ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (Progress Report) Presenter Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey) Investigators Ann Schrader, Efren Serra (SAIC, Monterey) Paul Wittmann (FNMOC) Hendrik Tolman (NCEP) Mike Frost (NRL, Monterey) Collaborators Chris Sisko, Chris Lauer, Jessica Schauer (NHC) Andrea Schumacher, John Knaff and Mark DeMaria (CIRA) IHC 2011 Miami
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ATCF Requirements, Intensity Consensus
Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts
(Progress Report)
Presenter
Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey)
Investigators
Ann Schrader, Efren Serra (SAIC, Monterey)
Paul Wittmann (FNMOC)
Hendrik Tolman (NCEP)
Mike Frost (NRL, Monterey)
Collaborators
Chris Sisko, Chris Lauer, Jessica Schauer (NHC)
Andrea Schumacher, John Knaff and Mark DeMaria (CIRA)
IHC 2011Miami
Tasks
1. NHC User Requirements for ATCF (80% Complete)
2. Intensity Consensus (Complete)
3. Sea Heights Consistent with NHC Forecasts (80% Complete)
1. User Requirements for ATCFHighlights
-ATCF Requirements Lists (FY 2010 and 2011)
-60 hr forecasts
-Capability to save TWO disturbance probabilities
-Expanded seas radii capability (>995 nm)
-Other NHC/JHT/HFIP Requests
-GPCE version of wind probabilities
-“Display Only” version of Web-ATCF
-Large ensemble ingest, retention and display
-ATCF Documentation
Sixty Hour Forecast Capability
Intensity
Track
Wind Radii
Capability to save TWO disturbance probabilities
Transition disturbance to a storm
TWO disturbance entry
Disabled Menu Items
Web-ATCF “Display Only” Mode
Disabled functions throughout application. Allows no advisories, no communication with web
pages, no storm file updates. Near real-time updates on live tropical cyclones.
Large ensemble ingest, storage, display
1000 MC Wind Probability realizations. ATCF can now handle
up to 1300 aids for a single date. Still needs color for intensity.
Online Documentation
•ATCF Users Manual (300 pages)•ATCF System Administrators Guide (50 pages)•ATCF Installation Guide (10 pages)•ATCF Storm Archive Management (2 pages)•ATCF Objective Best Track Guide (5 pages)•fasDB (GRIB and Bufr Database) Guide (25 pages)•ATCF Storm Database Format (20 pages)•GUI documentation (1000 pages)•22 ATCF related journal articles
Link to documents: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/ATCF-FAQ.html
•Based on Watches/Warnings and cumulative wind probabilities in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (CIRA)•Strategic objective guidance for onset of 50-kt winds at military installations•Does not include local effects or base sensitivities
TC-COR Threshold Probabilities Forecast Lead 4 5% 72 H 3 6% 48 H 2 8% 24 H 1 12% 12 H
•Based Watches/Warnings and cumulative wind probabilities in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico (CIRA)•Strategic objective guidance for onset of 50-kt winds at military installations•Does not include local effects or base sensitivities
TC-COR Threshold Probabilities Forecast Lead 4 5% 72 H 3 6% 48 H 2 8% 24 H 1 12% 12 H
(NRL, CIRA, NOAA/NESDIS)
Why so low?
Why are the TC-COR guidance thresholds so low?
•Guidance should step through conditions sequentially•Times should correspond to those in operations, if possible•Shouldn’t miss a wind event
Objective TC-COR Settings for 26W 2004 at Yokosuka
Current Thresholds Double Current Thresholds Quadruple Current Thresholds(Maximum Threat Scores)