Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America Anji Seth International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Maisa Rojas, University of Chile Brant Liebmann, NOAA CDC Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America Anji Seth International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Maisa Rojas,
Jan 19, 2018
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003 V. Kousky, CPC Climatology ( ) Computed for Brazil Typical station coverage
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Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for
South America
Anji SethInternational Research Institute for Climate Prediction
Maisa Rojas, University of ChileBrant Liebmann, NOAA CDC
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Outline• Climatology of daily rainfall (V. Kousky, CPC)• Spatial Characteristics
• Observed Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985• Simulated Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985
• Temporal characteristics• Observed Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985• Simulated Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985
• Sensitivity: Local Forcing,Domain Effects• Preliminary Conclusions
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
•V. Kousky, CPC
•Climatology (1979-1995) Computed for Brazil
•Typical station coverage
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Annual RainfallFrequency (>1mm)
% days/year
V. Kousky, CPC
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Frequency (>1mm)% days/month
V. Kousky, CPC
•Central and Southeast:>85% (summer)<25% (winter)
•Northwest:>75% year round
•Northeast:>65% (jan-may)<15% (jun-dec)
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Frequency (>10 mm)% days/month
Peak frequencies in The northwest drop to 50%
V. Kousky, CPC
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Frequency (>25 mm)% days/month
Peak frequencies in The northwest drop to 10% (summer months)
Southern Brazil has Heavy rainfall events year round
V. Kousky, CPC
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Station Coverage for Observed Daily RainfallB. Liebmann, CDC
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Rainfall Frequency (>1 mm) % days/JFMAM
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Rainfall Frequency (>10 mm) % days/JFMAM
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Rainfall Frequency (>25 mm) % days/JFMAM
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
RegCM2 (Giorgi et al., 1993)
• 110x145x14• 60 km resolution• Remote:
Reanalyses 83,85 CCM3(x3) 83,85
• Local: deforestation
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Observed
RegCM
Frequency>1 mm
19851983
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Observed
RegCM
Frequency>10 mm
19851983
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Observed
RegCM
Frequency>25 mm
19851983
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Observed Daily Rainfall, 1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Observed Rainfall Frequency 1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Simulated, Observed Daily Rainfall
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Simulated, Observed Daily Rainfall
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Simulated*, Observed Daily Rainfall
1983 1985
*GCM>RegCM
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Simulated*, Observed Daily Rainfall
1983 1985
*GCM>RegCM
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency
1983 1985
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Preliminary Conclusions• Spatial Characteristics – using thresholds of 1,10,and 25 mm
• Observed Daily Rainfall frequencies were notable higher in 1985 than 1983 in Nordeste and the Amazon.• Simulated Daily Rainfall reproduced the observed patterns in the two years remarkably well.
• Temporal characteristics – time series and frequency distributions showed
• Observed Daily Rainfall was deficient throughout the 1983 season in Nordeste and early in the season in the Amazon.• Simulated Daily Rainfall captured the observed frequency distributions well in the reanalyses> RegCM
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003
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