

3.0

20

00

0.3

0.8

0

.9

0.3

27.4

7.6

20

09

2.2

10.2

0

.9

1.9

79.0

26.3

Ex

portsromChina

Brazil

India

Ru

ssia

SouthArica

AdvancedEconomies

EuroArea

19

90

0.1

0.2

0.0

52.0

5.1

20

00

1.2

1.6

2

.2

1.0

208.3

30.6

20

09

15.9

29.7

17

.5

7.4

858.5

174.4

Ex

portsromBrazil

C

hina

India

Ru

ssia

SouthArica

AdvancedEconomies

EuroArea

19

90

0.4

0.2

0.2

22.9

8.1

20

00

1.1

0.38

0

.4

0.3

34.6

13.0

20

09

21.0

3.4

25

1.3

65.1

28.5

Ex

portsromSouthArica

C

hina

India

Ru

ssia

Brazil

AdvancedEconomies

EuroArea

19

90

20

00

0.3

0.4

0

.03

0.2

15.7

6.2

20

09

5.6

2.0

0

.2

0.4

30.9

10.7

Source:DirectoryofTradeStatistics,IMF.

No

te:Notavailable.


63/204

overview o brics 41

. T BRICS

. I C 2009, US$

49 US$ 48 , . F I, -

f, . R

-

; ,

R 2009 US$ 19 ,

7 . U ,

I C,

R Bz ( 1.27).

Table 1.27 BRICS S G R I( )

1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 2008 2009 R

GDP RBz 0.8 3.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.3

R 0.0 2.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.4

I 3.5 6.1 9.8 8.1 9.7 11.3 11.9 3.9

C 0.3 0.9 4.0 8.8 10.1 10.9 11.5 1.0

S A 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3

Source: W B.

current account

T BRICS ,

,

. C

,

R . I, S A,

Bz f ( 1.28).


64/204


65/204

overview o brics 43

T BRICS

(C R),

f (Bz), f (I),

f (S A). O ,

R,

BRICS .

brics and capital lows

T

BRICS . G -

.

G q

z

EME .T

EME,

( 1.29).

Table 1.29 S G FDI I

( )

1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 2009 2010BRICS 2.2 13.8 5.8 11.7 16.0 16.7 17.8

Bz 0.5 1.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.2 3.9

R 0.6 0.2 1.3 4.3 3.1 3.3

I 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.0 2.0

C 1.7 11.0 2.9 7.4 6.2 8.0 8.5

S A 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1

Source: UNCAD.


66/204


67/204

Table1.30

Cross-countryMove

mentoFDIFlows

(US$billion)

Country

FDIInows

FDIOutows

1990

20

00

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

1990

2000

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

BR

ICS

Brazil

1.0

32

.8

15.1

34.6

45.1

25.9

48.4

0.6

2.3

2.5

7.1

20.5

10.1

11.5

Ru

ssia

0.0

2

.7

12.9

55.1

75.0

36.5

41.2

3.2

12.8

45.9

55.6

43.7

51.7

India

0.2

3

.6

7.6

25.3

42.5

35.6

24.6

0.0

0.5

3.0

17.2

19.4

15.9

14.6

China

3.5

40

.7

72.4

83.5

108.3

95.0

105.7

0.8

0.9

12.3

22.5

52.2

56.5

68.0

SouthArica

0.1

0

.9

6.6

5.7

9.0

5.4

1.6

0.0

0.3

0.9

3.0

3.1

1.2

0.5

Ad

vancedEconomies

Japan

1.8

8

.3

2.8

22.5

24.4

11.9

1.3

50.8

31.6

45.8

73.5

128.0

74.7

56.3

UK

30.5

118

.8

176.0

196.4

91.5

71.1

45.9

17.9

233.4

80.8

272.4

161.1

44.4

11.0

US

48.4

314

.0

104.8

216.0

306.4

152.9

228.2

31.0

142.6

15.4

393.5

308.3

282.7

328.9

Source:UNCAD.

No

te:Notavailable.


68/204

Table1.31

Cross-countryMove

mentoPortolioFlows

(US$billion)

Country

PortolioInvestmentInows

P

ortolioInvestmentOutows

1990

2000

2005

2007

2008

2009

1990

2000

2005

2007

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

BR

ICS

Brazil

0.6

8.7

6.7

48.1

0.8

46.2

0.1

1.7

1.8

0.3

1.9

4.1

Ru

ssia

9.9

0.7

15.5

27.6

8.2

0.4

10.7

10.0

7.8

10.4

India

0.0

2.5

12.2

35.0

15.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

China

0.0

7.3

21.2

21.0

9.9

0.2

11.3

26.2

2.3

32.7

So

uthArica

0.3

1.8

5.7

21.9

13.7

7.6

13.4

0.3

3.7

3.4

6.7

1.9

Ad

vancedEconomies

Japan

46.7

47.4

183.1

196.6

103.0

56.3

37.8

83.4

196.4

123.5

189.6

160.2

UK

23.8

268.1

237.0

406.7

363.9

284.0

30.0

97.2

273.4

179.6

199.6

241.1

US

22.0

436.6

832.0

1154.7

527.7

376.6

28.8

127.9

257.5

396.0

117.4

549.4

Source:IMF/InternationalFinancialStatistics.

No

te:Notavailable.


69/204


70/204


71/204

overview o brics 49

exchange rate regime and convertibility

T

f -

. D f

, BRICS

( 1.34).

T Bz

,

, f ,

, q

J 1999. S , Bz R$ 2.26

USD 31 D 2010. T

,

, , .

R f z

, 1 N

2008, R

-- - . T

, -

. T B R -

. T j j B R

R

. T B R

. I 2007 R z-

.


72/204


73/204

overview o brics 51

I I, RBI

f , f

. I

, ,

, z -

RBI.

C 1

J 1994. I J 2005, C RMB

. T RMB

, ,

. C,

US$-RMB - 0.5

C F E S.

S A , -

. R -

z , inter alia, , -

, z . T N SARB z . T SARB

f R, -

z

.

A BRICS, S A

A VIII, 2, 3, 4 I M

F A A 15 S 1973. I


74/204

52 the brics report

A VIII A A

IMF 1994, R J 1996, C D1996, Bz N 1999

. R

, -

, Bz 1999

. R -

z 1990,

1998 f , -f-

.

H, R -

. C I

z.

Financial Market Performance

Stock Exchange

D 19992010, BRICS -

, . A f-

q 2000

2008. W , Bz C q

R, I, S A. E

, q BRICS

( 1.35).

D , (PE)

BRICS C

I Bz, R, S A. I 2010,

PE BRICS I.


75/204

Table1.35

StockMarketPerormanceoBRICSCountries

Country

Index

Movement(percentchange)

PERatio

1999

2005

2009

2010

1999

2005

2009

2010

1999

2005

2009

2010

Brazil

889.5

1,569.4

0

3,624.50

61

.6

50

121.3

18.6

12.39

17

13.8

Ru

ssia

177.71

112

5

1444.1

201

.6

83.3

128.6

8.3

11.1

8.3

India

209.5

382.9

468.5

89

.1

40.2

100.5

22.8

20.17

21.8

22.4

China

33.5

29.3

64.8

10

.2

15.6

58.8

15.78

15.6

14.6

So

uthArica

7806

1643

8

24996

74

44

28.6

14.4

21.8

18.9

Source:BloombergandMorganStanleyCapitalInternational.

No

tes:Russia:RSStockExchang

eandsharesincludedinRSIndexcalculationbase.

Notavailable.


76/204

54 the brics report

T

BRICS , , Bz SA 2000 2006

. A R, ,

, , C

I

( 1.36).

T -z GDP BRICS

. T 3.6 1990 Bz,

74 2010. T -

I 12.2 93.4

, . C R,

, . I C,

z--GDP 1995 5.8 , j 81 2010. T

R 4.0 67.9 , . A

BRICS, S A z -

z GDP 2010 ( 1.37).

T f

( )

BRICS. T j 115.9 C 1995 229.6 2009. R

108.5 2009 36.9 2000.

S, I 65.9 1990

119.3 2009. Bz

S A f j

, , 23.6 73.9 1990 2009

Bz 7.0 57.3 S A 1995


77/204

Table1.36

otalListedDomest

icCompanies

Country

1990

1995

2000

20

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Brazil

581

543

459

381

392

442

432

377

373

Ru

ssia

170

249

296

309

328

314

279

345

India

2435

5398

5937

4763

4796

4887

4921

4955

4987

China

0

323

1086

1387

1440

1530

1604

1700

2063

SouthArica

732

640

616

388

401

422

425

410

407

Source:Standard&Poors,EmergingStockMarketsFactbookandsupplementalS&Pdata.

No

tes:Listeddomesticcompanies

aredomesticallyincorporatedcompanieslistedonthecountrysstockexchangesattheendo

theyear.

T

isindicatordoesnotincludeinvestmentcompanies,mutualunds,orothercollectiveinvestmentvehicles.

Notavailable.


78/204

Table1.37

MarketCapitalizatio

noListedCompanies

(percentoGDP)

Country

1990

1995

2000

20

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Brazil

3.6

19.2

35.1

53

.8

65.3

100.3

35.7

73.2

74

Ru

ssia

0

4

15

71

.8

106.6

115.6

23.9

70.5

67.9

India

12.2

35.7

32.2

68

.3

89.5

46.4

53.2

85.4

93.4

China

0

5.8

48.5

34

.9

91.3

178.2

61.8

100.3

81

SouthArica

123

186

118

229

274

291.3

178.5

249.3

278.4

Source:Standard&Poors,EmergingStockMarketsFactbookandsupplementalS&Pdata,andWo

rldBankandOECDGDPestimates.

No

te:Marketcapitalization(alsok

nownasmarketvalue)isthesh

arepricetimesthenumberosharesoutstanding.

Listeddomesticcompaniesaredo

mesticallyincorporatedcompanieslistedonthecountrysstockexchangesattheendothey

ear.Listed

companiesdoesnotincludeinvestmentcompanies,mutualunds

,orothercollectiveinvestment

vehicles.


79/204

overview o brics 57

2009. A BRICS

2010 ( 1.38).T

BRICS ,

. T 2008, ,

( 1.39).

C f BRICS

, q

19992010 f. T - BRICS f f

( 1.40).

T f

. I

- ,

,

GDP . T

BRICS 0.122

S A 2008. H, - ,

0.010.03 BRICS -

( 1.41).

Financial Sector

T Bz f -

, --- ,

. I 2002, Bz C B

Bz P S f

- . T - Bz


80/204

Table1.38

Stocksraded,urnoverRatio

(percent)

Country

1990

1995

2000

20

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Brazil

23.6

47.8

43.5

38

.3

42.9

56.2

74.3

73.9

66.4

Ru

ssia

0

0

36.9

39

64.1

58.9

59.2

108.5

85.7

India

65.9

10.5

133.6

94

.2

93.1

84

85.2

119.3

75.6

China

0

115.9

158.3

82

.5

102

180.1

121.3

229.6

164.4

SouthArica

7

34

39

48.8

55

61.6

57.3

39.6

Source:Standard&Poors,EmergingStockMarketsFactbookandsupplementalS&Pdata.

No

tes:urnoverratioisthetotalvalueosharestradedduringtheperioddividedbytheaveragemarketcapitalizationortheperio

d.Average

marketcapitalizationiscalculated

astheaverageotheend-o-periodvaluesorthecurrentandthepreviousperiod.

Notavailable.


81/204

Table1.39

EquityValuationMeasures:DividendYieldRatio

s

Country

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Brazil

9.34

2.95

3.18

4.93

5.51

3.46

4.43

3.9

3

.1

2.2

4.6

2.9

2.7

Ru

ssia

0.72

0.14

0.92

1.11

1.87

2.38

3.12

1.6

1

1.2

3.5

1.4

1.5

India

2

1.25

1.59

2.03

1.81

1.47

1.53

1.3

1

0.7

1.8

0.9

0.9

China

3.71

3.14

0.95

1.95

2.41

2.19

2.26

2.7

1

.5

1.2

3.1

1.9

2.2

SouthArica

2.8

3.5

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.5

2

.4

2.7

4.5

2.7

2.3

Source:DataromMorganStanleyCapitalInternational.

No

te:Notavailable.


82/204

Table1.40

EmergingMarketExternalFinancing:otalBonds,Equities,andLoans

(inUS$million)

Country

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Brazil

14,21412,952

21,45419,266

11,1191

2,909

15,83427,48631,219

73,21830,843

39,601

67,703

Ru

ssia

13,156

167

8,313

2,831

8,5351

2,239

22,53237,00459,165

84,53661,230

53,940

45,389

India

1,434

2,376

3,428

2,066

1,360

3,776

13,06021,66029,534

60,51337,561

58,320

115,929

China

6,975

3,462

9,227

4,255

4,2561

2,843

22,85038,80550,040

75,67728,261

66,829

79,879

SouthArica

3,423

8,699

4,647

4,058

7,837

5,413

6,26612,701

19,904

2,816

7,980

7,460

Source:DataprovidedbytheBond,Equity,andLoanDatabaseotheInternationalMonetaryFu

ndsourcedromCapitalData.

No

te:Notavailable.


83/204

overview o brics 61

,

f . I

( ). T C B Bz

B II Bz

B III . A

f , BRICS

.

I R,

q.

R -z -

. C q

Table 1.41 I S BRICS E

C 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 20081 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Life Insurance Premium Volume/GDP

Bz 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.015

R 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

I 0.010 0.012 0.017 0.026 0.041 0.040 0.039

C 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.018

S A 0.077 0.110 0.146 0.108 0.130 0.126 0.122Non-Life Insurance Premium Volume/GDP

Bz 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

R 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02

I 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

C 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

S A 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

Source: W B.Note: N .


84/204

62 the brics report

. Pf

, . A N 2010,

225 z .

I I, j -

-

q q

, .

T f

, -

. O , -

, -

(NPA) -

. F, ,

f f .

S C, C

, , -

, f

.

, C , -

f .

T S A

q q . A

, S A q z

f

q . T S A


85/204

overview o brics 63

, q ,

. f ,

: f , f

, , -

.

A -

f . P

S A M,

S II E. I ,

2011. A

OC

, , q .

P B III q-

q , QIS

-q q

q . A z -

f .

C N SARB. A -

W B/F I

j.

banking sector perormance

C-- BRICS

,


86/204


87/204

Table1.42

PrudentialIndicatorsotheBankingSectorinBRICS

BankCapitaltoAssets

Regula

toryCapitaltoRiskWeightedAssets

Country

1999

2005

2009

2010

1999

2005

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Brazil

10.4

11.2

10.9

17.9

18.9

17.6

Ru

ssia

14.3

12.8

15.7

18.1

15

20.9

18.9

India

5.9

9.8

10.3

11.2

12.8

13.2

China

5.2

4.4

5.6

11.2

2.5

11.4

So

uthArica

7.9

6.7

12.7

14.1

14.4

Sources:Nationalauthorities;IMF

staestimates.

No

te:Notavailable.


88/204

Table1.43

BankProftablyIndicatorsinBRICS

(percent)

ReturnonAssets

ReturnonEquity

Non-perormingLoan/

otalLoan

Countries

1999

2005

2009

2010

1999

2005

2009

2010

1999

2005

2009

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Brazil

3.2

2.4

3.2

30.1

22.1

29.3

3.5

4.2

3.1

Ru

ssia

0.3

3.2

0.7

1.6

4.0

24.2

4.9

10

13.4

2.6

9.5

9.5

India

5.9

0.9

1

13.3

12.3

14.7

5.2

2.3

China

5.2

0.6

0.8

15.1

15.1

28.5

8.6

1.6

So

uthArica

1.2

0.9

15.2

15.9

15.4

1.5

5.9

5.9

Source:GlobalFinancialStabilityR

eport,IMF.

No

te:Notavailable.


89/204

overview o brics 67

19 . T 2

1,388 -, - .

S 1994,

, f -

. I J 2010, 140 ,

f 70 .

S- Bz f

. G ,, -

,

q . F,

BNDES, Bz D

B, -

.A -2009, C 3,857

193,000

2,845,000 . T f-

RMB 78.8

RMB 74.2 , ;

RMB 61.2 ; RMB 42.56 . T

- (NPL) RMB

497.3 , NPL 1.58 ,

155 . I 2009, f

RMB 668.43 . I

z, I C B

C (ICBC), C C B (CCB), B


90/204

68 the brics report

C (BOC) . T f

, , ICBC, CCB, BOC, ABC, BOCOM, 50.89 59.86

- f. T NPL

1.54 , 1.50 , 1.52 , 2.91 1.36

, .

R f . T R -

: () C B

R (CBR); () - ; () , () , () . I

2006 j (90.1 )

R ,

(55.5 ) -- - (34 ).

N- 10

.O R

z; 1 D 2010 1,023

z, 225

. T z f ,

30 70

.

R -, S VB. S-

48

D 2010. T -

A B, MDM B, PSzB, US.

Mj

R B, C,

R, S G, U C.


91/204

overview o brics 69

P R f .

A 60 (42 ) f , ,

, .

T I f ,

,

. B

,

f , , f , - f ,

, , . T RBI

-

B R A, 1949 R B I

A, 1934. T RBI -I f -

R B I A, 1934. Cq RBI A 1997,

N-B F C (NBFC)

. I

, RBI , -

N B A R

D (NABARD). I

I R D A(IRDA) S E B I (SEBI),

.

T I f

f

, , ,

1990

.


92/204

70 the brics report

A, f

f . T

f Pancha Sutra f : ()

q ; ()

; ()

(, f, , f); ()

f ; () -

f . T , , 19912

19978 19978 .

T (RRB) -

. W

, - RRB

. I , G I,

NABARD, - , RRB S

2005. A , 137 RRB

31 O 2006 43 RRB ( 18

15 ). T RRB

196 102. F -

G I

.S A f

(ABSA B L., S B S

A L., FR B L., N L., I B

L.), 91.6

2010. T f S

A ,

f .


93/204

overview o brics 71

G

S 2009, M 2010.

T ,

-- 2.5 D 2010.

C , ,

q . T ,

f . B 2010. I -

5.8 2010,

5.9 2009 j 3.2 2008.

A ,

5.7 6 A 2009.

C - 0.1

.T q S A

9.5 , 8

B II q. T q

13

2008 14.1 2009 14.9

2010. 1 q 10.2

2008 11 2009 11.8 D 2010 ( B III 7

q).

N, S A -

q,

-

. T


94/204

72 the brics report

f. W

q , z f

q . S , SARB -

q q , 5

, j - .

S A ,

- ,

z - . I

q , S A ,

B

C B S (BCBS), z

f S

A. W S A

fz, q f

, j .

A ,

f .

accessibility o inancial services

T

. S -

, ,

(AM) ,

--GDP --GDP . B

2005 2010,


95/204


96/204

Table1.44

FinancialServicesAccessibilityinBRICS

Brazil

Russia

India

China

SouthArica

Indicator

2005

20

09

2010

2005

200920

102005

2009

20102005

2009

2010

2005

200

9

2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

1

12

13

14

15

16

Numbero

2.08

2.37

2.33

23.86

27.8629.14

1.91

2.64

2.8

commercial

bankbranches

per1,000sq.km

Numbero

13.06

3.95

13.76

9.69

10.4310.91

7.19

9.37

10.1

commercial

bankbranches

per100,000adults

Outstanding

34

46.32

47.5118.66

33.12

47.31

60.11

123.21

137.11

41.31

44.6841.62

depositswith

commercialbanks

(percentoGDP)

Outstandingloans

18.09

26.2829.04

26.46

50.76

31.21

43.62

85.33

107.62

62.55

75.2769.65

ro

mcommercial

banks(percent

o

GDP)

Source:IMF.

No

te:Notavailable.


97/204


98/204

Table1.46

DomesticCreditPro

videdbyBankingSector

(percentoGDP)

Country

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Brazil

89.3

58.9

74.6

81.5

86.6

92.2

96.9

97.5

Ru

ssia

0

25.5

24.7

20.6

22.4

25.5

25.1

33.8

India

51.4

44.1

53

60.1

60.9

60.8

68.2

69.4

China

89.4

87.7

119.7

135.6

133.5

127.8

120.8

145.2

So

uthArica

107

150.5

162.5

209

192.9

195.2

172.2

183.5

Source:IMF,InternationalFinancialStatisticsanddatafles,andWorldBankandOECDGDPe

stimates.

No

te:Domesticcreditprovidedbythebankingsectorincludesallcredittovarioussectorsonagrossbasis,withtheexceptiono

creditto

thecentralgovernment,whichisnet.Tebankingsectorincludesmonetaryauthoritiesanddepo

sitmoneybanks,aswellasotherbanking

institutionswheredataareavailable(includinginstitutionsthatdonotaccepttranserabledepositsbutdoincursuchliabilitiesastimeand

savingsdeposits).Examplesooth

erbankinginstitutionsaresavingsandmortgageloaninstitutio

nsandbuildingandloanassociations.


99/204

overview o brics 77

Concluding Observations

S

BRICS ,

. I Bz -

z

. T Bz

()

EME C; () BRICS C I; () -

q , ,

f ; ()

f .

I R,

,

z , - . F I, j ()

, () ,

() , ()

, ,

.

S C,

. I C - ,

- -

, f

q .

-, , , f

C

. T


100/204

78 the brics report

, , ,

. T ,

, , ,

- .

I S A,

q.

P N G P

f q

. P

, -

, , -

, - ,

, z.

L , , q ,

.

, BRICS

,

.

T BRICS f f ,

-

BRICS

.


101/204

Impact of the Financial Crisis

on BRICS

Introduction

T g f gud

kd u dju v ud w -

v d d v d y y . T

udd xv vg d w dqu gu,

k f uv, wd d g, d

u y dy ud-u k d

w f v. T w g, w w

u dv y y, d d v

qug uu . T g vg gu -

d w ggv kg y ug f u d

ud-g k ud ud-u u- gg.

Tu, u - d - v

d u x u

y y, f v, d guy .

2


102/204


103/204

impact o the inancial crisis on brics 81

d dd v fd. I

kg, dd dvd w d ug gd uy dvg

, w d d u.

Ag BRICS, g f ud

US-d v k L B

S 2008. T kg BRICS -

d vy w. I Bz, uy d k k

w ug uu g v dwdd, dd dy x dd u, d x d dd. T

x k dd u d gw y -

g g 0.6 GDP 2009 ( 2.1). I

g d, Bz x d US$ 160.6 2007,

u 11.8 GDP d 1.18 wd x. I

2009, Bz g d gd fgu US$ 281

w, du 24.3 v 2008 wUS$ 371 w dd. T d w d u

g f , w d du

d guu d d v

x dd gd d v.

I d , f k Ru z du

k v d gf quy k

2007. Svg d du w (CDS) d judy v udd . T udd g xg

x ggd y S 2008

d Ru k d f k dg g uy

xu, xg u u. Ey ,

kg y w u ud dd y d u-

w d k u. Sv d-zd k (K F,

Svyz Bk, Gx Bk, d Sk) d ud y


104/204


105/204

MarketCapitalization

35.7

73.2

23.9

70.5

53.2

85.4

61.8

100.3

178.5

249.3

(%

GDP)

PE

Ratio**

7.9

17

72.4

128.6

10.5

21.8

10.3

21.1

9.6

21.8

NPA/TotalLoan

3.8

9.7

2.4

1.6

2.3

2.3

2.4

1.58

5.9

5.8

Source:IFSandWorldBankdatab

ase.

Note:Sign+meansroubleappreciation,signmeansdepreciation.

*R

ealeectiveexchangerateoth

eroubleagainstthebasketcom

prisingcurrenciesomajortrad

epartners(annualaveragerate

o

change).

**

RTSStockExchange,BankoRussiacalculations,andsharesincludedinRTSIndexcalculationbase;Bloomberg.


106/204

84 the brics report

v v w d-S d d-

O 2008.I , Id y d

vy ud, u wd wdw GDP u-

zd gw ud 7.5 f 6.0

d 2008, fd y

uug . T gf

x- uug xd x

dd k. Fu, g uug x (42 ) w ud y d uu, x

d x du, g d jwy, d d, w

y-v, w j x -

ud y - du (SSI). Tu, x

dd k d g uu d y

u du, w d d g d u-

dd.T f C k

d x dd, w u d

wdw, d u u, d g uy.

Suu vd. w d

wdy d d ud y fgu u

f C y. T f du

y u (w d) d du vu-ddd (w vu d). T d -

y u gd u 10 vy ,

u d 2008, dd d-

y. T uk d d g f d

v C f d k, w

w y d wg: () T k dx

d . Dug x My O


107/204


2008, Sg k xg dx dd v 50

. () R uuy dd. Bw Juy2008 d Fuy 2009, vg dx udg

70 du--g C y u 2 uu-

vy. () My uy d uy gw ud

. F My Nv 2008, y--y M2 gw

y 3.3 d uy gw d

d w. (v) F Juy 2008 Fuy 2009, RMB

v xg dy y 14.5 , ug uvu C x. T d C

x d v d d, d d

2008, 15 x f w d du uu

v u dw.

I Su A, w, w d ud

uk fg Su A g u u df

y dg u , quky ud g uw,ug v v w d v Su A

k dw g . B x d vu

ud, w Su A x

d wkd, ug w uwgd y

w , ug v d.

T k k, wkd dy y uw

-d d dy y g quy w, g g My 2008 u w d w

S d Nv 2008 w qu g-

g k.

T g f d gf uu

BRICS . I GDP gw, Ru w-

d gw u wg

xd y d . Bz, w d


108/204


109/204


u, g du gw. A u d

uy w quky d, w-d -

y y wd w d

ud. Bz g ud, udg dqu v g xg v d ud f

y, w ky dug d -

g uy g d .

vd dqu d qudy Bz, u -

g v qu w xd. T ud j

dd qudy quv 4 GDP ( 2.3).

Hwv, dd qudy w d

Table 2.2 Sz Dy Mu F C

(g GDP)

Cuy 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4

BRICS

Bz 0 0.6 0.6

Ru 0 4.1 1.3

Id 0.6 0.6 0.6

C 0.4 3.1 2.7Su A 2.3 3.0 2.1

Advanced Countries

Iy 0 0.2 0.1

J 0.3 2.4 1.8

K 1.1 3.6 4.7

Ud Kgd 0.2 1.6 0

Ud S 1.1 2.0 1.8Source: IMF S P N, F A D, I

My Fud, Juy 2009.


110/204

Table 2.3 Mu y C Bk

Cuy My MuBz Bz ud g v v qu,

wg k w v qu

-ud u wg L B

d. I u, qudy

-k k, k dud v

qu u dg g qud k

qud k. By dug qudy v

dug , k w

vd f y y.Ru T u z kg y du-

g u qu 2008 d vd gf

qudy w kg xg

u g fg. Sg A 2008,

gv ud x udgy ud k, w

C Bk Ru (CBR) vdd v-wdg

y qudy , udg g- udd

d uzd , w d vdd

ud d w. I 20089 Bk Ru

dd g k ud u -

fg d xdd

ud y -k , u y ,

d , d u gu. T CBR

d gu -k dg quyg k,

vg v u-

y w wdw. I M 2009, k -

z w ud d xg

d gv d. Adju

w v Bk Ru g f . T fg w d

d 2008. T Bk Ru -

d du fg :

13 A 2009 7.75 Ju 2010.

T CBR y wd qud v

S d O 2008.

Id T y ud qudy dju y

(LAF) w dud y 400 , 9

5 . T y v ud LAF w


111/204


112/204

90 the brics report

g f u, u w dd d

qudy w y. d u ud d kg , k (BCB) wd

Cd Gu Fud (FGC, kw Bz Fundo Garantidor

de Crdito), Bz d gu y vy

udd d u gud, ud dd y

gu y d w y -

d qudy d du k g.

Iv j qudy g uy k -d g US$ 14.5 k, xg

w US$ 33 d u US$ 24.4

vd - fg x. A

dd, BCB d u d

u Juy 2009 d d 5 . u d du-

, x uud gd (IPI) v, ud

, gd, d udg u wgfy dud , , z. I dd

u, x f (IOF)

gd d ud w dud 3.0

1.5 . A u, w

-wd k, d j y uy BNDES,

-wd N Dv Bk, w d k

dg y gy d uu d wd ug w d x d du

d u gd. T u ud

gw vy Bz. Fy, O 2008, US

k ( Fd) gd BCB w US$ 30

w , w w dw u.

Ru u w g f uu kg

G-20. T xy f d


113/204


gv xdu d ud u gv (-)

df 8.25 GDP 2008 15 GDP 2009. I d 2008 g y

y w u f y d u uw.

T Bk Ru d y y d

u gw: w A 2009 d Ju 2010,

fg w dud y 525 7.75 . Du

ggv f d y y g, Ru

f gd ud g . Tug y d y 7.8 2009, vd

y f qu 2010 w GDP gg

gw 3.5 . I Ru, ud g

vu vdd wy, y u f

x , u z df.

T z ud w dw dw wu y gf k

x vuy. A u, v g d vy, Ru gd

w w u d (ud 11 GDP),

uk dvd W udg

Eu z d US.

Id y w d g

g ud k d y d d

k ug y d u qudy dd gg vy d. I u, jv

w uud w f : f,

u qudy ; d, ug g

xg qudy; d d, y wk

wud k d dvy k d

gw. Bd g w y g f -

dw, y vvd g g


114/204

92 the brics report

- g d du- uy. T u

jv v y kg Gv Id d RBI g d-S 2008.

T f y u udk y Id

f uu kg dug d 20089 ud

x u, ugg v uu d d

xdu v d u. T x-

y f ud U Budg 200910, w

w d g kd d gw y d g z g y. T -

u u uu, du d ,

u y, d w ddvgd

u w d gfy. Add xd-

u ug 3 GDP w vdd ug

uy dd g dug OD 2008

d Fuy 2009. T y y w g qudy y ug v u u

ug y ( v [CRR], v , d

uy qudy [SLR]) d k , d

uv u, , g f

SIDBI d EXIM Bk d g k ud w

gd vg d k wg. T u u/

qudy jd w R 5,850 .C dd v f y d dy y

y y, d u kg u dy d

vy d gw. T d d -

g kg w v dwu

d dy gw. I w dgd dd u-

u g C dv, d

u gw , d quy d


115/204


du d y d

ud gw g u. F, d ddd v wy d g u

dd dvg gw d

dv; d, ug v uu

uy d dd dv; d,

d v duy d -

y dd v d u

dv; d u, wkd -ud dv d d v dv. v

v jv g gw d xd

d dd d uu y, P Bk

C (PBC) d dy y y y y

dg x d v u g f u-

gw, ug ggg y d

d uy fd d dv. T PBC dud k , y d y,

u u qudy kg y g, d

z k x. I 2011, k k

gw wdw d g u g ,

C ud v f y d djud d-

y y y y ud . Pv f

y vy d d dd, d uug, d vd vd. T

w ddd ug u ud y

y .

S S 2008, PBC wd k

d d dg f u fv ,

4.14 2.25 , d 7.47 5.31

, vy. T d d dg w f


116/204

94 the brics report

u d PBC w u w; u, d

uy v d x v w PBC wu 1.89 d 0.99 1.62 d 0.72

, vy. T 1-y k qudy dg

(- ) w u 4.68 3.33 ; 1-y

k dg u d v w u

3.96 2.88 ; d du w u

4.32 1.80 . u u qudy

kg y, PBC u qud v u .Sfy, v qu g f u-

w u y 2 g uuvy, w

f u w u y 4 g uuvy.

A , PBC d quv g

f u d dg, gudd f u

d uy, d z d uu,

wg dd w ugdgw . T PBC gd d v

guu, u , , d du-zd ,

y g, -d u, u-

x, d dd v, w ug

g gv v j w gd

y .

I Su A, f d y dd uy y wg f df

gv vu dd, g gv dg

d y dug . Sud u f dug

- d (20027) vdd Su A w

f vd uu dug 20089 . T z

udg df d dd 5.7 GDP 1995

uu u 1 GDP 20078, w d


117/204


du gv d ud 47 GDP

y 27.1 20089. A u, gv w u dg u v d uu

Brics Report

Documents