MIRACLE Project acronym: MIRACLE Project title: Mediating integrated actions for sustainable ecosystems services in a changing climate Period covered: from 1.01.2017 to 31.05.2017 Deliverable name: Revision of modelled scenarios as suggested in stakeholder workshops 3 Del. No. 2.4 Authors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell, Seifeddine Jomaa, Ainis Lagzdiņš, Arturs Veinbergs The BONUS MIRACLE project has received funding from by BONUS (Art 185), funded jointly by the EU and the Innovation Fund Denmark, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Latvian Ministry of Education and Science, Polish National Centre for Research and Development, and Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS).
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MIRACLEAuthors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell, Seifeddine Jomaa, Ainis Lagzdiņš, Arturs Veinbergs The BONUS
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MIRACLE
Project acronym: MIRACLE
Project title: Mediating integrated actions for sustainable ecosystems services in a changing climate
Period covered: from 1.01.2017 to 31.05.2017
Deliverable name: Revision of modelled scenarios as suggested in stakeholder workshops 3
Del. No. 2.4
Authors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz
Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell,
5 LITERATURE ....................................................................................................................... 53
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1 Introduction
In this report the results and summary of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd1 rounds of the MIRACLE
stakeholder workshops are described. This report mainly includes modelling results for the
measures that were discussed during the last workshop in each of the catchments.
2 Revison and summary of scenarios from 3rd workshop
2.1 Berze
2.1.1 Pathways
Overall, five meetings in three rounds of workshops were organized in Latvia to discuss
proposed measures in the existing and upcoming planning documents with the core group of
stakeholders and to identify measures suggested by these stakeholders. The core group of
stakeholders consisted of representatives from governmental institutions, e.g., the Ministry of
Environmental Protection and Regional Development, the Ministry of Agriculture, the State
Environmental Services, the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, the Health
Inspectorate, the Real Properties of Ministry of Agriculture, the Rural Support Service, Jelgava
and Dobele local municipalities and their enterprises, representatives of NGOs such as the
Latvian Rural Advisory and Training Centre, the Latvian Fund for Nature, the Baltic
Environmental Forum, the Farmers Parliament, the Latvian Association of Organic Farming, and
the project partners from the University of Latvia and Latvia University of Agriculture. In the
Berze catchment, the first four meetings with stakeholders led to the identification of set of
nutrient mitigation measures combined in three pathways. More detailed information about
the identified pathways was presented in the report Deliverable 2.3.
Pathway 1 - ,,Business as usual” pathway (2015-2030)
Pathway 2 – Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants (2021-2030)
Pathway 3 – Agri-Ecological Measures (2021-2030)
In Berze, several smaller workshops were run as part of the 1st and 2nd round, and meeting 4
was part of the third round of stakeholder workshops. After that stakeholder meeting , the
wastewater authority and the farmers organization in particular had several suggestions how to
improve the list of measures evaluated and modelled using the HYPE model. These suggestions
1 As part of the 3
rd round of workshops in the MIRACLE project, the 4
th workshop was organized in the Selkea
catchment , whereas in Berze catchment it was the 5th
meeting.
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were taken into consideration and implemented in the model setup, and the updated model
setup and simulation results were presented in meeting 5.
The working group on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) measures suggested to reduce the
number of WWTPs that would be upgraded from 14 to 3; those where infrastructural
improvements would be optimal and needed. It was recommended to include the WWTPs of
the Auri, Penkule and Kirpeni settlements in the pathway as these facilities are old and their
renovation/replacement could result in meaningful nutrient reduction effects. Another
suggestion was that the wastewater collection systems at the Biksti and Auri plants should be
inspected using video surveillance. It is believed that if groundwater and stormwater infiltration
into the sewer system could be eliminated, the discharge of untreated wastewater with
associated negative impacts would be reduced. Overall, it was decided that in Pathway 2
(Upgrading of Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants) three wastewater treatment plants with
a capacity of 300 person equivalents (PE) each would be upgraded to the treatment level
recommended by HELCOM 28E/5 (total nitrogen of 25 mg/l, total phosphorus of 2 mg/l), and
the existing ceramic sewer system would be replaced to eliminate storm water and
groundwater infiltration.
The farmers organization “Farmers Parliament” suggested to reduce the application rates of
mineral and organic fertilizers from the maximum allowed (the assumption in pathway 1) to the
levels actually used by farmers. The maximum fertilization rates of nitrogen (N) for different
agricultural crops are calculated by farmers based on the expected yields. These rates are
defined in the national legislation - Regulation of the Cabinet of Ministers No. 834 adopted on
December 23, 2014 “Regulation Regarding Protection of Water and Soil from Pollution with
Nitrates Caused by Agricultural Activity”. For example, for winter wheat, if farmers expects to
have a yield of less than 3 t ha-1, the maximum nitrogen (N) application rate would be 80 kg ha-1.
Similarly, if the expected yield of winter wheat would be in the range 3 to 5 t/ha, the N
application rate would be 120 kg/ha. Phosphorus (P) application rates are not limited by Latvian
legislation. Overall, the suggestions by the “Farmers Parliament” were taken into consideration
and the N and P application rates for the main crops were adjusted in the HYPE setup, and the
model recalibrated taking into account the amount of fertilizers used. The changes in the
pathways representation [versus in Deliverable 2.3] and the measures included are summarized
in Table 1. Bold text denotes changes in comparison with Deliverable 2.3.
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Table 1 Summary of measures included in the development pathways for the Berze River basin as discussed in
the 5th
stakeholder meeting (3rd
round of workshops); modifications in response to stakeholder suggestions are
shown in bold in column 2.
Pathway Measure Description Stakeholder Model
representation
Measures Pathway 1 – “Business as usual”
Organic farming Measure implemented on 1305 ha (previously 3266 ha)
Farming without mineral fertilizers and chemical pesticides is expected to reduce pressures from diffuse agricultural sources and improve water quality
Rural Support Service of Latvia
1) Use only organic fertilizers for tile drained grasslands on suggested area
2) Use only organic fertilizers for the suggested crops on suggested area
Measures Pathway 2 – Upgrading of Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants
Upgrading small municipal wastewater treatment plants to meet HELCOM recommendations
Effluent quality from three (previously 14) wastewater treatment plants improved to below 2 mg/l P tot and 25 mg/l N tot
Reduces the nutrient discharge from small wastewater treatment plants
Wastewater authority
1) Reduced point sources nutrient contributions, including storm water inputs
2) Reduced point sources nutrient contributions, excluding storm water inputs
Measures Pathway 3 – Agri-Ecological Measures
Optimization of mineral and organic fertilizer use
Reduced application of mineral and organic fertilizers by 5%, 10% and 20% for all arable and grassland areas Previously: Reduced application of mineral and organic N by 20% for all arable and grassland areas
Efficient usage of mineral and organic fertilizers as well as reduced nutrient losses from agricultural areas
Environmental authority
Reduced input of mineral and organic fertilizer to all arable and grassland areas; reduced amount of plant residues due to reduced yields in the “CropData” file
Measures Pathway 4 – Upgrading Hydro-electric Plants (new measures)
Establishment of fish-ways at existing hydro-electric plants
Establishment of measure for fish migration at five hydro-electric plants
Will improve fish migration and spawning opportunities,
The above tables show long term mean nitrogen and phosphorus transport from Helgeå under
future climate and a change in the transport due to the Pathway 2 measures modeled
individually with HYPE. Wetlands contribute to the largest portion of the nutrients removed in
Pathway 2. When the impact of wetlands was simulated without the other measures from
Pathway 2, 1,0% and 0,51% of nitrogen and phosphorus transport, respectively, was removed
compared to 1,1% and 0,6% removed when all measures in Pathway 2 were simulated.
3.3 Reda
Pathway 1 – Business as usual
The business as usual pathway included the measures resulting from “The National Programme
for Construction of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants” [RBMP 2016] and “The River basin
management plans (2016-2021)” [RBMP 2016] including currently implemented measures and
measures that have already been decided in previous plans even if they are not yet
implemented.
Area based measures targeted at diffuse pollution from agriculture are identical to the agri-
environmental measures in the local regulations and results of research co-financed by the
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European Union within the framework of Technical Assistance for the Rural Development
Program 2007-2013 [Wyniki…, 2014]. In this pathway, the recommendations of the Code of
Good Agricultural Practices regarding the buffer zones were also taken into account.
WRF climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios resulted in a reduced concentration of N and
P in the Reda catchment on average by 4.0 % and 7.7 %, respectively.
Figure 32 Total-N concentrations simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where the climate change scenario WRF was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 33 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios WRF was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
RCA climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios results in a reduced concentration of N and P
in the Reda catchment on average by 9,2 % and 12,8 %, respectively compared to the baseline
period.
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Figure 34 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 35 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Pathway 2 – Focus on Urban Areas (Increase of retention in urban area)
The measures proposed in this pathway resulted from discussions at the 2nd and 3rd stakeholder
workshops and were focused on limiting the peak flow in the Reda river with measures
implemented in urban areas. In this pathway new reservoirs were modelled in three sub-basins
(6, 7 and 9). The results indicated that those measures could indeed contribute to reduce the
magnitude of flow peaks from all the three sub-basins (Figure 36 to Figure 38). Furthermore, the
results suggested that they may have an important effect also in a future changed climate
(Figure 39 to Figure 41).
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Figure 36 The effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-basin 6.
Figure 37 Effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-
basin 7.
Figure 38 Effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-
basin 9.
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RCA-6
Figure 39 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on discharge from the Reda sub-basin 6 for the time horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.
RCA-7
Figure 40 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on the discharge from the Reda sub-
bains 7 for the horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.
RCA-9
Figure 41 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on the discharge from the Reda sub-
basin 9 for the horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.
Pathway 3 – Focus on Rural Areas
Due to the low consumption of mineral fertilizers in the Reda catchment, a pathway where the
double dose of fertilizers would be used was considered. According to data from the Local Data
Bank (official data base Central Statistical Office of Poland), the mean consumption of mineral
fertilizers in terms of pure ingredient per hectare of agricultural land in the Pomeranian Voivodeship
equals 74.8 kg N/ha and 18.3 kg P/ha in 2015, which is more than 13 % lower than the average for
the Pomeranian Voivodeship (Deliverable 2.3). The modelled effect of this increase was that the
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concentration of N and P discharged from the Reda catchment would increase by 6% and 1.8%,
respectively, compared to the baseline period.
WRF climate change scenarios
The projected climate change in the WRF climate scenario, indicated a further reduce of the
concentration of total N and total P in the Reda catchment up to 4,9 % and 2,8 %, respectively.
RCA climate change scenarios
When using the RCA climate scenarios instead, the results indicated a further reduce of nutrient
concentration, up to 11 % for total N and 8 % for total P.
Figure 42 Simulated concentrations of Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the time horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 43 Simulated Total-P concentrations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the time horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Pathway 4 – Agro-Environmental Measures
Measures in pathway 4 are focused on limiting the load of nitrogen and phosphorus from the
Reda catchment. Permanent grasslands, located in the immediate vicinity of surface waters,
have protective functions and form a kind of buffer zones between arable land and waters.
Buffer zone – 1st solution: It was assumed that 90% of the length of the Reda River
would have a buffer zone, which would reduce the overland flow transport of
phosphorus by 90 % compared to the baseline period.
The result from modelling buffer zones was a reduced concentration of phosphorus at the
outflow of Reda catchment by about 16.3 % compared to the baseline period.
The projected climate change using the WRF climate scenario may reduce the concentration of
phosphorus at the outflow of the Reda catchment by on average 24.7 % compared to the
baseline period, and the average concentration of TP would be 0.12 mg/l (with pathway 4
effect).
RCA climate change scenarios Projected climate change using the RCA climate scenario may reduce the concentration of phosphorus at the outflow of Reda catchment by on average 12 % compared to the baseline period, and the average concentration of P would be 0.11 mg/l (Figure 45).
Figure 44 Simulations of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l
Buffer zone – 2nd solution: In this version of the pathway, it was assumed that 70% of
the length of the Reda River would have a buffer zone, and that 80 % of the overland
flow transport of phosphorus would be retained in the buffer zone compared to the
baseline period.
The result of modelling of buffer zones showed a reduced concentration of phosphorus at the
outflow of Reda catchment by about 10% compared to the baseline period.
Land use change - Greening
This measure included a 10 % increase of the forest area in three sub-basins, i.e. that 10 % of
the agricultural land would be replaced by forest. The results indicated that this would decrease
the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus with about 1.6% and 3.5%, respectively.
Increasing the forest area resulted in a decrease in surface runoff at about 2.0% in compared to
the baseline scenario.
WRF climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in the WRF climate scenarios may result in a reduced of concentration
of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of the Reda catchment with an average 4.2 % and
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8.4 % respectively compared to the baseline scenario. Average concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus is 1.6 mg/l and 0.13 mg/l.
RCA climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may result in a reduced concentration of
nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of the Reda catchment with an average 9.1 % and
13.3 % respectively compared to the baseline scenario. Average concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus is 1.5 mg/l and 0.12 mg/l.
Figure 45 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 46 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Waste water infrastructure
All users are connected to the sewage system and sewage is discharged outside the Reda
catchment.
There was a slight decrease of concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of Reda
catchment at 1.3% and 2.5% respectively in comparison to the baseline scenario.
WRF climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 4.0 % and 7.6 % respectively if
compared to the baseline scenario.
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RCA climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 9.0 % and 12.5 % respectively
if compared to the baseline scenario.
Figure 47 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 48 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Pathway 5 – Mixture of Agro-Environmental actions
Measures modeled in pathway 5 are a combination of actions regarding buffer zones and
augmentation of forest areas by 10 %. The combination of actions resulted in a decrease of
concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment at about 1.6% and
18.8%, respectively.
WRF climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 4.2 % and 7.8 % respectively if
compared to the baseline scenario. On the other hand average concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus is 1.6 mg/l and 0.11 mg/l, respectively.
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RCA climate change scenarios
Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 9.1 % and 12.5 % respectively
if compared to the baseline scenario. On the other hand average concentration of nitrogen and
phosphorus is 1.5 mg/l and 0.11 mg/l, respectively.
Figure 49 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
Figure 50 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.
3.3.1 Pathways modeling results
Results of Modeling show a decrease in the average concentrations for both total nitrogen and
total phosphorus when the measures suggested are implemented as summarized in Table 5.
Table 5 Comparison of the modeling results on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations and loads for
the baseline scenario and measures implemented (Reda catchment)
“originally” not connected households would be connected to the sewage system in the future)
the climate change effect can be well mitigated.
4 Conclusions
During the workshops the group of stakeholders indicated that there is a great need to exchange knowledge and experience between researchers and stakeholders. Modellers had a possibility to verify modelling results, input data and initial parameters of the HYPE model (e.g. amount of fertilizer used and width and scope of buffer strips). The main problems in each of catchment are described below.
One of the main problems in the Berze catchment is the high usage of mineral fertilizers. As a result, most of the measures suggested in this catchment concerned ways of reducing nutrient leaching from the soil.
One problem that was raised during the workshop in Helgea catchment was that the Water
Authority was criticized for limited engagement with actors and representatives at the local
level. Moreover, several stakeholders noted that the massive historical transformation of the
landscape (flow regulation and drainage) and the emergence of new ecosystems (such as
grasslands and pastures) have not been taken into account in the identification of measures.
The model results indicated that the predicted decrease in future nitrogen and phosphorus
loads to the Baltic Sea from the Helgea catchment due to climate change will be larger than the
modelled decrease due to implementation of the suggested pathways to change in the
catchment.
The main problem in the Reda catchment is flood hazards. The river is characterized by high water levels in the winter season and early spring. The modelling results showed that building a substantial amount of retention ponds in the urban sub-catchments (small urban retention ponds) may reduce the magnitude of the flow peaks.
For the Selke case study, the results showed that a combination of measures is essential to mitigate climate change effects on nutrient loads. However, applying each of the suggested measure separately would contribute to mitigate the expected the effect of climate change, however, cannot remove it completely.
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5 Literature
Berze
Jacob, D. et al., 2013, EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for
European impact research, Regional Environmental change, doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Reda
Deliverable 2.3, 2018, Report and data set on scenario modelling of measures suggested by
stakeholders to reduce flooding, eutrophication, enhance biodiversity and contribute to other
goals, as well as climate change scenarios.
RBMP, 2016, “The River basin management plans (2016-2021)”.