ASEAN Economic Community: Financing Growth Poltak Hotradero Head of Research and Development
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ASEAN Economic Community:
Financing Growth
Poltak HotraderoHead of Research and Development
Agenda
ASEAN General Overview
Financing ASEAN-5
2
ASEAN Overview
ASEAN Countries Real Economic GrowthAverage Growth 2004-2014
(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)
4
ASEAN Countries in PopulationASEAN Population: 620 Million people (2014)
(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)
5
ASEAN Countries in GDPASEAN GDP: $ 6762 Billion in PPP (2014)
(Source: World Economic Outlook Database 2015 IMF)
6
Bank Asset to GDP
31.9%
52.2%
80.2% 82.9% 88.3%95.4%
142.0%
160.0% 163.7%
271.8%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Myanmar Indonesia Laos Cambodia Philippines BruneiDarussalam
Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Singapore
Bank Asset to GDP
Mainstream Financing
(Source: Local Currency Bond and Infrastructure Finance in ASEAN+3, ADB, 2015)
Government Bond Outstanding to GDP
0.0% 0.0%
3.4%4.9%
16.9%
22.4%
43.1%
49.8%
57.5%
62.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cambodia Laos BruneiDarussalam
Myanmar Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Singapore Thailand Malaysia
Gov. Debt Outstanding to GDP
Sovereign Financing
(Source: Local Currency Bond and Infrastructure Finance in ASEAN+3, ADB, 2015)
Financing ASEAN-5
48.41%
145.29%
55.85%
126.28%
182.45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Credit by Financial Sector
39.50%
141.77%
71.67%
131.36%
137.98%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
M2 to GDP
10
Credit to Private Sector and M2/GDPASEAN-5 Differences
(in percent of GDP) (in percent of GDP)
(Source: World Development Indicator, World Bank 2015)
$105
$193
$86
$153
$213 $18
$136
$17
$100
$70
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Government Private
2.9%
3.8%
5.5%
8.0%
16.8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Year-on-Year Growth
11
ASEAN-5 Bond Market VolumeEnd of 2014 Position
(in USD Billions)
(Source: asianbondsonline.adb.org)
12
ASEAN-5 Equity MarketEnd of 2014 Position
(in USD Billions)
(Source: World Federation of Exchanges Statistics)
$422.12 $459.00
$261.84
$752.83
$430.42
23%
29.60%
17.10%
36.10%
75.00%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
Market Capitalization Trade Velocity
$1,282.41
$830.76
$175.84
$622.26
$392.43
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Malaysia
Indonesia
Average Daily Trading Value
(in USD Millions)
Mutual Fund Assets in ComparisonEnd of 2010 Position, By Country
RegionPopulation(Millions)
GDP($ Billion)
Assets ($ Billion)
Asset per Capita ($)
Assets as share of GDP
(%)
China 1,355.2 5,708 347.6 256.5 6.1
Indonesia 232.8 707 18.7 80.3 2.6
South Korea 48.9 1,028 300.2 6,139.1 29.2
Malaysia 28.0 248 73.1 2,610.7 29.5
Philippines 93.8 200 5.7 60.8 2.9
Singapore 4.8 223 44.9 9,354.2 20.1
Thailand 68.2 319 87.7 1,285.9 27.5
United States 310.2 14,490 11,820.7 38,106.7 81.6
Japan 127.0 5,485 785.5 6,185.0 14.3
(Source: Asian Development Bank, 2013)
13
Blue Chip Stock Performance Among ASEAN-5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15
MSCI Indonesia USD 277.29
MSCI Thailand USD 201.32
MSCI Philippines USD 316.2
MSCI Singapore USD 119.22
MSCI Malaysia USD 175.64
MSCI Emerging Market USD 126.68
(Source: Thomson-Reuters, MSCI)
14
15
Global Equity Asset Allocation Among Emerging Market Countries
CountryMSCI Emerging
MarketMSCI AC Asia
ex Japan
China 17.7% 25.0%
Brazil 16.0%
Korea 13.5% 19.1%
Taiwan 11.5% 16.3%
South Africa 7.4%
India 7.4% 10.4%
Russia 7.3%
Mexico 4.5%
Malaysia 2.9% 4.1%
Indonesia 2.3% 3.3%
Thailand 1.7% 2.4%
Poland 1.7%
CountryMSCI Emerging
MarketMSCI AC Asia
ex Japan
Chile 1.5%
Turkey 1.3%
Colombia 0.8%
Peru 0.6%
Philippines 0.5% 0.7%
Hungary 0.4%
Egypt 0.4%
Czech Republic 0.4%
Morocco 0.2%
Hong Kong 11.8%
Singapore 6.9%
TOTAL 100% 100%
(Source: MSCI, 2014)
THANK [email protected]
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