Application of the Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS2008) on 4/11/2016 (El Nino Condition) Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook: The Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook has been computed using 4 methods: Croley's method 1 , the SFWMD empirical method 2 , a sub-sampling of El Nino years 3 and a sub- sampling of warm years of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in combination with El Nino ENSO years 4 . The results for Croley's method and the SFWMD empirical method are based on the CPC Outlook. Table of the Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlooks in feet of equivalent depth. All methods are updated on a weekly basis with observed net inflow for the current month. Season Croley's Method 1* SFWMD Empirical Method 2 Sub-sampling of El Nino ENSO Years 3 Sub-sampling of AMO Warm + El Nino ENSO Years 4 Value (ft) Condition Value (ft) Condition Value (ft) Condition Value (ft) Condition Current (Apr- Sep) N/A N/A 1.85 Wet 1.79 Wet 2.86 Very Wet Multi Seasonal (May- Apr) N/A N/A 2.53 Wet 3.99 Wet 6.05 Very Wet *Croley’s Method Not Produced For This Report See Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal tables for the classification of Lake Okeechobee Outlooks. The recommended methods and values for estimating the Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook are shaded and should be used in the LORS2008 Release Guidance Flow Charts.
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Application of the Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS2008) on 4/11/2016 (El Nino Condition)
Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook:
The Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook has been computed using 4 methods: Croley's method1, the SFWMD empirical method2, a sub-sampling of El Nino years3 and a sub-sampling of warm years of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in combination with El Nino ENSO years4. The results for Croley's method and the SFWMD empirical method are based on the CPC Outlook.
Table of the Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlooks in feet of equivalent depth. All methods are updated on a weekly basis with observed net inflow for the current month.
Season
Croley's
Method1*
SFWMD
Empirical
Method2
Sub-sampling of
El Nino ENSO
Years3
Sub-sampling of
AMO Warm + El
Nino ENSO
Years4
Value
(ft)Condition
Value
(ft)Condition
Value
(ft)Condition
Value
(ft)Condition
Current
(Apr-
Sep)
N/A N/A 1.85 Wet 1.79 Wet 2.86 Very Wet
Multi
Seasonal
(May-
Apr)
N/A N/A 2.53 Wet 3.99 Wet 6.05 Very Wet
*Croley’s Method Not Produced For This Report
See Seasonal and Multi-Seasonal tables for the classification of Lake Okeechobee Outlooks.
The recommended methods and values for estimating the Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook are shaded and should be used in the LORS2008 Release Guidance Flow Charts.
1803 cfs 14-day running average for Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow through 4/11/2016. According to the classification in Tributary Hydrologic Conditions table, this condition is Normal.
0.05 for Palmer Index on 4/10/2016.According to the classification in Tributary Hydrologic Conditions table, this condition is Normal.
LORS2008 Implementation on 4/11/2016 (ENSO El Nino Condition):
Water Supply Department Technical Input
Water Supply Outlook:
District wide, Raindar rainfall 0.02 inches for the week ending 4/11/2016. Lake stage on 4/11/2016 is 14.89 ft, down 0.20 ft from last week. The updated April 2016 SFWMM Dynamic Position Analysis percentile graph and tracking chart for Lake Okeechobee show that the lake stage is in the Low Operational Sub-Band.
The LORS2008 tributary indices are classified as Normal. The PDSI indicates normal condition and the LONIN is Normal. The classification is based on the wetter of the two.
Water Supply Risk Evaluation
Area Indicator Value Color Coded
Scoring Scheme
LOK
Projected LOK Stage for the next two months
Low Flow Sub-Band M
Palmer Index for LOK Tributary Conditions
0.05 L
(Normal)
CPC Precipitation Outlook 1 month: Normal L
3 months: Above Normal L
LOK Seasonal Net Inflow Forecast 1.79 ft (Normal to Extremely Wet)
L AMO warm/El Nino
LOK Multi-Seasonal Net Inflow Forecast 3.99 ft (Normal) L
AMO warm/El Nino
WCAs
WCA 1: Site 1-7, Site 1-8T, & Site 1-9 Average
Above Line 1 (16.20 ft) L
WCA 2A: Site 2-17 HW Above Line1 (11.90 ft) L
WCA-3A: 3 Station Average (Site 63, 64 and 65)
Above Line 1 (10.35 ft) L
LEC
Service Area 1 Year-Round Irrigation Rule
in effect L
Service Area 2 Year-Round Irrigation Rule
in effect L
Service Area 3 Year-Round Irrigation Rule
in effect L
Note: The water supply risk classification based on the Palmer index, as well as the LOK seasonal and multi-seasonal net inflow forecasts use slightly different classification intervals than those used by the 2008-LORS for classifying the tributary hydrologic condition (THC).
Back to Lake Okeechobee Operations Main PageBack to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers LORSS Homepage
)Lake Okeechobee SFWMM April 2016 Position Analysis
Percentiles PA_LA1
Mon Apr 11 15:25:07 2016
Historical
12
13
14
15
16
Mon Apr 11 15:25:07 2016
MAXP95P90P75P50P25P10P5MIN
Beneficial Use Band
HLM High Inter Low BasFlo BenUse
Intermediate Sub−Band
(See assumptions on the Position Analysis Results website)
3−18
−201
54−
1−20
154−
15−2
015
4−29
−201
55−
13−2
015
5−27
−201
56−
10−2
015
6−24
−201
57−
8−20
157−
22−2
015
8−5−
2015
8−19
−201
59−
2−20
159−
16−2
015
9−30
−201
510
−14−
2015
10−2
8−20
1511
−11−
2015
11−2
5−20
1512
−9−2
015
12−2
3−20
151−
6−20
161−
20−2
016
2−3−
2016
2−17
−201
63−
2−20
163−
16−2
016
3−30
−201
64−
13−2
016
−10000−5000
05000
1000015000200002500030000
Flo
w (
cfs)
Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow (LONIN) 14−day Running Average
Mon Apr 11 15:17:31 EDT 2016
< Very Wet< Wet> Dry> Very Dry
Mon Apr 11 15:17:31 EDT 2016
3−18
−201
54−
1−20
154−
15−2
015
4−29
−201
55−
13−2
015
5−27
−201
56−
10−2
015
6−24
−201
57−
8−20
157−
22−2
015
8−5−
2015
8−19
−201
59−
2−20
159−
16−2
015
9−30
−201
510
−14−
2015
10−2
8−20
1511
−11−
2015
11−2
5−20
1512
−9−2
015
12−2
3−20
151−
6−20
161−
20−2
016
2−3−
2016
2−17
−201
63−
2−20
163−
16−2
016
3−30
−201
64−
13−2
016
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Tributary Basin Condition Indicators as of April 11 2016Palmer Index
Mon Apr 11 15:17:31 EDT 2016
< Very Wet< Wet> Dry> Very Dry
Mon Apr 11 15:17:31 EDT 2016
Normal
Normal
NORMAL TOVERY WETTributary
HydrologicConditions
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
STARTLake Okeechobee
Water Level
AllDownstreamWCAs < max
of upperschedule+0.25 ft
MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
DesirableOR with minimum
Evergladesimpacts
Up to MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
AllDownstreamWCAs < max
of upperschedule+0.25 ft
MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
PumpMaximum
Practicableto WCAs
2008 LORSPart C: Establish Allowable Lake Okeechobee Releases to the Water Conservation Areas
High Lake Management Band
OTHERWISE
DRY
FALSE
TRUE
FALSE
TRUE
FALSE
TRUE
Note: This operational guidance provides essentialsupplementary information to be used in conjunction withother supporting documentation including text within theWater Control Plan.
High
Intermediate
Low
Base Flow
Fig
ure
7-3
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Daily
Apply Multi-SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
DRY
VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Lake level projected to rise to High Lake Management Band
VERY WET
FALSE
WET TO VERY WET
WETTributaryHydrologicConditions
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity
To Tidewater
2008 LORSPart D: Establish Allowable Lake Okeechobee Releases to Tide (Estuaries)
STARTLake Okeechobee
Level
DRY *
NORMAL OR WETTER
TributaryHydrologicConditions
TributaryHydrologicConditions
Lake Stagewithin 1.0 ft ofIntermediate
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
S-77 Up to 4000 cfsS-80 Up to 1800 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
S-77 Up to 6500 cfsS-80 Up to 2800 cfs
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
S-77 Up to 6500 cfsS-80 Up to 2800 cfs
S-77 Up to 4000 cfsS-80 Up to 1800 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
TRUE VERY WET
OTHERWISE
DRY
NORMAL TO WET
Lake level projected to rise to High
EITHER FORECAST INDICATESNORMAL TO VERY WET
BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
VERY WET
NORMAL TO WET
DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
WET TO VERY WET
DRY
NORMAL TO DRY
Note: This operational guidance provides essential supplementary information to be used in conjunctionwith other supporting documentation including text within the Water Control Plan.
NORMAL TO DRY
High Lake Management Band
High
Intermediate
Low *
* Very Dry Conditions may require that releases to tide (estuaries) be discontinued
NORMAL
SeasonalClimate/Hydro
Outlook &Meteorological
Forecast
OTHERWISE OTHERWISE
(NORMAL TO DRY)Base Flow *
Fig
ure
7-4
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and
Multi-Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlooks on a Monthly Basis
When conducting Base Flow releases, flows can be distributed East and West
up to 650 cfs as neededto minimize impacts or provide benefits
through S-80 and S-79
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
NORMAL TOVERY WETTributary
HydrologicConditions
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
STARTLake Okeechobee
Water Level
AllDownstreamWCAs < max
of upperschedule+0.25 ft
MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
DesirableOR with minimum
Evergladesimpacts
Up to MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
AllDownstreamWCAs < max
of upperschedule+0.25 ft
MaximumPracticableto WCAs
NoReleasesto WCAs
PumpMaximum
Practicableto WCAs
2008 LORS FORECASTPart C: Establish Allowable Lake Okeechobee Releases to the Water Conservation Areas
High Lake Management Band
OTHERWISE
DRY
FALSE
TRUE
FALSE
TRUE
FALSE
TRUE
Note: This operational guidance provides essential supplementary information to be used in conjunction with other supporting documentation including text within the Water Control Plan.
High
Intermediate
Low
Base Flow
Fig
ure
7-3
Apply TributaryCondition
Criteria Daily
Apply Multi-SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic Outlooks
on a Monthly Basis
DRY
VERY WET
NORMAL TO DRY
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Lake level projected to rise to High Lake Management Band
VERY WET
FALSE
WET TO VERY WET
WETTributaryHydrologicConditions
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
Up to Maximum Discharge Capacity
To Tidewater
2008 LORS FORECASTPart D: Establish Allowable Lake Okeechobee Releases to Tide (Estuaries)
STARTLake Okeechobee
Level
DRY *
NORMAL OR WETTER
TributaryHydrologicConditions
TributaryHydrologicConditions
Lake Stagewithin 1.0 ft ofIntermediate
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
Multi-Seasonal
Climate/HydroOutlook
S-77 Up to 4000 cfsS-80 Up to 1800 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
S-77 Up to 6500 cfsS-80 Up to 2800 cfs
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
Up to 30 dayMeteorological
Forecast
S-77 Up to 6500 cfsS-80 Up to 2800 cfs
S-77 Up to 4000 cfsS-80 Up to 1800 cfs
S-79 Up to 3000 cfsS-80 Up to 1170 cfs
SeasonalClimate/Hydrologic
Outlook
TRUE VERY WET
OTHERWISE
DRY
NORMAL TO WET
Lake level projected to rise to High
EITHER FORECAST INDICATESNORMAL TO VERY WET
BOTH FORECASTS INDICATE DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
DRY
VERY WET
NORMAL TO WET
DRY
NORMAL TO VERY WET
WET TO VERY WET
DRY
NORMAL TO DRY
Note: This operational guidance provides essential supplementary information to be used in conjunctionwith other supporting documentation including text within the Water Control Plan.
NORMAL TO DRY
High Lake Management Band
High
Intermediate
Low *
* Very Dry Conditions may require that releases to tide (estuaries) be discontinued
NORMAL
SeasonalClimate/Hydro
Outlook &Meteorological
Forecast
OTHERWISE OTHERWISE
(NORMAL TO DRY)Base Flow *
Fig
ure
7-4
Apply Meteorological Forecasts on aWeekly Basis; apply Seasonal and
Multi-Seasonal Climate/Hydrologic Outlooks on a Monthly Basis
When conducting Base Flow releases, flows can be distributed East and West
up to 650 cfs as neededto minimize impacts or provide benefits
through S-80 and S-79
S-79 Up to 450 cfsS-80 Up to 200 cfs
U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District Lake Okeechobee and Vicinity Report ** Preliminary Data - Subject to Revision **
Data Ending 2400 hours 10 APR 2016 _____________________________________________________________________________
Okeechobee Lake Regulation Elevation Last Year 2YRS Ago (ft-NGVD) (ft-NGVD) (ft-NGVD) *Okeechobee Lake Elevation 14.89 13.71 13.37 (Official Elv) Bottom of High Lake Mngmt= 17.07 Top of Water Short Mngmt= 11.45 Currently in Operational Management Band
Simulated Average LORS2008 [1965-2000] 12.83 Difference from Average LORS2008 2.06
10APR (1965-2007) Period of Record Average 14.07 Difference from POR Average 0.82
Today Lake Okeechobee elevation is determined from the 4 Int & 4 Edge stations
****S77 Structure outflow is being used to compute Total Outflow. ****S308 Structure outflow is being used to compute Total Outflow.
Okeechobee Pan Evaporation (inches): S77 0.21 S308 0.15 Average Pan Evap x 0.75 Pan Coefficient = 0.14" = 0.01'
Lake Average Precipitation using NEXRAD: = 0.00" = 0.00'
Evaporation - Precipitation: = 0.14" = 0.01' Evaporation - Precipitation using Lake Area of 730 square miles is equal to 2650 cfs out of the lake. Lake Okeechobee (Change in Storage) Flow is -10638 cfs or -21100 AC-FT ______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________
Note: Headwater, tailwater, and stage values below are instantaneous values unless otherwise specified.
*** NOTE: 1) Discharge from (0700-2100) is computed using Spillway and Sector Gate Discharges from 0700 hrs to 2100 hrs. 2) Discharge (ALL DAY) is computed using Spillway, Sector Gate and Lockages Discharges from 0015 hrs to 2400 hrs. ______________________________________________________________________________
(I) - Flows preceeded by "I" signify an instantaneous flow computed from the single value reported for the day ______________________________________________________________________________ * On 11 May 1999, Lake Okeechobee Elevation was switched from
Instantaneous 2400 value to an average-daily lake average. On 14 Mar 2001, due to the isolation of various gages within the standard 10 stations, the average of the interior 4 station gages was used as the Lake Okeechobee Elevation. On 05 November 2010, Lake Okeechobee Elevation was switched to a 9 gage mix of interior and edge gages to obtain a more reliable representation of the lake level. On 09 May 2011, Lake Okeechobee Elevation was switched to a 8 gage mix of interior and edge gages to obtain a more reliable representation of the lake level due to isolation of S135 from low lake levels. Today Lake Okechobee elevation is determined from the 4 Int & 4 Edge stations ++ For more information see the Jacksonville District Navigation website at http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/ $ For information regarding Lake Okeechobee Service Area water restrictions please refer to www.sfwmd.gov ______________________________________________________________________________ Report Generated 11APR2016 @ 14:07 ** Preliminary Data - Subject to Revision **
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan2015
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan2016
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Elev
in
Ft
NGVD
High Lake ManagementOkeechobee Avg ElevAverage Elev [1965-2007]Water Shortage Management
Lake Okeechobee
11APR16 13:45:24
WSE Classification Tables
Classification Tables
Supplemental Tables used in conjunction with the LORS2008 ReleaseGuidance Flow Charts • Class Limits for Tributary Hydrologic Conditions Table K-2 in the Lake Okeechobee Water Control Plan • 6-15 Day Precipitation Outlook Categories Table ?? in the Lake Okeechobee Water Control Plan • Classification of Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow for Seasonal Outlook Table K-3 in the Lake Okeechobee Water Control Plan • Classification of Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow for Multi-Seasonal Outlook Table K-4 in the Lake Okeechobee Water Control Plan
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