Zerihun G. Kelbore GSSS, University of Trento International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security SEARCA, College, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines November 2012 International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security 2012
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An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields and
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Zerihun G. Kelbore
GSSS, University of Trento
International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and
Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security
SEARCA, College, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines
November 2012
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
Introduction
Climate of Ethiopia: An Overview
Data and Methodology
Results
Simulation : Impacts of Future Climate Change on Crop
Yields and Yield Variability
Conclusion
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
Kiremt/Meher refers to the long and heavy rainy season
which lasts from June to September; correspond to the main
meher growing season.
Belg is a short and moderate rainy season that lasts from
February to May.
accounts for only 5 to 10 percent of the total annual grainproduction of the country; the remaining share goes to Meher
season harvest
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
IPCC forecasts change in climate
warming world (1.8 to 4.00C )
Increases in CO2 levels
Precipitation patterns would change
Sea levels would rise
Frequency of extreme weather events would increase
… and etc
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
Consequences
Agricultural production will be substantially affected, but impacts unevenly distributed across regions (low latitude and developing countries severely hit)
Global agricultural productions may decline by 16% by 2080, in developing countries by around 20% (Cline, 2007)
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
AFRICA
Considered the most disproportionately affected region in the world, with low levels of irrigation (only 6 %, while in Asia 38%)
Share of Agriculture in GDP is high
Particularly, in Sub-Saharan Africa it provides 70% of employment and contributes 30% to GDP
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
ETHIOPIA
Agriculture
Provides employment to more than 80% of the population
Contributes around 43% to overall GDP
90% of export earnings, 70% of raw materials to secondary
activities (MOFED, 2009/10)
But largely dependent on rains, only about 5% of the
cultivated land irrigated?
66% produced consumed, and only about 16 % marketed
(CSA, 2010)
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
The risk of climate extremes increase as very few farmers are
using irrigation
Drought risk could severely affect farmers` livelihood as it
may reduce farm production up to 90% (WB, 2003)
Farmers have traditional coping mechanisms, but fail in times
of drought
Other risk management options include, lower value, lower
yield, and lower risk cultivation; perpetuating poverty
(Dercon, 2005)
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
How average crop yields (maize, teff, and wheat) their variance responded to changes in weather?
How future climate changes will affect crop yield and its variability in Ethiopia?
International Conference on Climate Change Im
pacts and Adaptation for Food and Environm
ental Security 2012
Diverse topography Has 11 climatic zones broadly categorized as