1 ARM Holdings plc Q4 and FY 2011 Results 31 January 2012 London
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ARM Holdings plcQ4 and FY 2011 Results
31 January 2012London
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Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements as defined in section 102 of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risk factors associated with the semiconductor and intellectual property businesses. When used in this document, the words “anticipates”, “may”, “can”, “believes”, “expects”, “projects”, “intends”, “likely”, similar expressions and any other statements that are not historical facts, in each case as they relate to ARM, its management or its businesses and financial performance and condition are intended to identify those assertions as forward-looking statements. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, but they may be affected by a variety of variables, many of which are beyond our control. These variables could cause actual results or trends to differ materially and include, but are not limited to: failure to realize the benefits of our recent acquisitions, unforeseen liabilities arising from our recent acquisitions, price fluctuations, actual demand, the availability of software and operating systems compatible with our intellectual property, the continued demand for products including ARM’s intellectual property, delays in the design process or delays in a customer’s project that uses ARM’s technology, the success of our semiconductor partners, loss of market and industry competition, exchange and currency fluctuations, any future strategic investments or acquisitions, rapid technological change, regulatory developments, ARM’s ability to negotiate, structure, monitor and enforce agreements for the determination and payment of royalties, actual or potential litigation, changes in tax laws, interest rates and access to capital markets, political, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, including the commercial credit environment and uncertainties arising out of the financial market and liquidity crises, and capital expenditure requirements. ARM does not intend or assume any obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements in light of developments which differ from those anticipated.
More information about potential factors that could affect ARM’s business and financial results is included in ARM’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2010 including (without limitation) under the captions, “Risk Factors” and “Operating and Financial Review and Prospects,” which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and available at the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
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Business Update
Warren EastChief Executive Officer
4
Major semiconductor companies continue to invest in ARM technology Lead Partners signed licenses for first ARMv8-A processors LSI becomes the 9th major semiconductor company to buy subscription license
ARM continues to outperform the semiconductor industry Increasing market share in our target markets Q4 saw strong growth in microcontrollers, smartcards and connectivity chips
Extension of outsourcing model gains traction 20nm physical IP platform, 3 POPs and 5 Mali graphics licenses
Delivering increased profits and cash 28% growth in earnings in Q4
Increasing theARM valueper product
Growth in applications
Extending IP Outsourcing
Q4 2011 Highlights
78%ProcessorDivision
11%Physical IP
Division
11%Dev. Sys.
& Services
Q4 Group Revenues
$217m
Growth Opportunities
5
ARM in Mobile Computing Most mobile computers shown at CES
were based on ARM technology Wide range of form factors, software and
innovative features enabling OEMs to differentiate
All ARM-based mobile computers based on Cortex-A class processors Some with Mali, some with physical IP
NVIDIA, Qualcomm and TI demonstrated WoA tablets and laptops Microsoft announced beta availability will be
end of Feb
6
ARM in Digital Consumer Products Most digital TVs shown at CES
were based on ARM technology Mobile computing ecosystem is becoming
available for home entertainment OEMs are innovating around a common
architecture bringing new services to the screen
Digital TVs with 3D graphics processors are beginning to ship – most based on ARM’s Mali graphics processor Expect >50m DTVs with graphics
processors to ship in 2012
Several TV application processors also implemented with ARM’s physical IP
7
ARM’s Future in Computing Today’s ARM technology suitable for a range of computers Mobile computers announced at CES based on Cortex-A9 HP and Calxeda announce Cortex-A9 based server development First devices based on Cortex-A15 expected this year
Announced in Q4, ARMv8-A is the architecture for future generations of ARM processors Designed for computing requirements in 2014 and beyond Includes support for 64-bit processing and advanced cryptography Backward compatible with today’s Cortex-A family processors Four architecture licensees, including AppliedMicro and NVIDIA Two lead Partners signed for next generation processors
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Growing the Licensing Base
131 (+8)
95 (+9)
22 (+2)
Cumulative licenses(Q4 2011 licensing shown in parenthesis*)
Cortex-AFamily
Cortex-RFamily
Cortex-MFamily
Others = 21 (+1)*Note: Licensing numbers adjusted for licenses that are no longer expected to generate royalties
V8-A architectureFrom servers to smartphonesLead Partners signed up
Atlas / Apollo
Multi-core embedded processors for storage, baseband & engine management Lead Partner signed up
Cortex-R7
Smallest, lowest powerARM processorLead Partner signed up
Flycatcher
Processor Roadmap in 2012 Estimated Royalty Opportunity
for 2016
Real-timeEmbedded13bn unitsper year
Micro-controllers23bn unitsper year
ApplicationProcessors4bn unitsper year
ARM7TM
Family
ARM11TM
Family 79
171
270ARM9TM
Family
58 (+5) MaliGraphics Mobile computing, phones and
consumer electronicsLead Partners signed up
Skrymir / Tyr
31%Group $revs
9
$0m
$50m
$100m
$150m
$200m
$250m
$300m
$350m
$400m
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011
2006-10
2001-05
Pre-2001
Licensing Drives Future Royalties Many Q4 licenses for a broad range of end markets 9 of the 25 agreements with semiconductor companies intending to use
ARM technology across both mobile and digital TV / set-top-box LSI signed a subscription license to gain access to ARM processor
portfolio for a broad range of enterprise applications 5 Mali licenses signed for use in mobile phones, mobile computing and
digital TV
~100 Licenses
~280 Licenses
~350Licenses
Significant Royalty Potential from Recent Licenses
~120Licenses
Processor Licenses
+62
+61
+87
+91
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
~850
+121
+66
10
Q4 royalty revenues over $100m Up 23% year-on-year, industry up 6%
2.2 billion units in Q4 Up 26% year-on-year, industry flat 1.2 billion chips reported as sold into
mobile phones and tablets Mobile units up 10%, mobile value up
20% due to Cortex-A and Mali 550m microcontrollers and smartcards
up 80% year on year, from 20 vendors
Processor Royalties
Non-mobile 45%
46%Q4 Group $revs
2011: ARM Outperforms Industry
Grow
th Rate (%
)
AR
M R
oyal
ty R
even
ue ($
M)
2011 royalty revenue up 22% Industry up 8% over the relevant period
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ARM Royalty Revenue
Industry Growth Rate*
ARM Growth Rate
ARM $ Royalty CAGR (07-11) = 19%Industry $ Revenue CAGR (07-11) = 4%
Source: SIA January 2012, excludes memory and analogIndustry data offset 1 quarter to align with ARM’s royalty revenue
Mobile55%
Embedded25%
Enterprise16%
Home4%
Q4 Market Analysis
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7.9 Billion ARM-Based Chips in 2011
2011 to 2016 in the Appendix
Asus Eepad Transformer
Western DigitalMy Passport disk drives
HP Photosmart Printer
BluetoothHeadsets
WiFiRouters
Audi A8 (2012)Infotainment
BraunCoffee Machine
Embedded LabsIndustrial Network Server
VerifoneCash Terminal
HTCSensation
SteelseriesSensei Mouse
Bernina 830Sewing Machine
LiveScribeSmartpen
Recon Goggles Heads Up Display
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Smarter Technology Beyond GadgetsARM technology is being used to make the world a better place
Improving EducationLiteracy Bridge provides talking books to people who otherwise would not be able to access information as a result of illiteracy, disability or poor infrastructure
Improving Server EfficiencyHP's Redstone Server Development Platform features extreme low-energy server processors that can reduce power consumption by about 90%
Improving HealthcareAT&T are developing a health and safety monitoring device. This would be a small wearable device allowing real time monitoring of patient activity, location and vital body sensors
Improving Energy-Use in the HomeSmarter electric motors could reduce global emissions by 6%1
Smart meters can reduce domestic energy bills by 5-15%2
Sou
rces
1. I
EA
2.
Env
ironm
enta
l Cha
nge
Inst
itute
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Physical IP Benefits Processors Royalty-bearing foundry platform licenses
drive long-term revenue TSMC, Samsung and IBM have all now licensed
20nm platforms 91 cumulative physical IP foundry licenses First 32nm royalty revenue received
Advanced Physical IP is complex and benefits from SoC design expertise Processor Optimisation Pack (POP) is optimised
physical IP for processors delivering higher-performance and lower-power 3 POPs licensed in Q4, 26 POPs signed to date 50% attach rate with Cortex-A family processors First royalty revenue received from POP based
chip
11%Q4 Group $revs
Advanced physical IP forleading foundries
32nm*Royalties Received
20/14nmIn Development
28nmDelivered to lead partners
*32nm developed for GLOBALFOUNDRIES, IBM and Samsung
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011
Cumulative ProcessorOptimisation Packs
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Summary Strong license revenues driven by increase in new product development
and leading companies making long-term commitments to ARM technology Shipments of ARM-based chips continue to outperform the industry as new
chip designs come to market Mali and physical IP can generate additional royalty revenue per chip ARM is investing in new technology whilst increasing revenues,
profits and cash
Investor and analyst presentationTuesday 28 February, 16:30
Warren East, CEOLaurence Bryant, Director of Mobile
Solutions
Invitation on IR website www.arm.com/ir
Mobile World Congress
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Financial Update
Tim ScoreChief Financial Officer
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Financial Highlights – Q4 2011 Very strong processor licensing quarter Record license revenues of $68m 25 processor licenses signed Order backlog up over 20% sequentially to record high Opportunity pipeline healthy for 2012
Exceptionally strong royalty quarter Q4 processor shipments up 19% sequentially Market share gains, Japan’s recovery to full production Some royalty payments in Q4 were driven by large orders
that are unlikely to be repeated in Q1
Margin expansion and increased investment Record margins at 48% in Q4, 45% for FY
Backlog is up > 2x over 2 years
Q409 Q411
+26%
FlatIndustry ARM
Q4 YoY unit shipment growth
Operating marginexpansion
FY10 FY11
40% 45%
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Financial Highlights – FY 2011 Another year of strong growth in 2011 ARM outperformed industry both through the downturn
and the recovery
New and existing customers investing in advanced ARM technology 121 processor licenses 6 physical IP platform licenses
ARM continuing to invest in new technology Headcount up by 227 in 2011 to 2,116 About 80% of new hires in research and development More investment in R&D in 2012
Margin expansion drives strong cash generation Dividend increased by 20%
+24%
8%
Industry ARM
USD Revenue growth in 2011
179
227
2010
1889
2011
2116
1762
Headcount growthabout 10% CAGRfor past 2 years
Full Year Dividend
2010 2011
2.90p3.48p
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Outlook ARM entered 2012 with: A robust opportunity pipeline and a record order backlog New product introductions and growing new markets Increasing market share in target markets
Q1 Outlook About 10% sequential decline in the semiconductor industry in Q4 Expect revenues for Q1 to be in line with current market expectations
of around $200 million Normalised Opex expected to be £64-66 million
FY 2012 Global macro-economic situation remains uncertain and may
influence consumer and enterprise spending Assuming the macroeconomic situation does not deteriorate
significantly, we expect revenues to be at least in line with current market expectations of just over $860 million
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Q&A
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Mob
ileMarkets for ARM in 2010: Restated
* Including tablets, netbooks and laptops * * Includes other applications not listed such as headsets, DVD, game consoles, etc
Non
-Mob
ile
Devices Shipped(Million of Units)
2010Devices
Chips/Device
TAM 2010Chips
2010 ARM
2010 Share
Smart Phone 280 2-5 1,200 1,100 90%
Feature Phone 760 1-3 1,900 1,700 90%
Low End Voice 570 1 570 540 95%
Portable Media Players 150 1-3 300 220 70%
Mobile Computing* (apps only) 230 1 230 25 10%
Desktop PCs & Servers (apps) 220 1 220 0 0%
Digital Camera 130 1-2 200 160 80%
Digital TV & Set-top-box 350 1-2 450 160 35%
Networking 670 1-2 750 185 25%
Printers 120 1 120 75 65%
Hard Disk & Solid State Drives 670 1 670 560 85%
Automotive 2,700 1 2,700 180 7%
Smart Card 6,100 1 6,100 330 5%
Microcontrollers 7,300 1 7,300 560 8%
Others ** 1,700 1 1,800 270 15%
Total 22,000 24,500 6,100 25%
Source: Gartner, InStat, SIA, and ARM estimates
Updated embedded forecast due to Gartner retrospectively increasing the numberof chips classified as Automotive, MCU, and Smartcards
2010 forecast was:
Auto:1,800 / 180 / 10%S.C: 5,400 / 330 / 6%MCU:5,800 / 560 / 10%
Previous Total: 19b / 22b / 6.1bn / 28%
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Mob
ileMarkets for ARM in 2011
* Including tablets, netbooks and laptops * * Includes other applications not listed such as headsets, DVD, game consoles, etc
Devices Shipped(Million of Units)
2011Devices
Chips/Device
TAM 2011Chips
2011 ARM
2011Share
Smart Phone 470 3-5 1,900 1,700 90%
Feature Phone 660 2-3 1,700 1,600 95%
Low End Voice 690 1-2 700 650 95%
Portable Media Players 140 1-3 280 230 85%
Mobile Computing* (apps only) 280 1 280 60 20%
Digital Camera 150 1-2 220 190 80%
Digital TV & Set-top-box 400 1-2 600 230 40%
Desktop PCs & Servers (apps) 220 1 220 0 0%
Networking 680 1-2 750 300 30%
Printers 100 1 100 65 65%
Hard Disk & Solid State Drives 700 1 700 630 90%
Automotive 2,700 1 2,700 180 7%
Smart Card 6,300 1 6,300 700 10%
Microcontrollers 7,800 1 7,800 1,100 15%
Others ** 2,000 1 2,000 300 15%
Total 23,000 26,000 7,900 30%
Hom
eEn
terp
rise
Embe
dded
Source: Gartner, InStat, SIA, and ARM estimates
Year Market Share
2007 17%
2008 20%
2009 22%
2010 25%
2011 30%
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Mob
ileMarkets for ARM in 2016
* Including tablets, netbooks and laptops * * Includes other applications not listed such as headsets, DVD, game consoles, etc
Devices Shipped(Million of Units)
2016Devices
DeviceCAGR
Chips/Device
2016 Chips
ChipCAGR
Smart Phone 1,300 23% 3-5 4,500 19%
Feature Phone 400 -10% 2-4 1,200 -7%
Low End Voice 740 1% 1-2 1,100 9%
Portable Media Players 110 -5% 1-3 350 5%
Mobile Computing* (apps only) 850 25% 1 850 25%
Digital Camera 180 4% 1-2 350 10%
Digital TV & Set-top-box 600 8% 1-4 1,800 25%
Desktop PCs & Servers (apps) 240 2% 1 240 2%
Networking 790 3% 1-2 1,600 16%
Printers 120 4% 1-3 240 19%
Hard Disk & Solid State Drives 1,000 7% 1 1,000 7%
Automotive 3,500 7% 1 3,500 7%
Smart Card 8,000 5% 1 8,000 5%
Microcontrollers 11,500 8% 1 11,500 8%
Others ** 2,900 8% 1-2 3,200 10%
Total 32,000 6% 40,000 9%
Hom
eEn
terp
rise
Embe
dded
Key Growth Areas for ARM
Source: Gartner, InStat, SIA, and ARM estimates
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Q1 2011
Licensing Increases Market Opportunity
Application Penetration of Key Companies’ Products
2011ShareShipments
Smartphone – Apps >95%
Mobile Computer – Apps* 20%
Mobile – Modems 100%
Mobile – BT 80%
Mobile – WiFi 70%
Digital Camera** 80%
Digital TV / Set-Top-Box 40%
Networking 30%
Printers** 65%
Disk Drives (HDD & SSD) 90%
Automotive 7%
Smart Card 10%
Microcontrollers 15%
3D Graphics <1%
Public ARM design wins, but not yet shipping
Shipping mainly ARM-based chips
Shipping some ARM-based chips
No ARM design win or not yet public
* Includes handheld computers, tablets, and laptops**Based on OEM market share rather than semiconductor vendor
ARM gains share by winning designs at leading semiconductor companies
Based on current market sharesand ARM’s view of how these markets may develop.ARM will update the chart on the left only as design wins become public
3 companies re-equipped
1 company re-equipped
2 new design wins
Q2 2011 2 companies re-equipped
Q3 2011 1 company re-equipped
Q4 20113 companies re-equipped
1 company re-equipped
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Backlog Analysis – End Q4 2011
Backlog by Maturity Profile Backlog Composition
25%
23%
52%
Q112/Q212 Q312/Q412 Q113+
74%
13%
13%
ProcessorsPhysical IPSupport, Maintenance & Other
25
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% o
f $ R
even
ues
Services Development SystemsPIPD Licensing PD LicensingPIPD Royalties PD Royalties
Revenue Split Analysis6%
52%
36%
7%5%
Royalties
Licensing
40%
43%
11%