Sandra Brown IPv4 Market Group February 24, 2016 IPv4 Pricing and Transfer Update APNIC 41
Sandra Brown IPv4 Market Group February 24, 2016
IPv4 Pricing and Transfer Update APNIC 41
IPv4 Life Cycle
• Events – ARIN Runout – RIPE Inter-RIR Transfers – /8s come to market – IPv6 Adoption
2
Factors Affecting Pricing
• Supplies are being bought up in ARIN region, following run out in July 2015
-‐
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
IP TRA
NSFER
S # OF IP TRANSFERS PER YEAR IN ARIN REGION
3
Factors Affecting Pricing • RIPE Inter-RIR Transfers: Possible since
September 2015; Prices have equalized across regions
• IPv6 Deployment: Will reduce demand for IPv4 in the long term; Applications still need to support IPv6
• Use of CGN: Stretches use of IPv4 and reduces price pressure
• Supply of IPv4: As more IPv4 comes to market, such as /8s, prices are pushed down
• Demand for IPv4: Increased demand for cloud applications; population growth
4
Price Trends over Time
Inflection point in Sept 2015 – prices increased for /16 and larger blocks 5
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
Price Pe
r IP
IPv4 TransacDons Over Time -‐ /16 Blocks
2011 Sept 2015
APNIC Transfer Activity
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12
# OF TR
ANSFER
S
BLOCK SIZE
# OF TRANSFERS PER BLOCK SIZE
# OF TRANSFERS
APNIC Transfer Activity
7
-‐
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
/24 /23 /22 /21 /20 /19 /18 /17 /16 /15 /14 /13 /12
# OF IPS TR
ANSFER
RED
BLOCK SIZE
# OF IPS TRANSFERRED PER BLOCK SIZE
# OF IPS TRANSFERRED
Predictions for the Future • We are not at the top of the IPv4 Price
Curve: Prices will continue to rise somewhat
• /8s will continue to come to market, keeping prices reasonable
• The shortage of IPv4 addresses in APNIC region is being filled from ARIN region for now
8