Alberta Labour Alberta Labour Alberta Labour Alberta Labour Market Outlook Market Outlook Market Outlook Market Outlook Released March 2011
Alberta LabourAlberta LabourAlberta Labour Alberta Labour Market OutlookMarket OutlookMarket OutlookMarket Outlook
Released March 2011
Factors AffectingAlberta’s Labour Market
• The pace of domestic and global economic recovery
Economic recovery in the United States (US)• Economic recovery in the United States (US)
• Value of the Canadian dollar
• Price of oil and natural gas
• Concerns about the environment and climate change
• Aging population
• Interprovincial and international net migrationp g
AlbertaComponents of Population Growth, 2005 - 2010Components of Population Growth, 2005 2010
Alberta's Population Growth by Component, 2005-2010
50,000
e
Natural Growth Net Interprovincial Net International
20,000
30,000
40,000
er o
f Peo
ple
0
10,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Num
be
* Figures for 2010 are based on the first three quarters only
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Figures for 2010 are based on the first three quarters only
Data Source: Statistics Canada.
Prepared by: Alberta Finance and Enterprise, Economics, Demography and Public Finance, December 22, 2010
AlbertaWorking Age Population (WAP) by Age Group
25%
30%2000 WAP: 2,306,900
2010 WAP: 2,960,900
18.9% 19.1%
22.7%
17.3%18.8%17.9%
19.9%
17.4%20%
25%
of W
AP
10.0%
12.0%13.4% 12.6%
10%
15%
Per c
ent (
%) o
5%
P
0%15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Age Group
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Canada and ProvincesLabour Force Participation Rates 2010Labour Force Participation Rates, 2010
67.9%64 2% 63 6% 65.4% 67.1% 65.5%69.6% 69.9% 72 9%60%
70%
80%
%)
Canada: 67.0%
59.9%64.2% 63.6% 72.9%
40%
50%
60%
atio
n Ra
te (%
10%
20%
30%
Par
ticip
a
0%NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
Province
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaParticipation Rate by Age Group and Sex
200094 4%100%
2010%100%
MaleFemale
73.2%
94.4%
65.3%
79.1%
68.0%
81.0%
65.2%
60%
80%
100%
atio
n ra
te (%
)
70.3%
93.5%
69.0%
78.7%
68.0%
80.2%
55.5%
66.7%
60%
80%
100%
47.8%
20%
40%
60%
our
forc
e pa
rtici
pa
55.5%
20%
40%
60%
0%
20%
15-24 years 25-44 years 45+ years Albertans (15+ years)
Age Group
Labo
0%
15-24 years 25-44 years 45+ years Albertans (15+ years)
Age Groupg p
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaLabour Force Statistics by Economic Region, 2010
Wood Buffalo – Cold Lake:Working Age Population: 99,900
Athabasca – Grande Prairie:Working Age Population: 189,800
Edmonton:
Labour Force: 79,300
Unemployment Rate: 5.0%
Labour Force: 139,600
Unemployment Rate: 6.8%
Jasper – Banff –Rocky Mountain House: Edmonton:
Working Age Population: 984,800
Labour Force: 702,500
Unemployment Rate: 6.7%
Rocky Mountain House:Working Age Population: 71,600
Labour Force: 56,000
Unemployment Rate: 5.4%
Camrose – Drumheller:Working Age Population: 155,500
Labour Force: 112 000
Red Deer:Working Age Population: 152,300
Labour Force: 110,700Labour Force: 112,000
Unemployment Rate: 4.8%
Lethbridge – Medicine Hat:Working Age Population: 217 200
Unemployment Rate: 6.2%
Calgary:Working Age Population: 1,089,800
Labo r Force 811 000 Working Age Population: 217,200
Labour Force: 146,200
Unemployment Rate: 6.4%
Labour Force: 811,000
Unemployment Rate: 6.9%
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Employment by Industry, 2010Alberta
p y y y,
150 9
219.3
231.5
Professional Scientific and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
104.9
105.2
125.2
129.5
150.9
Transportation and Warehousing
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Accommodation and Food Services
Educational Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
74.5
77.0
86.9
98.4
Wholesale Trade
Information, Culture and Recreation
Public Administration
Other Services
Services-Producing sector: 1,476.4
124 6
140.2
206.5
72.9
M f t i
Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction
Construction
Business, Building and Other Support Services
3.4
18.4
47.1
124.6
Forestry and Logging with Support Activities
Utilities
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Number Employed (000's)
Goods-Producing sector: 540.2
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Number Employed (000 s)
AlbertaChange in Employment by IndustryChange in Employment by Industry
2009 (000's)
2010 (000's) % Change
Change in Employment by Industry, 2009 - 2010
(000 s) (000 s) Total, all industries 2,025.2 2,016.6 -0.4% Goods-Producing Sector 537.2 540.2 0.6% Agriculture 53.7 47.1 -12.3% Forestry and Logging with Support Activities 3.1 3.4 9.7%Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 138 8 140 2 1 0% Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 138.8 140.2 1.0%
Utilities 21.3 18.4 -13.6% Construction 195.9 206.5 5.4% Manufacturing 124.5 124.6 0.1% Services-Producing Sector 1,487.9 1,476.4 -0.8%Wholesale Trade 77.6 74.5 -4.0% Wholesale Trade 77.6 74.5 4.0%
Retail Trade 231.6 231.5 0.0% Transportation and Warehousing 106.1 104.9 -1.1% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 111.9 105.2 -6.0% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 153.5 150.9 -1.7% Business, Building and Other Support Services 68.3 72.9 6.7%, g pp Educational Services 134.2 129.5 -3.5% Health Care and Social Assistance 202.0 219.3 8.6% Information, Culture and Recreation 80.9 77.0 -4.8% Accommodation and Food Services 129.3 125.2 -3.2% Other Services 102.3 98.4 -3.8%
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Public Administration 90.3 86.9 -3.8%
AlbertaEmployment by Occupation, 2010p y y p ,
478.6Sales and service
162.5
354.4
373.2
Management
Business, finance and administrative
Trades, transport and equipment operators
156.5
157.9
162.5
Natural and applied sciences and related
Social science, education, government and religion
Management
60 4
106.7
122.0
U i t i f t i d tiliti
Unique to primary industry
Health
44.4
60.4
Art, culture, recreation and sport
Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities
Employed (000's)
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaChange in Employment by Occupationg p y y p
2009 2010
Change in Employment by Occupation, 2009 - 20102009
(000's)2010
(000's) % Change
Total, all occupations 2,025.2 2,016.6 -0.4% Management occupations 163.1 162.5 -0.4% Business, finance and administrative occupations 358.6 354.4 -1.2% Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 166.7 156.5 -6.1% Health occupations 111.0 122.0 9.9% Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion 157.6 157.9 0.2% Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport 45.4 44.4 -2.2% Sales and service occupations 481.3 478.6 -0.6%
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations 369.1 373.2 1.1% Occupations unique to primary industry 109.0 106.7 -2.1% Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 63.3 60.4 -4.6%
AlbertaHistorical Unemployment, 2000 - 2010p y ,
142.1 140.7140 0160.0
s)
The unemployment
82.9 79.894.4 92.9 87.5
75.2 68.4 72.8 77.0
60 080.0
100.0120.0
140.0
oym
ent (
000'
s
levels in 2009 and 2010 were the highest since 1984
0.020.0
40.060.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Unem
plohighest since 1984
when 145,400 people were unemployed 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Yearunemployed.
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Canada and ProvincesUnemployment Rate, 2010p y ,
16%
14.4%
11 2%
12%
14%
te (%
)
11.2%
8.0%
6 5%7.6%
9.3%8.7%
9.3%
6%
8%
10%
ploy
men
t Rat
Canada = 8.0%
5.4% 5.2%6.5%
2%
4%
6%
Une
mp
0%NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
Province
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Alberta’sUnemployment Rate, 2000 - 2010
Alberta’s average Unemployment rate Alberta 2000 - 2010
unemployment rate of 6.5% in 2010 was the third
Unemployment rate, Alberta, 2000 - 2010
5.0% 4.7%5.3% 5.1%
4.7%4.0%
3 5% 3 6%
6.6% 6.5%
5.0%6.0%7.0%
t Rat
e (%
)
2010 was the third lowest in the country, behind Saskatchewan’s
3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%
Une
mpl
oym
ent
Saskatchewan’s 5.2% and Manitoba’s 5.4%.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
U
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaUnemployment Rate by Industry, 2010
6.4%
6.6%8.3%
Information, Culture and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services
Business, Building and Other Support Services
3.8%
4.3%4.6%
5.9%
6.4%
Transportation and Warehousing Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Information, Culture and Recreation
2.0%
2.9%3.0%
3.7%
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Services-ProducingSector: 4.3%
4 0%
6.0%
7.7%
N/A*
Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction
Manufacturing
Construction
Public Administration
4.0%
N/A*
N/A*N/A*
Agriculture
Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Utilities
Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction
Unemployment Rate (%)
Goods-ProducingSector: 5.8%
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
* N/A denotes data suppressed by Statistics Canada
Unemployment Rate (%)
AlbertaUnemployment Rate by Occupation, 2010
6 0%
6.9%
S l d i
Trades, transport and equipment operators
5.2%
5.9%
6.0%
Unique to primary industry
Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities
Sales and service
3.8%
3.9%
5.2%
Business, finance and administrative
Art, culture, recreation and sport
Unique to primary industry
2.7%
3.7%
Management
Natural and applied sciences and related
1.3%
2.2%
Health
Social science, education, government and religion
U l R (%)
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
Unemployment Rate (%)
AlbertaAverage Hourly Wages, 2000 - 2010
• After increasing by over $1.00 annually from 2004 24
26
$1.00 annually from 2004 to 2009, Alberta’s average hourly wage rate increased by only 35 18
20
22
urly
Wag
e ($
)
cents in 2010 to $25.05.
• Alberta has had the highest average hourly 12
14
16
Ave
rage
Ho
highest average hourly wage rate in Canada since 2006.
102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaAverage Hourly Wage by Industry, 2010
$29.87
$31.45$31.66
Educational Services
Professional, Scientif ic and Technical Services
Public Administration
$21.82
$23.82
$25.35$25.87
Other Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Health Care and Social Assistance
$13.89
$18.83$19.86
$21.76
Accommodation and Food Services
Trade (Wholesale and Retail)
Business, Building and Other Support Services
Information, Culture and RecreationServices-Producing sector: $23.57
$25 66
$27.33
$35.00
$38.33
Manufacturing
Construction
Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Oil and Gas
Utilities
Goods-Producing$17.50
$25.66
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Average Hourly Wage ($)
Goods Producing sector: $29.45
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaAverage Hourly Wage by Occupation, 2010
$36.86
$37.82
Natural and applied sciences and related
Management
$26 81
$30.08
$30.10
$36.86
Unique to primary industry
Social science, education, government and religion
Health
Natural and applied sciences and related
$23 80
$24.36
$25.91
$26.81
Art culture recreation and sport
Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities
Trades, transport and equipment operators
Unique to primary industry
$16.53
$22.71
$23.80
Sales and service
Business, f inance and administrative
Art, culture, recreation and sport
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Average Hourly Wage ($)
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010)
AlbertaEmployment, 1999-2013p y ,
From 2011 to 2013 the
Projected
22502010: 2,016,600
2013: 2,165,500
2013, the projected growth in the 1750
2000
nt (0
00's
)1999: 1,543,200
2005: 1,825,600
number of employed Albertans will 1250
1500
Empl
oym
en
be 148,900.1000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year
Data Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Historical Review (2010),Alberta Modified Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) Outlook, 2009-2013, Industry Employment Outlook
AlbertaAverage Employment Growth by Industry, 2010-2013
2.9%3.2%
3.3%
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Business, Building and Other Support Services
%2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
H l h C d S i l A i
Other Services
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Information, Culture and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
1.5%1.6%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Public Administration
Educational Services
Transportation and Warehousing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Services-Producing sector: 2.5%
1 4%1.5%
2.2%
2.4%
Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction
Forestry and Logging with Support Activities
Construction
Utilities
G1.4%
1.1%Agriculture
Manufacturing
Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction
Average Annual Employment Growth (%), 2010-2013
0.3%
Goods-Producing sector: 1.5%
Data Source: Alberta Modified COPS Outlook 2010-2013, Industry Employment Outlook
AlbertaOccupational Demand and Supply Outlook, 2009-2019
Shortages and SurplusesShortages and Surpluses
Demand Supply
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
Sup
ply
(000
s)
Demand Supply
1,800
1,900
2,000
Dem
and,
S
Demand 1,899 1,906 1,947 1,988 2,038 2,079 2,118 2,181 2,242 2,305 2,362
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Demand/Supply less than 1 denotes surplus
D d/S l t th 1 d t h t
Demand 1,899 1,906 1,947 1,988 2,038 2,079 2,118 2,181 2,242 2,305 2,362
Supply 2,033 2,032 2,063 2,091 2,127 2,154 2,177 2,225 2,269 2,315 2,354
Demand/Supply 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00
Data Source: Alberta’s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook 2009-2019
Demand/Supply greater than 1 denotes shortage
AlbertaTotal Employment Growth by Skill Level, 2010-2013
8%
4.8% 5.2%
6.2%6.5%
6.1%
5%
6%
7%
row
th (%
)
2%
3%
4%
oym
ent G
r
0%
1%
2%
U i it D C ll S d S h l O th j b T i i M t
Empl
University Degree College orApprenticeship
Secondary Schooland/or OccupationSpecif ic Training
On-the-job Training Management
Required Skill Level
Data Source: Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook, 2010-2020, Occupations by Skill
AlbertaEducational Attainment by Sex, 2010-2019
Male and Female Educational Attainment, 2010-2019
F l M l
30%
35%
Females Males
7% 5% 5.3%
0% 28.8
%
31.5
%
5.2% 29.9
%
.0%
5% .8%
8%
32.1
%
32.7
%
3.1%
25.9
%
10%
15%
20%
25%
20.7
18.5 25
20.0 2522.
20.5
22 20. 8 23 2
0%
5%
10%
Less Than High College University2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019 2010 2019
Less ThanHigh
School
HighSchool
Collegeand Trade
UniversityDegree
Data Source: Alberta’s Occupational Supply Outlook ModelNote: For more information, please refer to
Alberta’s Occupational Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills 2009-2019
Conclusion
• Alberta’s pace of economic recovery is expected to improve in 2011.
• It will still be dependent on improvements in world• It will still be dependent on improvements in world commodity prices, the pace of global economic recovery, particularly the US economic recovery, and the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar.
• Unemployment levels will continue to decline this year.
• Labour supply pressures are expected to resurface for some pp y p poccupations in the medium and long term due to Alberta’s aging population.
• Investment in innovation and skills upgrading are key toInvestment in innovation and skills upgrading are key to finding employment in Alberta in the coming years.
• Medium to long term labour force planning should continue to ens re Alberta has the skilled labo r force it req ires into ensure Alberta has the skilled labour force it requires in the future.
For More Information on Departmental Initiatives and Web Sites of Interest . . .
• Alberta Employment and Immigration (Labour Market Information):
Web Sites of Interest . . .
http://employment.alberta.ca/lmi
• Alberta Learning Information Service:
www.alis.alberta.ca
• Canada-Alberta JOBS (Job Order Bank Service):
www.jobbank.gc.ca
• Statistics Canada:
www.statcan.gc.ca
• Alberta-Canada
albertacanada comwww.albertacanada.com