Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Saudi Arabia-3

1. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 1 of 14 02/08/2015 Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Saudi Arabia-3 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is the early winner in Yemen. -- Bruce Riedel .Muhammed's Army may eventually come home to Mecca.". No matter how detractors try to portray Iran as the aggressor, it is Saudi support of Salafist and Wahhabi jihadi extremists Al Qaeda, the Nusra Front, and ISIS, to name a few that has set the Middle East aflame. That is the real danger that can engulf the world, not Irans nuclear program. Saudi Defense Minister Mohammad bin Salman threatened to launch war on Kuwait after differences between the two Persian Gulf Arab states escalated over Khafji oilfield. An official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Yonhap News that 20 scud missiles reportedly fired into Saudi Arabia over the past few months were acquired from North Korea. The US State Department gave its approval on Wednesday for a possible foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles and equipment, worth $5.4 billion. The US Defense Department has awarded major weapons maker Raytheon to provide the Persian Gulf Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with 355 air-to-ground missiles amid its persisting campaign of aerial strikes against civilian and economic targets in neighboring Yemen. SANAA, Yemen--From his exile in Saudi Arabia, Yemens president on Wednesday ordered that militias battling Shiite rebels in Yemen be merged with his national army units, a move that comes in an apparent attempt to unify forces fighting on the ground. It was not immediately clear how the order would translate on the front-lines in Yemen, where fierce, months-long fighting has pitted Iran-backed Shiite rebels known as Houthis and troops loyal to the countrys former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, against southern separatists, local and tribal militias, Sunni Islamic militants and loyalists of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. According to Mr. Hadis adviser, Maj. Gen. Jafaar Mohammed Saad, authorities are working on implementing the decision in the fastest time possible to integrate the militias, known as Popular Resistance units--a vague term used for a wide specter of groups opposed to the Houthis. However, security and military officials said they fear the order could provide a path for extremists such as al-Qaida to infiltrate military ranks. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to journalists. Saudi DM Threatens to Occupy Kuwait C: When some time ago former Iraq leader Saddam did it the world spun of. TEHRAN (FNA 2 Aug )- Saudi Defense Minister Mohammad bin Salman threatened to launch war on Kuwait after differences between the two Persian Gulf Arab states escalated over Khafji oilfield. "Mohammad bin Salman threatened that his country would attack and occupy Kuwait, claiming that not only Khafji oilfield but also entire Kuwait is part of the Saudi territories based on historical documents," Middle-East Panorama quoted intelligence sources of the Persian Gulf Arab littoral states as saying. Kuwait has complained that the continued shut down of Khafji oilfield it shares with Saudi Arabia will incur huge losses Riyadh must compensate for in the future. Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Al Omair in a letter to his Saudi counterpart Ali Al Naimi urged him "to take adequate measures to ... resume production at Khafji. By keeping production and exports shut, Kuwait will incur huge losses which will be borne by the Saudi government for violation of the (50-year old) agreement and the 2010 operations agreement". The sources referred to Salman's harsh reaction to Kuwait's claims, and quoted him as saying that "we saved Kuwait from Saddam's claws and now who is there to free it from our claws". "Kuwait has no superiority over us and is a country stretched over a piece of land one-fourth of Riyadh," he added, according to the sources. The field has been shut since October last year for non-

2. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 2The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 2 of 14 02/08/2015 compliance with new Saudi environmental standards. It is operated by Al-Khafji Joint Operations Co (KJO), a joint venture between AGOC, a subsidiary of state oil firm Saudi Aramco, and Kuwait Gulf Oil Co (KGOC). Kuwait has reportedly taken the case to an international court of arbitration, making Saudi Arabia's young defense minister even more wrathful. Before the closure, the Khafji field produced around 280,000 bpd to 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also share the Wafra oilfield, which has been shut since May due to operating difficulties. US oil major Chevron operates the field on behalf of the Saudi government. South Korean intelligence claims that North Korea sold missiles to Yemeni rebels, which were then used against Saudi Arabia. An official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Yonhap News that 20 scud missiles reportedly fired into Saudi Arabia over the past few months were acquired from North Korea. No further details were given to back up that conclusion, but intelligence services in South Korea and the United States have known about North Korean missile sales for a long time, writes Jess McHugh for The International Business Times. "North Korea has sold missiles to Yemen and sent missile engineers to that country in the 1990s," a former North Korean intelligence official told South Korea's Yonhap News Agency. An independent expert told VICE News the South Korean report about the North Korean origins of the missiles is likely accurate. "Back in 2002, Yemen purchased around 20 Scuds from the North Koreans," Joseph Bermudez, an arms expert with All Source Analysis, said. "So it's likely the Scuds being used in the conflict did come from North Korea originally." US To Sell Saudis 355 Missiles to be Used in the War on Yemen By Press TV Global Research, July 26, 2015 Image: A US-made AGM-154 air-to-ground missile being brought to the flight deck of an aircraft carrier The US Defense Department has awarded major weapons maker Raytheon to provide the Persian Gulf Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with 355 air-to-ground missiles amid its persisting campaign of aerial strikes against civilian and economic targets in neighboring Yemen. According to a Pentagon announcement cited Saturday by the Russia-based Sputnik News, in a $180- million contract assigned to the arms manufacturer, Raytheon is to deliver the AGM-154 series missiles to the Saudi regime in a move clearly regarded as a bid to support the aerial strikes against Yemen. The AGM-154 is described as a Global Positioning System and infrared guided air-to- ground missile with stand-off capability. The contract, the report adds, also includes the delivery of 200 AGM-154C-1 missiles to the US Navy. Washington, the report adds, has justified the missile sales to Riyadh as part of an agreement by Persian Gulf Arab dictatorships to expand their military cooperation with Washington amid concerns over the recent nuclear talks conclusion with Iran as well as the Islamic Republics persisting influence as a major power and the most stable nation in the strategic region. Meanwhile, the oil-rich Saudi Arabia, widely regarded as a US client in the Persian Gulf region, has been among the worlds largest importers of lethal weaponry over the years and has significantly expanded its purchase of armaments in recent months, becoming the worlds top importer in 2015 so far. This is while Riyadh signed major arms deals worth billions of dollars with France last month for the purchase of patrol ships, border guard helicopters and aircraft as it escalated its war effort against Yemen. The announcement of the deals came during a visit by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud to Paris. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius defended the selling of French patrol boats to

3. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 3The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 3 of 14 02/08/2015 Riyadh, claiming that they are meant to enhance the capability of the Saudi Coast Guard, which is today facing growing threats. Saudi Arabia has been carrying out airstrikes against Yemen since March 26 without a UN mandate. The strikes are meant to undermine the Houthi Ansarullah movement and restore power to fugitive former President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, a staunch ally of the Al Saud regime. Thousands have been killed and at least 11,000 more injured in the airstrikes. US State Dept. OKs PAC-3 Sale to Saudi By Awad Mustafa 1:54 a.m. EDT July 30, 2015 (Photo: Lockheed Martin) ABU DHABI The US State Department gave its approval on Wednesday for a possible foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missiles and equipment, worth $5.4 billion. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of the possible sale and is awaiting approval to execute. The Saudi government requested 600 PAC-3 cost-reduction initiative missiles with containers, according to DSCA, along with eight test missiles, telemetry kits, guidance- enhanced missiles, fire solution computers, launcher modification kits and other related equipment. Word of the possible sale comes just days after Defense Secretary Ash Carter was in the kingdom meeting with his counterpart there. 'The timing of the PAC-3 intent to sell is notable because of Secretary of Defense Ash Carter's visit to Saudi Arabia a few days ago. It's a sweetener," said Theodore Karasik, a geo-political and defense analyst based in the United Arab Emirates. "The PAC-3 is meant to augment Saudi missile defense against not only the Houthis [militias in Yemen] but the Iranian missile threat in the near to medium term." According to the DSCA's statement, the proposed sale will modernize and replenish Saudi Arabia's current Patriot missile stockpile, which is becoming obsolete and difficult to sustain due to age and limited availability of repair parts. "The purchase of the PAC-3 missiles will support current and future defense missions and promote stability within the region," the DSCA said. "Saudi Arabia, which already has Patriot missiles in its inventory, will have no difficulty absorbing these additional missiles into its armed forces." Despite some reports that the older Patriot systems may have failed in action on the Saudi-Yemeni border, Karasik said, newer PAC-3 systems may make up for the deficit as the Houthi SCUD threat is likely to fester for years, according to some Gulf Cooperation Council officials. "It will take some time to bring this PAC-3 package online because Congress still has to approve the sale and the systems need to be operationalized in the kingdom itself," Karasik added. The principal contractors will be Dallas-based Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control and Tewksbury, Massachusetts-based Raytheon. The DSCA added that it is unknown if an offset agreement will be made, as Saudi Arabia requires them for such a purchase. "It will be determined during negotiations between Saudi Arabia and the contractor," the DSCA stated. The delivery will take up to five years, the DSCA added, for equipment deprocessing, fielding, system checkout, training and technical logistics support. If approved, the deal will require 30 US government and 40 contractor representatives to travel to Saudi Arabia. "Lockheed Martin is supporting the US government and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia as they discuss the potential sale of additional PAC-3 missiles as part of the upgrade of the Royal Saudi Air Defense Force," Lockheed said in a statement issued Wednesday. "We look forward to providing this critical capability to our allies, consistent with US government policy." Saudi-led coalition plans ground attacks in Yemen after taking key city

4. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 4The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 4 of 14 02/08/2015 BEIRUT After four months of setbacks, fighters backed by Saudi Arabia have seized the offensive in Yemens war, taking control of a major city and pressing to expand ground operations against rebel forces. The shift in momentum after the Saudi-led coalition failed to make headway appears to be due to the arrival since mid-July of hundreds of Yemeni fighters who had been secretly trained in Saudi Arabia. The contingent could help turn the tide in the war, which pits Shiite Houthi rebels from the north against largely Sunni forces aligned with exiled President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. This week, Saudi-backed fighters attacked areas north of the southern port city of Aden in an apparent effort to enlarge recent gains there against the Houthis. Residents said the fighters are preparing to assault the rebel-held al-Anad base, Yemens biggest military airfield, 30 miles north of Aden. If the Saudi-backed militiamen can consolidate control beyond Aden, they could bring the rebels to the negotiating table or at least carve out a foothold in the south for the Saudi-trained force to gather strength for future assaults. But it is not clear whether the gains against the Houthis will help end the war anytime soon. The Houthis are tough fighters who are poised to put up stiff resistance. The tribes and militias fighting the Houthis alongside the newly trained force do not all share Saudi Arabias goals in the conflict. The escalation also risks further roiling an impoverished country whose people are already on the brink of famine, according to U.N. officials and aid agencies. A five-day cease-fire that was supposed to begin Sunday to allow the delivery of food, fuel and other desperately needed aid items never took hold, with both sides continuing to mount attacks. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda-linked extremists appear to be taking advantage of the chaos to boost their presence. Residents in Aden say the extremists are participating in the assaults by the Saudi-led coalition, perhaps seeking to win local support. Saudi Arabia and Egypt sign 'Cairo Declaration', Regional powers sign pact to boost economic and military ties, and pledge to work together to create joint Arab force. 31 Jul 2015 Egypt and Saudi Arabia have signed a pact in Cairo aimed at boosting military and economic ties between the two Arab allies. In a statement released after a meeting between President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Saudi Defence Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday, Sisi's office said the two leaders also will work to create a joint Arab military force. Arab defence and foreign ministers are to gather in Cairo to discuss the modalities of the force on August 27. "The two sides stressed the need to exert all efforts to boost security and stability in the region, and to work together to protect Arab national security," Egypt's presidential office said. In what they called a "Cairo Declaration," they pledged to enhance cooperation and investments in the energy and transport sectors. Relations between the two countries have warmed since the 2013 ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, with Saudi Arabia offering billions in aid to Egypt. In return, Cairo has participated in a Saudi-led bombing campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Cairo had previously said it would also be prepared to commit ground troops if required. Saudi Arabia and the Nuclear Agreement with Iran REUTERS - Saudi Arabia's Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former head of the kingdom's intelligence services and its veteran ambassador to Washington, has said Iran's nuclear deal will allow it to get an atomic bomb and "wreak havoc in the region". U.S. State Department approved a $5.4 billion sale of 600 Lockheed-made PAC-3 missiles to Saudi Arabia, alongside an additional half billion dollars in ammunition for various smaller weapons. The sale of so many PAC-3 missilesthe most advanced missile for the Patriot missile launcher and built by Raytheon RTN -0.68% is the latest in a string of high-priced, high-profile arms deals between the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf Cooperation Council allies in the region. It marks the first major arms deal since the Iran nuclear deal struck earlier this month raised the prospect of reduced sanctions against the state. The deal

5. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 5The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 5 of 14 02/08/2015 would lift Irans conventional arms embargo within five years and leave the country free to pursue long-range missile technologies within eight. Saturday, 1 August 2015, Article: INSS InsightSaudi Arabia and the Nuclear Agreement with Iran Yoel Guzansky INSS Insight No. 723, July 22, 2015 The nuclear agreement reached by the major powers with Iran is not good news for Saudi Arabia, because the agreement means that Iran, Riyadhs main ideological and geo-strategic rival, has received international recognition as a nuclear threshold state. Saudi Arabia regards this highly significant development as evidence of Irans growing power. In addition to the technical significance of the agreement, the kingdom fears that the deal is an opening to an Iranian-American rapprochement at the expense of its own relations with the United States. Moreover, in view of the international seal of approval for uranium enrichment in Iran, the possibility that the kingdom will take a similar route, even against American opposition, cannot be ruled out. And even if Saudi Arabias path to nuclear capability is not guaranteed, its very presence in the arms race is liable to set in motion various processes with negative consequences for regional stability in general, and for Israel in particular. The nuclear agreement reached by the major powers with Iran is not good news for Saudi Arabia, because the agreement means that Iran, Riyadhs main ideological and geo-strategic rival, has received international recognition as a nuclear threshold state. Saudi Arabia regards this highly significant development as evidence of the growing power of Iran at the expense of the kingdom. The official Saudi Arabian news agency issued a positive, albeit cautious, statement in response to the announcement of the agreement. The wording was similar to the remarks by King Salman to President Obama in the telephone call initiated by the President after the agreement was signed: Saudi Arabia supports any agreement that guarantees preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The Saudi Arabian-owned daily newspaper a-Sharq al-Awsat, however, was more critical of the agreement, for example, in the article Iran Nuclear Deal Opens the Gates of Evil in the Middle East," by the editor, Salman Aldosary. Furthermore, even if the royal house chose not to criticize the agreement publicly, its actions are likely to indicate its dissatisfaction concerning the implications of the agreement. In addition to the technical significance of the agreement, the kingdom fears that the deal is an opening to an Iranian-American rapprochement at the expense of its own relations with the United States. Riyadh is concerned that the deal will enable Iran to maintain its basic nuclear capabilities, and at the same time, unless resolute countermeasures are taken, increase its influence in the Middle East. Furthermore, there is a risk that criticism of the Iranian regime over its conduct in internal affairs and especially in the regional theater, where Iran has been involved in subversion for years, will constitute grounds for Iran violating the agreement. American sources insist on a separation between the nuclear question and regional issues, but the internal conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are liable to become hostages to the agreement with Iran. In other words, headed by the United States, countries will be deterred from pursuing a policy opposed to the interests of Iran, out of concern that in response Iran will disavow its commitments under the agreement and renew forbidden activity in the nuclear realm. In view of the international struggle against the Islamic State, Iran has won the status of a (relatively) responsible player, with whom it is possible to do business. From the Saudi perspective, the United States is liable to reward Iran for the concessions it made in the agreement by granting it more freedom of action, both to realize its political goals in the Middle East and to thwart processes that do not serve those goals. At the same time, the removal of sanctions will provide Iran with resources to

6. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 6The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 6 of 14 02/08/2015 enhance its regional influence and render it both less economically vulnerable and more aggressive in promoting its goals. Saudi Arabia is concerned that Irans increased self confidence following the agreement will enable it to intervene more easily in various theaters and recruit additional players to the regional axis it leads. In this context, the Iranians have for some time been trying to drive a wedge between several Gulf states and Saudi Arabia. After the agreement, a greater Iranian effort in this direction is likely, mainly involving Qatar and Oman. It appears that this is also the background to Saudi Arabias increased activism aimed at strengthening the Sunni front against Iran and recruiting additional actors, such as Turkey and Hamas. Even though the agreement with Iran is not expected to prompt Saudi Arabia to launch a military nuclear program immediately, the agreement joining the unprecedented conventional military buildup in the kingdom has already led Riyadh to adopt a strategy that keeps all of its nuclear options open. The kingdom declared its civilian nuclear intentions as early as 2006, and since then has considered the use of nuclear technology for a range of purposes. It announced a massive nuclear program at an estimated cost of over $100 billion, and has signed a series of nuclear cooperation agreements with many countries, including Russia, Argentina, China, South Korea, and France. The development of a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia is likely to serve several purposes. On the one hand, the plan is consistent with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and is likely to prove that Saudi Arabia can also play the game. At the same time, such a program, especially Saudi Arabian rhetoric about its refusal to forego uranium enrichment capability, constitutes a signal to the international community about the need to continue pressuring Iran to fulfill its part of the agreement. In view of the international seal of approval for uranium enrichment in Iran, the possibility that the kingdom will take a similar route, even against American opposition, cannot be ruled out. Indeed, a US Congressional report on this topic points out that the kingdom will not hesitate to aggressively bypass or risk alienating the United States in order to protect Saudi interests." The Saudi Arabian perception of the threat is closely linked to Irans aspirations to regional hegemony. This perception has not changed with the signing of the agreement, and may have become stronger. Given this development, Saudi Arabia will find it difficult to remain indifferent, including out of considerations of prestige and influence, and will seek a response, even if partial, to the Iranian threat. What is this response likely to consist of? American security guarantees are preferable. However, even if the United States provides security guarantees to Saudi Arabia which it has thus far refrained from doing it is doubtful whether the kingdom will regard that as sufficient. Promotion of a nuclear- free region is also a possibility under consideration by Riyadh. In this context, the agreement with Iran is liable to put Israels nuclear program on the agenda, according to the logic, If Iran, why not Israel? The kingdoms concern that in certain scenarios it is liable to find itself on its own facing a stronger Iran may lead it to a situation in which it will have nuclear options available. More than any other player in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has a strategic motive and the economic capability to do this. Underlying current Saudi policy is that its right to enrich uranium should be recognized, just as Tehran has gained this right. Development of a nuclear program centering on the ability to enrich uranium is a long term option for Saudi Arabia, due to the absence of a knowledge infrastructure and suitable facilities in the kingdom. From Riyadhs point of view, however, the agreement with Iran gives it ten years of Iranian nuclear restraint, and in this time framework, the kingdom will be able to choose various possibilities in the nuclear realm allowed by the NPT. In order to develop a civilian nuclear program in the long term, the kingdom will likely seek to develop a network with a number of countries, including Pakistan, with which the kingdom has close defense relations. Differences have emerged recently between Riyadh and Islamabad regarding the war in Yemen, but if Pakistan becomes convinced that its ally which not only financed a large part of its nuclear program but provides the country with significant economic aid is in need of its long term assistance for an enrichment facility on the kingdoms territory, it will be willing to furnish this

7. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 7The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 7 of 14 02/08/2015 assistance, even if unofficially. Because the process of building an independent nuclear capability is prolonged and demanding, the kingdom must find a medium term response to cope with the challenge posed by Irans nuclear status. Another possible scenario is that at Saudi Arabias request, Pakistan will station nuclear warheads under its control on Saudi Arabian territory as a form of extended deterrence, if Iran openly breaks out to a bomb. And even if Saudi Arabias path to nuclear capability is not guaranteed, its very presence in the arms race is liable to set in motion various processes with negative consequences for regional stability in general, and for Israel in particular. Events in the Arabian Peninsula are not covered sufficiently by Israel, which naturally devotes most of its efforts to the Iranian threat. Israel should thus improve its intelligence gathering and assessment capability in the Gulf theater, in order among other interests to spot attempts by additional countries to create a "nuclear balance" with Iran. July 22, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6112 Saudi Press: We Must Have A Military Nuclear Program Within A Decade Following the July 14, 2015 announcement in Vienna of the Iran-P5+1 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Saudi press featured numerous articles openly calling for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to use the coming decade the time frame of the JCPOA to develop their own military nuclear program, against the nuclear threat that they say Iran will constitute after the agreement expires. There have already been calls for a clandestine Saudi nuclear program to parallel Iran's, which were backed up by official Saudi sources. For example, the month before the announcement of the JCPOA, Saudi Ambassador to the U.K. Emir Muhammad bin Nawwaf bin 'Abd Al-'Aziz Al-Saud told the Daily Telegraph that if the upcoming nuclear agreement with Iran did not include a serious Iranian commitment to refrain from developing nuclear weapons, then as far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, "all options are on the table." He emphasized that over the years, his country had opposed the development of nuclear weapons, but that Iran's policy on the issue "has changed the whole outlook in the region."[1] Emir Turki Al-Faisal, former Saudi intelligence chief and Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., made similar statements, on a number of occasions. In April 2014, at a security conference in Bahrain, Al-Faisal called on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to acquire nuclear knowledge to deal with the Iranian danger.[2] The previous year, at the 2013 Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference, he threatened that if Iran developed nuclear weapons, the GCC would consider acquiring its own "nuclear deterrent."[3] Alongside these statements by Saudi officials, there have been various reports in media worldwide on Saudi intentions to establish a military nuclear program,[4] or to acquire nuclear weapons from a third party, meaning Pakistan.[5] In addition, Saudi Arabia has recently taken practical steps to develop a civilian nuclear program. In recent months it has signed nuclear agreements with France,[6] Russia,[7]and South Korea,[8] which include the establishment of civilian nuclear reactors in the kingdom.[9] Following are excerpts from articles in the Saudi press calling for the establishment of a Saudi nuclear program: No Alternative To Nuclear Arms Race Dr. Hashem 'Abdu Hashem, columnist for the official Saudi daily Al-Riyadh, called on the Gulf states and Arab countries to work on two fronts the military front, that is, immediately launching a nuclear arms race, and the diplomatic front, that is, beginning a dialogue with the superpowers and taking advantage of the prevailing atmosphere of economic interests overriding security interests. In his column, titled "There Is No Alternative To The Option Of A Nuclear Arms Race," he wrote: "... The situation is dangerous very dangerous and the need to operate on all levels is increasing. There is a need for direct and transparent dialogue with the P5+1 and for working to bolster our self [defense] capabilities as a country, as a single Gulf entity, and as a homogenous Arab group that senses the

8. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 8The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 8 of 14 02/08/2015 same threat, thinks alike, and seeks the best guarantees for stability in its lands and for dealing jointly with this new reality. "Just as Iran has opened the [nuclear] door wide, we must not delay in breaking [the nuclear door] down, with all necessary speed. We must benefit from the [current] international willingness to prioritize economic interests above existing security issues. "We are facing a new reality, with no room for tiptoeing around the arms race issue. The countries of the region must confer on how best to cooperate and coordinate on this vital issue, now that it has become the preferred option. "I do not know if such a move will benefit our countries and peoples, but I do know that hesitating or delaying will do us no good. Additionally, such an agreement requires the countries of the region to act to achieve a balance in our relations with all countries of the world, in accordance with the scope of our interests with each country..."[10] Saudi flag superimposed over image of nuclear reactor (Source: Annabaa.org, July 6, 2015) We Must Establish Arab Nuclear Reactors To Create A Balance Of Power With Iran And Israel In a similar vein, in his column in the official Saudi daily Al-Jazirah, Jasser 'Abd Al-'Aziz Al-Jasser wrote, under the headline "So We Don't Fall Victim To The Nuclear Deception": "... A decade from now, Iran will be able to manufacture nuclear weapons... It has the knowhow, which will surely develop in the coming decade, in addition to amassing thousands of tons of enriched uranium which will facilitate Iran's production of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the countries of the region, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, must prepare for that day, and work to create a scientific base and a nuclear [facility] infrastructure by establishing research reactors for producing energy, that can serve the region's countries [in their efforts] to attain a nuclear balance [of power] with Iran or with Israel. Otherwise, only Arab countries will be targets for extortion, by both Iran and Israel."[11] Saudi academic 'Abd Al-'Aziz Al-Tuwaijri wrote in the London-based Saudi daily Al-Hayat: "... Today we are on the threshold of a new crisis that requires the Arab countries, and the other members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation [OIC], to take the necessary actions to deal with this dangerous challenge, and strengthen and expand the [Saudi-led] Arab coalition [operating in Yemen] to meet this challenge with strength and determination... We have entered a new phase of dangerous challenges... There is no escape from taking the initiative and establishing nuclear programs that are similar to the one agreed upon between the superpowers (the P5+1) and Iran, and under the same conditions, and [there is also no escape] from bearing all expected and unexpected consequences [of establishing these programs], in order to preserve [the Arab] lands and to defend their existence and security."[12] Saudi Arabia Must Develop A Secret Nuclear Program So That It Can Produce Nuclear Weapons In 10 Years Al-Jazirah columnist Khaled Ibrahim Al-Hajji set out the steps that he says Saudi Arabia must take to develop a nuclear program in the coming decade: "... Training Saudi personnel in the field of nuclear energy that will produce results, as part of a known timetable [concurrent with] the term of the Iranian nuclear agreement; recruiting outstanding Saudi students for this program, along with a special staff and financial benefits in line with their scientific capabilities; establishing nuclear energy Research and Development [R&D] centers within the timeframe of the Iranian nuclear agreement; conducting clandestine scientific research in absolute secrecy to preserve national security; and recruiting nuclear physicists and scientists from around the world to work in Saudi Arabia in return for special benefits, and granting Saudi citizenship to those who desire it. The Saudi nuclear program will be ready to develop and produce nuclear weapons that will deter Iran's nuclear program once its agreement with

9. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 9The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 9 of 14 02/08/2015 the superpowers expires..." Al-Hajji concluded his piece by stating: "The timeframe of the Iranian nuclear agreement should be long enough for us to build a Saudi nuclear program that will serve as a deterrent to the Iranian nuclear program."[13] Endnotes: [1] Daily Telegraph (UK), June 8, 2015. [2] Newnews.com.pk, April 24, 2014. [3] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5502, Former Saudi Ambassador To Washington Turki Al- Faisal: If Iran Acquires Nuclear Weapons, The GCC Should Consider Acquiring A 'Nuclear Deterrent' Of Its Own; 'The Shameful Way That The World Community Accepts The Impunity Of The Butcher Of Syria Is A Blot On The Conscience Of The World', October 28, 2013. [4] The pro-resistance axis Lebanese daily Al-Safir reported that the Gulf states had made a strategic decision to use the coming decade for a nuclear and ballistic missile arms race, which received American approval at the May 2015 Camp David summit. According to the report, Saudi Arabia has devoted $60 billion to the program, which would make it a nuclear power by 2025. Al-Safir (Lebanon), July 7, 2015. [5] An American official told the British Sunday Times that Saudi Arabia has decided to acquire readymade nukes from Pakistan. Sundaytimes.co.uk, May 17, 2015. The BBC reported that Saudi Arabia provided financial support for the Pakistani nuclear program with the aim of purchasing nuclear weapons in the future. BBC.com, November 6, 2013. The World Tribune reported that Saudi Arabia sent money to Pakistan for the purchase of nuclear missiles, which would be delivered once Iran possesses the same capability. Worldtribune.com, November 13, 2013. [6] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), June 24, 2015. [7] Al-Watan (Saudi Arabia), June 19, 2015. [8] Al-Hayat (London), March 4, 2015. [9] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), June 24, 2015. [10] Al-Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), July 18, 2015. [11] Al-Jazirah (Saudi Arabia), July 20, 2015. [12] Al-Hayat (London), July 20, 2015. [13] Al-Jazirah (Saudi Arabia), July 20, 2015. July 31, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6121 Pakistani Urdu Daily Warns Against Nuclear Arms Race In South Asia: 'The Danger Of A Nuclear War In The Most Populated Region Of The World Should Be Worrying For The World Powers' The following report is a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here. Pakistan's widely circulated Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Islam, known for its support of militant organizations in Pakistan and Afghanistan, has raised concerns over the nuclear arms race in South Asia. In a column titled "Indian War Obsession And Regional Peace," Rana Zahid Iqbal warns of the risk of a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. Iqbal argues that India, by importing large quantities of weapons, wants to establish its hegemony in the South Asian region, which he says can trigger nuclear war between Pakistan and India. In this context, Iqbal recalls the horrors of the use of nuclear weapons by the U.S. during World War II. Roznama Islam, which was launched in the early 1990s, is now published in seven Pakistani cities: Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Multan, Quetta and Muzaffarabad (Pakistani Kashmir).

10. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 10The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 10 of 14 02/08/2015 A screen grab of the translated article Following are excerpts from Rana Zahid Iqbal's article: "Increased Tension On The Line of Control Can Create A Situation Of War Between Two Nuclear Powers" "The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute has said that from 2010 to 2014, India bought 140% more weapons than in the past. In this way, India has become the biggest [global] importer of weapons. According to the Stockholm report, India's share in global weapons imports is 15%, whereas during the same period, China's weapon imports declined by 42%. India's imports of weapons, fighter jets, naval ships and missiles are at the top of the list. "With such an increase in its defense budget, India has hinted at promoting its crazy game of expansionism, which will not only endanger other countries in the region but will also endanger its own integrity and the lives of people, animals, and birds in the region. Because of India's defense spending and accumulation of modern and conventional weapons, and its plan to set up weapons- manufacturing facilities in the country [as part of its new 'Make in India' policy] with American support, regional peace and security are facing grave dangers. "[India's Narendra] Modi government, in line with its electoral manifesto and agenda, has adopted the policy of not allowing Pakistan to live in peace, by initiating unprovoked firing and shelling on the Line of Control [or LoC, dividing Kashmir between India and Pakistan], which has taken the tension between Pakistan and India to extreme levels and exposed India's designs against Pakistan's integrity. Increased tension on the Line of Control can create a situation of war between the two nuclear powers. "The world powers should be worried, because by entering into agreements with [India] for modern weapons and nuclear technology, they are becoming a reason for its increased frenzy. Surely this is a question of the planet earth's survival; because of India's obsession, regional and international security has been endangered. The American Congress has been told that India, in the event of a self-inflicted terrorist attack [implicating Pakistan], can mount a large-scale attack on Pakistan, and in response to an Indian army operation, Pakistan can use atomic weapons, which will destabilize South Asian peace. The danger of a nuclear war in the most populated region of the world should be worrying for the world powers." "Now, Pakistan And Hindustan [India] Have Bombs That Are 100 Times More Powerful Than The Ones Dropped By America" "The world saw a glimpse of the destruction that nuclear weapons can cause in Japan's two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, during World War II. On the 6th and 9th of August, 1947 [sic], bombs dropped by America caused severe earthquake jolts and vibrations of 16,000 kilometers per hour... After the atomic explosions, buildings, trees, animals, birds, vehicles, machines, railway lines all were burned to ashes. After the explosions, extreme radiation emission travelled across a radius of many kilometers, and every type of food and water became poisonous... "Those were old atomic bombs. Now, Pakistan and Hindustan [India] have bombs that are 100 times more powerful than the ones dropped by America, and have missiles capable of carrying atomic warheads which will bring such destruction at the press of a button that 150 million people will die in 15 minutes. The ozone layer will be badly affected, and a majority of those surviving a nuclear war will suffer from cancer and other fatal diseases. "Not only will the [Indian] Subcontinent be affected, but the whole world will have to face atomic radiation. Therefore, Pakistan and India's prosperity, development, peace and stability depend on a peaceful solution of bilateral disputes through negotiation, not through an arms race. But India, by

11. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 11The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 11 of 14 02/08/2015 increasing its budget for war preparations, has heightened the apprehensions of its neighbors, especially Pakistan. Its Jammu and Kashmir dispute with Pakistan is still unresolved, and has resulted in four large-scale wars. And even this time, frenzied Indian ministers are busy talking nonsense against Pakistan. "The interest of some two billion people in the Subcontinent is not served by increasing the craze for war; rather it is served by taking measures for progress and development. Since India is the world's third-largest military power, it needs to desist from the arms race and spend its resources on eliminating poverty. "From the beginning, India has desired to become an atomic superpower in the region that can wave its flag of might over China, Pakistan, and all other small countries in the region, as well as over the Gulf states. Obviously, this objective cannot be achieved until India's rulers equip their army with latest and most lethal weapons." Source: Roznama Islam (Pakistan), May 29, 2015. July 31, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6120 Urdu Weekly Celebrates Pakistan's 1998 Nuclear Tests: 'Pakistan Conducted Atomic Explosions, Grinding The Indian Military Arrogance Into Dust; A New History Of Islamic Jihad Was Recorded' The following report is a complimentary offering from MEMRI's Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor (JTTM). For JTTM subscription information, click here. In an article celebrating the anniversary of the May 28, 1998 Pakistani nuclear tests, Pakistan's leading jihadi weekly Haftroza Zarb-e-Momin ("Strike of the Faithful Muslim") argued that Pakistan had marked a new moment in the history of Islamic jihad by detonating five atom bombs in the Chaghi mountains of Pakistan's Baluchistan province. Haftroza Zarb-e-Momin, which is published in Karachi, claimed that after Israeli jets had successfully destroyed the Iraqi nuclear plant in 1981, India, with the cooperation of Israel, planned to destroy the nuclear plant at Kahuta, Pakistan. The article, "The Message of May 28," by Maulana Mohammad Ismail Rehan, pays glowing tributes to Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the architect of Pakistan's nuclear program, for making Pakistan's defense impregnable. The jihadi magazine, which was first published in the early 1990s, by the Al-Qaeda-linked charity Al- Rasheed Trust, and openly supports jihadi organizations in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Initially, the magazine was only sold outside mosques after weekly Friday prayers, but now it is freely available in towns across Pakistan. Page from Haftroza Zarb-e-Momin Following is the text of the article, as translated from Urdu: "The Designs Of The Enemies Of Islam Against Pakistan Turned Into Dust [After The Nuclear Tests]"; "Pakistan Is A Gift From Allah, And Readiness For Jihad Is The Way To Protect It" "On May 28 [1998], Pakistan conducted atomic explosions, grinding the Indian military arrogance into dust. A new history of Islamic jihad was recorded in the Chaghi Mountains [of Baluchistan province]. The designs of the enemies of Islam against God's state of Pakistan turned into dust. "Readers! Pakistan is a gift from Allah, and readiness for jihad is the way to protect it. We received this country... when the Christian powers were leaving South Asia. Idol-worshiping politicians wanted to bring back the rule and title of Ashoka [who ruled from 269-232 BCE]. They wanted to bring back their [ancient] idolatrous culture, from Taxila statues to Bamiyan idols [Buddhas] which were

12. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 12The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 12 of 14 02/08/2015 annihilated by Islam. "The Englishman was forced to divide India, in the awe of the movement of freedom for the Muslims of the [Indian] Subcontinent, but he did his best [to ensure] that the Muslims got an imperfect, weak, and powerless state. Injustice was done to us with regard to borders; [we] were deprived of Eastern Punjab under a conspiracy. The highway to Kashmir was handed over to Bharat [India]. Then, in collusion with the [Hindu] Maharaja of Kashmir, [the Indian] army infiltrated into Kashmir. By rejecting [the Muslim-ruled princely states] Hyderabad Deccan's and Junagarh's joining with Pakistan, those [states] were usurped [into India]. "The border with Lahore was narrowed, so that Pakistan's second biggest city remains in danger of sudden Indian army attack. Pakistan was given a very small army, defective ammunition, and very little equipment. With regard to funds, it was given a meager sum. Hindu businessmen in Karachi moved to India and withdrew their wealth. [India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal] Nehru, said, in a very angry tone: 'Give Jinnah his Pakistan. Tomorrow he will say...: Take this Pakistan from me.' "So Pakistan [started] from bankruptcy. Offices lacked basic stationery items like paper and pens, let alone typewriters. But the Muslims of the Subcontinent are a lively nation. Mumbai's Muslim traders opened their money boxes. By donating tens of millions of rupees, they filled in the foundations of a newly created state. Pakistan was established. The issue of settling five million refugees was also solved by the nation, through extraordinary sacrifices. "But Pakistan's freedom and sovereignty was not acceptable to Indian leaders. In 1965, they attacked the Pakistani border from many fronts. Together, our valiant army and honorable people fought the war and secured an historic victory." "After The Israeli Jets' 1981 Destruction Of The Iraqi Nuclear Plant, India, In Collaboration With Israel, Set Its Mind To Destroying [Pakistan's] Kahuta Plant" "In 1971, by raising the issue of nationality, Muslims were divided. As a result, India separated East Pakistan [now Bangladesh] from Pakistan. One arm was broken, but the nation learned a new lesson from this injury. "One young Pakistani scientist, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, vowed to make Pakistan's borders safe forever from Indian aggression. [He] left the convenient and attractive life of Europe, kicked away benefits and a big salary, came to Pakistan, and persuaded Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to make an atomic bomb. "At first, Bhutto did not believe that he would be able to do this job, but Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan had a different scheme in mind, according to which the goal [of securing an atom bomb] could be achieved by spending less. At last, the Kahuta atomic research plant was built. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, with full courage and dedication, began work. He looked after the scientists and technicians working under him as if they were his own children. As a result of the team's daily hard work, Pakistan succeeded in making an atom bomb in the 1980s, when General Ziaul Haq was in government [as military dictator of Pakistan]. Work continued to develop and secure this technology. "India got a sense of it. After the Israeli jets' 1981 destruction of the Iraqi nuclear plant, India, in collaboration with Israel, set its mind to destroying the Kahuta plant. But the enemy's plans could not succeed, because of our top military leadership and scientists' good planning. The atom bomb was ready, but to demonstrate its capability, there were certain practicalities in the way. The Western world had already started making noise, by naming it an Islamic bomb. "In 1998, India, in order to overawe Pakistan, showed its power by carrying out atomic explosions. At that time, it was the second tenure of the Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif government. Ignoring foreign pressure, he [Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif] gave the go-ahead for the [Pakistani] atomic explosions. Then, on May 28, the first atomic explosion in Islamic history took place, in the Chaghi Mountains. Dew fell on the Western world's wishes." "When Paradise Is Promised For Making One Spear, [Imagine] What Will Be The Status Of Those Who Were Part Of Making The [Pakistani] Atom Bomb "

13. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 13The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 13 of 14 02/08/2015 "On that day [May 28, 1998], the command of Allah regarding jihad was fulfilled. In Chapter Al-Anfal, Verse 60, the Koran says clearly: 'Remain prepared to fight them with as much as power you have, through supply of power and through well-fed horses... you frighten your enemies and the enemies of Allah.' On that day, this Hadith [from the book of Hadiths called] Muslim Sharif was acted upon; in it, it is said: 'You make yourself as powerful as you can.' [The Hadith says:] 'Listen! Power means spear-throwing; listen, power means spear-throwing; listen, power means spear- throwing.' "In [a Hadith from the book of Hadiths called] Abu Dawood, the Prophet [Muhammad] said: 'Sure, Allah will allow three persons in Paradise for one spear one for making it...; the second who throws it; and the third who takes it from quiver and hands it to the thrower.' When Paradise is promised for making one spear, [imagine] what will be the status of those who were part of making the [Pakistani] atom bomb. "What will be the status of its inventor Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan? May 28 reminds us to be ready to defend this country, rising above personal desires and interests and remaining ready to defend our homeland, and to keep frustrating the enemy's plans, as desired by Allah and required by the time." Source: Haftroza Zarb-e-Momin, (Pakistan), May 29-June 4, 2015. Aug 02, 2015 Iranian Military Facing Increasing Public Demands for Ballistic Missile Drill TEHRAN (FNA)- An increasing number of Iranians are demanding the country's armed forces to stage a ballistic missile drill after the Iranian and American negotiators presented different interpretations on a paragraph of an annex to the UNSC Resolution 2231. Students of 9 universities in Tehran in a letter to Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi on Sunday demanded him to arrange a set of exercises to fire home-made mid and long-range ballistic missiles. Also in a separate statement on Saturday, students at the Islamic seminary in the holy city of Qom, referred to the paragraph in the UNSC resolution annex which calls for curbing Iran's ballistic missile capability, and underlined the necessity for protecting the country's defense capabilities and ensuring continued development of Iran's ballistic missile capability. The students told Firouzabadi that firing ballistic missiles in military drills would discourage the US Congress, the Israeli Knesset and their regional Takfiri mercenaries from future strikes against the Islamic Republic. The UNSC unanimously endorsed a draft resolution turning into international law the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached between Iran and the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China Britain and France plus Germany) over the Islamic Republics nuclear program in July. The paragraph in the annex of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 says, "Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology, until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier." Iran says it has not accepted or endorsed the annex, adding that none of its ballistic missiles has been designed to carry nuclear payloads, and thus, its ballistic missile program is no way related to the paragraph. The US State Secretary and his team argue to the opposite. Yet, both accept that the paragraph is non-binding as it demands and does not order. Minutes the approval of the UN Security Council resolution, the Iranian Foreign Ministry in a

14. Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence 14The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill Cees de waart: Intel to Rent Page 14 of 14 02/08/2015 statement ensured that the country's ballistic missile program and capability is untouched and unrestricted by Resolution 2231. The Iranian foreign ministry issued a rather lengthy statement, where it stressed Tehran's resolve to contribute an active role in war on terrorism and promotion of peace and stability in the region. The statement ensured that "Iran will continue its pioneering role in campaign against terrorism and violent extremism", including its cooperation with the neighboring states. "In addition, the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue making the necessary arrangements and plans to reinvigorate its defensive capabilities to protect its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity against any kind of aggression as well as its confrontation with the threat of terrorism in the region," it added. "Within this framework, Iran's military capabilities, including its ballistic missiles, are exclusively for legitimate defense; these equipment have not been designed for the capability to carry nuclear payloads and thus, fall outside the scope and the jurisdiction of the UNSC resolution and its annexes," the Iranian foreign ministry statement stressed. All 15 members of the UNSC voted for the draft UN resolution in New York on July 20, setting the stage for the lifting of Security Council sanctions against Iran. The text of the draft UN resolution calls for the full implementation of the Vienna agreement on the timetable established, and urges UN member countries to facilitate the process.

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Saudi Arabia-3

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