Airport of the Future Public Policy View Hans Mohrmann March 30th, 2006 5th International Seminar on Airport Planning.

Airport of the Future

Public Policy View

Hans Mohrmann

March 30th, 2006

5th International Seminar on Airport Planning

Rank Country Population GDP/capita GDP

1 United States 296 $41,800 $12,361,686,801,200

2 European Union 457 $25,000 $11,423,831,450,000

3 China 1,306 $6,200 $8,099,145,634,400

4 Japan 127 $30,400 $3,873,484,217,600

5 India 1,080 $3,400 $3,672,898,919,200

6 Germany 82 $29,700 $2,448,212,283,000

7 United Kingdom 60 $30,900 $1,867,641,021,300

8 France 61 $29,900 $1,813,619,722,200

9 Italy 58 $28,300 $1,644,315,833,900

10 Brazil 186 $8,500 $1,581,958,749,000

11 Russia 143 $10,700 $1,534,597,306,300

12 Canada 33 $32,800 $1,076,005,344,800

13 Mexico 106 $10,000 $1,062,029,030,000

14 Spain 40 $25,100 $1,012,570,696,200

15 Korea, South 49 $20,300 $987,405,621,300

16 Indonesia 242 $3,700 $895,303,352,300

17 Australia 20 $32,000 $642,893,984,000

18 Taiwan 23 $26,700 $611,280,052,800

19 Iran 68 $8,100 $550,944,666,000

20 Turkey 70 $7,900 $550,318,416,100

21 Argentina 40 $13,600 $537,716,024,800

22 Thailand 64 $8,300 $532,739,666,600

23 South Africa 44 $11,900 $527,695,218,400

24 Netherlands 16 $30,500 $500,428,475,500

25 Poland 39 $12,700 $489,686,396,800

Ongoing Urbanization 80%

RankPopulation of city (proper)

Population of metropolitan

area

Percentage foreign born [4]

Cost of living [5]

Metro systems by annual passenger ridership

Airports by annual

passenger traffic

Number of skyscrapers

[6]

Number of billionaires [7]

1 Shanghai Tokyo Miami Tokyo Moscow Atlanta Hong Kong London

2 Mumbai Mexico City Toronto Osaka Tokyo Chicago New York CityNew York City

3 Karachi New York City Los Angeles London Paris London Singapore Moscow

4 Buenos Aires Mumbai Vancouver Moscow Seoul Tokyo São Paulo Geneva

5 Delhi Sao Paulo New York City Seoul Mexico City Los Angeles Seoul Los Angeles

6 Manila Delhi Singapore Geneva New York City Dallas Tokyo Hong Kong

7 Moscow Calcutta Sydney Zürich Osaka Paris IstanbulSan Francisco

8 Seoul Buenos Aires Abidjan Copenhagen London Frankfurt Rio de Janeiro Paris

9 São Paulo Jakarta London Hong Kong Hong Kong Philadelphia Toronto Tokyo

10 Istanbul Shanghai Paris Oslo St.Petersburg Las Vegas Buenos Aires Chicago

Urban Metropolis Nodes - Global City Regions (*) …

Source Mercer

Source Expedia

(*) Prof. Gerlach Cerfontaine

EU / NL Population Growth 1993 - 2005

Source: Eurostat

NL Slow Down?

EU Acceleration?

Netherlands: + 3,5%

Poland : +3%

Aging Population 1993 – 2005

Hungary

Bulgaria

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Source: Eurostat

“New” Europe Population Growth 2000 -2005

Ongoing Urbanization in the Netherlands 1999–2004

5 % occurred within the existing urban footprint; 95 % occurred by enlargement.

Growth occurred in Urban aera’s of s Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland

In Limburg 1999- 2004 experienced an absolute decrease in population

Location: Closer to work ?

Preferred Mode: Car Work Distance: 20 KM

Prof. Gaudry Univ. Montreal quote French stats: constant 30 minute travel time since 1800

Average Commute: 30 minutes

Airport Centreof

Delta Metropolis

Evolution of a transportation facility:Grand Central New York

• Grand Central at the edge of the city • GC earned revenues by selling Air Rights to developers

• Beginning: facilitating traffic / passengers• Today: a social meeting place, shops, restaurants, bars….and transportation

Evolution of a transportation facility:Grand Central New York

Evolution of a transportation facility:Another Railway Station? (IV)

Concentrating in larger Metropolis

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ACI 2004

ACI 1994

Mil

lio

n A

nn

ual

Pas

sen

ger

s

Average growth: 18,5 MAP

Average growth: 3,6 MAP Average growth:

1,2 MAP

Maximize Value under Urban Tsunami

Infra Driven Value Driven

“Gated Community” & virtual security

Landside Airside

TerminalCurrent situation:

Pax area

Pax area

Virtual and physical Security Fence

Landside Airside

Terminal

“Gated Community”

People area

physical Security FenceVirtual

Security Fence

A new Airport Definition:

a high mobility & 24 h services placea social meeting & gathering placea gated communitya prime AAA+ locationa Living City.

Great Skies!My Penthouse has an Airport…

Yours? Ah, I see …an old one with a Golf Course!

Great Skies!My Penthouse has an Airport…

Yours? Ah, I see …an old one with a Golf Course!

Elzenhof Park City ?

Conclusions:

1. Urbanization is ongoing in industrialized world2. Global Metropolis are specialized nodes in a global

network of City Regions 3. Urbanization = City Tsunami for airports 4. Role and character airport changes with Global City

Regions integration5. City Integration requires maximization of landside6. Airport bizz models evolve:

Infra => Bizz => Real Estate

Thank You!