BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts: Overview and Recent Research Activities Robert L. Brown Understanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and Planning.

BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts:

Overview andRecent Research Activities

Robert L. BrownUnderstanding Regional Economic Data for Policy and

PlanningDallas, Texas

September 8, 2006

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BEA’s Regional Accounts Data

Personal income State, quarterly and annual Local area, annual

Counties, metro areas, BEA economic areas

Gross State Product (GSP) by industry Annual for 81 industries

Regional input-output multipliers RIMS II For user defined regions

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Uses of BEA’s Regional Accounts

To distribute over $215 billion in Federal grants to states

Revenue and expenditure forecasts

Economic development planning

New business location and expansion decisions

Assessment of local impacts of development or disaster

Econometric forecasting models

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BEA’s Regional Accounts Initiatives

Accelerated estimates

New statistics

Improved estimates

Other research

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Accelerated estimates

Metropolitan area personal income From 16 to 9 months after the end of the year 2005 released September 6

Gross State Product From 17 to 6 months after the end of the year

June 6 release for 2005 total GSP October 26 release for 2005 GSP by industry

Compensation of employees by industry and county From 13 to 12 months after the end of the year 2004 released December 30, 2005

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New Statistics: Local Area Data

Metro area disposable personal income Researching the estimation of personal

current taxes for metro areas Subtracted from personal income to derive DPI

Some results… Bridgeport, CT per capita personal current

taxes 16,150—26.1% of personal income McAllen, TX per capita personal current taxes

1,082—7.4 % of personal income

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New Statistics: More Local Area Data

Gross metro product (GMP) Initial estimates—top-down approach:

Allocate GSP by local area earnings data

Research into bottom-up approach for non-labor part of GMP Taxes and gross operating surplus Research using sub-state Census Bureau

data

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New Statistics: Longer Time Series

Carry time series back in time on a NAICS basis Annual State earnings back to 1990

In September 2006 Will evaluate extent of BLS suppressions of W&S

for counties GSP back to 1992

Requires back-casting Census Bureau data at Center for Economic Studies

Historical GSP on SIC basis GSP now released (in April) for 1963 forward

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New Statistics: Interarea Prices

Indexes that permit place to place comparisons correcting for price level differences

Jointly with the BLS, using CPI microdata Intermediate goal: produce indexes for 38

urban areas Covers 87 percent of US population

CPI covers urban areas, so state indexes require additional data

BEA Advisory Committee presentation and Working Paper in 2005

Article scheduled for September Monthly Labor Review

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New Statistics: Alternative Estimates of Regional Income and

Product Develop alternative household

income measures that better meet user needs to: Measure spending capacity Track tax base

Develop alternative GSP methodology to estimate gross output and intermediate expenses

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Improved Estimates: Regional Multipliers

Improve methods to “regionalize” the national input-output accounts

Capture interregional flows of goods and people

Produce value-added multipliers In addition to gross output multipliers

currently produced Much of this research will be

undertaken with Commodity Flow Survey microdata At the Census Bureau’s Center for Economic

Studies

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Improved Estimates: New Source Data

IRS Information Returns data Potential information on

Pension disbursements and roll-overs to aid in estimating alternative income measures

Non-filers who receive information returns but don’t need to file tax returns

Information to reconcile state personal income with adjusted gross income

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for estimating employers’ contributions to health insurance Provide better interarea variation on health

insurance contributions

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Other Research

Intra-industry Trade among states The American Community Survey

(ACS) and the Local Employment Dynamics (LED) datasets as substitutes for the decennial Census long-form

Interactive Web-based state and county personal income mapping

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Regional Working Papers and Presentations in One Location

Go To: BEA Home

Regional Articles Tool

Bar Regional

Working Papers and Presentations

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Questions?

Contact: Robert L, Brown 202.606.9246 [email protected]