1 Bistability of the climate around the habitable zone: a thermodynamic investigation Valerio Lucarini Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg Dept. Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading valerio.lucarini@uni-hamburg,de R. Boschi, E. Kirk, N. Iro, S. Pascale, F. Ragone Lorenz Center, 11/02/2014
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Bistability of the climate around the habitable zone: a thermodynamic
investigationValerio Lucarini
Meteorological Institute, University of HamburgDept. Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading
valerio.lucarini@uni-hamburg,de
R. Boschi, E. Kirk, N. Iro, S. Pascale, F. Ragone
Lorenz Center, 11/02/2014
Energy & Forcing – Perfect Model
NESS→Transient → NESS Applies to the whole climate and to to all climatic subdomains for atmosphere τ is small, always quasi-equilibrated
Forcing
τ
Total warming
2
Energy and GW – Actual GCMs
Not only bias: bias control ≠ bias final state
Forcing τ
3
L. and Ragone, 2011
Bias depends on climate state! Dissipation & Water
Steady State – Meridional Transports
4
TAO
20% uncertaintyamong models
L. and Ragone, 2011
5
Energies
Kinetic energy budget
Moist Static Potential Energy budget
Total Energy Budget
WDKPCdVK
),(2
WQdVP
HQ 21
HndSHdVE
ˆ
),( KPCW
WORK
DISSIPATION
FLUXES
6
Johnson’s idea (2000)
Partitioning the Domain (Eulerian approach)
Better than itseems!
QdVQdVWP
0Q 0Q
7
Long-Term averagesStationarity:
Work = Dissipation
Work = Input-Output
A different view on Lorenz Energy cycle
0 KPE
0
0
WWP
DWWK
0)( ),( )(
KDndissipatio
KACconversion
AGheatingaldifferenti
DW
W
efficiency
Results on IPCC GCMs
Hor vs Vert EP in IPCC modelsCollection of (weak. coup.) vertical columnsWarmer climate: Hor↓ Vert↑
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vertinS
Smat dRnetsurf 1
TE
1TS
S
Smatvert
dRnet
TOA 1TES
Smat
hor
L., et al. 2011; 2014
Model Starter and
Graphic User Interface
Spectral Atmospheremoist primitive equations
on levels
Sea-Icethermodynamic
Terrestrial Surface: five layer soil
plus snow
Vegetations(Simba, V-code,
Koeppen)
Oceans:LSG, mixed layer,or climatol. SST
PlaSim: Planet Simulator
Key features• portable• fast• open source• parallel• modular• easy to use• documented• compatible
Fraedrich et al. 2005
Coupled with MITOGCMCESAM
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Snowball HysteresisSwing of S* by ±10% starting from present climate hysteresis experiment!
Global average surface temperature TSWide (~ 10%) range of S* bistable regime -TS ~ 50 Kd TS/d S* >0 everywhere, almost linear
SB
W
L., Lunkeit, Fraedrich, 2010
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Thermodynamic Efficiencyd η/d S* >0 in SB regimeEffect of decreased static stability
d η/d S* <0 in W regimeSystem thermalized by efficient LH fluxes
η decreases at transitions System more stable
η=0.04
Δθ=10K
Let’s alter also [CO2]Parametric Analysis of Climate ChangeStructural Properties of the system (Boschi, et
al. 2013)Lower Manifold Upper Manifold
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η
CO2
S*
CO2
S*
A 3D picture - EP
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Be Smat Smin Smat W
Smat dV
H 1
T
dV 2
T
Parametrizations
14
EP vs Emission Temperature
Purple Ω=ΩEBlack Ω=1/2ΩE
Parametrizations
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Efficiency vs Emission Temperature
Parametrizations
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Heat Transport vs Emission Temperature
No ice
D&B 2011
Just ice
Some ice
Change in Stratification
Polar Ampl.β
Polar Ampl. α
Shorter year - Phase Transition
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Width bistability vs length year (L. et al. 2013)Fast orbiting planets cannot be in Snowball EarthHabitability
ConclusionsUnifying picture connecting Energy cycle to EP;Simplified 2D formula for studying GCMsSnowball hysteresis experiment Mechanisms involved in climate transitions;Analysis of the impact of [CO2] increaseGeneralized set of climate sensitivitiesAnalysis of impact of change on l.o.y.
Many challenges ahead:Analysis of GCMs performanceMelancholia/Edge StatesMultiscale, coarse graining effects
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Bibliography Boschi R., S. Pascale, V. Lucarini: Bistability of the climate around the
habitable zone: a thermodynamic investigation, Icarus (2013) Lucarini, V., K. Fraedrich, and F. Lunkeit, Thermodynamic Analysis of
Snowball Earth Hysteresis Experiment: Efficiency, Entropy Production, and Irreversibility. Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc., 136, 2-11 (2010)
Lucarini V., Thermodynamic Efficiency and Entropy Production in theClimate System, Phys Rev. E 80, 021118 (2009)
Lucarini, V., K. Fraedrich, and F. Ragone, 2011: New results on thethermodynamical properties of the climate system. J. Atmos. Sci., 68,2438-2458
Lucarini V., S. Pascale, R. Boschi, E. Kirk, N. Iro, Habitability andMultistability in Earth-like Planets, Astr. Nach. 334 576 – 588 (2013)
Lucarini V., Blender R., Herbert C., Pascale S., Wouters, J., Mathematical and Physical Ideas for Climate Science, arXiv:1311.1190 [physics.ao-ph] (2014)
Lucarini V. S. Pascale, Entropy Production and Coarse Graining of the Climate Fields in a General Circulation Model, Clim. Dyn. (2014)