Assessing Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in the Crop ...€¦ · Therefore, the objective of this study is to quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks in the Alberta

Assessing Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in the Crop Sector: Alberta &

Manitoba

Authors:

Lana Awada, [email protected]

Cecil Nagy, [email protected]

January, 2020

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

ii

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... iv

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................1

2. Overview of the Pan-Canadian Framework .......................................................................2

3. Alberta and Manitoba Carbon Pricing Systems..................................................................3

4. Overview: Trends in Canada’s GHG Emissions .................................................................4

5. Method and Data Sources Used to Measure GHG Emissions in Alberta and Manitoba ....6

5.1. PCEM Coefficients and Data Sources .................................................................................. 8 5.1.1. GHG sinks from soil carbon sequestration (SCS) ......................................................................... 8 5.1.2. GHG emissions from fertilizer application ................................................................................. 10 5.1.3. GHG emissions from crop residue .............................................................................................. 11 5.1.4. GHG emissions from summerfallow practice ............................................................................. 12 5.1.5. GHG emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation .................................... 13

6. Results: Greenhouse Gas Quantity and value in the Crop Sector: Alberta and Manitoba

15

6.1. Alberta Results.................................................................................................................... 15 6.1.1. Alberta estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) (soil sink) ................................................. 15 6.1.2. Alberta estimates of emission from fertilizer application ........................................................... 17 6.1.3. Alberta estimates of emissions from crop residue ....................................................................... 18 6.1.4. Estimates of emissions from summerfallow ................................................................................ 20 6.1.5. Alberta estimates of emissions from fuel used in crop production and transportation .............. 21 6.1.6. Alberta total crop production emission quantities and values .................................................... 25 6.1.7. Alberta Net GHG Balance and Value for the Alberta Crop Sector ............................................ 26

6.2. Manitoba Results ................................................................................................................ 29 6.2.1. Manitoba estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) (soil sink) ............................................. 29 6.2.2. Manitoba estimates of emissions from fertilizer application ...................................................... 31 6.2.3. Manitoba estimates of emissions from crop residue ................................................................... 33 6.2.4. Manitoba estimates of emissions from summerfallow (1985-2016)............................................. 34 6.2.5. Manitoba estimates of emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation ......... 36 6.2.6. Manitoba total crop production emission quantities and values ................................................ 39 6.2.7. Manitoba Net GHG Balance and Value for the Manitoba Crop Sector ..................................... 40

7. Conclusion and Remarks ..................................................................................................43

References ................................................................................................................................47

Appendix A: Data and Coefficients for PCEM Model ................................................................51

Appendix B: Alberta Annual Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (1985-2016) .........................53

Appendix C: Manitoba Annual Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (1985-2016) ......................62

iii

List of Figures

Figure 6.1.1. Alberta Soil Carbon Sequestration (1985–2016) ................................................... 16 Figure 6.1.2. Alberta Emission from Nitrogen Fertilizer Application (1985–2016) .................... 18 Figure 6.1.3. Alberta Emission from Crop Residue (1985–2016) ............................................... 19 Figure 6.1.4. Alberta Emission from Summerfallow (1985–2016) ............................................. 21 Figure 6.1.5. Alberta Emission from Fuel in Crop Production (1985–2016)............................... 22 Figure 6.1.6. Alberta Emission from Fuel in Transportation (1985–2016) ................................. 24 Figure 6.1.7. Alberta Emission from Total Fuel used in crop production and Transportation

(1985–2016) .............................................................................................................................. 25 Figure 6.1.8. Alberta Total Crop Production Emissions (1985–2016) ........................................ 26 Figure 6.1.9. Alberta Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016) ................................. 27

Figure 6.2.1. Manitoba Soil Carbon Sequestration (1985–2016) ................................................ 30 Figure 6.2.2. Manitoba emission from Nitrogen Fertilizer Application (1985–2016) ................. 32 Figure 6.2.3. Manitoba Emission from Crop Residue (1985–2016)............................................ 33 Figure 6.2.4. Manitoba Emission from Summerfallow (1985–2016) .......................................... 35 Figure 6.2.5. Manitoba emission from fuel used in crop production (1985–2016) ...................... 36 Figure 6.2.6. Manitoba Emission from Fuel in Transportation (1985–2016) .............................. 38 Figure 6.2.7. Manitoba Emission from Total Fuel in Production and Transportation (1985–2016)

................................................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 6.2.8. Manitoba Total Crop Production Emissions (1985–2016) ..................................... 40 Figure 6.2.9. Manitoba Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016) .............................. 41

List of Tables

Table 1. Alberta Net GHG Balance and Value (1985–2016) ..................................................... 28 Table 2. Manitoba Net GHG Balance and Value (1985–2016).................................................. 42

iv

Executive Summary In December 2016, Canadian First Minsters agreed to the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean

Growth and Climate Change (PCF). The PCF includes GHG emissions and removals by land use,

land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the measurement of the national inventories of GHGs

(Canada Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, 2016). Including arable land management in

the measurement of GHG emissions is important for Alberta and Manitoba, as the provinces

account for approximately 32% and 11% of Canada’s farmland, respectively; or about 20 Mha and

7 Mha, respectively (Statistics Canada, 2016).

While numerous studies in the literature (e.g., ECCC, 2018 (yearly report); Cerkowniak et al.,

2016; and Dyer et al., 2018) have measured GHG emissions in agriculture, to our knowledge, no

study has systematically assessed the long-run contribution of different farming practices and input

uses to GHGs in the crop sector. Therefore, the objective of this study is to quantify the greenhouse

gas (GHG) sources and sinks in the Alberta and Manitoba crop sectors from 1985 to 2016 by

compiling and analyzing data from various sources by using the Prairie Crop Energy Model

(PCEM) (Nagy, 1999). In this study, crops, crop inputs, soil-climate zones and cropping activities

are the basis for quantifying GHG emissions. The measurement includes the assessment of the

emissions and sinks/sequestration of the main GHGs in the crop sector. These measures are then

expressed in real dollars to estimate the dollar value of these gases. The results are presented

annually at the provincial and soil type zones for the period 1985-2016.

Measuring and tracking the contribution of farming activities to GHGs is key to reducing

environmental impacts in the crop sector. GHG accounting can provide a better understanding of

agricultural contributions to GHG emissions, help identify management practices that increase or

decrease GHG emissions, and better inform policymakers about the magnitude of the sector’s net

GHG emissions, while improving their ability to make prudent decisions in developing and

implementing climate policy in agriculture.

S.1. Alberta Summary

Table S.1 and Figure S.1 summarize the measurement of GHG sources and sinks in the Alberta

crop sector during the period 1985-2016. Table S.1 shows that the crop sector in Alberta

sequestered (GHG sink) about 67 Mt CO2eq over the entire period from 1985 to 2016. Carbon

v

sequestration increased from 0.05 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 6.06 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Total crop

production emissions (GHG source), measured as the sum of emissions from fertilizer application,

residue decomposition, summerfallow and fuel, increased from 3.71 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 6.02 Mt

CO2eq in 2016. Total emissions for the entire period of 1985 to 2016 was equal to 152.61 Mt

CO2eq.

Figure S.1. shows that net GHG balance, measured as the net balance of GHGs that were

emitted or sequestered, decreased for most of the years; it decreased from 3.665 Mt CO2eq in 1985

to 2.45 in 2005 and to (0.035) Mt CO2eq in 2016 (parentheses indicate net sink). The net GHG

balance was net sink in 2013 and 2016. The net GHG balance was a cumulative net sink for the

period 2013-2016. If a value of $10 is assigned to the price of emitting one tonne of CO2eq, the

negative/debit value decreased from ($18.4) million in 1985, to a positive/credit value equal to

$0.335 million in 2016.

Table S.1. Alberta Crop Sector GHG Sources and Sinks (parentheses indicate

sequestration/sink)

Source/Sink

1985

(Mt

CO2eq)

2016

(Mt CO2eq)

Entire

period

(1985-2016)

(Mt CO2eq)

Soil carbon sequestration/sink (0.05) (6.06) (66.46)

Emission from nitrogen fertilizer application 0.99 1.59 38.68

Emission from crop residue 1.07 1.99 48.38

Emission from summerfallow 0.40 0.07 9.13

Emissions from fuel used in crop production

and transportation 1.26 2.37 56.439

Net GHG balance

(net GHG balance = GHG source - GHG sink) 3.66 (0.035) 86.172

vi

Figure S.1. Alberta Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016)

S.1. Manitoba Summary

Table S.2 and Figure S.2 summarize the measurement of GHG sources and sinks in the Manitoba

crop sector during the period 1985-2016. Table S.2 shows that the crop sector sequestered (GHG

sink) 17.4 Mt CO2eq over the entire period from 1985 to 2016. Carbon sequestration increased

from 0.097 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 1.09 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Total crop production emissions (GHG

source), measured as the sum of emissions from fertilizer application, residue decomposition,

summerfallow and fuel, increased from 2.23 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 3.19 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Total

emissions for the entire period of 1985 to 2016 was equal to 80.67 Mt CO2eq.

Figure S.2. shows that, over the period 1985-2016, annual net GHG has stayed at about the

same level for most of the years, net GHG balance was 2.1 Mt CO2eq in both 1985 and 2016. The

exception was in the years of 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013, where net GHG balance slightly

decreased and ranged between 1.5 and 1.7 Mt CO2eq. Figure S.2 shows that although soil carbon

sequestration (SCS) increased from 0.097 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to about 1.1 Mt CO2eq in 2016 this

increase wasn’t large enough to offset the increase in emissions from crop production.

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mt

CO

2-e

q

Carbon Sequestration Total Crop Production Emissions Net GHG Balance (emission-sequestration)

vii

Table S.2. Manitoba Crop Sector GHG Sources and Sinks (parentheses indicate

sequestration/sink)

Source/Sink 1985

(Mt CO2eq)

2016

(Mt

CO2eq)

Entire

period

(1985-2016)

(Mt CO2eq)

Soil carbon sequestration/sink (0.097) (1.09) (17.39)

Emission from nitrogen fertilizer

application 0.770 1.316 31.373

Emission from crop residue 0.739 0.889 22.448

Emission from summerfallow 0.097 0.016 3.088

Emissions from fuel used in crop

production and transportation 0.626 0.968 23.758

Net GHG balance

(net GHG balance = GHG source - GHG sink) 2.135 2.103 63.268

Figure S.2. Manitoba Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016)

Remarks

Regarding the Alberta crop sector, we found that the continuous adoption of sustainable practices,

such as zero tillage (ZT) and agronomic practices associated with ZT (in 2016, 68% of the total

cropland in Alberta was under ZT), enhanced soil carbon sequestration and changed the crop sector

from being a GHG emitter to being a large carbon sink. The change has vastly exceeded Canada’s

commitment to the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, which targeted a 30%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Mt

CO

2-eq


viii

reduction in emissions by 2030 based on 2005 emissions. However, although the Alberta crop

sector was able to handle its environmental challenges, there is more to do, and policymakers,

researchers and other interested parties have an important role. This study identifies two priority

areas for mitigation in Alberta that require research-based policy responses: emissions from

nitrogen and fuel inputs use. These priority areas demonstrate the need to support future research

to identify and further develop agricultural technologies that enhance GHG mitigation based on

inputs use and management practices while ensuring more resilient production systems and food

security.

Regarding the Manitoba crop sector, we found that the continuous use of tillage practices has

reduced the ability of the crop sector to sequester a large amount of soil carbon. In 2016, about

20% of total cropland in Manitoba was under ZT, a reduction of 4% compared to 2011. The

following factors, among others, affected the continuous use of tillage practices: (1) since 1999,

Manitoba has experienced high rates of precipitation, combined with major flood events in 2011

and 2014. As a result, more tillage and crop residue incorporation were used to dry out the soil;

(2) the Dark-brown soil zone is very small, mostly centred around Carberry Manitoba, the soil is

sandy loam, and recently was heavily used for growing potatoes. Potato production uses a lot of

tillage, pre-seed, row cultivating and hilling over the growing season and harvest, then uses tillage

to level the land so cereal can be grown in the following year; (3)

in the Eastern side of the province, soils are high in clay content and moisture. Soil moisture is

mainly due to spring flooding of the Red River, thus farmers in this area heavily till the soil to dry

out and warm up soil for spring seeding. Also, Manitoba has experienced an expansion of long

season, heat-loving crops like soybeans and corn, which can require a tillage operation in the early

spring to warm the soil.

Moreover, emissions from crop production in Manitoba’s crop sector increased by 43%

between 1985 and 2016. This growth was mainly due to the increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and

fuel inputs. Therefore, this study supports the need for future research to develop agricultural

technologies that reduce tillage practices in Manitoba and enhance GHG mitigation based on

fertilizer and fuel inputs use and management practices while ensuring more resilient production

systems and food security.

ix

From a policy perspective, climate change policies may have the ability to reduce GHG in

agriculture. However, policy decisions should be better informed by evidence and founded on the

identification and assessment of GHG sources and sinks. Furthermore, the design and

implementation of effective climate change policies in agriculture involves understanding the

complexity of the agricultural system. This requires balancing the trade-offs between mitigating

agriculture’s contribution to GHG emissions, adapting and building the resilience of agriculture

and food systems to climate change, and increasing agricultural productivity to support equitable

increases in farm income and economic growth. Moreover, recognizing that many stakeholders

might be affected, a new climate change policy requires the engagement, advocacy and cohesion

of a diverse set of stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, the farming community,

civil society, the private sector and academia, in order to foster the acceptance of a new policy and

ensure its efficacy.

1

1. Introduction

For more than quarter century, Canada has set several targets to mitigate anthropogenic climate

change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs).1 However, over this period, Canada

has gone from being at the forefront of driving the global environmental movements to laggard

country when it comes to the implementation of climate change agreements. Canada is a signatory

of the following climate change agreements: (1) The United Nations Conference on Environment

and Development (the Earth Summit) in 1992; (2) The Kyoto Protocol in 2002; (3) the Copenhagen

Accord in 2009; and recently, (4) the Paris Agreement in 2015, which Canada ratified in October

2016, and in December 2016, Canadian First Minsters agreed to the Pan-Canadian Framework on

Clean Growth and Climate Change (PCF). Up until the PCF agreements, Canada had failed to fully

adopt climate change policies that would meet emission reduction commitments. This is due to a

variety of reasons, such as inappropriate design or failure to implement climate change policies,

substantial differences in climate change views among political parties, and between federal and

provincial, territorial and municipal jurisdictions, and pursuing harmonisation of emission

reduction policies with US climate policies—Canada’s largest trading partner. Therefore, the

question remains: can the PCF be any more successful than past agreements? Only time will tell

if Canada’s climate policy under PCF will be fully implemented, and thus, put Canada on the right

path according to government objectives to regain its role as a leader in the global environmental

movement.

The PCF aims to grow the economy while reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The

development of the framework started with the Vancouver Declaration on March 3, 2016, which

is built on the commitment already taken by Canada from the 21st Conference of the Parties

(COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris.

In the COP21, Canada committed to cut GHG emissions by 30 percent below 2005 emissions by

2030 (Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), 2018).

1Anthropogenic impact or human impact on the environment includes: changes to biophysical environments and

ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources (i.e., global warming, environmental degradation, mass extinction

and biodiversity loss, ecological crisis, and ecological collapse).

2

In keeping with the proposed target for COP21, the PCF includes GHG emissions and

removals by land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) in the measurement of the national

inventories of GHGs (Canada Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, 2016). Including arable

land management in the measurement of GHG emissions is important for Alberta and Manitoba,

as the provinces accounts for approximately 32% and 11% of Canada’s farmland, respectively; or

about 20 Mha and 7 Mha, respectively (Statistics Canada, 2016).

The objective of this report is to quantify the GHG emissions in the Alberta and Manitoba

crop sectors from 1985 to 2016 by compiling and analyzing data from various sources and using

the Prairie Crop Energy Model (PCEM) (Nagy, 1999). To do that, we systematically assessed the

long-run contribution of different farming practices and input uses to GHGs. In this study, crops,

crop inputs, soil-climate zones and cropping activities are the basis for quantifying GHG

emissions. The measurement includes the assessment of the emissions and sinks/sequestration of

the main GHGs in the crop sector, including carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The

2016 estimates are compared to those of 2005 and 1985 (base year) to track the historical changes

in GHG emissions. The GHG measures are presented annually at the provincial level as well as at

the soil type level for each province.

Measuring and tracking the contribution of farming activities to GHGs is key to reducing

environmental impacts in the crop sector. GHG accounting can provide a better understanding of

agricultural contributions to GHG emissions, help identify management practices that increase or

decrease GHG emissions, and better inform policymakers about the magnitude of the sector’s net

GHG emissions, while improving their ability to make prudent decisions in developing and

implementing climate policy in agriculture.

2. Overview of the Pan-Canadian Framework

A fundamental component of the Pan-Canadian Framework is the commitment to pricing carbon

pollution across Canada by 2018. The carbon price is an instrument that stimulates markets and

provides an option for polluters to discontinue their polluting activities or continue polluting and

pay for it. The carbon price also stimulates the development and adoption of cleaner technology

for a more sustainable clean-growth economy. Provinces and territories have the flexibility to

design their own pricing system to meet emission-reduction targets. Revenue generated from

pricing carbon will remain in the province or territory of origin, allowing governments to decide

3

how to best reinvest in their economy. The federal government outlines a benchmark for pricing

carbon pollution to ensure that all jurisdictions will have carbon pricing in place by 2018. In

keeping with the PCF benchmark, a federal carbon pricing enforcement system will be applied in

any province or territory that does not have its own carbon pricing system by 2018. The benchmark

outlines that jurisdictions can apply either an explicit price-based system, which directly sets a

price on carbon by defining a tax rate on GHG emissions, or a cap-and-trade system (CTS), which

allows industries with low emissions to sell their allowances to greater emitters, creating supply

and demand for emissions allowance and thus, a market price for GHG emissions.

Covered emission sources include the following seven GHGs reported by the UNFCCC:

carbon dioxide (CO2); methane (CH4); nitrous oxide (N2O); hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);

perfluorocarbons (PFCs); sulfur hexafluoride (SF6); and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). Following the

internationally recognized approach to establishing a standard carbon price, all GHG emissions

estimates are converted to CO2-equivalents (CO2eq) based on Global Warming Potentials with a

100-year time horizon (GWP100).

The federal government announced a $2 billion fund over five years under the Low Carbon

Economy Leadership Fund and Low Carbon Economy Challenge to the Business Development

Bank of Canada and Export Development Canada to support provincial and territorial actions that

reduce GHG emissions, develop new clean innovations, to help people and business reducing the

cost of implementing the carbon pricing system and to create jobs and healthier communities.

3. Alberta and Manitoba Carbon Pricing Systems

Alberta was the first province in Canada to introduce an output-based pricing system in 2007,

applied on large industrial facilities, initially managed under the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation

(SGER) and then under the Carbon Competitiveness Incentives program on January 1, 2018. In

addition, in 2017, Alberta introduced a carbon levy that covers fossil fuels for transportation and

heating. However, on May 30, 2019, this levy was repealed, and as result, on June 13, 2019, the

federal government announced that a carbon pollution pricing system will be partially

implemented in Alberta under federal Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act, and include a fuel

charge applied January 1, 2020. The fuel charge is $20/tonne CO2eq in 2020 (Government of

Canada, 2019).

4

In October, 2017, Manitoba announced a Made-in-Manitoba Climate and Green Plan that

includes carbon pricing with a flat price of $25 per tonne. However, a year after, Manitoba

announced that it no longer intends to implement a provincial carbon pollution pricing plan.

Therefore, a federal carbon pricing enforcement system has been implemented in Manitoba under

the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act, and includes: (a) a federal output-based pricing system

that was applied in January 2019 to electricity generation and natural gas transmission pipelines

and covers facilities that emit 50,000 tonnes or more of CO2eq per year; and (b) a federal fuel

charge applied beginning of April 2019. The fuel charge is $20/tonne CO2eq in 2019, set to rise

by $10 per tonne annually to $50/tonne in 2022 (Government of Canada, 2019).

4. Overview: Trends in Canada’s GHG Emissions

In 2016, emissions in Canada reached 704 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2eq, 3.8% below 2005 level

of emissions (ECCC, 2018). Figure 4.1 shows that emissions have decreased in all provinces and

territories since 2005, except in Alberta (14%), Saskatchewan (10%) and to a lesser extent in

Manitoba (3.5%). Alberta’s emissions have increased 51% since 1990. Alberta accounted for 37%

of Canadian emissions in 2016, reflecting the province’s large energy-intensive extractive

industry. Ontario, the second largest emitter of GHGs, accounting for 23% of Canadian emissions

in 2016. Figure 1 shows that Ontario’s emissions have significantly decreased (22%), mainly due

to the closure of coal fired electricity generation plants. The Atlantic provinces and the northern

territories account for 6.2% and 0.4% of Canada’s emissions, respectively.

Figure 4.2 shows that the largest emitting sector in Canada in 2016 was the energy sector. The

oil and gas, and transportation sectors emitted 26% and 25% of total Canada’s emissions;

respectively. Over the period 1990-2016, emissions from oil and gas, transportation and agriculture

sectors increased by 71%, 41%, and 25%; respectively (agriculture emissions exclude LULUCF).

In contrast, emissions from electricity generation and heavy industry decreased by 15% and 22%,

respectively (Figure 4.2). This decrease was due to the increase use of hydro, nuclear and wind

generation.

Canada’s emissions are among the highest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development (OECD), ranking as the fourth largest emitter (OECD, 2017). Canada’s economy

has grown much faster than its GHG emissions, GHG emissions per unit of GDP (emissions

intensity) decreased by 35% since 1990 and 19% since 2005 (ECCC, 2018). However, in 2016,

5

Canada’s emission intensity of 0.49kg CO2eq was above the OECD average of 0.34 kg CO2eq

(OECD, 2017). Canada’s per capita emissions decreased from 22.7 tonne CO2eq in 2005 to 19.4

tonne CO2eq in 2016. Yet, Canada’s per capita emission is above the OECD average of 12.4 tonne

CO2eq (ECCC, 2018).

Figure 4. 1 GHG Emissions by Province and Territory, 1990-2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mt

CO

2eq

Quebec OntarioManitoba SaskatchewanAlberta British ColumbiaAtlantic Canada* Northern Territories**

*Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick**Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut

Source: ECCC (2018), National Inventory Report 1990-2016.

6

Figure 4. 2 Canada’s Emissions by Economic Sector

5. Method and Data Sources Used to Measure GHG Emissions in

Alberta and Manitoba

This study uses the PCEM as an accounting framework to systematically quantify the annual net

GHG emissions and sinks in the crop sector in Alberta and Manitoba from 1985 to 2016. The

PCEM divides each province into crop districts which can also be assessed as the five soil climate

zones—Brown, Dark-brown, Thin-black, Thick-black and Grey—initially defined by Statistics

Canada’s Field Crop Survey (Statistics Canada, 2018).2 (A description of the percentage of

cropland by soil climate zone and crop district is presented in Appendix A, Table 1.A). In each

soil zone, the PCEM allocates arable land to 122 cropping activities, which are defined by the type

of crop grown, land management practices, crop rotations and soil characteristics. The cropping

activities include the eight major grain crops (wheat, durum, feed barley, malt barley, flax, canola,

lentil, and field pea), as well as alfalfa, hay and three “other” categories for pulses, oilseeds crops

and annual crops that are new or limited in Alberta and Manitoba. Each cropping activity can be

produced by one of three tillage practices— conventional tillage (CT), minimum tillage (MT) and

2The soil colour notation is an indication of the soil’s organic matter content accumulated within the topsoil. The

organic matter content of the surface 30 cm is about 2%, 4%, and 7% in the brown, dark brown, and black soil zones,

respectively, and ranges between 1% and 10% in the grey soil zone (Campbell et al., 1990).

7

zero tillage (ZT)—and can be conducted after summerfallow, cereal, pulses, oilseeds, alfalfa, hay

or green manure. The PCEM model follows the basic agronomic restrictions of crop production in

Alberta and Manitoba and considers the impacts of annual and previous year’s crop rotations and

land management practices on the estimation of GHG emissions.

Each cropping activity employs a vector of coefficients that are representative measures of

environmental factors per hectare for each specific crop and of land management in each soil zone,

which together define the relative crop yield, input use and environmental outcomes. The PCEM

multiplies the aggregate hectares allocated to the production process of a specific crop by these

coefficients to generate estimates of GHG emissions. The coefficients are obtained from published

literature, as discussed in more detail later.

The data used in the model was obtained from a number of sources. Seeded area and crop

yield data by crop district from 1985 to 2016, used to populate the model, were obtained from

various Canadian Socio-Economic Information Management System (CANSIM) data series

(Statistics Canada, 1985–2016). Data on the area under CT, MT, ZT and summerfallow practices

are from Statistics Canada’s Census of Agriculture for various years (1991–2016) and from

industry surveys (i.e., Monsanto Canada 1998; Stratus Agri-Marketing Inc. 1998) conducted

between census years. The yearly inputs used (i.e., fertilizer and fuel) data are from Statistics

Canada (various years).

In this study, the estimation of GHG sources and sinks generated from crop production

includes the following:

• GHG sinks from soil carbon sequestration

• GHG emissions from fertilizer application

• GHG emissions from crop residue retention

• GHG emissions from summerfallow practice

• GHG emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation

The estimates of GHG sources and sinks are then used to measure the net GHG, which is defined

as the net balance from GHGs that were emitted or sequestered due to farming practices in land

use and management.

8

5.1. PCEM Coefficients and Data Sources

5.1.1. GHG sinks from soil carbon sequestration (SCS) Soils can be either a source of or sink for CO2 from the atmosphere, depending on current and

historical crop production practices. This source or sink behaviour is primarily influenced by the

photosynthesis process, the incorporation of crop-residue organic matter into soils, CO2 sink or

sequestration, and the decomposition of that organic matter by soil organisms, CO2 source of

emission (Paustian, 2009). The soil organic carbon (SOC) stock reflects the balance between the

amount of carbon (C) loss through the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) and C inputs

to soils through the incorporation of crop residue (Fan et al., 2017). The estimation of soil carbon

sequestration is given by equation 5.1.1:

Equation 5.1.1: Estimation of soil carbon sequestration in the crop sector

𝐶𝑆𝑡 = ∑ ∑[𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡

122

𝑗=1

5

𝑖=1

× 𝑅𝐶𝑖𝑗] × [𝑅𝑖𝑗𝑡 × 𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑗] × 𝐶𝑅𝐶𝑂2𝑀𝑊

Where:

𝑅𝑖𝑗𝑡 =𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡

𝐻𝐼𝑖𝑗𝑡× (1 − 𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡) … … … … (1𝑎)

𝐻𝐼𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖𝑗 + 𝛽𝑖𝑗 × 𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 … … … … (1𝑏)

∑ ∑ =122 𝑗=1

5𝑖=1 summation of crop soil zone and crop activities of the arable land under study

𝐶𝑆𝑡 = soil carbon sequestration in year 𝑡

𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡 = hectares of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝑅𝐶𝑖𝑗 = sequestration rate of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖 (metric tons C ha-1year-1)

𝑅𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡

𝐻𝐼𝑖𝑗𝑡 = the residue of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡, estimated using the total biomass

produced from harvested yield (eq. 1(a)); where 𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 is the amount of crop yield (metric tons ha-1)

of crop activity 𝑗 in crop district 𝑖 in year 𝑡, and 𝐻𝐼𝑖𝑗𝑡 is the harvest index of crop activity 𝑗 in soil

zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡, calculated using equation (1b), where and 𝛼𝑖𝑗 is the intercept and 𝛽𝑖𝑗 is the

coefficient that denotes the relationships between harvest index and crop yield (IPCC, 2006; Fan

et al., 2017)

𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑗 = rate of crop residue input C into soil

𝐶𝑂2𝑀𝑊= the ratio of molecular weight of CO2 to C (=44/12, metric tons CO2 (metric tons C)-1)

9

The adoption of ZT technology has shown to promote C sequestration (Mangalassery, et al., 2014).

ZT is defined as a sustainable system of planting crops into untilled soil that leaves at least 30%

of crop residue on the soil surface after crop planting (or at least 1.1 Mg/ha of residue in critical

soil degradation condition), uses specialized seeding equipment to place seed and fertilizer in the

soil without disturbance, controls weeds by using herbicides, and uses crop rotations to help

improve land structure, break the life cycles of pests and diseases, and control weeds (Carter, 1994;

Phillips and Young, 1973).

The coefficients of carbon sequestration induced by tillage practices were obtained from

several studies in Western Canada. These coefficients range between 0.83 tonne and 0.92 tonne of

CO2eq ha-1 year-1 for a crop-crop rotation under ZT, between 0.73 and 2.2 tonne of CO2eq ha-1

year-1 for a reduced fallow-rotation under ZT, and between 0.18 and 0.83 of tonne year-1 ha-1 year-

1 for a fallow-crop rotation under ZT (Campbell, et al., 2005; McConkey, et al., 2000; 2013). (A

full description of the coefficients used in this study for every soil type is presented in Appendix

A, Table 2.A)

The carbon sequestration coefficients are adjusted to account for the increase in residue

retention under ZT. Crop residue is used to adjust the sequestration rate such that below-average

crop yields reduce the amount of sequestration while above-average crop yields increase the rate

of sequestration. The amount of crop residue varies with the crop and harvest methods. To measure

the amount of crop residue, we followed Fan et al. (2017), who measured the amount of crop

residue as a function of the amount of crop yield and the harvest index. (A full description of the

intercept and slope to measure the harvest index for the major crops grown is presented in

Appendix A, Table 3.A) The coefficient of carbon added to the soil from crop residue (for above-

and below-ground biomass) is estimated by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)

(2006) and Maillard et al. (2018) to be 0.45. This rate also accounts for biomass removal or burning

but does not incorporate factors associated with the impact of long-term temperature and

precipitation. Therefore, a more conservative rate of 0.3 is used in this study.

The model assumes that if management reverts to the previous practice that causes a decline

in the biomass or soil carbon stocks (e.g., when summerfallow area increases), CO2 is released into

the atmosphere. To account for this, we used a negative value of the sequestration coefficient

multiplied by the increase in the area under summerfallow. The increase in summerfallow occurred

10

in 1999 and 2010 due to flooding; in 1987, 1988, 2001 and 2002 due to drought; and in 2005 and

2006 due to low commodity prices.

In this study, we followed the pool approach, which assumes that soil carbon storage

capacity is infinite. Under this approach, carbon stock increases linearly with carbon inputs without

showing any sign of saturating behaviour, thus reaching a new level of carbon equilibrium

(Paustian, 1994; Blair et al., 2006).3 The question of soil carbon saturation has led to extensive

debate in the literature (Campbell et al., 1991; Maillard, et al., 2018; Paustian, 1994; Blair et al.

2006). The cycle of carbon is quite complex with many factors that can influence the rate of

sequestration and the equilibrium level of stored carbon. Inputs such as nitrogen and amount of

crop residue (as influenced by precipitation), along with factors such as soil temperature, affect

the yearly amount of carbon that is available to be sequestered.

5.1.2. GHG emissions from fertilizer application

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission is directly related to the amount of nitrogen (N) fertilizer added to

soils. N2O is mainly produced because of biotic processes, namely nitrification and denitrification,

which are affected by the rate of N fertilizer used, soil type and soil moisture, crop activities, and

the placement of N into soils. Equation (5.1.2) is used to measure the emission from fertilizer

application.

The coefficients used to estimate N2O emissions from N application are adopted from

Rochette et al. (2018) and employ the IPCC Tier 1 default emission factor derived by Bouwman

(1996) for the Canadian Prairie region. For the brown and dark brown soils, the coefficient is equal

to 0.0016 kg N2O-N/kg N, and in the grey and black soils it is equal to 0.003 kg N2O-N/kg N.

These coefficients suggest that soil N2O emissions in the Canadian Prairies region increase with

increased moisture in well-aerated soil types, such as grey and black soils. In addition, to capture

the effect of soil tillage on N2O-N emissions, the coefficients are reduced by 20% in the case of

NT (Rochette et al., 2008; Lemke et al 1999). Rochette et al. (2008) indicate that in the prairies,

when using ZT, N2O emissions can be reduced by placing N fertilizer near the zone of active root

3 While Paustian (1994) and Blair et al. (2006) indicated that carbon saturation is infinite, Campbell et al. (1991),

Chan et al. (2008) and Maillard et al. (2018) indicate that for a certain level of carbon input, soil carbon levels tend

toward equilibrium, limiting the amount and duration of additional carbon storage. They say that by using improved

land management practices, a full carbon cycle is achieved in 20 to 50 years.

11

uptake; the authors verified that the level of N2O fertilizer emissions under ZT is 20% lower than

under CT.

The recommended N rates of fertilizer by soil zone for cereal and oilseed crops are

estimated using data obtained from the provincial Crop Planning Guide (2005) and Statistics

Canada Fertilizer Shipments, CANSIM 001-0068 (1985–2016). These rates range between 19.5

and 136.7 kg N ha-1. For lentils, field peas and other pulse crops, which receive nitrogen when

phosphorus is applied, a rate of 2.5 kg of N ha-1 is applied to all seeded areas in all crop districts.

Equation 5.1.2: Estimation of nitrous oxide emission from fertilizer application the crop

sector

N2O𝑡_𝑁𝑡 = ∑ ∑ 𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡

122

𝑗=1

5

𝑖=1

× 𝑁𝑖𝑗 × 𝑁𝐸𝑖 × 𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑊

Where:

N2O𝑡_𝑁𝑡 = emission from the application of N fertilizer in year 𝑡

∑ ∑ =122 𝑗=1

5𝑖=1 summation of soil zones and crop activities of the arable land under study

𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡 = hectares of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝑁𝑖𝑗 = N rate-requirements of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖

𝑁𝐸𝑖𝑗 = emission rate in soil zone 𝑖

𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑊 = ratio of molecular weights of N2O to N2O‐N= 44/28 (metric tons N2O (metric

tons N2O‐N)‐1)

5.1.3. GHG emissions from crop residue

The coefficient used in the PCEM to account for the nitrification and denitrification of the N

released during the decomposition of crop residues and the resulting impact on the release of N2O

emission into the atmosphere is equal to 0.0125 kg N2O-N/kg N. This rate is a default emission

factor used by the IPCC (1997) to account for all sources of N2O emissions from agricultural soils.

The amount of crop residue is measured using Fan et al. (2017) (a description of the method

used is presented in the previous paragraph: GHG sink from soil carbon sequestration (SCS)).

Nitrogen content of aboveground and belowground residues, and the ratios of below and above

ground residues to harvested yield are obtained from IPCC (2006) (a full description of these rates

12

for the major crops is presented in Appendix A, Table 4.A). Equation (5.1.3) is used to estimate

the emission from crop residue.

Equation 5.1.3: Estimation of nitrous oxide emission from crop residues in the crop Sector

𝑁2𝑂_𝑅𝑡 = ∑ ∑ 𝑅𝑖𝑗𝑡

122

𝑗=1

9

𝑖=1

× (𝑁𝐴𝑗 × 𝑅𝐴𝑗 + 𝑁𝐵𝑗 × 𝑅𝐵𝑗) × 𝑁𝑅 × 𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑊

Where:

𝑁2𝑂_𝑅𝑡 = emission from crop residues above and belowground in year 𝑡

∑ ∑ =122 𝑗=1

5𝑖=1 summation of soil zones and crop activities of the arable land under study

𝑅𝑖𝑗𝑡 = residue of crop activity 𝑗 in soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝑁𝐴𝑗 = N content of aboveground residue for crop 𝑗

𝑅𝐴𝑗 = ratio of above-ground residues to harvest yield for crop 𝑗

𝑁𝐵𝑗 = N content of below-ground residue for crop 𝑗

𝑅𝐵𝑗 = ratio of below-ground residues to harvest yield for crop 𝑗

𝑁𝑅 = default emission factor used for all sources N2O emissions from agricultural soils (IPCC,

2006)

𝑁2𝑂𝑀𝑊 = coefficient that converts N2O_N to N2O (=44/28)

5.1.4. GHG emissions from summerfallow practice

Although no fertilizer is applied during the summerfallow period, several factors may stimulate

the production of N2O emissions from fallow, including higher soil water content, temperature,

soil carbon and nitrogen. Following Rochette et al. (2008), we measured the N2O emissions from

summerfallow as the sum of the N2O emissions from the previous year’s N application and crop

residue multiplied by the fraction of cropland that is under summerfallow for each crop soil zone.

The coefficients used in the PCEM are as defined in the previous paragraphs: GHG emission from

fertilizer application and GHG emission from crop residue. Equation 5.1.4 is used to estimate

emission from summerfallow:

13

Equation 5.1.4: Estimation of nitrous oxide emission from summerfallow in the crop sector

𝑁2𝑂_𝑆𝑡 = ∑(𝑁2𝑂_𝑁𝑖𝑡 + 𝑁2𝑂_𝑅𝑖𝑡) ×

5

𝑖

𝐹𝑆𝑖𝑡

where:

𝑁2𝑂_𝑆𝑡 = 𝑁2𝑂 emissions due to the summerfallow practice in year 𝑡

∑ 5𝑖 = summation of the crop soil zones arable land

𝑁2𝑂_𝑁𝑖𝑡 = 𝑁2𝑂 emissions from nitrogen application in crop soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝑁2𝑂_𝑅𝑖𝑡 = 𝑁2𝑂 emissions from residue retention in crop soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝐹𝑆𝑖𝑡 = fraction of cropland that is under summerfallow in crop soil zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

5.1.5. GHG emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation

The coefficient used in the PCEM is assumed to be equal to 74.06 g/MJ, a value obtained from

Environment Canada (2013), which represents the amount of CO2eq emitted from powered

equipment.

For fuel used in crop production including seeding, crop protection and harvest operations, the

rates of fuel consumption of different types of powered equipment (gigajoules (GJ) ha-1), is

obtained from Gill et al. (2000), the coefficients were developed in terms of energy value of fuel

used (diesel and gasoline) in the cropping activities in the Prairies.

Regarding energy used for crop inputs and outputs transportation, the fuel coefficients used

in the PCEM were developed from Agriculture Canada Research Centre data using crop inputs

and crop output along with energy consumption rates for powered equipment obtained from Gill

et al (2000) and Nagy (1999). These consumption rates were developed assuming a 25 km round

trip for crop inputs and grain sales based on the crop yields from the research plot studies.

However, to account for the increase/decrease in crop production and hauling distance for each

year, the energy consumption rates were adjusted using data obtained from Statistics Canada,

Table 25-10-0029 - Supply and demand of primary and secondary energy in terajoules, annual;

Table 128-0003 - Supply and demand of Diesel in natural units, quarterly; and Statistics Canada

Table 001-0071 Small Area Data. Equation (5) is used to estimate the emission from fuel used for

crop production and transportation.

14

Equation 5.1.5: Estimation of Carbon Dioxide Emission from Fuel Used on Farm in the Crop

Sector

𝐶𝑂2𝐹𝑡= ∑ ∑[(𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡

122

𝑗=1

5

𝑖=1

× 𝐹𝐶1) + (𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡 × 𝐹𝐶2 + 𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 × 𝐹𝐶3 )]

where

𝐶𝑂2_𝐹𝑡 = 𝐶𝑂2 flux to the atmosphere caused by energy use and fossil fuel consumption in year 𝑡

∑ ∑ =122 𝑗=1

5𝑖=1 Summation of crop soil zones and crop activities of the arable land under study

𝐴𝑖𝑗𝑡 = hectares of crop activity 𝑗 in crop zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝑌𝑖𝑗𝑡 = crop production of crop activity 𝑗 in crop zone 𝑖 in year 𝑡

𝐹𝐶1 = energy coefficients for powered equipment used on farm

𝐹𝐶2 = energy coefficients reflect the distance to move outputs and inputs

𝐹𝐶3 = energy coefficients reflect the size of crop production

15

6. Results: Greenhouse Gas Quantity and value in the Crop

Sector: Alberta and Manitoba

Sub-sections 6.1 and 6.2 presents the results of the GHG measures in Alberta and Manitoba crop

sectors, respectively.

6.1. Alberta Results

6.1.1. Alberta estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) (soil sink)

Alberta estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) are presented in Figure 6.1.1 (a) and (b) from

1985 to 2016. At the province level, Figure 6.1.1(a) shows that from 1985 to 1989, SCS was

negligible, ranging between 0.05 and 0.10 Mt CO2eq. Starting in the 1990s, SCS increased in most

of the years; it went from 0.10 Mt CO2eq in 1990 to 2.33 Mt in 2005 and to 6.06 Mt CO2eq in

2016. For the entire period 1985-2016, total SCS was 67 Mt CO2eq (Alberta annual SCS estimates

are presented in Appendix B, Table 1.B. and Table 2.B.).

By assigning different values of $5, $10 and $15 to the price of emitting a tonne of CO2eq,

the total values of SCS for the entire period are $281 million, $562 million and $843 million,

respectively. (Prices were deflated using the consumer price index (CPI) deflator and expressed in

2018 dollars (Statistics Canada, Table 18-10-0005-01, 2018)) (Alberta annual SCS value estimates

are presented in Appendix B, Table 1.B). Using a 5% discount rate, the present value of SCS, over

the period 1985-2016, $204 million, $409 million and $613 million, at a price $5, $10 and $15 of

emitting a tonne of CO2eq; respectively.

The widespread adoption of ZT in Alberta has enabled higher C return to soil through more

intensified crop rotations, residue retention, and reduced SOM decomposition rates associated with

summerfallow and tillage practices. Moreover, ZT increases soil water storage capacity, which in

turn affects the quantity of crop residues produced, increases the amount of organic matter input

into the soil, and produces larger amounts of biomass, leading to an increase in soil carbon stocks

(Doran et al., 1998). The adoption of ZT went from around 3% of Alberta’s total cropland in 1985

to 31% in 2005 and to 68% in 2016 (Statistics Canada, Table 32-10-0162-01, formerly

CANSIM 004-0010; Monsanto Canada, 1998; and Stratus Agri-Marketing Inc., 1998).

During the same period, extended crop rotation practice, which is often discussed along

with ZT adoption, replaced summerfallow practice in Alberta. In 1985, around two million

hectares were under summerfallow. This area decreased by 58% in 2005 and by 88% in 2016

16

(Statistics Canada, Table 32-10-0153-01, formerly CANSIM 004-0002). Land under

summerfallow had likely lost much of its SOC under conventional tillage in the past and as such

was considered the major contributor to SCS under ZT tillage and residue management practices.

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.1 (b) shows that starting in the 1990s, SCS increased in

most years. The largest increase in SCS was at the Dark-brown soil type zone, which accounts for

around 29% of the total SCS in Alberta. This is followed by the Gray soil type (20%), Thin-black

(20%), Thick-black (19%), and Brown soil type (12%). Soil carbon sequestration estimates are

mainly affected by the carbon sequestration coefficients used in the PCEM (Appendix A, Table

2.A), which are higher in the well-aerated soil types such as grey and black soils, and by the rate

of ZT adoption in every soil zone type. The adoption of ZT went from around 10% of Alberta’s

Brown soil cropland in 1985 to 78% in 2016, in the Dark-brown soil, the adoption of ZT went

from around 5% in 1985 to 77% in 2016, in the Thin-black soil, the adoption went from around

2% in 1985 to 68% in 2016, in the Thick-black soil, the adoption went from 1% in 1985 to 52%

in 2016, and in the Gray soil type, the adoption of ZT went from 1.5% in 1985 to 61% in 2016

(Alberta ZT adoption rates by provincial and soil zone level for the period 1991-2016 are presented

in Appendix A, Table 5.A).

Figure 6.1.1. Alberta Soil Carbon Sequestration (1985–2016)

(a) Alberta aggregate level

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Mt

CO

2e

q

Alberta

17

(b) Alberta soil zone level

6.1.2. Alberta estimates of emission from fertilizer application

Over the period 1985-2016, total emissions from fertilizer nitrogen application was 38.69 Mt

CO2eq. Fertilizer emissions increased from 0.99 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 1.1 in 2005 and to 1.59 Mt

CO2eq in 2016. (Annual estimates of emissions from fertilizer nitrogen application are presented

in Appendix B, Table 3.B). At the provincial level, Figure 6.1.2 (a) shows that emissions from

fertilizer application increased by 61% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This increase was

mainly due to intensified crop production by means of increasing crop rotation and reducing

summerfallow frequency, which consequently increased the use of fertilizer input. The amount of

fertilizer nitrogen input increased from 0.353 Mt in 1985 to 0.435 Mt in 2005, and to 0.675 Mt in

2016, whilst crop production increased from 12.5 Mt in 1985 to 20 Mt in 2005 and to 27 Mt in

2016 (Statistics Canada, 2017).

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.2 (b) shows that the largest increase in nitrogen emission

was for the Brown soil type. Fertilizer emissions increased in the Brown soil type by more than

117% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This is followed by Dark-brown soil (80%), Gray

(57%), Thin-black (51%), and Thick-black soil type (48%) (Alberta annual estimates for emissions

from nitrogen fertilizer application at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table 3.B).

These estimates are mainly affected by the rate of fertilizer application in every soil zone type, and

by the coefficients of N2O emissions used in the PCEM, which are higher in the well-aerated soil

types.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

Mt

CO

2eq

Brown D.Brown Thin Black Thick Black Gray

18

Figure 6.1.2. Alberta Emission from Nitrogen Fertilizer Application (1985–2016)



6.1.3. Alberta estimates of emissions from crop residue

Over the period 1985-2016, total emissions from residue retention was 48.38 Mt CO2eq. N2O

emission from the decomposition of residue increased from 1.067 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 1.676 in

2005 and to 1.993 Mt CO2eq in 2016. (Alberta annual estimates for emissions from residue

decomposition are presented in Appendix B, Table 4.B). At the provincial level, the estimates of

emissions from crop residue are illustrated in Figure 6.1.3 (a), which shows that emissions

increased by nearly 87% between 1985 and 2016. This increase was mainly due to the replacement

of summerfallow by continuous cropping during the same period, leading to an increase in the area

covered by crop residue. Notice that the same amount of N2O emission is released when residue

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Alberta

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Alberta Brown D.Brown Thin Black Thick Black Gray

19

is incorporated into soil via ZT or CT practices. However, incorporating residue into soil through

the use of CT reduces soil carbon stocks and increases the emission of CO2 through burning fuel

to operate tillage equipment (Ogle et al., 2014).

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.3 (b) shows that the largest increase in crop residue

emission was for the Brown soil type. Residue emissions increase in the Brown soil type by more

than threefold between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This is followed by Dark-brown soil (112%),

Thin-black (82%), Gray (62%), and Thick-black soil type (37%) (Alberta annual estimates for

emissions from residue decomposition at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table

4.B).

Figure 6.1.3. Alberta Emission from Crop Residue (1985–2016)



0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Alberta

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%


20

6.1.4. Estimates of emissions from summerfallow

As indicated in the previous section, land under summerfallow stimulates the production of N2O

emissions. Over the period 1985-2016, total emission from summerfallow was 9.125 Mt CO2eq.

N2O emission from fallow decreased from 0.395 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.229 in 2005 and to 0.071

Mt CO2eq in 2016. (Annual estimates for emissions from summerfallow are presented in Appendix

B, Table 5.B). This decrease is illustrated in Figure 6.1.4 (a) and (b).

At the provincial level, emissions from summerfallow dropped by nearly 82% between

1985 and 2016. This decrease was due to the significant reduction in the area under summerfallow,

which decreased by around 88% over the period 1985-2016. Summerfallow area decreased from

2.02 Mha in 1985 to 0.85 Mha in 2005 and to 0.24 Mha in 2016 (Statistics Canada, 2017).

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.4 (b) shows emissions from summerfallow decreased in

all soil types in Alberta. The largest decrease in summerfallow emission was in the Thin-black

soil type, which decreased by about 90% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. (Figure 6.1.4 (b)).

This is followed by Dark-brown and Thick-black soil type (87%), Gray (83%), and Brown soil

type (67%) (Figure 6.1.4 (b)) (Alberta annual estimates for emissions from summerfallow at the

soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table 5.B).

21

Figure 6.1.4. Alberta Emission from Summerfallow (1985–2016)



6.1.5. Alberta estimates of emissions from fuel used in crop production and transportation

Fuel used for crop production: over the period 1985-2016, emissions from fuel used for crop

production was 27.72 Mt CO2eq. Figure 6.1.5. (a) shows that emissions from fuel decreased by

28% over the period 1985-2016, it decreased from 1.061 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.765 in 2005 and

to 0.760 Mt CO2eq in 2016. (Annual estimates of emissions from fuel used for crop production are

presented in Appendix B, Table 6.B). The decrease in emissions from fuel used for crop production

was mainly due to the switch from CT to ZT in Alberta, which led to a significant reduction in fuel

used to operate equipment to produce crops. Particularly, the reduction was mainly in the use of

tractors for seeding and weed control. For instance, the number of tractors hours decreased from

800 hours per year under CT to 200 hours per year under ZT (Nagy and Schoney, 2001).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Alberta

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%


22

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.5 (b) shows that emissions from fuel used for crop

production decreased in all soil types. This decreased was larger in the Thin-black (33%), Thick-

black (32%), and Gray soil type (34%) than that in the Brown (25%) and Dark Brown (21%) soil

zone zones (Figure 6.1.5 (b)) (Alberta annual estimates for emissions from fuel used for crop

production at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table 6.B).

Figure 6.1.5. Alberta Emission from Fuel in Crop Production (1985–2016)



Fuel used for transportation: unlike emissions from fuel used for crop production, which were

reduced, the emissions from fuel consumption for the transportation of crop outputs and inputs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Alberta

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


23

increased between 1985 and 2016. Over this period, total emissions from fuel for transportation

was 28.72 Mt CO2eq. Figure 6.1.6 (a) shows that total emissions from fuel increased by eightfold

between 1985 and 2016. CO2 emission increased from 0.202 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 1.004 in 2005

and to 1.611 Mt CO2eq in 2016 (Annual emission amounts from fuel used in transportation are

presented in Appendix B, Table 7.B). At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.6 (b) shows that emissions

from fuel used in transportation increased in all soil zones. This increase is higher in the Brown

soil zone compared to other soil zones in Alberta (Alberta annual estimates for emissions from

fuel used for transportation at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table 7.B).

This increase was due to the following factors:

(1) a reduction in the number of farms, which increased hauling distance.

(2) an increase in farm size, which resulted in longer distances being traveled from the

farmyard site to the farmed land.

(3) a reduction in the number of grain bins in the field as farmers centralized operations.

(4) a decrease in the number of grain elevators and delivery points in Alberta. Between

1985 and 2016 the number of grain elevators and grain delivery points declined from

600 to 77 and from 333 to 59, respectively. This decrease led to a significant increase

in the distance between farms and delivery points. Longer distances to grain delivery

points also affect the amount of grain that can be delivered directly off the combine,

thereby increasing the distance grain is hauled, at least for a portion of the harvest.

(5) the consolidation of farm crop input suppliers as many of the grain delivery points also

sold crop inputs.

24

Figure 6.1.6. Alberta Emission from Fuel in Transportation (1985–2016)



Total emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation was 56.44 Mt CO2eq for the

entire period of 1985 to 2016. Figure 6.1.7 (a) shows that total emissions from fuel increased by

88% between 1985 and 2016. At the soil zone level, Figure 6.1.7 (b) shows that emissions from

total fuel emissions increased in all soil zones (Alberta annual estimates for total fuel emissions at

the provincial level and at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix B, Table 8.B).

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

900%

Alberta

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

1200%

1400%


25

Figure 6.1.7. Alberta Emission from Total Fuel used in crop production and

Transportation (1985–2016)



6.1.6. Alberta total crop production emission quantities and values

Figure 6.1.8 shows that total crop production emissions, measured as the sum of emissions from

fertilizer application, residue decomposition, summerfallow and fuel use, increased from 3.71 Mt

CO2eq in 1985 to 4.77 Mt CO2eq in 2005 and to 6.02 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Total emissions for the

entire period of 1985 to 2016 was equal to 152.61 Mt CO2eq. Assigning different values of $5,

$10 and $15 to the price of emitting a tonne of CO2eq, the total value of emissions for the entire

period was $0.560 billion, $1.121 billion and $1.681 billion respectively (prices are deflated using

the consumer price index (CPI) deflator and expressed in 2018 dollars (Statistics Canada, Table

18-10-0005-01, 2018)). (Annual emissions quantities and values are presents in Appendix B, Table

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Alberta

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%


26

9.B). Using a 5% discount rate, the present value of crop production emissions, over the period

1985-2016, is $314 million, $628 million and $914 million at prices of $5, $10 and $15 for emitting

one tonne of CO2eq; respectively.

Figure 6.1.8. Alberta Total Crop Production Emissions (1985–2016)

6.1.7. Alberta Net GHG Balance and Value for the Alberta Crop Sector

Figure 6.1.9 juxtaposes estimates of net GHG balance for the period 1985-2016. Net GHG balance

is measured as the net balance from GHGs that were emitted or sequestered (net GHG balance =

GHG source - GHG sink). As shown in Figure 6.1.9 and Table 1, starting in 1996, net GHG balance

in the Alberta crop sector had decreased for most of the years; it decreased from 3.665 Mt CO2eq

in 1985 to 2.45 in 2005 and to (0.035) Mt CO2eq in 2016 (parentheses indicate net sink). The net

GHG balance was net sink in 2013 and 2016, and equal to (0.434 Mt CO2eq) and (0.035 Mt

CO2eq), respectively. The net GHG balance was a cumulative net sink for the period 2013-2016.

Consequently, by assigning different values of $5, $10 and $15 to the price of emitting a tonne of

CO2eq, Table 1 shows that the negative/debit value of net GHG decreased for most of the years.

Particularly, the decrease is very significant during the period 2007-2016. For instance, at the $10

price of emission a tonne of CO2eq, Table 1 shows that the negative/debit value decreased from

($18.4) million in 1985, to a positive/credit value equal to $0.335 million in 2016. Using a 5%

discount rate, the present value of net GHG emission balance, over the period 1985-2016, is $109

million, $219 million and $328 million at prices of $5, $10 and $15 for emitting one tonne of

CO2eq; respectively.

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Mt

CO

2eq

Alberta total crop production emissions

27

Figure 6.1.9. Alberta Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016)

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mt

CO

2-e

q


28

Table 1. Alberta Net GHG Balance and Value (1985–2016)

Year

Alberta net GHG balance (Mt

CO2eq)

(parentheses indicate net

sequestration or sink)

Alberta net GHG balance value

(parentheses indicate debit value)

(millions in $2018)

CO2eq emitting price

$5 $10 $15

1985 3.665 (9.197) (18.394) (27.591)

1986 4.102 (10.560) (21.121) (31.681)

1987 4.037 (10.696) (21.392) (32.088)

1988 4.064 (11.057) (22.115) (33.172)

1989 4.219 (11.893) (23.785) (35.678)

1990 4.301 (12.560) (25.120) (37.681)

1991 4.111 (12.533) (25.065) (37.598)

1992 3.879 (11.969) (23.938) (35.907)

1993 4.075 (12.773) (25.546) (38.319)

1994 3.988 (12.514) (25.027) (37.541)

1995 3.994 (12.770) (25.540) (38.310)

1996 4.207 (13.627) (27.255) (40.882)

1997 3.860 (12.691) (25.383) (38.074)

1998 3.854 (12.785) (25.570) (38.355)

1999 3.874 (13.055) (26.110) (39.164)

2000 3.494 (12.069) (24.138) (36.208)

2001 2.919 (10.325) (20.651) (30.976)

2002 2.884 (10.424) (20.849) (31.273)

2003 2.582 (9.597) (19.194) (28.791)

2004 2.600 (9.845) (19.689) (29.534)

2005 2.450 (9.490) (18.979) (28.469)

2006 2.574 (10.180) (20.360) (30.541)

2007 2.379 (9.638) (19.275) (28.913)

2008 1.713 (7.118) (14.236) (21.354)

2009 1.397 (5.824) (11.647) (17.471)

2010 0.464 (1.976) (3.953) (5.929)

2011 0.254 (1.117) (2.233) (3.350)

2012 0.325 (1.457) (2.914) (4.370)

2013 (0.434) 1.968 3.935 5.903

2014 0.159 (0.736) (1.471) (2.207)

2015 0.216 (1.018) (2.035) (3.053)

2016 (0.035) 0.168 0.335 0.503

29

6.2. Manitoba Results

6.2.1. Manitoba estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) (soil sink)

Figure 6.2.1 (a) and (b) shows the estimates of soil carbon sequestration (SCS) in Manitoba from

1985 to 2016. At the province level, Figure 6.2.1 (a) shows that from 1985 to 1988, SCS was low,

ranging between 0.096 and 0.1 Mt CO2eq. Starting in the 1990s, SCS increased in most of the

years; it went from 0.16 Mt CO2eq in 1990 to 0.5 Mt in 2005 and to 1.1 Mt CO2eq in 2016. SCS

decreased in 1999, 2005, 2011, and 2014 due to flooding and wet springs and the increase use of

tillage and summerfallow practices to dry out the soil. For the entire period 1985-2016, total SCS

was 17.4 Mt CO2eq (Manitoba annual SCS estimates are presented in Appendix C, Table 1.C and

Table 2.C). By assigning different values of $5, $10 and $15 to the price of emitting a tonne of

CO2eq, the total values of SCS for the entire period are $70 million, $139 million and $209 million,

respectively. (Prices were deflated using the consumer price index (CPI) deflator and expressed in

2018 dollars (Statistics Canada, Table 18-10-0005-01, 2018)) (Manitoba annual SCS value

estimates are presented in Appendix C, Table 1.C). Using a 5% discount rate, the present value of

SCS, over the period 1985-2016, is $46 million, $ 92 million and $137 million, at a price of $5,

$10 and $15; respectively. At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.2 (b) shows that most of the increase

in SCS was at the Thin-black, and Thick-black soil zones. In the Thin-black soil zone, SCS

increased from 0.04 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.634 Mt CO2eq in 2016, in the Thick-black soil zone,

SCS increased from 0.056 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.4 Mt CO2eq in 2016.

Soil carbon sequestration estimates are mainly affected by the carbon sequestration

coefficients used in the PCEM (Appendix A, Table 2.A), which are higher in the well-aerated soil

types such as grey and black soils, and by the rate of ZT adoption in every soil zone type. On

average, the adoption of ZT in Manitoba was low compared to the adoption in Saskatchewan and

Alberta, and mostly restricted to the Western side of the province due to the dryer weather

conditions. In 2016, about 20% of total cropland in Manitoba was under ZT, a reduction of 4%

compared to 2011. At the soil zone level, in 2016, the adoption of ZT was equal to 52.6% in Thick-

black soil zone and 37.3% in the Thin-black soil zone, while the adoption was equal to 0.8% and

7.5% in the Dark-brown and Gray soil zones, respectively (Manitoba ZT adoption rates by

provincial soil zone level for the period 1991-2016 are presented in Appendix A, Table 6.A). The

following factors, among others, affected the low adoption of ZT and the continuous use of tillage

30

practices in Manitoba: (1) since 1999, Manitoba has experienced high rates of precipitation,

combined with major flood events in 2011 and 2014. As a result, more tillage and crop residue

incorporation were used to dry out the soil; (2) the Dark-brown soil zone is very small, mostly

centred around Carberry Manitoba, the soil is sandy loam, and recently was heavily used for

growing potatoes. Potato production uses a lot of tillage, pre-seed, row cultivating and hilling over

the growing season and harvest, then uses tillage to level the land so cereal can be grown in the

following year; (3) in the Eastern side of the province, soils are high in clay content and moisture.

Soil moisture is mainly due to spring flooding of the Red River, thus farmers in this area heavily

till the soil to dry out and warm up soil for spring seeding. In addition, - Manitoba has experienced

an expansion of long season, heat-loving crops like soybeans and corn at the expense of durum,

lentil and field pea area, which require intensive tillage in the early spring for soil warming.

Figure 6.2.1. Manitoba Soil Carbon Sequestration (1985–2016)

(a) Manitoba aggregate level

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Mt

CO

2eq

Manitoba

31

(b) Manitoba soil zone level

6.2.2. Manitoba estimates of emissions from fertilizer application

Over the period 1985-2016, total emissions from fertilizer nitrogen application was 31.37 Mt

CO2eq. Fertilizer emissions increased from 0.770 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.845 in 2005 and to 1.316

Mt CO2eq in 2016. (Annual estimates of emissions from fertilizer nitrogen application are

presented in Appendix C, Table 3.C). At the provincial level, Figure 6.2.2 (a) shows that emissions

from fertilizer application increased by 71% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This increase

was mainly due to intensified crop production by means of increasing crop rotation and reducing

summerfallow frequency, which consequently increased the use of fertilizer input. The amount of

fertilizer nitrogen input increased from 0.236 Mt in 1985 to 0.418 Mt in 2016, whilst crop

production increased from 10.5 Mt in 1985 to 13.2 Mt in 2016 (Statistics Canada, 2017). The

increase in production is significantly less on a percentage basis compared to Alberta or

Saskatchewan as Manitoba had traditionally low levels of summerfallow and higher productive

soils.

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.2 (b) shows that the largest increase in nitrogen emission

was at the Dark-brown soil type. Fertilizer emissions increase in the Dark-brown soil type by more

93% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This is followed by Thin-black (83%), Gray (69%), and

Thick Black soil zone (63%) (Manitoba annual estimates for emissions from nitrogen fertilizer

application at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix C, Table 3.C). These estimates are

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Mt

CO

2eq

D.Brown Thin Black Thick Black Gray

32

mainly affected by the rate of fertilizer application in every soil zone type, and by the coefficients

of N2O emissions used in the PCEM, which are higher in the well-aerated soil types. In addition,

the low level of adoption of ZT in Manitoba decreases the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer

application and, thus, increases the N2O emissions.

Figure 6.2.2. Manitoba emission from Nitrogen Fertilizer Application (1985–2016)



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Manitoba

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%


33

6.2.3. Manitoba estimates of emissions from crop residue

Over the period 1985-2016, total emissions from residue retention was 22.45 Mt CO2eq. N2O

emission from the decomposition of residue increased from 0.738 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.889 Mt

CO2eq in 2016. This increase is illustrated in Figure 6.2.3 (a), which shows that emissions from

residue decomposition increased by nearly 20% between 1985 and 2016. Emissions from residue

decomposition in Manitoba is significantly lower when compared to that in the other provinces on

the prairies. This increase was mainly due the continuous use of tillage practices and the

incorporation of residue into soil to dry out soil. At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.3 (b) shows that

between 1985 and 2016 residue emissions increase in the Dark-brown soil (18%), Thin-black

(22%), Gray (19%), and Thick-black soil type (19%) (Manitoba annual estimates for emissions

from residue decomposition at the provincial and soil zone level are presented in Appendix C,

Table 4.C.).

Figure 6.2.3. Manitoba Emission from Crop Residue (1985–2016)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Manitoba

34


6.2.4. Manitoba estimates of emissions from summerfallow (1985-2016)

Over the period 1985-2016, total emission from summerfallow was about 31 Mt CO2eq. N2O

emission from fallow decreased from 0.097 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.016 Mt CO2eq in 2016.

(Manitoba annual estimates for emissions from summerfallow are presented in Appendix C, Table

5.C.). This decrease is illustrated in Figure 6.2.4 (a), which shows that Manitoba’s emission from

summerfallow dropped by 83% between 1985 (base year) and 2016. This decrease was due to the

significant reduction in the area under summerfallow, which decreased by around 90% over the

period 1985-2016. Summerfallow area decreased from 0.4 Mha in 1985 to 0.04 Mha in 2016

(Statistics Canada, 2017). Figure 6.2.4 (a) shows that a significant increase in summerfallow

emissions occurred in 1999, 2005, 2011 and 2014 due to the increased use of tillage and fallow

practices to reduce moisture and dry out wet soil due to flooding and wet springs.

Summerfallow was largely replaced by extending the crop rotation, which contributed to

higher and more diversified sources of farm income. The continuous development of the canola,

soybeans, pulse, potato and corn industries made the crop rotation practice more feasible. The

breeding of new crop varieties, along with new seed, land rollers, flexible harvest headers, and

improved agronomic knowledge, all improved the economic feasibility of extending rotational

crop production.

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.4 (b) shows that emissions from summerfallow decreased

in all soil types over the period 1985-2016, with the exception of the years 1999, 2005, 2011 and

2014 due to flooding and wet springs which required farmers to increase their summerfallow

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%


35

operations to dry out soil. During the flood years, Figure 6.2.4 (b) shows that the increase in

summerfallow emissions was more significant in the more affected soil zone such as the Thin-

black and Thick-black.

Between 1985 (base year) and 2016, the largest decrease in summerfallow emission was

in the Thin-black soil zone, which decreased by about 87%. This is followed by the Thick-black

(81%), Dark-brown (78%), and Gray (76%) (Manitoba annual estimates for emissions from

summerfallow at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix C, Table 5.C).

Figure 6.2.4. Manitoba Emission from Summerfallow (1985–2016)



0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

19

85

1986

19

87

19

88

19

89

1990

19

91

19

92

19

93

1994

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

2013

20

14

20

15

20

16

Manitoba

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700%

800%

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

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07

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08

20

09

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10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16


36

6.2.5. Manitoba estimates of emissions from fuel used for crop production and

transportation

Fuel used for crop production: over the period 1985-2016, emissions from fuel used for crop

production was 13.4 Mt CO2eq. Figure 6.2.5. (a) shows that emissions from fuel decreased by 25%

over the period 1985-2016, it decreased from 0.5 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 0.38Mt CO2eq in 2016.

(Annual estimates of emissions from fuel used for crop production are presented in Appendix C,

Table 6.C.). The decrease in emissions from fuel used for crop production was mainly due to the

reduction of summerfallow practices, which led to a significant reduction in fuel used to operate

tillage equipment during the fallow season.

At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.5 (b) shows that emissions from fuel used for crop

production decreased in all soil types between 1985 and 2016. This decreased was larger in the

Dark-brown (33%), Thin-black and Gray (30%), than in the Thick-black soil zone (21%) (Figure

6.2.5 (b)) (Manitoba annual estimates for emissions from fuel used for crop production at the soil

zone level are presented in Appendix C, Table 6.C).

Figure 6.2.5. Manitoba emission from fuel used in crop production (1985–2016)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Manitoba

37


Fuel used for transportation: Over the period 1985-2016, total emissions from fuel for

transportation was 10.4 Mt CO2eq. Figure 6.2.6 (a) shows that total emissions from fuel increased

by about fivefold between 1985 (base year) and 2016. CO2 emission increased from 0.12 Mt CO2eq

in 1985 to 0.35 in 2005 and to 0.6 Mt CO2eq in 2016. At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.6 (b) shows

that, between 1985 and 2016, emissions from fuel used in transportation increased in all soil zones

by nearly fourfold. (Manitoba annual estimates for emissions from fuel used for transportation at

the provincial and soil zone level are presented in Appendix C, Table 7.C).

The increase in the emission from fuel in transportation was mainly due to the increase in

the distance by which crop outputs and inputs were moved. This was mainly due to the following

factors: the reduction in the number of farms accompanied by the increase in farm size and

reduction in the number of grain bins in the field, which increased hauling distance and the distance

being traveled from the farm yard to the farmed land; the decrease in the number of grain elevators

and delivery points in Manitoba, where, between 1985 and 2016, the number of grain elevators

decreased from 305 to 82, and the number of grain delivery point decreased from 205 to 70; and

the consolidation of farm crop input suppliers as many of the grain delivery points also sold crop

inputs.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%1

98

5

1986

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

1991

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

1996

19

97

19

98

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2001

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11

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20

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20

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20

15

20

16


38

Figure 6.2.6. Manitoba Emission from Fuel in Transportation (1985–2016)



Total emissions from fuel used for crop production and transportation was 23.76 Mt CO2eq for the

entire period of 1985 to 2016. Figure 6.2.7 (a) shows that total emissions from fuel increased by

55% between 1985 and 2016. At the soil zone level, Figure 6.2.7 (b) shows that emissions from

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

Manitoba

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%


39

total fuel emissions increased in all soil zones (Manitoba annual estimates for total fuel emissions

at the provincial level and at the soil zone level are presented in Appendix C, Table 8.C).

Figure 6.2.7. Manitoba Emission from Total Fuel in Production and Transportation (1985–

2016)



6.2.6. Manitoba total crop production emission quantities and values

For the entire period from 1985 to 2016, total crop production emissions, measured as the sum of

emissions from fertilizer application, residue decomposition, summerfallow and fuel use, was

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

19

85

1986

19

87

19

88

19

89

1990

19

91

19

92

19

93

1994

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

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06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

2013

20

14

20

15

20

16

Manitoba

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

1995

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

2006

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

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11

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12

2013

20

14

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15

20

16


40

equal to 81 Mt CO2eq. Figure 6.2.8. shows that total emissions increased from 2.2 Mt CO2eq in

1985, to 2.3 in 2005, and to 3.2 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Assigning different values of $5, $10 and $15

to the price of emitting a tonne of CO2eq, the total value of emissions for the entire period was

$296 million, $591 million and $887 million respectively (prices are deflated using the consumer

price index (CPI) deflator and expressed in 2018 dollars (Statistics Canada, Table 18-10-0005-01,

2018)). (Annual emissions quantities and values are presents in Appendix C, Table 9.C). Using a

5% discount rate, the present value of crop production emissions, over the period 1985-2016, is

$164 million, $329 million and $493 million at prices of $5, $10 and $15 for emitting one tonne

of CO2eq; respectively.

Figure 6.2.8. Manitoba Total Crop Production Emissions (1985–2016)

6.2.7. Manitoba Net GHG Balance and Value for the Manitoba Crop Sector

Net GHG balance is measured as the net balance from GHGs that were emitted or sequestered (net

GHG balance = GHG source - GHG sink). Figure 6.2.9 juxtaposes estimates of net GHG balance

for the Manitoba crop sector over the period 1985-2016. Figure 6.2.9 shows that although soil

carbon sequestration (SCS) increased from 0.097 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to about 1.1 Mt CO2eq in

2016 this increase wasn’t large enough to offset the increase in emissions from crop production,

which increased from 2.2 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 3.2 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Over the period 1985-2016,

annual net GHG has stayed at about the same balance level for most of the years, net GHG balance

was 2.1 Mt CO2eq in both 1985 and 2016. The exception was in the years of 2009, 2010, 2012 and

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Mt

CO

2eq

Manitoba Total Emissions

41

2013, where net GHG balance slightly decreased and ranged between 1.5 Mt CO2eq and 1.7 Mt

CO2eq (Figure 6.2.9). By assigning different values of $5, $10 and $15 to the price of emitting a

tonne of CO2eq, Table 2 shows that the value of the annual net GHG was negative/debit for all

years between 1985 and 2016. For instance, at $10 price of emission a tonne of CO2eq, Table 2

shows that the negative/debit value of net GHG increased from ($10) million in 1985 to ($20)

million in 2016. Using a 5% discount rate, the present value of the net GHG balance, over the

period 1985-2016, is $119 million, $237 million and $356 million at prices of $5, $10 and $15 for

emitting one tonne of CO2eq; respectively

Figure 6.2.9. Manitoba Net GHG Balance for the Crop Sector (1985-2016)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Mt

CO

2-e

q


42

Table 2. Manitoba Net GHG Balance and Value (1985–2016)

Year

Manitoba net GHG balance

(Mt CO2eq)

(parentheses indicate net

sequestration or sink)

Manitoba net GHG balance value (parentheses

indicate debit value)

(millions in $2018)


$5 $10 $15

1985 2.135 (5.358) (10.716) (16.074)

1986 2.133 (5.492) (10.984) (16.476)

1987 2.010 (5.325) (10.650) (15.975)

1988 1.910 (5.196) (10.392) (15.588)

1989 1.952 (5.502) (11.003) (16.505)

1990 2.122 (6.197) (12.395) (18.592)

1991 2.136 (6.512) (13.024) (19.536)

1992 2.144 (6.615) (13.231) (19.846)

1993 2.080 (6.518) (13.037) (19.555)

1994 2.150 (6.747) (13.494) (20.240)

1995 2.093 (6.693) (13.386) (20.079)

1996 2.168 (7.021) (14.042) (21.062)

1997 2.010 (6.607) (13.213) (19.820)

1998 1.935 (6.418) (12.836) (19.254)

1999 2.090 (7.042) (14.084) (21.126)

2000 2.039 (7.042) (14.085) (21.127)

2001 1.964 (6.947) (13.894) (20.841)

2002 1.921 (6.946) (13.891) (20.837)

2003 1.978 (7.352) (14.704) (22.056)

2004 1.978 (7.492) (14.985) (22.477)

2005 1.826 (7.074) (14.148) (21.222)

2006 1.849 (7.312) (14.624) (21.935)

2007 1.952 (7.906) (15.812) (23.718)

2008 1.942 (8.069) (16.138) (24.207)

2009 1.575 (6.563) (13.126) (19.689)

2010 1.713 (7.288) (14.577) (21.865)

2011 2.126 (9.355) (18.710) (28.065)

2012 1.504 (6.738) (13.476) (20.214)

2013 1.731 (7.841) (15.682) (23.523)

2014 2.061 (9.559) (19.118) (28.678)

2015 1.938 (9.115) (18.230) (27.345)

2016 2.103 (10.067) (20.134) (30.201)

43

7. Conclusion and Remarks

This study measures the GHG emissions in the Alberta and Manitoba crop sectors during the

period of 1985 to 2016. To do this, we compile and analyzes data from various sources and use

the Prairie Crop Energy Model (PCEM). The model systematically assesses the long-run

contribution of different farming practices and inputs use to GHGs. The quantities of GHGs are

then expressed in real dollars to measure the dollar value of these gases. The 2016 estimates are

compared to those of 2005 and 1985 to track the historical progress of GHG emissions. Results

are presented annually at the provincial and soil type zones for the period 1985-2016.

In the Alberta crop sector, we found that the adoption of sustainable practices, such as ZT

and agronomic practices associated with ZT, enabled the crop sector to sequester more than 67 Mt

CO2eq over the entire period from 1985 to 2016. Soil carbon sequestration (GHG) increased from

0.05 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 2.33 Mt CO2eq in 2005 and to 6.06 Mt CO2eq in 2016. The largest

increase in soil carbon sequestration was at the Dark-brown soil type zone, which accounts for

around 29% of the total SCS in Alberta. This is followed by the Gray soil zone (20%), Thin-black

(20%), Thick-black (19%), and Brown soil zone (12%). On the other hand, total crop production

emissions (GHG source), measured as the sum of emissions from fertilizer application, residue

decomposition, summerfallow and fuel, increased from 3.71 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 4.77 Mt CO2eq

in 2005 and to 6.02 Mt CO2eq in 2016. Consequently, net GHG balance, measured as the net

balance of GHGs that were emitted or sequestered, decreased more by multi-folds in 2016

compared to 2005 and 1985, net GHG balance in the Alberta crop sector decreased from 3.665 Mt

CO2eq in 1985 to 2.45 in 2005 and to (0.035) Mt CO2eq in 2016 (parentheses indicate net sink).

If a value of $10 is assigned to the price of emitting one tonne of CO2eq, the negative value of net

GHG decreased from a debit value equal to ($18 million) to a credit value equal to $0.335 million

in 2016.

In the Manitoba crop sector, we found that the increase in soil carbon sequestration was

not large enough to offset the increase in crop production emissions over the period 1985-2016.

Soil carbon sequestration increased from 0.097 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to about 1.1 Mt CO2eq in 2016,

while emissions from crop production increased from 2.2 Mt CO2eq in 1985 to 3.2 Mt CO2eq in

2016. Over the period 1985-2016, annual net GHG has stayed at about the same balance level for

44

most of the years, net GHG balance was 2.1 Mt CO2eq in both 1985 and 2016. If a value of $10 is

assigned to the price of emitting one tonne of CO2eq, the value of net GHG is negative/debit and

equal to ($10.7) million in 1985, and ($20.1) million in 2016. The main reason for the low increase

in carbon sequestration was the continuous use of tillage practices in Manitoba, which was affected

by the following factors: (1) since 1999, Manitoba has experienced high rates of precipitation,

combined with major flood events in 2011 and 2014. As a result, more tillage and crop residue

incorporation were used to dry out the soil; (2) the Dark-brown soil zone is very small, mostly

centred around Carberry Manitoba, the soil is sandy loam, and recently was heavily used for

growing potatoes. Potato production uses a lot of tillage, pre-seed, row cultivating and hilling over

the growing season and harvest, then uses tillage to level the land so cereal can be grown in the

following year; (3) in the Eastern side of the province, soils are high in clay content and moisture.

Soil moisture is mainly due to spring flooding of the Red River, thus farmers in this area heavily

till the soil to dry out and warm up soil for spring seeding. In addition, Manitoba has experienced

an expansion of long season, heat-loving crops like soybeans and corn, which require intensive

tillage in the early spring for soil warming.

In both provinces, Alberta and Manitoba, this study identifies two priority areas for the

mitigation of emissions from input use that require research-based policy responses: emissions

from nitrogen and fuel inputs use. Nitrogen fertilizer is widely used in both provinces. In Alberta,

emissions from fertilizer application increased by 61% and, in Manitoba by 71% between 1985

and 2016. Nitrogen fertilizer is considered the primary concern with regard to GHG emissions,

because of its low nutrient uptake efficiency and the resulting high N2O fluxes. While little of the

nitrogen applied is converted to N2O emission—typically, 0.5% to 3% of nitrogen added to soil is

released as N2O emission—this emission generally represents a large percentage of the total GHG

emissions in the crops sector, since N2O has 310 times the global warming potential of CO2 (IPCC,

2007; Bouwman et al., 2002; Linquist et al., 2011; Stehfest and Bouwman, 2006). In addition,

although the use of fertilizer increases crop production and profitability, these increases are not

sustainable since the use of large-scale, long-term chemical fertilizer significantly alters soil

nutrient balance and increases soil fertility deficiency (Kumar, 2001; Yang, 2006). Therefore, a

well-developed nitrogen management system which includes practices—such as nitrogen

application rate, timing, placement and formulation as well as diversified crop rotations, reduced

45

tillage, and the management of soil pH, pests and disease—is essential for GHG emissions

mitigation and for the health and resilience of cultivated land and sustainable agriculture.

Regarding fuel input use, we found that although the emission from fuel use in crop

production had decreased, the emission from fuel used in transportation increased in both

provinces over the period 1985-2016, it increased by about sevenfold in Alberta, and by about

fourfold in Manitoba. This increase was mainly due to the increase in the distance by which crop

outputs and inputs were moved, and affected by the following factors: the reduction in the number

of farms accompanied by the increase in farm size and reduction in the number of grain bins in the

field, which increased hauling distance and the distance being traveled from the farm yard to the

farmed land; and the consolidation of farm crop input suppliers as many of the grain delivery points

also sold crop inputs. In Alberta, the number of grain elevators decreased from 600 in 1985 to 77

in 2016, and the number of grain delivery points from 333 in 1985 to 59 in 2016. Similarly, during

the same period, the number of grain elevators in Manitoba decreased from 305 to 82, and the

number of grain delivery points decreased from 205 to 70.

These priority areas demonstrate the need to support future research to identify and further

develop agricultural technologies that enhance GHG mitigation based on inputs use and

management practices while ensuring more resilient production systems and food security.

Evolving technologies and tools, such as crop genome sequencing, automated plant phenotyping,

microbiomes and omics components of soil nitrogen cycling knowledge, remote micro-sensors,

GPS, robotics, satellite imaging, phone apps, wireless networks, as well as advances in clean

energy technologies are paving the way for new knowledge practices, and innovations. These, in

turn, may transform the way the agricultural sector operates and competes, providing innovative

solutions to global food security whilst developing robust responses to climate change challenges

and to the depletion of natural resources.

From a policy perspective, the design and implementation of effective climate change

policies in agriculture involves understanding the complexity of the agricultural system. This

requires balancing the trade-offs between mitigating agriculture’s contribution to GHG emissions,

adapting and building the resilience of agriculture and food systems to climate change, and

increasing agricultural productivity to support equitable increases in farm income and economic

growth. In addition, recognizing that many stakeholders might be affected, a new climate change

policy requires the engagement, advocacy and cohesion of a diverse set of stakeholders, including

46

government agencies, NGOs, the farming community, civil society, the private sector and

academia, in order to foster the acceptance of a new policy and ensure its efficacy.

47

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Appendix A: Data and Coefficients for PCEM Model

Table 1.A Percentage of arable land in soil-climate zone at the drop District level Alberta

Crop

Districts

Brown Dark

Brown

Thin

Black

Thick

Black

Gray

1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2 20% 80% 0% 0% 0%

3 0% 10% 70% 20% 0%

4 0% 44% 46% 10% 0%

5 0% 0% 10% 80% 10%

6 0% 0% 0% 20% 80%

7 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Source: Authors’ calculation

Table 2.A. Carbon sequestration coefficients (Mg CO2-eq ha-1) Elimination

of Fallow

Direct seeding Fallow

greater > 25%

Direct seeding

Continuous Crop

Brown 0.73 0.83 0.83

Dark brown 1.10 0.83 0.83

Thin black 1.83 0.18 0.92

Thick black 2.20 0.18 0.92

Gray 2.20 0.18 0.92

Sources: McConkey et al. 2000; McConkey et al. 2013; Campbell et al 2005a.

Table 3.A. Coefficients of the relationships between harvest index and crop yield for the

major crops Cropping Activity Intercept: Coefficient:

Wheat/Durum 0.344 0.015

Other cereal 0.380 0.015

Barley feed/ barley malt 0.373 0.028

Oats 0.357 0.029

Flax 0.171 0.110

Canola 0.180 0.046

Lentil 0.305 0.059

Field Pea 0.163 0.071

Other Pulse 0.279 0.046

Source: Fan et al 2017

Manitoba

Crop

Districts

Brown Dark

Brown

Thin

Black

Thick

Black

Gray

1 0% 0% 90% 10% 0%

2 0% 5% 35% 40% 20%

3 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

4 0% 0% 10% 90% 0%

5 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

6 0% 0% 0% 70% 30%


52

Table 4.A. Nitrogen Content of Aboveground and Belowground Residues of Major and

Crops Crops N Content

of Above-

Ground

Residues

N Content of

Below-

Ground

Residues

Ratio of

Below-

Ground

Residues to

Harvested

Yield

Ratio of

Above-Ground

Residues to

Harvested

Yield

Beans 0.008 0.008 0.81 0.19

Grass 0.015 0.012 0.46 0.54

Wheat 0.006 0.009 0.72 0.28

Barley 0.007 0.014 0.78 0.22

Oats 0.007 0.008 0.75 0.25

Soybea

n

0.008 0.008 0.81 0.19

Alfalfa 0.027 0.019 0.60 0.40

Source: IPCC (2006)

Table 5.A. Alberta Zero Tillage Adoption Rates by Provincial and Soil Zone Level (1991-

2016) (as % of cropland)

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Alberta 3.1% 9.8% 25.7% 30.8% 64.8% 67.5%

Brown 9.6% 15.7% 33.2% 38.7% 70.3% 77.8%

Dark-Brown 4.7% 15.4% 44.1% 51.5% 73.8% 77.2%

Thin Black 1.7% 9.4% 29.1% 34.4% 68.8% 68.5%

Thick Black 1.1% 6.9% 20.1% 25.5% 53.4% 51.7%

Gray 1.5% 8.7% 27.0% 31.9% 54.3% 60.6%


Table 6.A. Manitoba Zero Tillage Adoption Rates by Provincial and Soil Zone Level (1991-

2016) (as % of cropland)

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Manitoba 5% 9.1% 12.9% 21.3% 24.0% 20.0%

Dark-Brown 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8%

Thin Black 6.3% 15.6% 26.5% 34.8% 51.2% 37.3%

Thick Black

21.9

% 27.8% 25.6% 27.0% 50.3% 52.6%

Gray 2.3% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 8.5% 7.5%


53

Appendix B: Alberta Annual Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (1985-2016)

Table 1.B. Alberta Annual Crop Carbon Sequestration Quantities and Values

Year

Alberta aggerate

soil carbon

sequestration/sin

k (Mt CO2eq)

Soil carbon sequestration value (millions in $2018)


$5.00 $10.00 $15.00

1985 0.048 0.120 0.241 0.361

1986 0.086 0.222 0.444 0.665

1987 0.082 0.218 0.436 0.654

1988 0.076 0.208 0.416 0.623

1989 0.098 0.277 0.555 0.832

1990 0.103 0.299 0.599 0.898

1991 0.159 0.485 0.970 1.455

1992 0.206 0.634 1.268 1.902

1993 0.314 0.985 1.969 2.954

1994 0.373 1.171 2.343 3.514

1995 0.537 1.717 3.435 5.152

1996 0.624 2.020 4.039 6.059

1997 0.766 2.517 5.034 7.552

1998 0.971 3.220 6.440 9.660

1999 1.220 4.112 8.223 12.335

2000 1.448 5.002 10.005 15.007

2001 1.433 5.069 10.137 15.206

2002 0.925 3.345 6.690 10.034

2003 1.805 6.708 13.417 20.125

2004 2.105 7.970 15.940 23.910

2005 2.325 9.009 18.018 27.027

2006 2.210 8.741 17.481 26.222

2007 2.459 9.960 19.920 29.880

2008 3.564 14.809 29.618 44.428

2009 3.400 14.172 28.344 42.517

2010 4.487 19.094 38.188 57.282

2011 5.426 23.878 47.756 71.635

2012 5.461 24.464 48.928 73.392

2013 6.312 28.586 57.172 85.758

2014 5.772 26.768 53.536 80.304

2015 5.610 26.382 52.763 79.145

2016 6.056 28.990 57.980 86.969

Total 66.462 281.153 562.305 843.458

54

Table 2.B. Alberta Annual Crop Carbon Sequestration by Soil Zones

Year

Alberta

aggerate soil

carbon

sequestration

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta soil carbon sequestration by Soil Zones (Mt CO2eq)

Brown Dark Brown Thin Black Thick Black Gray

1985 0.048 0.017 0.015 0.007 0.005 0.003

1986 0.086 0.033 0.031 0.011 0.007 0.004

1987 0.082 0.030 0.030 0.011 0.007 0.004

1988 0.076 0.021 0.031 0.012 0.008 0.005

1989 0.098 0.034 0.037 0.013 0.008 0.005

1990 0.103 0.034 0.038 0.015 0.010 0.005

1991 0.159 0.059 0.055 0.019 0.014 0.012

1992 0.206 0.059 0.065 0.031 0.027 0.024

1993 0.314 0.077 0.099 0.054 0.045 0.039

1994 0.373 0.071 0.115 0.070 0.063 0.055

1995 0.537 0.097 0.162 0.094 0.096 0.088

1996 0.624 0.090 0.201 0.124 0.115 0.094

1997 0.766 0.109 0.244 0.162 0.148 0.102

1998 0.971 0.142 0.298 0.188 0.192 0.151

1999 1.220 0.195 0.385 0.250 0.210 0.180

2000 1.448 0.148 0.384 0.295 0.321 0.300

2001 1.433 0.107 0.408 0.320 0.330 0.268

2002 0.925 0.147 0.254 0.135 0.174 0.215

2003 1.805 0.217 0.535 0.354 0.389 0.310

2004 2.105 0.239 0.627 0.431 0.457 0.351

2005 2.325 0.271 0.689 0.456 0.494 0.415

2006 2.210 0.263 0.679 0.443 0.449 0.375

2007 2.459 0.267 0.723 0.480 0.528 0.461

2008 3.564 0.394 1.056 0.729 0.777 0.607

2009 3.400 0.357 0.942 0.682 0.714 0.705

2010 4.487 0.471 1.269 0.937 0.931 0.879

2011 5.426 0.528 1.493 1.186 1.023 1.196

2012 5.461 0.619 1.533 1.111 0.942 1.256

2013 6.312 0.709 1.707 1.290 1.227 1.379

2014 5.772 0.634 1.557 1.181 1.097 1.302

2015 5.610 0.547 1.506 1.158 1.099 1.301

2016 6.056 0.771 1.777 1.219 0.771 1.517

Total 66.462 7.758 18.947 13.467 12.680 13.610

55

Table 3.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Nitrogen Fertilizer Application 1985-2016

(Provincial and soil zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

nitrogen

application

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from nitrogen application by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.988 0.044 0.182 0.227 0.212 0.323

1986 0.846 0.040 0.159 0.200 0.183 0.263

1987 0.792 0.039 0.150 0.187 0.163 0.254

1988 0.864 0.040 0.164 0.206 0.180 0.274

1989 0.953 0.042 0.179 0.225 0.198 0.308

1990 0.978 0.045 0.178 0.225 0.204 0.326

1991 0.929 0.048 0.175 0.221 0.188 0.297

1992 0.978 0.044 0.192 0.237 0.202 0.304

1993 1.025 0.046 0.199 0.245 0.212 0.323

1994 1.078 0.051 0.215 0.256 0.224 0.332

1995 1.071 0.053 0.211 0.252 0.224 0.332

1996 1.160 0.063 0.232 0.266 0.235 0.364

1997 1.161 0.066 0.248 0.290 0.247 0.310

1998 1.236 0.072 0.244 0.295 0.269 0.356

1999 1.264 0.069 0.247 0.298 0.257 0.393

2000 1.305 0.070 0.271 0.305 0.264 0.396

2001 1.135 0.067 0.236 0.270 0.226 0.337

2002 1.175 0.067 0.249 0.275 0.237 0.348

2003 1.061 0.062 0.213 0.238 0.217 0.331

2004 1.169 0.063 0.229 0.258 0.241 0.377

2005 1.100 0.062 0.222 0.245 0.223 0.347

2006 1.078 0.065 0.224 0.246 0.220 0.324

2007 1.227 0.072 0.257 0.277 0.264 0.357

2008 1.337 0.082 0.286 0.299 0.279 0.391

2009 1.316 0.070 0.265 0.288 0.274 0.419

2010 1.357 0.074 0.272 0.284 0.270 0.457

2011 1.572 0.084 0.314 0.383 0.302 0.488

2012 1.651 0.091 0.315 0.336 0.402 0.507

2013 1.710 0.096 0.331 0.374 0.341 0.569

2014 1.772 0.097 0.349 0.382 0.338 0.606

2015 1.816 0.101 0.360 0.387 0.351 0.617

2016 1.585 0.095 0.327 0.342 0.315 0.506

Total 38.688 2.079 7.693 8.818 7.962 12.136

56

Table 4.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Crop Residue 1985-2016 (provincial and soil

zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

crop residue

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from crop residue by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 1.067 0.095 0.269 0.196 0.219 0.288

1986 1.507 0.159 0.384 0.305 0.301 0.358

1987 1.453 0.154 0.346 0.271 0.289 0.394

1988 1.466 0.101 0.322 0.247 0.299 0.497

1989 1.415 0.124 0.338 0.268 0.289 0.396

1990 1.466 0.124 0.341 0.281 0.300 0.419

1991 1.427 0.166 0.354 0.271 0.283 0.353

1992 1.266 0.149 0.312 0.238 0.253 0.315

1993 1.490 0.174 0.383 0.296 0.283 0.353

1994 1.461 0.164 0.350 0.277 0.295 0.376

1995 1.492 0.176 0.382 0.279 0.279 0.378

1996 1.479 0.155 0.383 0.299 0.280 0.362

1997 1.311 0.141 0.373 0.279 0.248 0.270

1998 1.330 0.152 0.353 0.260 0.254 0.311

1999 1.568 0.205 0.443 0.326 0.285 0.308

2000 1.401 0.145 0.383 0.268 0.254 0.351

2001 1.139 0.083 0.297 0.234 0.209 0.317

2002 0.749 0.112 0.187 0.109 0.110 0.231

2003 1.382 0.170 0.381 0.269 0.239 0.323

2004 1.548 0.173 0.415 0.302 0.288 0.371

2005 1.676 0.196 0.457 0.328 0.298 0.397

2006 1.551 0.189 0.437 0.303 0.270 0.352

2007 1.523 0.181 0.402 0.280 0.281 0.380

2008 1.784 0.221 0.520 0.342 0.321 0.380

2009 1.380 0.172 0.390 0.254 0.236 0.328

2010 1.735 0.234 0.483 0.338 0.306 0.373

2011 1.904 0.238 0.515 0.378 0.309 0.464

2012 1.879 0.253 0.494 0.331 0.346 0.455

2013 2.008 0.273 0.550 0.379 0.321 0.484

2014 1.840 0.249 0.514 0.347 0.291 0.439

2015 1.685 0.201 0.481 0.325 0.270 0.409

2016 1.993 0.298 0.570 0.357 0.301 0.468

Total 48.376 5.629 12.807 9.237 8.807 11.896

57

Table 5.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Summerfallow 1985-2016 (provincial and soil

zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

crop residue

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from crop residue by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.395 0.087 0.133 0.056 0.032 0.087

1986 0.428 0.087 0.139 0.061 0.036 0.106

1987 0.512 0.120 0.172 0.079 0.050 0.092

1988 0.481 0.122 0.164 0.069 0.041 0.085

1989 0.414 0.085 0.146 0.061 0.035 0.088

1990 0.453 0.101 0.163 0.071 0.040 0.078

1991 0.421 0.099 0.150 0.054 0.036 0.083

1992 0.386 0.126 0.143 0.041 0.024 0.052

1993 0.354 0.111 0.134 0.039 0.019 0.051

1994 0.359 0.111 0.129 0.038 0.020 0.061

1995 0.366 0.113 0.125 0.040 0.027 0.060

1996 0.346 0.119 0.127 0.035 0.015 0.048

1997 0.362 0.099 0.111 0.041 0.019 0.092

1998 0.319 0.103 0.124 0.034 0.016 0.042

1999 0.284 0.098 0.100 0.030 0.019 0.039

2000 0.292 0.107 0.092 0.032 0.017 0.045

2001 0.349 0.108 0.112 0.033 0.022 0.074

2002 0.214 0.069 0.079 0.024 0.011 0.031

2003 0.168 0.064 0.058 0.013 0.007 0.026

2004 0.205 0.087 0.073 0.016 0.008 0.021

2005 0.229 0.078 0.076 0.020 0.015 0.040

2006 0.252 0.089 0.080 0.024 0.016 0.044

2007 0.229 0.078 0.064 0.020 0.015 0.051

2008 0.174 0.074 0.046 0.015 0.009 0.029

2009 0.213 0.103 0.058 0.015 0.011 0.026

2010 0.179 0.073 0.052 0.019 0.011 0.024

2011 0.182 0.083 0.051 0.015 0.011 0.022

2012 0.155 0.079 0.045 0.010 0.004 0.016

2013 0.121 0.051 0.027 0.007 0.008 0.027

2014 0.116 0.053 0.026 0.011 0.006 0.019

2015 0.095 0.051 0.025 0.006 0.003 0.010

2016 0.071 0.029 0.017 0.006 0.004 0.015

Total 9.125 2.856 3.040 1.036 0.609 1.584

58

Table 6.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Fuel in Crop Production 1985-2016

(provincial and soil zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

fuel on farm

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from fuel on farm by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 1.061 0.159 0.285 0.212 0.161 0.244

1986 1.054 0.160 0.287 0.209 0.158 0.240

1987 1.038 0.157 0.284 0.208 0.153 0.234

1988 1.013 0.154 0.279 0.206 0.151 0.222

1989 1.023 0.158 0.281 0.207 0.151 0.226

1990 0.996 0.151 0.269 0.198 0.148 0.230

1991 0.982 0.146 0.271 0.196 0.145 0.224

1992 0.971 0.144 0.276 0.196 0.143 0.212

1993 0.983 0.146 0.277 0.197 0.145 0.217

1994 0.957 0.138 0.278 0.192 0.141 0.208

1995 0.958 0.145 0.272 0.190 0.144 0.207

1996 0.960 0.146 0.279 0.187 0.137 0.210

1997 0.934 0.142 0.280 0.194 0.137 0.180

1998 0.917 0.138 0.263 0.186 0.137 0.193

1999 0.906 0.135 0.261 0.184 0.132 0.195

2000 0.896 0.140 0.264 0.177 0.126 0.189

2001 0.804 0.124 0.237 0.161 0.110 0.172

2002 0.799 0.126 0.233 0.161 0.111 0.168

2003 0.798 0.128 0.228 0.154 0.112 0.175

2004 0.780 0.116 0.221 0.152 0.113 0.178

2005 0.766 0.114 0.223 0.149 0.111 0.169

2006 0.765 0.117 0.226 0.149 0.110 0.163

2007 0.746 0.114 0.222 0.143 0.112 0.155

2008 0.758 0.121 0.226 0.143 0.110 0.158

2009 0.731 0.105 0.214 0.140 0.109 0.163

2010 0.680 0.104 0.200 0.124 0.095 0.157

2011 0.729 0.101 0.207 0.162 0.102 0.157

2012 0.770 0.117 0.217 0.136 0.138 0.163

2013 0.717 0.112 0.206 0.135 0.100 0.163

2014 0.731 0.113 0.209 0.136 0.099 0.175

2015 0.744 0.118 0.212 0.137 0.101 0.177

2016 0.760 0.120 0.226 0.142 0.110 0.162

Total 27.725 4.211 7.915 5.462 4.049 6.088

59

Table 7.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Fuel in Transportation 1985-2016 (provincial

and soil zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

fuel used in

transportation

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from fuel used in transportation by soil zone (Mt

CO2eq)


1985 0.202 0.021 0.055 0.040 0.038 0.048

1986 0.353 0.044 0.100 0.077 0.060 0.072

1987 0.325 0.040 0.090 0.068 0.055 0.073

1988 0.316 0.031 0.083 0.065 0.058 0.079

1989 0.513 0.063 0.140 0.108 0.084 0.117

1990 0.512 0.061 0.136 0.107 0.085 0.122

1991 0.510 0.070 0.140 0.105 0.082 0.114

1992 0.483 0.064 0.135 0.099 0.078 0.107

1993 0.538 0.070 0.152 0.113 0.087 0.116

1994 0.506 0.064 0.144 0.106 0.082 0.110

1995 0.644 0.087 0.183 0.130 0.103 0.142

1996 0.887 0.116 0.259 0.180 0.137 0.194

1997 0.858 0.117 0.261 0.187 0.136 0.157

1998 1.024 0.140 0.293 0.213 0.163 0.214

1999 1.071 0.149 0.312 0.225 0.162 0.223

2000 1.048 0.143 0.308 0.211 0.159 0.227

2001 0.925 0.120 0.271 0.194 0.139 0.200

2002 0.871 0.128 0.253 0.174 0.126 0.191

2003 0.979 0.142 0.284 0.192 0.147 0.213

2004 1.002 0.136 0.289 0.200 0.156 0.221

2005 1.004 0.140 0.296 0.199 0.152 0.218

2006 1.137 0.165 0.342 0.225 0.168 0.236

2007 1.114 0.159 0.337 0.216 0.174 0.228

2008 1.223 0.181 0.373 0.236 0.189 0.245

2009 1.157 0.155 0.339 0.226 0.181 0.257

2010 1.001 0.138 0.297 0.189 0.151 0.225

2011 1.292 0.163 0.369 0.289 0.190 0.281

2012 1.331 0.188 0.378 0.241 0.232 0.293

2013 1.322 0.195 0.377 0.254 0.197 0.300

2014 1.471 0.215 0.419 0.278 0.210 0.350

2015 1.487 0.217 0.421 0.280 0.214 0.356

2016 1.611 0.251 0.479 0.300 0.222 0.360

Total 28.720 3.972 8.310 5.730 4.421 6.287

60

Table 8.B. Alberta Annual Emission from Total Fuel 1985-2016 (provincial and soil

zone levels)

Year

Alberta

aggerate

emission from

total fuel used

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from total fuel by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 1.263 0.181 0.340 0.252 0.199 0.292

1986 1.407 0.204 0.387 0.286 0.218 0.312

1987 1.363 0.197 0.374 0.277 0.208 0.307

1988 1.329 0.185 0.362 0.271 0.209 0.302

1989 1.535 0.221 0.421 0.315 0.235 0.343

1990 1.507 0.212 0.405 0.305 0.233 0.352

1991 1.492 0.216 0.411 0.301 0.227 0.338

1992 1.454 0.208 0.411 0.295 0.222 0.318

1993 1.521 0.215 0.429 0.311 0.232 0.334

1994 1.463 0.202 0.422 0.298 0.223 0.318

1995 1.602 0.232 0.454 0.320 0.247 0.349

1996 1.847 0.262 0.538 0.367 0.275 0.404

1997 1.792 0.259 0.541 0.381 0.273 0.337

1998 1.941 0.278 0.556 0.399 0.300 0.408

1999 1.977 0.284 0.573 0.409 0.294 0.418

2000 1.944 0.283 0.572 0.388 0.285 0.416

2001 1.729 0.244 0.508 0.355 0.250 0.372

2002 1.670 0.254 0.486 0.335 0.237 0.359

2003 1.777 0.271 0.512 0.346 0.259 0.389

2004 1.782 0.252 0.509 0.352 0.269 0.399

2005 1.770 0.254 0.518 0.348 0.263 0.387

2006 1.902 0.283 0.568 0.374 0.278 0.399

2007 1.860 0.273 0.559 0.359 0.285 0.383

2008 1.981 0.302 0.598 0.379 0.298 0.403

2009 1.888 0.260 0.552 0.366 0.290 0.420

2010 1.680 0.242 0.497 0.313 0.246 0.382

2011 2.022 0.264 0.576 0.451 0.293 0.439

2012 2.101 0.304 0.595 0.376 0.370 0.455

2013 2.038 0.308 0.583 0.388 0.296 0.463

2014 2.201 0.328 0.627 0.413 0.309 0.524

2015 2.229 0.335 0.632 0.415 0.314 0.532

2016 2.371 0.371 0.705 0.442 0.332 0.522

Total 56.439 8.183 16.224 11.188 8.469 12.375

61

Table 9.B. Alberta Annual Total Crop Production Emission Quantities and Values

Year

total crop

emission (Mt

CO2eq)

total crop emission value (millions in $2018)


$5.00 $10.00 $15.00

1985 3.713 9.317 18.635 27.952

1986 4.188 10.782 21.564 32.347

1987 4.120 10.914 21.828 32.741

1988 4.141 11.265 22.530 33.796

1989 4.318 12.170 24.340 36.510

1990 4.404 12.860 25.719 38.579

1991 4.270 13.018 26.036 39.053

1992 4.085 12.603 25.206 37.809

1993 4.389 13.758 27.515 41.273

1994 4.361 13.685 27.370 41.055

1995 4.531 14.487 28.975 43.462

1996 4.831 15.647 31.294 46.941

1997 4.626 15.208 30.417 45.625

1998 4.825 16.005 32.010 48.015

1999 5.094 17.166 34.333 51.499

2000 4.942 17.071 34.143 51.214

2001 4.352 15.394 30.788 46.182

2002 3.809 13.769 27.538 41.307

2003 4.388 16.306 32.611 48.917

2004 4.704 17.815 35.629 53.444

2005 4.775 18.498 36.997 55.495

2006 4.784 18.921 37.842 56.762

2007 4.839 19.598 39.196 58.793

2008 5.276 21.927 43.854 65.781

2009 4.797 19.996 39.992 59.988

2010 4.951 21.070 42.141 63.211

2011 5.680 24.995 49.990 74.985

2012 5.785 25.913 51.826 77.739

2013 5.874 26.601 53.201 79.802

2014 5.925 27.476 54.953 82.429

2015 5.819 27.362 54.724 82.086

2016 6.021 28.822 57.644 86.466

Total 152.615 560.420 1,120.840 1,681.260

62

Appendix C: Manitoba Annual Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (1985-2016)

Table 1.C. Manitoba Annual Crop Carbon Sequestration Quantities and Values

Year

Manitoba

aggerate soil

carbon

sequestration/sin

k (Mt CO2eq)

Soil carbon sequestration value (millions in $2018)


$5.00 $10.00 $15.00

1985 0.097 0.242 0.484 0.727

1986 0.100 0.256 0.513 0.769

1987 0.101 0.267 0.535 0.802

1988 0.076 0.208 0.416 0.624

1989 0.117 0.331 0.661 0.992

1990 0.164 0.479 0.957 1.436

1991 0.175 0.535 1.070 1.604

1992 0.237 0.730 1.460 2.190

1993 0.205 0.643 1.286 1.929

1994 0.272 0.855 1.709 2.564

1995 0.279 0.891 1.782 2.673

1996 0.354 1.147 2.294 3.441

1997 0.409 1.345 2.691 4.036

1998 0.581 1.927 3.854 5.782

1999 0.523 1.762 3.523 5.285

2000 0.544 1.878 3.757 5.635

2001 0.481 1.700 3.401 5.101

2002 0.503 1.817 3.635 5.452

2003 0.597 2.219 4.437 6.656

2004 0.595 2.251 4.503 6.754

2005 0.490 1.899 3.798 5.697

2006 0.653 2.584 5.168 7.752

2007 0.701 2.838 5.676 8.514

2008 0.918 3.813 7.626 11.439

2009 1.057 4.404 8.807 13.211

2010 0.966 4.113 8.226 12.339

2011 0.665 2.928 5.856 8.784

2012 1.091 4.886 9.773 14.659

2013 1.283 5.809 11.619 17.428

2014 0.992 4.602 9.203 13.805

2015 1.089 5.119 10.238 15.356

2016 1.086 5.200 10.400 15.600

Total 17.399 69.679 139.357 209.036

63

Table 2.C. Manitoba Annual Crop Carbon Sequestration by Soil Zones

Year

Manitoba

aggerate soil

carbon

sequestration

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba soil carbon sequestration by Soil Zones (Mt

CO2eq)

Dark Brown Thin Black Thick Black Gray

1985 0.097 0.000 0.036 0.056 0.004

1986 0.100 0.000 0.040 0.056 0.003

1987 0.101 0.000 0.038 0.059 0.004

1988 0.076 0.000 0.030 0.042 0.003

1989 0.117 0.000 0.038 0.074 0.005

1990 0.164 0.000 0.064 0.093 0.006

1991 0.175 0.001 0.070 0.097 0.008

1992 0.237 0.001 0.101 0.127 0.008

1993 0.205 0.001 0.098 0.098 0.008

1994 0.272 0.001 0.128 0.132 0.011

1995 0.279 0.001 0.134 0.132 0.011

1996 0.354 0.002 0.188 0.151 0.013

1997 0.409 0.002 0.213 0.178 0.017

1998 0.581 0.003 0.304 0.252 0.023

1999 0.523 0.003 0.238 0.258 0.024

2000 0.544 0.002 0.357 0.170 0.015

2001 0.481 0.002 0.332 0.135 0.012

2002 0.503 0.002 0.344 0.146 0.011

2003 0.597 0.003 0.402 0.177 0.015

2004 0.595 0.002 0.423 0.158 0.012

2005 0.490 0.002 0.369 0.108 0.011

2006 0.653 0.002 0.471 0.170 0.010

2007 0.701 0.003 0.488 0.191 0.018

2008 0.918 0.005 0.619 0.265 0.028

2009 1.057 0.006 0.728 0.291 0.031

2010 0.966 0.006 0.654 0.276 0.031

2011 0.665 0.006 0.382 0.243 0.034

2012 1.091 0.006 0.712 0.333 0.040

2013 1.283 0.009 0.809 0.413 0.052

2014 0.992 0.006 0.584 0.360 0.042

2015 1.089 0.008 0.648 0.383 0.049

2016 1.086 0.007 0.634 0.401 0.044

Total 17.399 0.094 10.676 6.028 0.602

64

Table 3.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Nitrogen Application 1985-2016

(Provincial and soil zone levels)

Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

nitrogen

application

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba emission from nitrogen application by soil zone

(Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.770 0.006 0.287 0.433 0.044

1986 0.768 0.005 0.293 0.430 0.039

1987 0.726 0.005 0.277 0.408 0.036

1988 0.805 0.006 0.308 0.450 0.041

1989 0.724 0.005 0.275 0.404 0.039

1990 0.759 0.006 0.288 0.425 0.041

1991 0.844 0.006 0.318 0.473 0.046

1992 0.853 0.006 0.335 0.469 0.043

1993 0.927 0.007 0.352 0.516 0.051

1994 0.977 0.007 0.363 0.554 0.052

1995 1.006 0.007 0.360 0.584 0.054

1996 1.009 0.008 0.374 0.573 0.054

1997 1.047 0.007 0.385 0.599 0.056

1998 1.071 0.008 0.401 0.603 0.059

1999 1.055 0.008 0.364 0.624 0.059

2000 1.049 0.008 0.366 0.613 0.062

2001 0.971 0.008 0.368 0.540 0.055

2002 0.989 0.008 0.376 0.548 0.056

2003 1.066 0.009 0.419 0.576 0.062

2004 1.005 0.006 0.394 0.550 0.054

2005 0.845 0.008 0.348 0.445 0.044

2006 0.930 0.006 0.360 0.516 0.047

2007 1.018 0.009 0.388 0.562 0.058

2008 1.092 0.009 0.407 0.611 0.065

2009 0.979 0.008 0.384 0.536 0.052

2010 1.115 0.009 0.424 0.617 0.064

2011 0.993 0.009 0.314 0.608 0.062

2012 1.021 0.009 0.406 0.546 0.060

2013 1.243 0.011 0.495 0.664 0.072

2014 1.186 0.010 0.445 0.659 0.072

2015 1.215 0.012 0.484 0.644 0.075

2016 1.316 0.012 0.525 0.705 0.074

Total 31.373 0.250 11.883 17.488 1.751

65

Table 4.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Crop Residue 1985-2016 (provincial and

soil zone levels)

Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

crop residue

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba emission from crop residue by soil zone (Mt

CO2eq)


1985 0.739 0.006 0.274 0.411 0.047

1986 0.705 0.006 0.272 0.384 0.044

1987 0.642 0.005 0.234 0.363 0.040

1988 0.446 0.005 0.171 0.237 0.033

1989 0.602 0.005 0.191 0.362 0.044

1990 0.774 0.006 0.296 0.421 0.050

1991 0.675 0.006 0.262 0.361 0.046

1992 0.742 0.006 0.281 0.410 0.045

1993 0.591 0.005 0.234 0.312 0.040

1994 0.680 0.006 0.248 0.381 0.045

1995 0.597 0.005 0.207 0.345 0.040

1996 0.713 0.006 0.260 0.400 0.047

1997 0.618 0.005 0.222 0.350 0.040

1998 0.708 0.006 0.259 0.397 0.046

1999 0.672 0.006 0.215 0.402 0.048

2000 0.761 0.007 0.294 0.410 0.050

2001 0.655 0.006 0.262 0.341 0.045

2002 0.668 0.006 0.248 0.371 0.044

2003 0.740 0.007 0.274 0.413 0.047

2004 0.701 0.006 0.274 0.374 0.047

2005 0.536 0.007 0.236 0.253 0.040

2006 0.744 0.006 0.277 0.414 0.047

2007 0.714 0.006 0.269 0.391 0.047

2008 0.828 0.007 0.314 0.454 0.052

2009 0.797 0.007 0.324 0.421 0.045

2010 0.705 0.006 0.278 0.379 0.042

2011 0.554 0.006 0.178 0.330 0.040

2012 0.755 0.005 0.298 0.406 0.045

2013 0.890 0.008 0.342 0.485 0.055

2014 0.767 0.006 0.272 0.440 0.048

2015 0.840 0.008 0.318 0.457 0.057

2016 0.889 0.007 0.335 0.490 0.055

Total 22.448 0.195 8.420 12.368 1.464

66

Table 5.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Summerfallow 1985-2016 (provincial and

soil zone levels)

Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

crop residue

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba emission from crop residue by soil zone (Mt

CO2eq)


1985 0.097 0.001 0.047 0.040 0.009

1986 0.149 0.002 0.062 0.070 0.016

1987 0.150 0.002 0.067 0.068 0.013

1988 0.112 0.002 0.052 0.050 0.010

1989 0.082 0.001 0.040 0.034 0.007

1990 0.082 0.001 0.039 0.034 0.008

1991 0.085 0.001 0.043 0.034 0.007

1992 0.065 0.001 0.031 0.027 0.006

1993 0.068 0.001 0.034 0.028 0.005

1994 0.065 0.001 0.031 0.027 0.006

1995 0.093 0.001 0.046 0.039 0.007

1996 0.094 0.001 0.041 0.043 0.009

1997 0.070 0.001 0.030 0.034 0.005

1998 0.054 0.001 0.025 0.023 0.004

1999 0.235 0.001 0.171 0.055 0.008

2000 0.046 0.001 0.020 0.021 0.004

2001 0.089 0.001 0.032 0.050 0.006

2002 0.037 0.000 0.020 0.014 0.003

2003 0.027 0.000 0.014 0.010 0.002

2004 0.076 0.001 0.033 0.037 0.005

2005 0.217 0.001 0.040 0.157 0.019

2006 0.035 0.000 0.019 0.013 0.003

2007 0.035 0.000 0.015 0.017 0.003

2008 0.020 0.000 0.010 0.009 0.001

2009 0.072 0.000 0.016 0.044 0.011

2010 0.104 0.002 0.051 0.040 0.011

2011 0.532 0.003 0.342 0.165 0.022

2012 0.017 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.002

2013 0.030 0.000 0.017 0.011 0.002

2014 0.208 0.002 0.150 0.045 0.011

2015 0.025 0.000 0.011 0.011 0.003

2016 0.016 0.000 0.006 0.008 0.002

Total 3.088 0.031 1.559 1.268 0.230

67

Table 6.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Fuel Used in Crop Production 1985-2016


Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

fuel used in

crop

production

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba emission from fuel used in crop production by

soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.504 0.005 0.206 0.261 0.032

1986 0.488 0.004 0.202 0.253 0.029

1987 0.485 0.004 0.200 0.252 0.029

1988 0.490 0.004 0.202 0.255 0.029

1989 0.497 0.004 0.204 0.259 0.030

1990 0.480 0.004 0.197 0.250 0.029

1991 0.468 0.004 0.194 0.242 0.028

1992 0.463 0.004 0.197 0.237 0.025

1993 0.469 0.004 0.194 0.244 0.027

1994 0.459 0.004 0.185 0.243 0.027

1995 0.448 0.004 0.175 0.243 0.026

1996 0.454 0.004 0.180 0.243 0.027

1997 0.446 0.004 0.175 0.241 0.026

1998 0.436 0.004 0.173 0.233 0.026

1999 0.404 0.003 0.161 0.217 0.023

2000 0.436 0.004 0.172 0.234 0.026

2001 0.416 0.003 0.161 0.226 0.025

2002 0.407 0.003 0.158 0.221 0.024

2003 0.401 0.004 0.161 0.213 0.024

2004 0.379 0.003 0.153 0.203 0.021

2005 0.367 0.003 0.147 0.196 0.021

2006 0.372 0.002 0.145 0.204 0.020

2007 0.369 0.003 0.144 0.199 0.022

2008 0.368 0.003 0.142 0.200 0.022

2009 0.358 0.003 0.140 0.195 0.020

2010 0.356 0.003 0.138 0.193 0.022

2011 0.318 0.003 0.113 0.182 0.021

2012 0.364 0.003 0.141 0.197 0.022

2013 0.374 0.003 0.145 0.203 0.023

2014 0.363 0.003 0.137 0.201 0.022

2015 0.373 0.003 0.144 0.201 0.025

2016 0.376 0.003 0.145 0.205 0.023

Total 13.388 0.112 5.333 7.148 0.795

68

Table 7.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Fuel Used in Transportation 1985-2016


Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

fuel Used in

transportation

(Mt CO2eq)

Alberta emission from fuel used in transportation by soil

zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.121 0.001 0.046 0.067 0.007

1986 0.122 0.001 0.050 0.065 0.006

1987 0.108 0.001 0.041 0.060 0.006

1988 0.133 0.001 0.053 0.070 0.008

1989 0.164 0.001 0.059 0.094 0.009

1990 0.191 0.001 0.077 0.103 0.010

1991 0.239 0.002 0.098 0.126 0.013

1992 0.258 0.002 0.104 0.139 0.013

1993 0.228 0.002 0.094 0.120 0.012

1994 0.241 0.002 0.093 0.133 0.013

1995 0.227 0.002 0.084 0.129 0.013

1996 0.252 0.002 0.096 0.140 0.014

1997 0.238 0.002 0.090 0.133 0.014

1998 0.247 0.002 0.095 0.137 0.013

1999 0.247 0.002 0.085 0.146 0.014

2000 0.291 0.002 0.114 0.158 0.016

2001 0.314 0.003 0.126 0.168 0.018

2002 0.323 0.002 0.124 0.179 0.018

2003 0.341 0.003 0.133 0.186 0.019

2004 0.413 0.003 0.168 0.221 0.021

2005 0.352 0.003 0.153 0.177 0.018

2006 0.421 0.003 0.164 0.234 0.020

2007 0.518 0.004 0.204 0.281 0.028

2008 0.551 0.004 0.213 0.303 0.030

2009 0.425 0.003 0.174 0.228 0.020

2010 0.399 0.003 0.157 0.217 0.022

2011 0.395 0.004 0.127 0.241 0.024

2012 0.439 0.003 0.174 0.238 0.024

2013 0.477 0.004 0.184 0.262 0.027

2014 0.529 0.004 0.187 0.308 0.030

2015 0.574 0.005 0.220 0.313 0.036

2016 0.592 0.005 0.225 0.330 0.033

Total 10.371 0.082 4.013 5.705 0.572

69

Table 8.C. Manitoba Annual Emission from Total Fuel 1985-2016 (provincial and soil

zone levels)

Year

Manitoba

aggerate

emission from

total fuel used

(Mt CO2eq)

Manitoba emission from total fuel by soil zone (Mt CO2eq)


1985 0.626 0.006 0.253 0.329 0.039

1986 0.610 0.005 0.252 0.318 0.035

1987 0.592 0.005 0.241 0.312 0.035

1988 0.623 0.005 0.255 0.325 0.037

1989 0.661 0.006 0.263 0.353 0.039

1990 0.671 0.006 0.274 0.353 0.039

1991 0.707 0.006 0.292 0.369 0.041

1992 0.721 0.005 0.301 0.376 0.038

1993 0.698 0.006 0.288 0.364 0.040

1994 0.700 0.006 0.279 0.376 0.040

1995 0.676 0.006 0.259 0.372 0.039

1996 0.706 0.006 0.276 0.383 0.041

1997 0.684 0.005 0.265 0.374 0.039

1998 0.683 0.005 0.268 0.370 0.039

1999 0.651 0.006 0.246 0.362 0.037

2000 0.726 0.006 0.286 0.392 0.042

2001 0.730 0.006 0.287 0.394 0.043

2002 0.730 0.006 0.282 0.400 0.042

2003 0.742 0.006 0.295 0.399 0.043

2004 0.792 0.005 0.321 0.424 0.042

2005 0.719 0.007 0.300 0.374 0.039

2006 0.793 0.005 0.309 0.438 0.041

2007 0.886 0.007 0.349 0.480 0.050

2008 0.919 0.008 0.355 0.503 0.053

2009 0.783 0.006 0.314 0.422 0.040

2010 0.755 0.006 0.295 0.410 0.044

2011 0.713 0.006 0.239 0.423 0.045

2012 0.803 0.006 0.315 0.435 0.047

2013 0.851 0.007 0.329 0.465 0.050

2014 0.893 0.007 0.324 0.509 0.052

2015 0.947 0.009 0.364 0.514 0.060

2016 0.968 0.008 0.369 0.536 0.056

Total 23.758 0.194 9.346 12.852 1.366

70

Table 9.C. Manitoba Annual Total Crop Production Emission Quantities and Values

Year

total crop

emission (Mt

CO2eq)

total crop emission value (millions in $2018)


$5.00 $10.00 $15.00

1985 2.232 5.600 11.200 16.800

1986 2.233 5.748 11.496 17.245

1987 2.111 5.592 11.185 16.777

1988 1.986 5.404 10.808 16.213

1989 2.069 5.832 11.664 17.497

1990 2.286 6.676 13.352 20.028

1991 2.311 7.047 14.094 21.141

1992 2.381 7.345 14.691 22.036

1993 2.285 7.161 14.323 21.484

1994 2.423 7.601 15.203 22.804

1995 2.372 7.584 15.168 22.752

1996 2.522 8.168 16.336 24.504

1997 2.419 7.952 15.904 23.856

1998 2.516 8.345 16.690 25.035

1999 2.612 8.804 17.607 26.411

2000 2.582 8.921 17.841 26.762

2001 2.445 8.647 17.295 25.942

2002 2.424 8.763 17.526 26.289

2003 2.575 9.571 19.142 28.712

2004 2.573 9.744 19.488 29.232

2005 2.316 8.973 17.946 26.919

2006 2.502 9.896 19.791 29.687

2007 2.653 10.744 21.488 32.232

2008 2.859 11.882 23.764 35.645

2009 2.631 10.967 21.933 32.900

2010 2.679 11.401 22.803 34.204

2011 2.791 12.283 24.566 36.849

2012 2.595 11.624 23.249 34.873

2013 3.014 13.650 27.301 40.951

2014 3.054 14.161 28.322 42.483

2015 3.027 14.234 28.468 42.701

2016 3.189 15.267 30.534 45.802

Total 80.667 295.588 591.176 886.765