Assessing future health workforce needs Policy Summary Draft for consultation Gilles Dussault, James Buchan, Walter Sermeus, Žilvinas Padaiga Leuven April 2010
Mar 27, 2015
Assessing future health workforce needs
Policy SummaryDraft for consultation
Gilles Dussault, James Buchan, Walter Sermeus, Žilvinas Padaiga
Leuven April 2010
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Policy Summary
• The challenges of future HW needs/ requirements assessment
• Approaches, strategies and tools• Country experiences• Lessons• Policy questions for the EC• Key messages
Questions?
• Do we need future HW needs assessment? YES
• Is it difficult? YES, very• How to get started?
– What are your service objectives?– What is the HW present situation?– What are trends which will affect HW needs?– What do stakeholders say?
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The relationship between needs and objectives
HEALTH OBJECTIVESHEALTH NEEDS
SERVICES NEEDS
RESOURCES NEEDS
SERVICES OBJECTIVES
RESOURCES OBJECTIVES
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A simple model of the dynamics of the supply of health workers
Education pipeline
Immigration
Contracting
Stock of health
workers
Retirement
Attrition
Emigration
Returners
Facilitators & Obstacles
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The challenges of HW needs assessment
• Estimating future needs and demand• How will supply and labour market evolve?• Methodological issues: databases,
definitions, sector vs occupation approach• Policy/political : vision, stakeholders,
continuity
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4 approaches
• Health worker to population ratio • Service-target • Utilization and demand approach. • Health and service needs
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Country experiences
• England, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Slovenia, Spain , Australia and Canada
• + Belgium, Ireland• Most countries do not have an
explicit HW development strategy
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Lessons
• Assessing HW needs helps prevent/mitigate imbalances
• Focuses the debate on data and facts
• Important that policymakers declare their values, principles and policies
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Lessons
• Future needs are not only numbers; skills-mix, competencies, working conditions, productivity and quality
• Quantitative models and tools are needed, but no substitute to judgments
• Importance of information base
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Lessons
• Need to look at the HW as a whole• Importance of engaging
stakeholders • Forecasting future needs is difficult
when decentralized• No agreement on planning horizon
lengths
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Lessons
• Implement strategies in a flexible manner, based on careful monitoring
• Not doing anything or reacting only when problems become sensitive has high costs
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Policy questions (some...)
• Should there be EU standardized definitions of health occupational categories and of health labour market indicators?
• • Should EU propose (require) the utilization of
standardized data collection tools and reporting formats?
• What is the role of EU in that respect, relative to that of technical agencies like WHO?
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Policy questions (some...)
• Would it be opportune to create a EU Observatory?– to support countries in developing their HW database,
in analyzing data, in developing HW policies– to consolidate country information and produce
regional analysis– to monitor, analyze and disseminate country
experiences
• Should EU encourage and technically support inter-country HW development, for instance between countries which already experience important cross-border movements?