BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Past Improvements and What Lies Ahead for the Regional Program Robert L. Brown Calibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and.

BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

Past Improvements andWhat Lies Ahead for the Regional Program

Robert L. BrownCalibrating the Nevada Economy: Data and Tools for

Assessing Our State and Local EconomiesReno, NevadaFebruary 2, 2007

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BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives

Accelerated estimates

New statistics

Other improvements

Future improvements

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Accelerations

Acceleration

Data release From To Timing

Quarterly state personal income 4 months 3 months Completed 2004

Total GDP by state 18 months 6 months Completed 2005

GDP-by-state industry detail 18 months 10 months Completed 2005County industry

detail16 months 12 months Completed 2005

Metro-area personal income 16 months 9 months Completed 2006

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New Statistics: Local Area Compensation

County estimates of compensation by industry, 1998 forward Sum of Wages and salaries and

supplements to wages Labor costs of production

First released in 2005 December release provides early

indicator of economic activity for counties

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New Statistics: More Local Area Data

Metro area disposable personal income Researching the estimation of personal

current taxes for metro areas Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI

Some results from the prototype estimates… Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current

taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes

1,082—7.4 % of personal income

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New Statistics: More Data on Tables

New tables—CA04 summary and CA06 Compensation

More Geography New Metropolitan area definitions—

including micropolitan areas

More detail on tables Since 1996 the amount of detail on tables

has doubled 1996—0.9 million lines per year 2006—2.0 million lines per year

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New Statistics: Longer Time Series

Annual state earnings industry data now back to 1990 on a NAICS basis Previously only 2001 forward

GDP by state now available for 1963 forward on SIC basis Previously 1977 forward

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New Statistics: Interarea Prices

Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences

Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38 urban

areas Covers 87 percent of US population

CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data

BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005

Article in September 2006 Monthly Labor Review

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Other Improvements: Improved Preliminary State Wage Methodology

California 0.53Nevada 0.71Oregon 0.68Utah 0.82

Scaling factors for CES jobs for estimating wages

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Other Improvements: Outreach

Outreach to users of the statistics 6 Regional data users conferences

around the country in the past 15 months

7 RIMS training workshops for regional data users in the past 15 months

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Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location

Go To: BEA Home

Regional Articles Tool

Bar Regional

Working Papers and Presentations

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Future Improvements: More Accelerations of Releases

Personal income for metropolitan areas 8 months after end of calendar year

GDP by state and sector 6 months after end of calendar year

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Future Improvements: More Local Area Data

Gross metro product (GMP) Initial estimates—top-down approach:

Allocate state GDP by local area earnings data

Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP Taxes and gross operating surplus Research using sub-state Census Bureau

data

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Future Improvements: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income

Develop alternative household income measures that better meet user needs to: Measure spending capacity Track tax base Research to be released this Spring

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US Pension Accounting, 2000

Personal income 8,429.7 - Net reclassifications 3.0 - Pension contributions 697.7 - Pension Fund Property Income 367.7 + Pension benefits 652.2Adjusted personal income 8,013.6

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Future Improvements: Personal Income Mapping

Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping Prototype this year

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Future Improvements: GDP by State

Carry GDP by state back to 1992 on a NAICS industry basis NAICS currently from 1997 Requires back-casting Census Bureau

data at Center for Economic Studies Develop alternative state GDP

methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses

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Future Improvement: Regional Multipliers

Produce value-added multipliers In addition to gross output multipliers

currently produced Improve methods to “regionalize”

the national input-output accounts Research into capturing

interregional flows of goods and people

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Other Future Research: New Data Sources

The American Community Survey (ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form

IRS information returns data by state Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

(MEPS) data for contributions to health insurance

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And Finally: Comprehensive Revision

Spring 2009—every 5 years Definitional revisions Statistical and methodological

revisions Presentational revisions

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Questions?

Contact: Robert L, Brown 202.606.9246 [email protected]