Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 17-63-The Deep Battle against the West

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 17-63-The Deep Battle against the West

The Paris attacks took France by surprise even following the attacks in Egypt and Lebanon, and prior, the attack on Charlie Hebdo.

The problem lies in the political interference with intelligence analysis. Too often as analysis percolates up through the bureaucracy it is changed or watered down.

The Belgian prime minister has suggested Europe needs a central intelligence agency to reinforce and coordinate its anti-terrorist operations.

Charles Michel says the search for the Paris attack suspects has highlighted the failure of European secret services to share information.

Shabaab Approves of Paris and Bamako Attacks, Calls for Attacks on Jewish and Western Interests-i Dec01 - SITE Intelligence The Shabaab al-Mujahideen Movement, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, issued a statement approving of the attacks in Paris and Bamako, while also calling for attacks on Jewish and Western interests, domestically and internationally.

'UNPRECEDENTED': New report paints a worrisome picture of ISIS in AmericaA new report ii out Tuesday Dec 01, paints a bleak picture of ISIS infiltration in the US.Researchers at the Center for Cyber and Homeland Security at George Washington University investigated the presence of American ISIS supporters on social media and found that "ISIS-related mobilization in the United States has been unprecedented."US authorities are reportedly aware of 250 Americans who have attempted to travel to Islamic State territory — some successfully, others not — in Syria and Iraq. And there are 900 active investigations against ISIS supporters in all 50 states, according to the report.Most ISIS sympathizers the center found are young — the average age is 26 — and 86% are male. More than half attempted to travel abroad, and 27% were involved in plots to carry out attacks in the US. Many were American-born and had no prior history of radical views.

Though much radicalization occurs online, the center also found evidence of face-to-face meetings of groups of like-minded people. About 40% of people studied were converts to Islam.

One person profiled in the report, a teenager named Nader Saadeh, lived in New Jersey and had a hand in radicalizing Munther Omar Saleh, another teenager from Queens, New York. He then pulled three others into his orbit, including his older brother, and the group started sharing ISIS propaganda.

The group planned to join ISIS until Saadeh was arrested by Jordanian authorities after traveling to Amman. The FBI arrested the remaining four of Saadeh's associates in the New York area.

There are also "keyboard warriors" who disseminate ISIS propaganda on Twitter and other social-media platforms while still living in the US. The report provides examples of the content on some of these accounts:

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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Center for Cyber and Homeland SecurityMaking the fight against ISIS even more difficult for American authorities is the fact that ISIS sympathizers in the US don't have a common profile. "Ranging from grown men who had flirted with jihadist militancy for over a decade to teenagers who have only recently converted to Islam, from the son of a Boston area police officer to a single mother of two young children, these individuals differ widely in race, age, social class, education, and family background," the report said. "Individuals with such diverse backgrounds are unlikely to be motivated by the same factors."

There is, however, one catalyst in particular that researchers found is common among many of those who become radicalized: the Syrian civil war.

The report said: In many cases examined by our research team, an underlying sense of





sympathy and compassion appeared to play an important role in initially motivating young Americans to become interested and invested in the Syrian conflict. Many were outraged by the appalling violence Bashar al Assad’s regime used to suppress the Syrian rebellion and the subsequent inaction on the part of the international community. Pictures and videos capturing the aftermath of civilian massacres perpetrated by the regime, displayed widely in both social and mainstream media, rocked the consciences of many—from those with an existing strong Sunni identity to those who were not Muslim—and led some to take the first steps to militancy. This fits with what other experts have said in the past — that atrocities committed by the Syrian regime against its people are one of the main recruiting tools of ISIS.

Arabic graffiti found on passenger jets at French airports 30 Nov, 2015 Arabic graffiti inscriptions, with some reading “Allahu Akbar,” have been discovered in the past weeks on a number of EasyJet flights docked in France, local media reported. Spanish airline Vueling also suffered a similar incident. At least five cases were recorded at the airports in Lyon and at Charles de Gaulle in Paris, according to a police source, La Tribune reported. Investigators believe that that these inscriptions were written before the arrival of the aircraft in France. An inscription reading "Allahu Akbar" was found on the fuel door of an Easyjet aircraft at Charles de Gaulle Airport on November 24, an airport source told the media. The flight had arrived the day before from Budapest, Hungary, and the inscription was erased before any passengers boarded the plane, the source added. The same inscription was also found two days earlier, also on board the British company's plane, written on an access hatch to the cargo hold, while the EasyJet plane was stationed in Lyon. That plane came from Marrakesh, Morocco. Spanish airline Vueling also reported a similar incident in on November 19. Two Arabic inscriptions were discovered on board, prompting evacuation of 157 passengers on board over possible terrorist threat. A source close to the investigation told La Tribune, that the graffiti are "not a phenomenon linked to the attacks" in Paris that killed over 130 people on November 13. It added that this has been happening for months on a number of airlines including EasyJet. The British company, which serves 17 airports in France, acknowledged that a "small number" of graffiti in Arabic had been discovered in the "last two weeks," according to AFP. "Our security team is used to assess any potential threat." These graffiti were not "considered a security problem both by us and by the authorities," company said.

ISIS activities and western intelligence failures By Paul Davis 21/11/2015 The Paris attacks took France by surprise even following the attacks in Egypt and Lebanon, and prior, the attack on Charlie Hebdo. One cause was complacency. The normal intelligence channels where not indicating an attack so it was business as usual. Regardless of all else the myth of an ever seeing eye from any intelligence agency is broke. The problem lies in the political interference with intelligence analysis. Too often as analysis percolates up through the bureaucracy it is changed or watered down. This may have occurred in France. Following the attack in August on a train traveling between Belgium and France, the bombing of a Russian airliner and the attack in Beirut there were sufficient indicators that ISIS was moving out of Syria and Iraq to attack its enemy’s in their homes. The recent attack will soon be called a failure of intelligence, and it may turn out to be so. While we are still waiting for all the information, and not all will be forthcoming to the public, I wanted to give an analysis of the problem of predicting these types of attacks under normal circumstances. There are two types of analysis that are used by nations, Political/Military and Criminal. There are of course subdivisions but all contain much the





same techniques. Modern intelligence agencies have become reliant on collecting information

electronically which has the advantage of being able to sweep a broad swath of information bases such as cell phone and social media. The targets of these sweeps however have gotten a lot smarter about how to avoid detection. The alternative to electronic surveillance is human intelligence (HUMINT), getting information from the people involved or in the know.

With a closed society such as ISIS and no expectation of living through the event, communications are reduced and no plans are made for the “getaway.” What information that is gleaned is vague and gives a rough approximation of what may be planned. There may be discussions of an attack on a target in France but no date, time or location. Additionally intelligence agencies’ ability to clandestinely collect information has been greatly harmed by the revelations of Edward Snowden and the Wikileaks by reviling some of the ways these agencies collect information. This last has prompted governments to curtail their own countries abilities to detect and protect.

The west does not do HUMINT well, this is especially true when it comes to a closed society such as ISIS. Additionally national intelligence agencies are very insular and share information reluctantly.

There is now a major problem intelligence agencies are facing, the blending of military and police activities. The military is most interested in predicting an action, while law enforcement would like to predict crime, it is most interested in solving crime.

Applying law enforcement methods the French police were able to track down the leader of the attacks and stopped possible future action by this cell. But it was only after the fact. If you know which phone to look for or track it becomes easy. But this is not predictive intelligence that will stop future activities.

Applying standard analytic techniques to organizations such as ISIS comes down to the end state ISIS wants, and what they do to achieve it.

ISIS follows a world view that goes beyond radical Islam. Al-Qaida, among others, has a plan and a strategy and has advised the world what they want, western influence out of the region and the instillation of their version of Islam as a form of government. ISIS on the other hand has a much shorter outlook, reestablish the Caliphate and prepare for the Mahdi and the fight for the end of days. This type of apocalyptic outlook makes it very difficult to do any true analytic prediction. To prevent future activities western intelligence must understand that the people closest to the problem have the best understanding and access to information. In the case of ISIS this is likely to be the Kurds and Sunni tribes in both Iraq and Syria. This will once again call on the United States and others to do what they do not want to do, closely engage the Kurds and the Sunni tribes on terms other then what suits them. For what can be derived from electronic intercepts western countries will need to reevaluate knee jerk reactions that blinded the intelligence community to what could be seen. Western nations will also need to adjust their counterterrorism philosophies to accept that ISIS is playing a short game and most of the wests tactics are designed for the long game. Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.




i Original Article: https://news.siteintelgroup.com/Jihadist-News/shabaab-approves-of-paris-and-bamako-attacks-calls-for-attacks-on-jewish-and-western-interests.htmlii http://cchs.gwu.edu/isis-in-america

http://cchs.gwu.edu/isis-in-america

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 17-63-The Deep Battle against the West

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