An introduction to climate change

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An introduction to climate change

Tunbridge Wells Environment Strategy launch22 February 2005

Gerard Couper, Senior Consultant

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What I will cover in this presentation

• What is the greenhouse effect?• Is climate change real: the evidence• Why address climate change: impacts and opportunities• How should we respond: mitigation and adaptation• International and national policy• Predicted local impacts and what we can do about it

Acknowledgements: Steve Waller IDeA, Neil Gunn Environment Agency, Carbon Trust (Climate Change Challenge), ICCP (TAR 2001), DEFRA

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What is climate change?

• The world is warming• Much of the warming is to do with human emissions of

greenhouse gases• There will be a wide range of impacts

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Climate change: it is getting hotter

The Earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001

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The warming of central England climate (red) and surrounding UK coastal waters (blue).

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We are contributing to climate change

Human activities have increased the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. IPPC 2001

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Methane -- from the energy industry,

agricultural sources, and waste to landfill

Nitrous oxide -- mostly agricultural

sources

Carbon dioxide -- mostly from fossil fuel

combustion, from energy generation and

transport

UK Emissions of the UK Emissions of the Three Principal Greenhouse Gases Three Principal Greenhouse Gases

(GHGs)(GHGs)

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Other signs

• Retreat of glaciers• Extreme weather• Changing seasons

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Pastreze Glacier present day

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Why should we address climate change?

Wide range of potential impacts including• Damage from severe weather• Water shortages• Flooding• Health impacts• Agriculture• Biodiversity• Impacts on buildings and transport systems

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How should we address climate change?

Mitigation• Action to reduce greenhouse gases, and therefore reduce

future climate change impacts. Adaptation• Action to minimise the impacts of climate change and to

reduce its severity as it happens. Public services, businesses and communities need to adapt to the effects of climate change that are apparent now.

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International/ UK response: mitigation

• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992• Kyoto Protocol: Agreed 1997,came into force last week• UK Climate Change Programme: commitment to meet Kyoto

target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5%, and move towards its domestic goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010.

• Energy White Paper supports reduction of Greenhouse gases by 60% by 2050

• New UK Sustainable Development Strategy includes as key priority

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What can we do at a local level?

• Use less energy• Use more renewable energy• Encourage others to do the same • Address through the planning system

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Local activities generating GHGs

WasteWaste

TransportTransport

Energy Energy

Waste from corporate buildings (especially organic waste)

Vehicle Fleet, Staff Commuting and business travel

Energy used in offices, Leisure Centres, Schools, Depots and Street Lighting

CorporateCorporate GHG GHG EmissionsEmissions

Household and Industrial/commercial waste

Domestic, and Industrial/ Commercial distribution Private cars and public transport

Household Energy (HECA), Commercial and Industrial use of energy

CommunityCommunity GHG GHG EmissionsEmissions

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Predicting impacts and responding (Adaptation)

• UK Climate Impacts programme• South East Climate Change Partnership: research on

climate change threats and opportunities• Guidance on addressing Climate Change through planning• New research into likely impacts on development in

growth areas• Toolkit on water resource management

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Change in average summer and winter temperature (°C) by the 2080s, compared to a recent climate (1961-90), predicted by the Hadley Centre regional climate model. These predictions form the UKCIP2002 Medium-High climate change scenario.

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What is predicted for the South East?

• Hotter, drier summers• Warmer wetter winters• More variable weather • Sea level rise• Increased storm surges• Increased drought

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What difference does 1°C make?

• Our present climate is 5°C hotter than the last ice age• Depending on the scenario, our average temperature is

predicted to rise by 2.5° and 4.5°C by 2080• An extra 1°C increases the growing period for crops,

weeds and lawns by 2-3 weeks

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Local planning for climate change

Guidance available from Carbon Trust, DEFRA, ODPM and UKCIP on addressing implications for:

• Planning• Housing and Buildings• Transport and Highways• Health and Social Services• Environmental services

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Summary

• Climate change is happening now

• We should address climate change to avoid threats and take advantage of opportunities

• Key activities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are energy transport and waste

• The impacts of climate change should be planned for now