Craig Rispin CSP
Australian Cotton Industry Keynote - August 5, 2014
Nov 27, 2014
The future of technology impacting the cotton industry - keynote delivered by Craig Rispin, Business Futurist & Innovation Expert
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Transcript
Craig Rispin CSP
“Craig we’ve seen more change in the last 3 years
than in the last 30.”
Strategies to Profit from Future Technologies
Political collaboration and global trades in a world where
slow and sustainable is fashionable
High tech systems deliver for a speed-obsessed global shoper
Resource crises constrain
consumption in a local community
focused world
Fast consumption in global cultural blocs
Connected
Fragmented
Slow Fast
Population Growth
Over the next 15 years, it is like-ly that there will be more than a billion extra people living on our planet, with global population growing from 6.9 billion to reach 8.1 billion by 2025.2 Population in developing countries is ex-pected to rise rapidly, whilst po-pulation in the developed world will remain largely stable.3 This ZLOO�KDYH�VLJQL¿FDQW� LPSDFWV�RQ�the labour force and nature of the demand for textiles.
Resource scarcity
Against the backdrop of popu-lation growth, the key resources needed to support that growth are becoming more scarce. For example, 20,000 – 50,000 sq km of arable land is lost each year through land degradation.4 By 2025, 1.8 billion people are expected to be living in coun-tries or regions with absolu-te water scarcity. As resource scarcity5 increases, resource costs are likely to become incre-asingly high and volatile, with massive impacts on the cost of production and supply security. High oil prices, for example, will have a dramatic impact across the clothing supply chain, with a knock-on effect on the cost of
Increasingly extreme climate change impacts
We have used the upper end of the 2007 IPCC6 estimates for the climate in 2025 in our scenarios, as the latest sci-ence suggests that the lower end of these estimates was conservative.7Agriculture is very vulnerable to climate change impacts, cotton production in-cluded, and it is likely to suffer from the predicted rising tempe-ratures, decreased soil moistu-re and more extreme weather HYHQWV� DQG� ÀRRGLQJ�8 Although effects will vary by region, the overall impact of climate change on global agriculture is likely to be negative. This is likely to ex-acerbate food security concerns in the future, possibly leading to
Spread of (ICT) Information Communications Technology
ICT is spreading at an exponen-tial pace. In 1984 there were 1000 devices in the world ca-pable of accessing the Internet, today there are approximately 1-2 billion. It is predicted that, by 2015, mobile shopping will account for $163 billion in sales worldwide: 12% of global ecom-merce turnover.9 Through the increased sophistication and spread of ICT, tracking product supply chains is becoming more accurate, less expensive, and easier than ever. This increase in the adoption of ICT is shifting consumer expectations, with more demands for transparency and information about products and services.
Key certain factors
impacting the future of cotton
The more certain factors are the globally recognised trends which feature in all the Cotton Futures scenarios, although their emphasis may vary, as might the societal response to them. These are the factors we need to prepare for in any given scenario.
People
Business Technology
Life SciencesWork/Life Shift A
cceleration
Youth Unemployed
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End ofRetirement
Emerging Models
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
Robots Rise
Coworking &Collaboration
Massively Mobile
SecurityScare
Big Data
We Live in Times of Exponential Change...
Expand Your Mind to Profit
from Changes Ahead...
Massively Mobile
Let’s Play a Mobile Game...
Text Me Your Answers
My Mobile is: 0413 23 83 13
Text Me Your Full Name
How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6.8B Mobile Subscribers
1.5B 3G/LTE Subscribers
1.8 Billion Mobiles Sold in 2013
97%Phones per 100 Citizens
+52%Tablets Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did
7
Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter Q1:95 – Q4:13
0
20
40
60
80
Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13
Glo
bal U
nits
Shi
pped
(MM
s)
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets
Tablet Units = Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did +52%, 2013
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.
Smart TVs
Wearables
The Future of Mobile is Massive!
This is Leading Many Organisations to Have a
‘Mobile First Policy’...
Do You Have a Mobile First Policy
in Your Organisation?
Text: Yes or No
Why Do This?
People
Business Technology
Life SciencesWork/Life Shift A
cceleration
Youth Unemployed
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End ofRetirement
Emerging Models
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
Robots Rise
Coworking &Collaboration
Massively Mobile
SecurityScare
Big Data
Life Sciences:The 40 Year Opportunity...
Juan Enriquez
“40 years ago, if I told you...”
Edible Chip - Proteus Biomedical
Individuals Can Now Do... What Companies Used to Do
Companies Can Now Do... What Countries Used to Do
How to Profit from the Massive Changes Ahead
Align Yourself with the Organisations Changing
the World Today
Who Are the Most Innovative
Organisations Today?
Use What They Use.Think Like They Think.
Borrow Their Ideas!
Cloud Computing
Designed for Low Bandwidth Users
ChromeBooks
Craig Rispin CSP
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