BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO Casillas González Héctor F. González Lira.

BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO.

BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO

Casillas González Héctor F.González Lira E. Raymundo

López Hernández Ruben

OCTOBER 20 – 22, 200418 th International EMME/2 Users’ Conference

Mexico City, Mexico


I. Introduction

II. Study Overview

III. Corridor Analysis

IV. Models of Analysis

V. Demand Results

VI. Demand Forecast

VII. Conclusions

I. Introduction

II. Study Overview

III. Corridor Analysis

IV. Models of Analysis

V. Demand Results

VI. Demand Forecast

VII. Conclusions

IndexIndex


Corridor Characteristics:

• Cancún is located in the Municipality of Bénito Juárez in Quintana Roo, Mexico. Tourism is the principal economic activity

• Population of 492,258 inhab. in 1,644

km².

• Blvd. Kukulkán is on the east side of the city and communicate the city with the Tourist Zone.

Zone of StudyIntroductionIntroduction


Objectives:

• Estimate the number of vehicles using

the bridges of Bojórquez, Bonfil y

Nichupté.• Estimate social benefits and fees

income.

Methodology

Results:• Transit corridor analysis• Demand Characterization• Transit and fees income estimation of

each Bridge.• Economic y financial evaluation

Study OverviewStudy Overview

Análisis de la Demanda.

Información Documental.

Información de Campo.

Oferta. Demanda.

VOT Modelo de selección modal.

Pronóstico de aforos e ingresos.

Evaluación Financiera

Evaluación Económica

DemandAnalysis

DocumentalInformation

FieldInformation

Supply Demand

VOT Mode selection model.

Transit and fees income estimation

FinancialEvaluation

EconomicEvaluation


Bojórquez Bridge:Length: 0.80 kmInvestment: 181 - 487 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction

Bonfil Bridge:Length: 9.6 kmInvestment: 945 - 1,576 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction

Nichupté Bridge:Length: 7.2 kmInvestment: 752 - 1,253 million of pesos and 2 lanes per direction

Location of the three BridgesStudy OverviewStudy Overview


Point of study “Las Perlas”, weekday (Automobiles)

According to the observed demand, the zones between “Plaza Caracol” and “Plaza Kukulkán”, bring the biggest rate of trips.

Corridor Analysis

Point of study “Nizuc”, weekday (Automobiles)

At this point, the trips are between the Central Market (Ejido Bonfil) and the tourist zone, almost was identify trips between the airport and the “Riviera Maya”.


Models of Analysis

In this project we just analyze the highway mode, for this reason we don’t use a modal assignment model, we only use a path selection. The choice is obtained when we apply fees to each project. The selection of the potential users of the bridges are estimate with a Logit multinomial probabilistic model, which utility functions on path choice are estimated through declared preference survey. The percentage of potential users of the project on each fee level is estimated with the next equation:

ojectUwithoutprUproject

Uproject

n

i

Ui

ee

ëprojectP

Ui

ëiP

)()(

where:P(i)= Probability of use the route iUi = Result of the utility of the function from the selection iIn this case, we need to estimate the utility function of each selection, with or without project. That means estimate the fees and delays of each option.


Demand Results. Bojórquez Bridge

• 830 veh-peak period on week day and 1,112 vehicles in weekend (20,119 vehicles AADT )

• Fees of $3 pesos for cars and $5 pesos for trucks

• Used by through traffic in “Punta Cancún” (67% of the actual demand)

• Its works like a bypass of Punta Cancun


Demand Results. Bonfil Bridge

•512 veh-peak period on week day and 774 in weekend (2,482 vehicles AADT)•Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $27 pesos per trucks•Increase the capacity of trips to the tourist zone.•The principal change of volume is in the south with an average of 70% and 7% in the north access.


Demand Results. Nichupté Bridge

•1,003 veh-peak period on week day and 1,521 in weekend (4,670 vehicles AADT) •Fees of $24 pesos for cars and $28 pesos for trucks•The construction of this bridge means a reduction of 55% of the transit in the north of the Blvd. Kukulcán •Also means a reduction of 17% of the transit y the south access


Demand Forecast

9,45613,037

17,52420,817

23,48025,804

27,877

20,119

27,739

37,286

44,292

49,958

54,90259,312

4,670 6,0617,896

10,81213,667

17,572

23,056

2,482 3,005 4,135 4,3826,272

8,517 10,018

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Bojórquez con caseta de peaje Bojórquez sin caseta de peaje Puente Nichupté Puente Bonfil


• With the results of the transit assignment, the best fees and the results of the economic and financial evaluation for each bridge, we could say that the Bojórquez bridge is the best investment.

• Its important to keep watching the transit in the tourist zone for determinate the moment that the Nichupté Bridge will be available, beginning with two lanes with the possibility of widening to four lanes.

• Its not recommendable the construction of the Bonfil Bridge at least in the next 30 years.

Conclusions

BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO. BOULEVARD KUKULCÁN DEMAND STUDY, CANCÚN, QUINTANA ROO Casillas González Héctor F. González Lira.

Documents

boulevard kukulcn demand

demand results

demand forecast slide

observed demand

actual demand

bridges study overview

punta cancn

bojrquez bridge