Alvin M. Weinberg Lecture - Rockefeller University

Alvin M. Weinberg LectureOak Ridge National Laboratory

5 June 2003

Decarbonization: The Next 100 Years

Jesse H. AusubelProgram for the Human Environment

The Rockefeller Universityhttp://phe.rockefeller.edu

Falling Global Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Kg

C/G

J

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

H

H

C

H

H

CH H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

H

C

H

HH

Methane Gas

H:C = 4:1

Typical Oil

Typical Coal

H:C = 2:1

H:C = 0.5:1

H

H

H

H

H

C

H

C

C C

C C

C C

H H

C

C

C

C

H C

C

C

C

C

C

H

H

C

C

C

C

C

C H

Hydrogen-Carbon Composition of Fossil Fuels

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 210010-2

10-1

100

101

102

Decarbonization: Evolution of the Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C) in the World Primary Fuel Mix

Methane: H/C = 4

Oil: H/C = 2

Coal: H/C = 1

Wood: H/C = 0.1

Hydrogen Economy

Methane Economy

NonfossilHydrogen

H / CH

H + C

0.67

0.09

0.50

0.80

Year

Dt = 300 years (length of process)

1935 (midpoint of process)

0.90

Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985

Hydrocarbon fuels ranked by heat value

LPG

Natural Gas

Brown Coal A

Black Coal C Black Coal D

Brown Coal B

Firewood (dry)

Crude Oil (LHV)

Black Coal B

Black Coal A

Crude Oil (HHV)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

MJ

/kg

Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003

Growth pulses of maximum size of power plants

Source: Ausubel, 2001

tm= 2020(hypothetical)

340 MW 1040 MW(+340 MW)

4000 MW(+1040 MW)(+340 MW)

99%

90%

50%

10%

1%1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

tm= 1965tm=1929

102

101

100

10-1

10-2

year

F /

(1-

F)

combustor

1500º C400 atm

1133º C

70 atm 790º C400 atm

80º C400 atm

120º C70 atm

30º C

70 atm

80º C400 atm

1133º C

70 atm

condenser

regenerator

O2 CH4

Basic ZEPP Configuration, 400 atm case

pump

gas turbine generator

Source: After Ichihara, Tokyo Electric Power

Carnot Efficiencies for Power Plants

100

500

1000

1500

1700

600 800200 400 1000

ZEPP 63%

ZEPP 59%

ZEPP 70%Gas Turbine 50~55%

Gas Turbine 48%

Gas Turbine 43%

Steam Turbine (Ultra Supercritical) 42~43%

Steam Turbine (Conventional) 38~40%

Te m

pera

t ure

, Cel

s ius

Pressure, atmospheres Source: TEPCO

USA: Hydrogen Production, 1971-1999

104

105

106

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

mill

ion

s o

f cu

bic

fee

t

Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2002

Major fuels ranked by heat value

Uranium enriched to 3.5% in LWR

Firewood

Brown Coals

Crude Oils

LPG

Natural Gas

Hydrogen

Natural uranium in FBR

Natural uranium in CANDU

Natural uranium in LWR

with U & Pu recycle

Natural uranium in LWR

100

102

104

106

108

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

MJ/

kg

Black Coals

Source: N. Victor and J. Ausubel, 2003

Supergrid Energy Pipeline

MgB2

MgB2

ElectricalInsulation

ThermalInsulation

VacuumLiquid H2

@ 21 K

± 50,000 Vdc

100,000 A10 GW

Source: P. Grant, EPRI

ORNL 1.5 m HTS Triaxial Cable

• Prototype fabricated toevaluate superconductingproperties

• Each phase consists of twolayers of BSCCO-2223 HTStapes

• G-10 insert withthermocouples attachedused for calorimetricmeasurement of AC losses

ELECTRICAL TESTS OF A TRIAXIAL HTS CABLE PROTOTYPE J. W. Lue, J. A. Demko, J. C. Tolbert, U. K. Sinha, R. Grabovickic,G. C. Barber, M. J. Gouge, D. Lindsay, and R. L. Hughey, presented atCEC/ICMC 2001, to be published in Advances in Cryogenic

Engineering.

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 210010-2

10-1

100

101

102

Decarbonization: Evolution of the Ratio of Hydrogen (H) to Carbon (C) in the World Primary Fuel Mix

Methane: H/C = 4

Oil: H/C = 2

Coal: H/C = 1

Wood: H/C = 0.1

Hydrogen Economy

Methane Economy

NonfossilHydrogen

H / CH

H + C

0.67

0.09

0.50

0.80

Year

Dt = 300 years (length of process)

1935 (midpoint of process)

0.90

Source: Ausubel, 1996, after Marchetti, 1985