Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected James Overland NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle
Feb 12, 2016
Alaskan Arctic Economic Access : Faster than Expected
James OverlandNOAAPacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Seattle
Alaska
250 Miles ofOpen Water North of Alaska
NOAA Cross-Line Office Response to Shell 2012 Sea Ice Season Request
Shell OilKulluk
Shell Oil
SEA ICE SEPTEMBER 2012~50 % loss of extent from climatology
NSIDC
Sea Ice Reanalysis recently verified by satellite thickness estimates
Schweiger et al. 2011, Maslowski et al. 2012Laxon et al. 2013
75 % Loss in Sea Ice VolumeSince the 1980s
June Snow Cover 2012 relative to 1971-2000
Polar Bears Loss of Habitat Walrus haul-outs move to North Of Alaska Land
Walrus calf Carin Ashjian, 2004
Ringed Ribbon
Atmospheric Storm in Pacific Arctic
September 2010 and August 2012Alaska
2010
“Arctic Amplification”: Why New Normal? Global Warming +Multiple Feedbacks
Global Warming
Reduction of Arctic sea Ice
Arctic amplification
Surface albedo decrease
Atmosphere warming
Heat releases to atmosphere in the fall.
Teleconnection and circulation pattern change
Ocean absorbs more heat
JAS SSTASept Sea Ice ExtentOND Temp Anomaly
ArcticAmplification
From E Carmack
Cascading Climate Impacts to Ocean and Biology
“Better” CMIP5 Climate Models
“Better” CMIP5 Climate Models
Predictions
Human forcing is known or already in the climate system. Summer Arctic wide sea ice loss is very likely to occur within a decade or two, based on multiple information. But summer open water is happening now in Alaska
For 2100: Model Results
Mitigation scenario (Rcp 4.5) late fall +7 °C ; late spring +2 °C
Business as usual (Rcp 8.5) late fall +13 °C ; late spring +5 °C
Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Hot Arctic-Cold Continents
Added Ocean Heat Storage and Heat Flux to Atmosphere from New Sea Ice Free Areas
Increased Weather Linkages?Arctic-Mid Latitude Linkages “Warm Arctic-Cold Continents”
February 2010Winter 2009-2010 was most extreme in 145 years of Measurements
Potential Arctic Connections can make it colder and snowier in Mid-latitude winter and Drought in Summer (varies a lot)Not Just Global Warming Everywhere