Roberts Bank Container Expansion Program RWDI Deltaport Third Berth Project File: w04-127 Air Quality and Human Health Assessment - i - January 2005 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Vancouver Port Authority (VPA) is proposing to expand its existing Roberts Bank Port facility located in Delta, British Columbia by adding a third berth to the existing Deltaport Container Terminal. This section of the environmental assessment for the Deltaport Third Berth Project (the Project) examines existing air quality and human health in the Project area, and predicts future air quality and human health impacts associated with emissions from the proposed Project and from other sources in the general region. The local study area (LSA) was defined as a 30 km by 30 km area that includes the communities of Tsawwassen, Tsawwassen First Nation, Ladner, Boundary Bay/Maple Beach, Beach Grove, Steveston (City of Richmond), and Point Roberts (US). The regional study area (RSA) was defined as the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) including the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) and Whatcom County in Washington State, US. It is anticipated that construction of the Deltaport Third Berth will commence in spring 2006, that the Third Berth will be operational in 2008 and will reach full capacity by 2012. The expected life of the project is greater than 100 years. As future shipping data were provided for 2011, this year was selected for the Cumulative Effects Assessment, which is based on the assumption that the Third Berth is at full capacity. The following scenarios were used to assess the effects of the Project on ambient air quality and human health. Underlying assumptions for these scenarios are provided in Table S-1. • Existing Baseline: defined by emissions from existing sources in the LSA for the year 2003. • Project Construction: defined by emissions from construction operations at their peak in 2006. • Project Operation: defined by emissions from the Project operating at full capacity in 2011. • Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA): defined by emissions from the Project operating at full capacity in addition to emissions from existing, approved and proposed sources in the LSA projected for the year 2011 (Projected 2011 Baseline). (Note that in the LSA there is no known approved source of air emissions. Known proposed sources in the LSA include
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Roberts Bank Container Expansion Program RWDI Deltaport Third Berth Project File: w04-127 Air Quality and Human Health Assessment - i - January 2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Vancouver Port Authority (VPA) is proposing to expand its existing Roberts Bank Port
facility located in Delta, British Columbia by adding a third berth to the existing Deltaport
Container Terminal. This section of the environmental assessment for the Deltaport Third Berth
Project (the Project) examines existing air quality and human health in the Project area, and
predicts future air quality and human health impacts associated with emissions from the
proposed Project and from other sources in the general region.
The local study area (LSA) was defined as a 30 km by 30 km area that includes the communities
of Tsawwassen, Tsawwassen First Nation, Ladner, Boundary Bay/Maple Beach, Beach Grove,
Steveston (City of Richmond), and Point Roberts (US). The regional study area (RSA) was
defined as the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) including the Greater Vancouver Regional District
(GVRD), Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD) and Whatcom County in Washington State,
US.
It is anticipated that construction of the Deltaport Third Berth will commence in spring 2006,
that the Third Berth will be operational in 2008 and will reach full capacity by 2012. The
expected life of the project is greater than 100 years. As future shipping data were provided for
2011, this year was selected for the Cumulative Effects Assessment, which is based on the
assumption that the Third Berth is at full capacity.
The following scenarios were used to assess the effects of the Project on ambient air quality and
human health. Underlying assumptions for these scenarios are provided in Table S-1.
• Existing Baseline: defined by emissions from existing sources in the LSA for the year 2003.
• Project Construction: defined by emissions from construction operations at their peak in
2006.
• Project Operation: defined by emissions from the Project operating at full capacity in 2011.
• Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA): defined by emissions from the Project operating at
full capacity in addition to emissions from existing, approved and proposed sources in the
LSA projected for the year 2011 (Projected 2011 Baseline). (Note that in the LSA there is no
known approved source of air emissions. Known proposed sources in the LSA include
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Table S-1: Emission Inventory Assumptions of Impact Assessment Scenarios
SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Dockyard Equipment
• List of combustion equipment including rated horsepower, age of equipment and fuel use estimates provided by Terminal Systems Incorporated (TSI)
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • Emission rates estimated using the US EPA NONROAD2004 model
Container Trucks Operating at Terminal
• Average daily traffic levels and gate times provided by TransSYS International Consultants Limited (TSi Consultants)
• Container truck emission factors derived from US EPA MOBILE6.2C model for year 2003 • Daily traffic distribution estimated from 2003 traffic count data on Deltaport Way provided by TSi
• Number, size of vessels, duration of vessel call and fuel use based on the 2003 Port of Call list provided by Chamber of Shipping
• Average percent weight of sulphur in fuel oil estimated from Chamber of Shipping Fuel Use Inventory; marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits
• Operational parameters of tugboats assisting container vessels into berth provided by Batchelor Marine Consulting
• Emission factors estimated using methodology outlined in the 2000 Marine Emission Inventory report prepared by Levelton (2002)
Deltaport
Trains • Train traffic volumes, operation duty cycles, fuel use and idling times based on assumptions reviewed by BC Rail
• Locomotive age distribution assumed fleet age between 1966 to 2001 • Emission factors based on US EPA legislated engine emission standards • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • All trains were assumed to idle for a period of 24 hours at the Terminal
Dockyard Equipment
• List of combustion equipment including rated horsepower, age of equipment and fuel use estimates provided by Westshore
• Other assumptions are the same as for Deltaport Bulk Carrier Vessels (Underway, Maneuvering, Dockside)
• Size of vessels based on the 2003 Port of Call list provided by Chamber of Shipping; ship numbers were conservatively increased to reflect peak capacity year as 2003 vessel calls were lower than average
• Other assumptions the same as for Deltaport Container vessels
Existing Baseline (2003)
Westshore
Trains • Same assumptions as for Deltaport
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SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Fugitive Coal Dust Sources
• Wind erosion of coal dust from coal stockpiles and transfer activities are estimated based on the maximum coal storage capacity and peak coal volume throughput for the terminal
• Threshold friction velocity and surface roughness height of the stockpiled coal were estimated based on typical parameters outlined in AP-42 US EPA methodology
• A control efficiency of 70% was used to account for the automated coal dust suppression system Westshore has in place
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal
Ferry Ships (Cruise, Hotelling)
• Emissions estimated for peak season of 32 sailings a day based on BC Ferries schedule • Emission factors were estimated using methodology outlined in the 2000 Marine Emission Inventory
report prepared by Levelton (2002) • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003
Project Construction (2006)
Project Construction Equipment
• List of construction equipment, rated horsepower and duration of operation of equipment was provided by AMEC
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • Emission rates and fuel use were estimated using the US EPA NONROAD2004 model
Dockyard Equipment
• Additional equipment requirements and fuel consumption based on Draft Project Description and projected increase in TEU traffic
Container Trucks Operating at Terminal
• Project container truck traffic based on average daily traffic provided by TSi Consultants
• Project 2011 vessel size distribution based on the May 17, 2004 Moffat Nichols report • The number of vessel calls was determined from the projected increase in average TEU capacity and the
projected number of vessels for year 2011 presented in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Assessment Study.
• Marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits for 2007 Trains • Project train traffic was based on rail forecast data prepared by Mainline Management (MLM)
Project Operation (2011)
Project
Container Trucks Operating in LSA
• Project container truck traffic was based on forecasts provided by TSi Consultants
Project All Emission Sources
• Same assumptions as Project Operation
Dockyard Equipment
• Equipment replacement rates for Handlers assumed to be every 10 years and for RTG’s every 20 years • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm
Container Trucks operating at Terminal
• Container truck emission factors derived from US EPA MOBILE6.2C model for year 2011
CEA (2011) Deltaport
Container Vessels • Year 2011 vessel size distribution based on the May 17, 2004 Moffat Nichols report
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SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
(Underway, Maneuvering, Dockside)
• The number of vessel calls was determined from the projected increase in average container capacity and the projected number of vessels for year 2011 presented in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Study
• Marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits for 2007
Trains • Locomotive replacement rate based on 25 % of fleet being replaced between 2003 and 2011 (approximate average locomotive engine life of 32 years)
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm Dockyard Equipment
• Equipment replacement rates for earthmoving equipment and portable stationary diesel equipment assumed to be every 15 years
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm Bulk Carrier Vessels (Underway, Maneuvering, Dockside)
• Number of vessel calls based on historic peak capacity indicated in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Assessment Study
Trains • Rail traffic increased by two trains per day arriving and departing over existing baseline 2003 based on information from BC rail
Westshore
Fugitive Coal Dust Sources
• Same as Existing Baseline
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal
Ferry Ships (Cruise, Hotelling)
• Ferry traffic based on maximum peak season of 37 sailings per day
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Deltaport Terminal 2 and the South Fraser Perimeter Road, for which there were three possible
alignments at the time this study was conducted. Since insufficient information was available
for these proposed projects they could not be included in the Projected 2011 Baseline.)
Air Quality Assessment
A standard assessment approach was used to define air quality changes associated with the
specified assessment scenarios. This approach is summarized in Table S-2. The steps in this
approach are:
• Identify and quantify the emission sources for each assessment scenario;
• Review ambient air quality observations to define background air quality;
• Use dispersion models to predict ambient concentrations due to emissions associated with
each assessment scenario;
• Compare the predictions with ambient air quality objectives and standards; and
• Compare scenario results to determine the incremental air quality changes due to the
Project Operation and express them as a percent change.
The CALMET meteorological model was used to predict temporally and spatially dependent
wind, temperature and turbulence fields. The CALMET model simulation was based on year
2003 data from 6 surface stations and soundings from two upper air stations. The surface stations
included stations T13, T17, T18 and T31 from the GVRD monitoring network, the MSC station
at Vancouver International Airport and local wind speed and direction measured at Westshore
Terminals. The two upper air stations included were Port Hardy on Vancouver Island and
Quillayute in Washington State.
A detailed emissions inventory was prepared for each model scenario. The following sources
located within the LSA were included in the emission inventories for Existing Baseline and
shipping lanes, and ferry routes. Emissions were estimated for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen
oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), and total volatile organic
compounds (VOC).
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Table S-2: Summary of Air Quality Assessment Approach
COMPONENT DESCRIPTION
Source Characterization
Characterization of emission sources focuses primarily on identifying combustion sources and estimating their emissions of SO2, NO2, CO, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) and Diesel PM2.5 since emissions of these substances are forecast to increase due to the Project Operation. Combustion source characterization requires information on the source attributes. These include properties such as: area where emissions occur, source height, pollutant emission rates and temporal variation. Source characterization data were produced for the four assessment scenarios as described in Appendix A.
Terrestrial Characterization
Terrain elevations for the nominal 30 km by 30 km LSA were obtained from two digital elevation databases. Data for the Canadian side were obtained from the Canadian Digital Elevation Database (CDED) 1:50000 scale map sheets. At the latitude of the LSA these data have a resolution of approximately 3 arc seconds or about 20 m. Data for the US side were obtained from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) 1:250000 map sheet archives. These elevation data have a resolution of approximately 12 arc seconds or about 100 m. Each of these resolutions should be sufficient for use in air quality modelling. Land use files for BC were obtained from 1:250,000 scale Baseline Thematic Mapping (BTM) format files from the BC Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management. Washington State land use information was obtained from 1:250,000 USGS format map sheets.
Representative Meteorology
The CALMET meteorological model was used to predict temporally and spatially dependent wind, temperature and turbulence fields. The CALMET model simulation was based on data from 6 surface stations and soundings from two upper air stations. The surface stations included stations T13, T17, T18 and T31 from the GVRD monitoring network, the MSC station at Vancouver International Airport and local wind speed and direction measured at Westshore Terminals. The two upper air stations included were Port Hardy on Vancouver Island and Quillayute in Washington State. (Appendix C).
Model Project The CALPUFF model was used to predict ambient air quality for the assessment scenarios. The code and documentation for this model are available from the US EPA website (2001). Guidelines for the selection and application of the model are available from US EPA (1995a, 1995b, 2003) as well as the applicable model manual (Scire et al., 2000). The CALPUFF model and the associated predictions have been accepted by the BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection.
Model Project The CALPUFF model was applied to the 30 km by 30 km LSA. Noteworthy items include: • A total of 2,898 receptors with an increased grid density surrounding the Project area
were selected. Grid densities vary from 100 m to 1 km, depending on distance from the Project area;
• An additional 16 community, wildlife and recreation locations were selected; • Predicted concentrations are presented as contours superimposed over the LSA base
map; and • Concentrations of criteria contaminants, VOCs and metals predicted at community,
wildlife and recreation receptors are presented in tabular formats and are provided for 1-h, 24-h and annual averaging periods.
Further details regarding the application of CALPUFF are provided in Appendix D.
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Total emissions for the various model scenarios are compared in Table S-3. Emissions estimated
for the Projected 2011 Baseline are less than those estimated for the Existing Baseline due to
replacement of old vehicles and equipment with vehicles and equipment that have improved
engines, and legislated decreases in sulphur content of on-road, off-road and marine diesel. The
increase in emissions due to the Project Operation relative to emissions included in the Existing
Baseline emissions inventory for the LSA varied from 7.4% for TSP to 41% for CO. Whereas
relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline emissions inventory, the increase due to the Project
Operation varied from 7.7% for TSP to 44% for CO. Many sources of background emissions in
the LSA, such as roads and space heating are not included in the emission inventory and
therefore the relative increase of emissions due to the Project is exaggerated. Relative to total
emissions in the RSA calculated for the year 2000 and projected for the year 2010, the increase
due to the Project Operation was less than 1% for all contaminants.
Table S-3: Comparison of Total Emissions Estimated for Model Scenarios (t/yr)
% Change due to Project Operation relative to Projected 2011 Baseline
2011 8.6 44 11 18 9.9 11 7.7
% Change due to Project Operation relative to 2000 RSA Total
2003 0.19 0.03 0.30 0.01 0.09 0.14 0.05
% Change due to Project Operation relative to 2010 RSA Total
2011 0.23 0.03 0.28 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.05
1 Based on Tables A-1 through A-11 of GVRD Forecast and Backcast of the 2000 Emissions Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed 1985-2025
Ground-level concentrations of SO2, CO, NOx, particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5
microns (PM2.5), particulate matter with diameter less than 10 microns (PM10), total suspended
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particulate (TSP) and total VOC were predicted using the CALPUFF/CALMET modelling
system for the Existing Baseline, Project Construction, Project Operation, and CEA scenarios.
The formation of secondary particulate was assessed using the MESOPUFF II chemistry scheme
in CALPUFF and the resulting secondary PM concentrations were added to predicted primary
PM for all three PM size fractions. Predicted NOx concentrations were converted to nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) concentrations using the ambient ratio method. Total VOC and PM
concentrations were speciated to determine concentrations of specific VOC, polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PAH) and diesel PM.
To assess the cumulative effects of air emissions from a project it is necessary to include the
contribution of emissions from other sources in the study area. For this study, cumulative effects
were determined by modelling the combined effect of the Project and all major sources of
emissions within the LSA (Deltaport, Westshore Terminal, and Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal)
then adding the 98th percentile ambient observed value to represent sources of emissions inside
the LSA that were not included in the modelling (e.g., space heating, roadways, agricultural
sources) and other sources located outside of the LSA. This approach is conservative and likely
results in double-counting of background sources, particularly for PM, NO2 and CO.
Maximum predicted ground-level SO2, NO2, CO and VOC concentrations, including
background, for all scenarios are compared to ambient criteria in Table S-4. Maximum PM
concentrations predicted for all scenarios are compared to ambient criteria in Table S-5.
Existing Baseline
The assessment of existing baseline air quality conditions is based on both the review of ambient
monitoring data and the application of dispersion modelling.
From 1999 to 2003 the air quality in the RSA was characterized as 'Good' 97% of the time or
more every year. During the same period, exceedances of ambient air quality criteria were
observed in the LSA only for PM2.5 and PM10 and these exceedances were attributed by the
GVRD to Halloween activities. Observed concentrations of all other criteria pollutants in the
LSA were less than air quality objectives.
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Table S-4: Maximum NO2, SO2, CO and VOC Ground-level Concentrations Predicted on Land (Including 98th Percentile
Ambient Background Values)
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) SO2 NO2 CO VOC1
% Change CEA relative to Projected 2011 Baseline 13% 10% 14% 2% 2% 2% 9% 2% 88% 82% 165%
BC Level A Objective3 450 160 25 - - 60 14,300 5,500 - - - BC Level B Objective3 900 260 50 400 200 100 28,000 11,000 - - - GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30 200 100 60 20,000 10,000 - - - US EPA Standard - 365 80 - - 100 40,000 10,000 - - - Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52 40,000 10,000 - - - 1 Ambient VOC data were not available for the LSA and therefore background values were not included for VOCs. 2 Project Construction and Project Operation scenarios include emissions from the Existing Baseline scenario. 3 The objectives shown for NO2 are federal not provincial.
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Table S-5: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Ground-level Concentrations Predicted on Land (Including 98th Percentile
Ambient BackgroundValues)
PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) PM2.5 PM10 TSP SCENARIO OR AMBIENT GUIDELINE
Canada-wide Standard 30 - - - - - - BC Level A Objective - - - 50 - 150 60 BC Level B Objective - - - - - 200 70 GVRD Trigger Level - - - 50 30 - - GVRD Proposed Objective 25 25 12 50 20 - - US EPA Standard - 65 15 150 50 - - Washington State Standard - 65 15 150 50 150 60 2 Project Construction and Project Operation scenarios include emissions from the Existing Baseline scenario.
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Tables S-4 and S-5 show that all maximum ground-level concentrations, including background
values, predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are considerably less than applicable
Canada-wide Standards and the most stringent BC Objectives.
Project Construction
All maximum concentrations predicted for Project Construction plus Existing Baseline,
including 98th percentile ambient values, were less than applicable Canada-wide Standards and
the most stringent BC Objectives for all averaging periods. Because the increase in SO2
emissions due to Project Construction is only 1%, Project Construction has virtually no impact
on ambient SO2 concentrations in the LSA. The increase in maximum predicted concentrations
of other contaminants is typically 8% or less. The relative increase in maximum predicted VOC
concentrations is 100% or more for two reasons. First, the increase in VOC emissions due to
Project Construction is 40%, which is greater than the increase for other contaminants. Second,
no ambient VOC data were available for the LSA and therefore a background value was not
added to the predicted concentrations; as a result the relative increase in ground-level
concentrations is much greater for VOCs than for all other contaminants. As there are no
ambient criteria for total VOCs, the significance of the predicted increase is assessed in the
Human Health Risk Assessment. Greatest influences of Project Construction are mainly limited
to the area immediately surrounding the Roberts Bank Port.
Project Operation
All maximum concentrations predicted for Project Operation plus Existing Baseline, including
background values, are less than applicable Canada-wide Standards and the most stringent BC
Objectives. Increases in maximum predicted concentrations due to Project Operation relative to
the Existing Baseline vary from a maximum of 13% for one-hour SO2 to around 2% for annual
NO2, CO and PM10. The increases in maximum predicted VOC concentrations are much higher
for the reasons given above and the significance of these increases is addressed in the Human
Health Risk Assessment. The majority of the increases in predicted concentrations of the criteria
contaminants are confined to the area immediately surrounding the Roberts Bank Port. Small
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increases of CO and VOCs are predicted along major roadways resulting from increased truck
traffic due to Project Operation.
Cumulative Effects Assessment
All maximum concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario, including background values, are
less than applicable Canada-wide Standards and the most stringent BC Objectives for all
averaging periods. The maximum predicted increases in ground-level concentrations of criteria
contaminants relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline ranges from 2% to 14%. Most increases are
predicted to occur in the near vicinity of the Roberts Bank Port.
Table S-6 provides a summary of impact ratings for changes in emissions and ambient
concentrations due to the Project. The impacts for air quality changes have been discussed
relative to BC ambient air quality objectives and Canada -wide Standards. Other reference levels,
proposed objectives and American standards have been included in tables, where relevant, for
comparison purposes. All maximum concentrations predicted to occur on Point Roberts were
considerably less than applicable US EPA or Washington State standards.
The impacts of emission and concentration changes due to the Project Operation were assessed
based on the direction, magnitude, geographic extent, duration, frequency, and reversibility of
predicted changes. The final impact ratings were:
• Low for emission changes,
• Moderate for SO2,
• Low for NO2,
• Low for CO,
• Low for PM,
• Low for VOCs,
• Low for the regional formation of ozone and secondary PM, and
• Low for greenhouse gas emissions.
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Table S-6: Summary of Impact Ratings of Changes due to the Project
ISSUE DIRECTION GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT MAGNITUDE DURATION FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY CONFIDENCE FINAL
RATING Project emissions to the atmosphere Negative Local Negligible to
High Mid-term Continuous Reversible High Low
Impact of Project emissions on ambient SO2 concentrations
Negative Local High Short-term Infrequent Reversible High Moderate
Impact of Project NOx emissions on ambient NO2 concentrations
Negative Local Low Short-term Infrequent Reversible High Low
Impact of Project emissions on ambient CO concentrations
Negative Local Low to Moderate Short-term Infrequent Reversible High Low
Impact of Project emissions on ambient PM concentrations
Negative Local Low to Moderate Short-term Infrequent Reversible High Low
Impact of Project emissions on ambient VOC concentrations
Negative Local High Short-term Infrequent Reversible High Low
Impact of Project emissions on regional O3 and secondary PM formation
Negative Global Negligible Long-term Continuous Reversible High Low
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Environmental Management Plan
Potential mitigation options that would reduce emissions from the Project Operation and other
marine sources were examined. Many of these options, such as creating a North American SOx
Emission Control Area (SECA) or installing emission control equipment on ships, trains or
trucks, are not within the control of the VPA. However, the VPA can work to influence those
who do have control whether they are regulators, terminal operators or ship owners.
The VPA have developed a strategy to manage air emissions that consists of four levels of
action. Level one consists of compiling scientific data to determine current air quality in the
region and establishing the contribution of operations associated with the Port of Vancouver to
the regional total. Level two consists of continuously improving the operational efficiency of the
Port of Vancouver terminals. Level three consists of the VPA maintaining up-to-date knowledge
in the area of technical innovations that may reduce air quality emissions associated with port
operations. Level four consists of working with other ports, regulators, and other organizations
to influence change.
Human Health Risk Assessment
A human health risk assessment (HHRA) and a wildlife health risk assessment (WHRA) were
completed to identify potential human and wildlife health impacts associated with estimated air
quality impacts resulting from the Project alone and the Project combined with other existing
operations in the region. Examination of the health risks followed a conventional risk assessment
approach. The steps followed included: i) Problem Formulation; ii) Toxicity/Hazard
Assessment; iii) Exposure Assessment; and, iv) Risk Characterization. A similar approach was
used for the WHRA. A high degree of conservatism was utilized to ensure that heath risks
would not be underestimated. The work relied on the results of air dispersion modelling
performed by RWDI in which ground-level air concentrations of the chemical constituents found
in the various emissions released were predicted. The predicted concentrations were expressed as
a function of different averaging times (i.e., 10-minute, one-hour, eight-hour, 24-hour, and
annual averages) to permit estimation of acute and chronic health risks.
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The potential human health risks, both short-term and long-term, associated with the Project that
might be presented to either the individuals living in the area or people who might frequent the
area, with special consideration given to individuals who might be especially vulnerable to any
chemicals emitted as part of the expansion, were evaluated. Wildlife health impacts were
assessed by determining if population level effects in ecological receptors within the study area
will occur as a result of the Project.
The HHRA methodology was augmented by Health Canada’s Health Determinants approach.
This multi-factorial approach considers other factors that can influence health such as where we
live, the state of our environment, genetics, our income and education level, and our relationships
with friends and family. As well, the HHRA was extended to include examination of potential
daily mortality and morbidity related to exposures to PM10 and PM2.5. In their report to the B.C.
Lung Association, Bates et al. (2003) recommended that, in addition to comparing predicted
ground level PM concentrations to health based exposure limits, an incremental risk analysis be
employed. This method attempt to provide an indication of the increased number of
hospitalizations and deaths per year that can be attributed to an incremental increase of PM
concentrations above ambient concentrations as a result of the Project.
Risk estimates were calculated by comparing the estimated exposures to the various COPC
(Chemicals of Potential Concern) to exposure limits or safe levels of exposure determined for
each. Risks were expressed as either Concentration Ratio (CR) or Exposure Ratio (ER) values
depending on the nature and duration of exposure. All CR and ER values were referenced to 1.0.
Values less than 1.0 signified an absence of health risks, since conservatively estimated
exposures were lower than exposure limits. Conversely, values greater than 1.0 signified the
possibility of health risks, the significance of which generally increased as the value became
greater. In all instances, the interpretation of the significance of the risk estimates considered the
high degree of conservatism incorporated into the exposure assessment, as well as safety factors
incorporated into the exposure limits.
Conservatism was incorporated into the exposure assessment to accommodate the uncertainty
associated with the health risk assessment. This was achieved through the use of assumptions,
which reflected “worst-case” conditions that would tend to exaggerate any health risks. The
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sources of uncertainty and assumptions underlying the risk estimates are presented in the main
report.
Human health risk estimates, represented by CR and ER values, were all less than 1.0, signifying
an absence of potential acute or chronic health risks in the local study area for all development
scenarios. Comparison between the Existing Baseline and Project Operation risk estimates (i.e.,
CRs and ERs) indicated that the Project is not predicted to have a measurable impact on public
health. Not only were the CR and ER values all less than 1.0 when the Project was considered on
a stand alone basis (i.e., Project scenario), but also when the potential health risks were assessed
on a cumulative basis (i.e., the CEA scenario). Similarly, estimates of the potential health risks
associated with existing background sources of COPC showed negligible health risks. Applying
Health Canada’s Health Determinants approach the First Nations should be considered a
population at risk; however, it is still unclear as to the exact nature of the relationship between
Health Determinants and their impacts on health.
The results from the WHRA revealed that the ER values were all less than 1.0, signifying an
absence of any potential chronic health risks to wildlife in the local study area for all
development scenarios.
PM risk estimates were low when using the Bates et al. (2003) method and considering that no
guideline exceedances were predicted on either an acute or chronic basis, overall health risks as
they relate to PM were characterized as being low.
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4.4.1 Historical Ambient Air Quality ................................................................ 34
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4.4.1.1 Ambient Air Quality in the RSA .................................................... 34
4.4.1.2 Ambient Air Quality in the LSA .................................................... 35
Table 4-16: Summary of Emissions (t/yr) Included in the Project Construction Scenario ......... 46
Table 4-17: Maximum SO2, NO2, CO and VOC Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for
the Project Construction Scenario ........................................................................... 48
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Table 4-18: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the
Project Construction Scenario................................................................................. 49
Table 4-19: Summary of Emissions (t/yr) Included in the Project Operation Scenario .............. 54
Table 4-20: Maximum SO2, NO2, CO and VOC Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for
the Project Operation Scenario................................................................................ 56
Table 4-21: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the
Table 4-22: Summary of Emissions Included in the CEA Scenario (t/yr) .................................. 65
Table 4-23: Impact Ratings for Emission Changes due to Project Operation ............................. 66
Table 4-24: Maximum SO2, NO2, CO and VOC Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for
the CEA Scenario .................................................................................................... 68
Table 4-25: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the
CEA Scenario.......................................................................................................... 69
Table 4-26: Impact Ratings for SO2 Concentration Changes due to the Project .......................... 71
Table 4-27: Impact Ratings for NO2 Concentration Changes due to the Project ......................... 72
Table 4-28: Impact Ratings for CO Concentration Changes due to the Project........................... 74
Table 4-29: Impact Ratings for PM Concentration Changes due to the Project........................... 76
Table 4-30: Impact Ratings for Total VOC Concentration Changes due to the Project............... 78
Table 4-31: Contribution of Project Operation Emissions to Total Emissions in the Regional
Study Area............................................................................................................... 84
Table 4-32: Impact Ratings for Changes in Regional Ozone and Secondary PM Formation due
to the Project............................................................................................................ 85
Table 4-33: Contribution of Project Operation GHG Emissions to Total Emissions in the
Regional Study Area ............................................................................................... 87
Table 4-34: Impact Ratings for Changes in GHG Emissions due to the Project......................... 88
Table 4-35: Summary of Impact Ratings of Changes due to the Project..................................... 91
Table 5-1: COPC for the HHRA................................................................................................ 114
Table 5-2: Discrete Receptors near Roberts Bank Selected for the HHRA .............................. 117
Table 5-3: Summary of the Problem Formulation..................................................................... 129
Table 5-4: Air Quality Guidelines Adopted for the Assessment of Potential Inhalation Health
Risks Associated with the Criteria Compounds in the Project’s Air Emissions(1) 134
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Table 5-5: Exposure Limits Adopted for the Assessment of Potential Health Risks Associated
with the Non-criteria Compounds Found in the Project Air Emissions(1)............. 138
Table 5-6: Assumed Background Ambient Air Concentrations from Urban Areas.................. 144
Table 5-7 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Tsawwassen First Nation Receptor (1) 148
Table 5-8 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Agricultural Receptors (1,2)................. 150
Table 5-9 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Canadian Residential Receptors (1,2) .. 152
Table 5-10 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the U.S. Residential Receptors (1,2) .......... 154
Table 5-11 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Recreational Receptor (1).................... 156
Table 5-12 Chronic Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Tsawwassen First Nation Receptor (1)
Table 5-21: Changes in mortality and morbidity events attributable to predicted Project-related
increases in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Ladner and Tsawwassen ............. 171
List of Figures Included at the End of the Report
Figure 2-1: Location of Deltaport Third Berth Expansion
Figure 2-2: Site Map of Roberts Bank Port and Deltaport Third Berth Expansion
Figure 2-3: Deltaport Third Berth Expansion Local Study Area (LSA)
Figure 2-4: Topographical Map of Local Study Area
Figure 4-1: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at YVR Station
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Figure 4-2: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at GVRD Station T17
Figure 4-3: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at GVRD Station T31
Figure 4-4: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at GVRD Station T13
Figure 4-5: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at GVRD Station T18
Figure 4-6: Observed Wind Speed and Direction at Westshore Terminals
Figure 4-7: CALMET Wind Speed and Direction at Hwy 17
Figure 4-8: Observed 500mb Upper Air at Port Hardy
Figure 4-9: Observed 500mb Upper Air Quillayute
Figure 4-10: CALMET Wind Speed and Direction Upper Layer at Hwy 17
Figure 4-11: Daytime CALMET Model Mixing Height
Figure 4-12: Locations of Monitoring Stations in the LFV Air Quality Monitoring Network
Figure 4-13: Location of Ambient Monitoring Stations in LSA
Figure 4-14: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 1-hour SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-15: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 24-hour SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-16: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted Annual SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-17: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 1-hour NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-18: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 24-hour NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-19: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted Annual NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-20: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 1-hour CO Concentrations
Figure 4-21: Existing Baseline: Maximum Predicted 8-hour CO Concentrations
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Figure 4-45: CEA: Maximum Predicted 1-hour SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-46: CEA: Maximum Predicted 24-hour SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-47: CEA: Maximum Predicted Annual SO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-48: CEA: Maximum Predicted 1-hour NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-49: CEA: Maximum Predicted 24-hour NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-50: CEA: Maximum Predicted Annual NO2 Concentrations
Figure 4-51: CEA: Maximum Predicted 1-hour CO Concentrations
Figure 4-52: CEA: Maximum Predicted 8-hour CO Concentrations
Figure 4-54: CEA: Maximum Predicted 24-hour PM10 Concentrations
Figure 4-55: CEA: Maximum Predicted 1-hour VOC Concentrations
Figure 5-2: Location of Discrete Receptors
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List of Appendices
Appendix A: Emissions Inventory
Appendix B: Ambient Air Quality Observations
Appendix C: CALMET Meteorological Model
Appendix D: CALPUFF Dispersion Model
Appendix E: CALINE CALPUFF Line Source Comparison
Appendix F: Predicted Concentrations at Specific Receptors
Appendix G: Wildlife Health Risk Assessment
Appendix H: Wildlife Model Parameters
Appendix I: Toxicological Profiles
Appendix J: Health Studies
Appendix K: Model Description
Appendix L: Predicted Air Concentrations
Appendix M: Concentration Ratios and Exposure Ratios
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List of Acronyms
AAQO Ambient Air Quality Objective
AIHA American Industrial Hygiene Association
ASL Above Sea Level
ATSDR Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
AQI Air Quality Index
AQO Air Quality Objective
AQS Air Quality Standards
AQVM Air Quality Valuation Model
AAQC Ambient Air Quality Criteria
B(a)P Benzo(a)pyrene
BCAAQO BC Ambient Air Quality Objectives
BC MWLAP BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection
BTM Baseline Thematic Mapping
CARB California Air Resources Board
CCME Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment
CDED Canadian Digital Elevation Database
CEA Cumulative Effects Assessment
CH4 Methane
CHA Cardiac Hospital Admissions
CO2E Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
CO Carbon Monoxide
COPC Chemicals of Potential Concern
CP Canadian Pacific
CR Concentration Ratio
CRFs Concentration-Response Factors
CWS Canada-wide Standards
DOCs Diesel Oxidation Catalysts
DPF Diesel Particulate Matter Filters
DTED Digital Terrain Elevation Data
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DWI Direct Water Injection
EGR Exhaust Gas Recirculation
ER Exposure Ratio
ERAM In-house Multi-Media Exposure Model
ERPG-1 Emergency Response Planning Guidelines
FVRD Fraser Valley Regional District
GHG Greenhouse Gases
GVRD Greater Vancouver Regional District
HEI Health Effects Institute
HHRA Human Health Risk Assessment
HNO3 Nitric Acid
ICBC Insurance Corporation of British Columbia
IMO International Marine Organization
IPM Individual PAH Model
IR Indian Reservation
IRIS Integrated Risk Information System
LFV Lower Fraser Valley
LHA Local Health Authority
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
LOAEL Lowest-Observed-Adverse-Effect-Level
LSA Local study area
MARPOL International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships
MDO Marine Diesel Oil
MFN Musqueam First Nation
MOVES Multi-Scale Motor Vehicle and Engine Emission System
MRLs Minimal Risk Levels
NAAQO National Ambient Air Quality Objectives
NMMAPS National Mortality, Morbidity, and Air Pollution Study
NO2 Nitrogen Dioxide
NOx Nitrogen Oxides
NOAEL No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Level
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O3 Ozone
ODEQ Oregon Department of Environmental Quality
OEHHA California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment
TSi Consultants TransSYS International Consultants
TSP Total Suspended Particulate
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TD05s Tumorigenic Doses 05
ULSD Ultra-Low Sulphur Diesel
US EPA United States Protection Agency
USGS United States Geological Survey
VOC Volatile Organic Compounds
VPA Vancouver Port Authority
WDOE Washington State Department of Ecology
WHO World Health Organization
WMM Whole Mixture Model
WHRA Wildlife Health Risk Assessment
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
The Vancouver Port Authority (VPA) is proposing to expand its existing Roberts Bank Port
facility located in Delta, British Columbia. The proposed expansion includes two separate
container terminal projects: the Deltaport Third Berth Project and the Terminal 2 Project. The
Deltaport Third Berth Project will add a third berth to the existing Deltaport Container Terminal,
while the Terminal 2 Project will create a new three-berth container terminal. VPA is currently
studying the environmental impacts of the Deltaport Third Berth Project (the Project). The
impact of emissions from the Terminal 2 Project could not be included quantitatively in this
assessment due to the lack of available emissions information; however its effects are
qualitatively discussed in the cumulative effects assessment section. The environmental impacts
of the Terminal 2 Project will be assessed in a subsequent study.
This section of the environmental assessment for the Deltaport Third Berth Project examines
existing air quality and human health in the Project area, and predicts air quality and human
health impacts associated with emissions from the proposed Project with existing sources in the
general region. For ease of reporting, the wildlife health assessment for the Project is presented
separately in Appendix G.
1.1 OVERVIEW
The Deltaport Third Berth Project will expand the capacity at Deltaport by 400,000 twenty-foot
equivalent units (TEUs) per annum. The Project includes the construction of approximately
20 hectares of fill for newly constructed land for container operations and storage, and
construction of a wharf to accommodate an additional berth. Other components of the Project
include a tug moorage area, deepening of the existing ship channel, an additional truck exit gate,
additional rail support track, and some limited road improvements.
The Project will result in increases of marine (container vessels and tugs), rail and road traffic as
well as increases in terminal loading and unloading equipment (ship-to-shore gantry cranes,
rubber-tire gantries, rail-mounted gantries and tractor trailers). These sources will release
gaseous and particulate emissions to the atmosphere. The chemical composition of the
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atmosphere will be changed by these releases. Exposure to these changes could have adverse
effects on human and wildlife health. The following assessment provides an understanding of
existing air quality in the vicinity of the Project and of the magnitude and the spatial variation of
air quality changes due to the Project. The assessment considers overlapping effects of the
Project with other existing operations in the region.
Additionally, a human health risk assessment (HHRA) was completed to identify potential
human health impacts associated with estimated air quality impacts resulting from the Project in
combination with existing operations in the region. The potential health risks, both short-term
and long-term, associated with the Project that might be presented to either the individuals living
in the area or people who might frequent the area, with special consideration given to individuals
who might be especially vulnerable to any chemicals emitted as part of the expansion were
evaluated. The HHRA adopted the approach proposed by Dr. David Bates (Bates, 2002)
published by the West Coast Environmental Law Association. This approach relies on
epidemiological data to evaluate the impacts of the common air contaminants, as outlined
recently in the BC Lung Association report (Bates et al., 2003), and on the current regulatory
approach to assessing risk for air toxics, where epidemiological data are not available. The
Determinants of Health approach recommended by Health Canada also is utilized where
appropriate (Health Canada, 2003).
1.2 OBJECTIVES
The objectives of this air quality and human health assessment are to:
• Characterize the baseline air quality in the vicinity of the Project;
• Identify chemicals of potential concern in air emissions from the Project;
• Identify and characterize existing atmospheric emission sources in the study area;
• Identify human receptors of concern, and associated exposure pathways;
• Predict ambient air quality changes due to the Project and other operations in the area;
• Estimate potential exposures by human receptors to the chemicals of concern;
• Identify exposure limits for chemicals of concern (i.e., the maximum exposures receptors
could be exposed to without experiencing adverse health effects);
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• Evaluate potential health risks associated with each development scenario;
• Provide quantitative risk estimates for receptors of interest associated with the Project for
each development scenario; and
• Assess the significance of the predicted air quality changes and human health effects.
2.0 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL BOUNDARIES
2.1 TEMPORAL BOUNDARIES
The addition of Deltaport Third Berth will increase the capacity at Deltaport to 1.3 million TEUs
per annum. It is anticipated that construction of the Deltaport Third Berth will commence in
spring 2006, that the Third Berth will be operational in 2008 and will reach full capacity by
2012. The expected life of the Project is greater than 100 years. As future shipping data were
provided for 2011, this year was selected for the Cumulative Effects Assessment, which is based
on the assumption that the Third Berth is at full capacity. The Existing Baseline emissions
inventory was developed based on data for the year 2003.
2.2 LOCATION OF THE PROJECT AND AIR QUALITY MODELLING DOMAIN
The Deltaport Third Berth Project is located at the existing Roberts Bank Port facility in Delta,
approximately 35 km south of Vancouver, as shown in Figure 2-1. The Roberts Bank Causeway
and terminal are located on the south end of Roberts Bank, south of the main area of the Fraser
River outflow.
Figure 2-2 is a site map of the Roberts Bank Port facility. Existing VPA facilities at Roberts
Bank include Deltaport, which is a 65 ha container terminal operated by Terminal Systems Inc.
(TSI), and Westshore Terminals, which is a 50 ha bulk handling coal port facility (see Figure 2-
2). These terminals are connected to the mainland by a 4.1 km long causeway, which supports
road and rail infrastructure. The proposed location of the Deltaport Third Berth is north of the
existing Deltaport terminal.
Two study areas were defined for this assessment:
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• A 30 km by 30 km Local Study Area (LSA) was defined for the purpose of evaluating
predicted overlapping effects associated with the Project and existing sources such as
Deltaport, Westhore Terminals, and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. The LSA is
illustrated in Figure 2-3. Its centre is shifted to the northeast of Roberts Bank Port to
encompass a larger area of land than water. The LSA includes the communities of
Tsawwassen, Tsawwassen First Nation, Ladner, Boundary Bay/Maple Beach, Beach
Grove, Steveston (City of Richmond), and Point Roberts (US).
• A Regional Study Area (RSA) was also defined in the event that predicted impacts in the
LSA for ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors are significant, in which case
regional airshed modelling would be conducted to assess the secondary formation of PM
and ozone. The RSA consists of the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV) airshed, which is
bounded by the Coast and Cascade mountain ranges and the Straight of Georgia. The
LFV includes the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), the Fraser Valley
Regional District (FVRD) and Whatcom County in the US.
Regional geography can influence meteorology, which will consequently influence the transport,
dilution and dispersion of emissions from the Project and other sources. The geography of the
LSA was reviewed to aid in the understanding of local meteorology associated with the study
area.
Figure 2-4 shows the topography within the LSA. The most prominent topographical feature is
the Fraser River that flows from the northeastern corner of the study area to the ocean a few
kilometres north of Roberts Bank. The plain of the Fraser River delta extends over most of the
LSA and as a result the terrain elevation is generally less than 10 m above sea level (ASL).
There are two topographical features with raised terrain located within the LSA. The Point
Roberts peninsula has elevated terrain rising to an elevation of 60 m (ASL). A major feature of
this terrain is the English and Boundary Bluffs that rise up from the coastline and border the City
of Tsawwassen. The Project and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal are located directly west
across the water from English Bluff. The second area of significant elevation lies on the
northeastern border of the LSA where the City of Surrey is located. This area has the highest
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elevation within the study area at 112 m ASL. These topographical features will not dominate the
wind fields within the area, but may influence surface winds within a few kilometres.
Terrain effects will be more significant at the land-sea interface where differences in elevation as
well as surface roughness and temperature can influence boundary layer mechanics. Wind
channelling may also occur along the Fraser River.
3.0 ISSUES SCOPING AND ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS
3.1 AIR QUALITY AND HUMAN HEALTH ISSUES RELATING TO THE DELTAPORT THIRD
BERTH PROJECT
Potential air quality issues need to be evaluated in the context of the airshed, other sources of
emissions in the airshed, other users of the airshed, and the regulatory framework. In particular,
the BC regulatory framework identifies the need to meet ambient air quality objectives for a
number of chemical species that are emitted or created. In addition, Point Roberts is located in
the airshed but it is part of Washington State in the US and there is a need to ensure that
transboundary emissions from the Project do not result in exceedances of the ambient air quality
standards of that jurisdiction. There is also continuing provincial, national and international
interest in minimizing the production of greenhouse gas emissions.
The following is a list of air quality issues relevant to the Deltaport Third Berth Project.
1. Project Emissions to the Atmosphere – Marine, rail and truck traffic will increase due to
the Project. In addition, the Third Berth will be equipped with new dockyard equipment.
Thus, as a result of the Project, emissions of gaseous chemicals and particulate matter to
the atmosphere will increase.
2. Impact of Project Emissions on Ambient Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) Concentrations –
Ambient SO2 exposures at sufficiently high concentrations can have adverse impacts on
human health and vegetation. SO2 emissions within the LSA are projected to increase
due to the addition of the Project.
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3. Impact of Project Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) Emissions on Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Concentrations – Ambient NO2 exposures at sufficiently high concentrations can have
adverse impacts on human health and vegetation. As a result of the Project, NOx
emissions within the LSA are projected to increase.
4. Impact of Project Emissions on Ambient Carbon Monoxide (CO) Concentrations –
Ambient CO exposures at sufficiently high concentrations can have adverse impacts on
human health. CO emissions are projected to increase as a result of the Project.
5. Impact of Project Emissions on Ambient Particulate Matter (PM) Concentrations –
Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (referred to as PM2.5) is
of specific interest relative to human health impacts. As a result of the Project, PM2.5
emissions are projected to increase.
6. Impact of Project Emissions on Secondary Ozone and PM Formation – Ambient NOx
emissions can combine with anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions to form ground-
level ozone (O3) downwind of the study area. In sufficiently high concentrations, ambient
O3 exposures can have adverse impacts on human health and vegetation. Similarly,
anthropogenic emissions of SO2, NOx and VOC can lead to the formation of secondary
particulate, which can have adverse impacts on human health and visibility. As a result
of the Project, SO2, NOx and VOC emissions are projected to increase.
7. Project Contribution to Greenhouse Gas Emissions – The combustion of hydrocarbon
fuels (gas, diesel, propane, fuel oil, etc.) will result in the release of greenhouse gases
(primarily carbon dioxide, CO2). Incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels can also
result in the release of methane (CH4), another greenhouse gas, at significantly lower
amounts relative to CO2 emissions.
8. Impact of Project Emissions on Community, Wildlife and Recreation Receptors –
Combustion sources produce SO2, NOx, CO, PM, metals, polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons (PAH) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. As PAH and
VOC include a wide range of compounds, representative species were selected to assess
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potential human and wildlife health impacts. The number of combustion sources is
projected to increase as a result of the Project, thereby increasing emissions of the
aforementioned compounds.
The source and nature of these issues, and the justification for including or excluding an issue are
summarized in Table 3-1.
3.2 AIR QUALITY AND HUMAN HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS
The following scenarios were used to assess the effects of the proposed Project on ambient air
quality and human health. Underlying assumptions for these scenarios are provided in Table 3-2.
• Existing Baseline: defined by emissions from existing sources in the LSA for the year 2003.
This year was selected for the existing baseline rather than 2000, as suggested in the
Work Plan, because activity level data for most sources were provided for the year 2003.
• Project Construction: defined by emissions from construction operations at their peak in
2006. This year was selected because it is the year when construction activity is expected
to be highest.
• Project Operation: defined by emissions from the Project operating at full capacity in 2011.
Although the Project is not expected to reach full capacity until 2012, this year was
selected because future shipping data were provided for the year 2011. For this study it
was assumed that the Project will be operating at full capacity by 2011.
• Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA): defined by emissions from the Project operating at
full capacity in addition to emissions from existing, approved and proposed sources in the
LSA projected for the year 2011 (Projected 2011 Baseline). (Note that in the LSA there
is no known approved source of air emissions. Known proposed sources in the LSA
include Deltaport Terminal 2 and the South Fraser Perimeter Road, for which there were
three possible alignments at the time this study was conducted. Since insufficient
information was available for these proposed projects they could not be included in the
Projected 2011 Baseline.)
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Table 3-1: Air and Health Issue Scoping Results
ISSUE RELEVANCE TO THE PROJECT KEY IMPACT QUESTION INDICATOR AIR QUALITY PARAMETERS CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING
IMPACTS
Project emissions to the atmosphere
The Project will result in emissions of gaseous chemicals and particulate matter to the atmosphere. The identification of these emissions forms the basis of the air quality assessment.
What are the Project emissions to the atmosphere?
Air emissions SO2, NOx, CO, VOC and PM
emissions. Change relative to study area emissions
Impact of Project emissions on ambient SO2 concentrations
Exposures to sufficiently high ambient SO2 concentrations can have adverse impacts on human health and vegetation. SO2 emissions are projected to increase.
What are the effects of Project emissions on ambient SO2 concentrations?
SO2 concentration Maximum 1-h, 24-h and annual average SO2 concentrations. Geographic distribution of predicted values.
1-h, 24-h and annual BC ambient air quality objectives (BCAAQO)
Impact of Project NOx emissions on ambient NO2 concentrations
Exposures to sufficiently high ambient NO2 concentrations can have adverse impacts on human health. Emissions of NOx are projected to increase.
What is the impact of Project NOx emissions on ambient NO2 concentrations?
NO2 concentration Maximum 1-h, 24-h and annual average NO2 concentrations. Geographic distribution of predicted values.
1-h, 24-h and annual National ambient air quality objectives (NAAQO)
Impact of Project on ambient CO concentrations
Exposures to sufficiently high ambient CO concentrations can have adverse impacts on human health. As a result of the Project, emissions of CO are projected to increase.
What is the impact of Project emissions on ambient CO concentrations?
CO concentration Maximum 1-h and 8-h CO concentrations. Geographic distribution of predicted values
1-h and 8-h BCAAQO
Impact of Project on ambient PM concentrations
Exposures to sufficiently high ambient PM2.5 concentrations can have adverse impacts on human health. The Project will result in emissions of primary PM and the precursors to secondary PM formation.
What is the impact of Project emissions on ambient PM concentrations?
PM2.5, PM10 and TSP concentrations
Maximum 24-h and annual average PM2.5, PM10 and TSP concentrations.
Geographic distribution of predicted values.
24-h Canada-wide standard (CWS) for PM2.5 and GVRD Objectives for PM10, BCAAQO for TSP
Impact of Project emissions on secondary O3 and PM formation
Ambient NOx emissions can combine with anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions to form ground-level O3 downwind of the region. In sufficiently high concentrations, ambient O3 exposures can have adverse impacts on human health and vegetation. Similarly, SO2, NOx and VOC emissions can combine to form secondary PM, which can have adverse impacts on human health and visibility. As a result of the project, precursor SO2, NOx and VOC emissions are projected to increase.
What is the impact of Project emissions on ambient O3 and secondary PM concentrations?
O3 and PM2.5 concentrations
Magnitude of precursor emissions
Change relative to regional study area emissions
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ISSUE RELEVANCE TO THE PROJECT KEY IMPACT QUESTION INDICATOR AIR QUALITY PARAMETERS CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING
IMPACTS
Project contribution to greenhouse gas emissions
The combustion of hydrocarbon fuels will result in the release of greenhouse gases (primarily CO2). Incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels can also result in the release of methane (CH4), another greenhouse gas, at significantly lower amounts relative to CO2 emissions.
What is the Project contribution to greenhouse gas emissions?
Greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions expressed as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2E)
Change relative to provincial and federal GHG totals
Impact of Project Emissions on Community, Wildlife and Recreation Receptors
Combustion sources produce SO2, NOx, CO, PM2.5, metals, PAH and VOC emissions. Ambient exposures to sufficiently high concentrations of these chemicals can have adverse impacts on human health or wildlife. The number of combustion sources in the region is projected to increase.
What is the impact of Project combustion emissions on community, wildlife and recreation receptors?
SO2, NO2, CO, PM2.5, PM10, metals, PAH and VOC concentrations
Maximum 1-h, 8-h, 24-h and annual average concentrations for the criteria compounds at community, wildlife and recreation locations.
Maximum 1-h, 24-h, and annual average concentrations for a number of VOCs (e.g., benzene), PAHs and metals are evaluated. For the full list, see Section 3.4).
BC MWLAP
Health Canada
CEPA
CCME
OMOE
US EPA
CARB
ASTDR
WHO
ACGIH
AIHA
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Table 3-2: Emission Inventory Assumptions of Impact Assessment Scenarios
SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
Dockyard Equipment
• List of combustion equipment including rated horsepower, age of equipment and fuel use estimates provided by Terminal Systems Incorporated (TSI)
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • Emission rates estimated using the US EPA NONROAD2004 model
Container Trucks Operating at Terminal
• Average daily traffic levels and gate times provided by TransSYS International Consultants Limited (TSi Consultants)
• Container truck emission factors derived from US EPA MOBILE6.2C model for year 2003 • Daily traffic distribution estimated from 2003 traffic count data on Deltaport Way provided by TSi
• Number, size of vessels, duration of vessel call and fuel use based on the 2003 Port of Call list provided by Chamber of Shipping
• Average percent weight of sulphur in fuel oil estimated from Chamber of Shipping Fuel Use Inventory; marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits
• Operational parameters of tugboats assisting container vessels into berth provided by Batchelor Marine Consulting
• Emission factors estimated using methodology outlined in the 2000 Marine Emission Inventory report prepared by Levelton (2002)
Deltaport
Trains • Train traffic volumes, operation duty cycles, fuel use and idling times based on assumptions reviewed by BC Rail
• Locomotive age distribution assumed fleet age between 1966 to 2001 • Emission factors based on US EPA legislated engine emission standards • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • All trains were assumed to idle for a period of 24 hours at the Terminal
Dockyard Equipment
• List of combustion equipment including rated horsepower, age of equipment and fuel use estimates provided by Westshore
• Other assumptions are the same as for Deltaport Bulk Carrier Vessels (Underway, Maneuvering, Dockside)
• Size of vessels based on the 2003 Port of Call list provided by Chamber of Shipping; ship numbers were conservatively increased to reflect peak capacity year as 2003 vessel calls were lower than average
• Other assumptions the same as for Deltaport Container vessels
Trains • Same assumptions as for Deltaport
Existing Baseline (2003)
Westshore
Fugitive Coal Dust Sources
• Wind erosion of coal dust from coal stockpiles and transfer activities are estimated based on the maximum coal storage capacity and peak coal volume throughput for the terminal
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SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
• Threshold friction velocity and surface roughness height of the stockpiled coal were estimated based on typical parameters outlined in AP-42 US EPA methodology
• A control efficiency of 70% was used to account for the automated coal dust suppression system Westshore has in place
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal
Ferry Ships (Cruise, Hotelling)
• Emissions estimated for peak season of 32 sailings a day based on BC Ferries schedule • Emission factors were estimated using methodology outlined in the 2000 Marine Emission Inventory
report prepared by Levelton (2002) • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003
Project Construction Equipment
• List of construction equipment, rated horsepower and duration of operation of equipment was provided by AMEC
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on national average fuel sulphur content in 2003 • Emission rates and fuel use were estimated using the US EPA NONROAD2004 model
Deltaport All Sources • Same assumptions as Existing Baseline Westshore All Sources • Same assumptions as Existing Baseline
Project Construction (2006)
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal
All Sources • Same assumptions as Existing Baseline
Dockyard Equipment
• Additional equipment requirements and fuel consumption based on Draft Project Description and projected increase in TEU traffic
Container Trucks Operating at Terminal
• Project container truck traffic based on average daily traffic provided by TSi Consultants
• Project 2011 vessel size distribution based on the May 17, 2004 Moffat Nichols report • The number of vessel calls was determined from the projected increase in average TEU capacity and the
projected number of vessels for year 2011 presented in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Assessment Study.
• Marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits for 2007 Trains • Project train traffic was based on rail forecast data prepared by Mainline Management (MLM)
Project Operation (2011)
Project
Container Trucks Operating in LSA
• Project container truck traffic was based on forecasts provided by TSi Consultants
Project All Emission Sources
• Same assumptions as Project Operation
Dockyard Equipment
• Equipment replacement rates for Handlers assumed to be every 10 years and for RTG’s every 20 years • Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm
CEA (2011) Deltaport
Container Trucks operating at
• Container truck emission factors derived from US EPA MOBILE6.2C model for year 2011
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SCENARIO (YEAR)
FACILITY SOURCES BASIS FOR EMISSION INVENTORY AND ASSUMPTIONS
• Year 2011 vessel size distribution based on the May 17, 2004 Moffat Nichols report • The number of vessel calls was determined from the projected increase in average container capacity
and the projected number of vessels for year 2011 presented in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Study • Marine diesel fuel sulphur content based on US EPA mandated limits for 2007
Trains • Locomotive replacement rate based on 25 % of fleet being replaced between 2003 and 2011 (approximate average locomotive engine life of 32 years)
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm Dockyard Equipment
• Equipment replacement rates for earthmoving equipment and portable stationary diesel equipment assumed to be every 15 years
• Nonroad diesel sulphur levels based on mandated 2007 level of 500 ppm Bulk Carrier Vessels (Underway, Maneuvering, Dockside)
• Number of vessel calls based on historic peak capacity indicated in the Batchelor Navigational Impact Assessment Study
Trains • Rail traffic increased by two trains per day arriving and departing over existing baseline 2003 based on information from BC rail
Westshore
Fugitive Coal Dust Sources
• Same as Existing Baseline
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal
Ferry Ships (Cruise, Hotelling)
• Ferry traffic based on maximum peak season of 37 sailings per day
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Locations of existing sources that are included in the modelling (i.e., Westshore Terminals,
Deltaport Terminal, Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, and shipping lanes) are shown in Figure 2-3.
4.0 AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT
Air quality is characterized by the chemical composition of the air, which depends on the
quantity of industrial and natural emissions, local meteorology, and land use properties. Table
3-1 defines the indicators used to characterize air quality, such as SO2 concentration or
greenhouse gas emissions.
The chemical composition of the atmosphere is described in terms of the concentrations of
various contaminants. These concentrations can be expressed in terms of parts per million on a
volume basis (ppm), parts per billion on a volume basis (ppb) or micrograms per cubic meter of
air (µg/m3).
The impact of air emissions from a single source on ambient air quality generally decreases with
increasing distance from the source. Furthermore, the ambient concentration of contaminants for
any time period will depend on the prevailing meteorology during that period. Therefore, the
ambient concentration prediction patterns due to air emission sources vary considerably with
location and time.
Table 3-1 lists the air quality parameters that were used for this assessment. Maximum predicted
values, which are specific to a single location and a narrow range of meteorological conditions,
were selected as a primary air quality indicator for comparison purposes. These indicators were
used to assess the significance of the predicted concentrations. The maximum predicted values
plus background values are compared to the selected ambient criteria. In addition, the changes
due to the Project are presented as a percent change relative to the reference assessment
scenarios.
4.1 AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
Air emissions from the Project will result in ground-level concentrations of various chemicals.
Maximum concentration levels of these criteria and toxic pollutants should be such that the
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changes in their concentrations in ambient air do not result in an exceedance of established air
quality objectives (where available), or have an adverse effect on the environment.
monoxide, particulate matter, and ozone) are regulated by provincial and national objectives.
With the exception of ozone and some particulate matter, all of these air emissions are primary
pollutants, meaning that they are emitted directly from the source. There are no air quality
criteria for total volatile organic compounds (VOC). The following subsections provide some
background information on the criteria air contaminants and present relevant air quality criteria.
4.1.1 Sulphur Dioxide
Sulphur dioxide is a colourless gas with a pungent odour. It is produced primarily by the
combustion of fossil fuels containing sulphur. Major sources of SO2 emissions in the study area
include marine vessels, motor vehicles and off-road engines.
Sulphur dioxide reacts in the atmosphere to form sulphuric acid, a major contributor to acid rain,
and particulate sulphates, which can reduce visibility.
The most common effects resulting from short-term overexposure to SO2 involve the breathing
passages and include throat or lung irritation or bronchospasm in asthmatics (WHO, 1999).
Reported long-term health effects include reduction of lung function, chronic respiratory
symptoms in asthmatics and increased hospital admissions to acute care hospitals (Health
Canada, 1998). SO2 is also known to be a potent bronchoconstrictor and has been shown to
induce bronchoconstriction, hyper reactivity and airway inflammation in both human and animal
studies. For further information pertaining to health effects that may result from exposure to
sulphur dioxide, refer to Appendix I.
Table 4-1 compares air quality objectives, standards and guidelines related to SO2 for BC,
Canada, US, Washington State and the GVRD. The Canadian criteria tend to be more stringent
then the US criteria. The BC Objectives were selected for evaluating predicted air quality
impacts.
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Table 4-1: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for SO2 (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 10 MIN 1-HOUR 3-HOUR 24-HOUR ANNUAL
Canada Maximum Desirable
Maximum Acceptable Maximum Tolerable
450 900
150 300 800
30 60
BC MWLAP Level A Level B Level C
450 900
900-1,300
375 665
160 260 360
25 50 80
US EPA Standard 1,300 365 80
Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52
GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30
4.1.2 Nitrogen Dioxide
Nitrogen dioxide is a reddish-brown gas with a pungent, irritating odour. It is produced when
fossil fuels are burned at high temperatures. Nitrogen dioxide can also combine with other air
contaminants to form fine particulates, which can reduce visibility. It can be further oxidized to
form nitric acid, a component of acid rain. Nitrogen dioxide also plays a major role in the
secondary formation of ozone.
In the Lower Fraser Valley, transportation sources (internal combustion engines) account for a
majority of nitrogen oxide emissions, while stationary and area sources such as steam boilers and
building heating systems account for the rest.
In humans, the most common effects resulting from overexposure to NO2 include the observation
of increased airway resistance and altered lung function after short-term exposure under
controlled conditions. Epidemiology studies have reported increased incidence of respiratory
illness. Lung tissue damage and decreased immune functioning were observed in laboratory
animals (Health Canada, 1998). NO2 also may produce irritation of the eyes (HSDB, 2004). For
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further information pertaining to health effects that may result from exposure to nitrogen dioxide,
refer to Appendix I.
Air quality objectives, standards and guidelines related to NO2 for Canada, US, Washington
State and the GVRD are compared in Table 4-2. The GVRD proposed objectives are the most
stringent; however they are not yet in force. Therefore, the Canadian and existing GVRD
objectives, which are equivalent, were selected for evaluation of air quality impacts.
Table 4-2: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for NO2 (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 1-HOUR 24-HOUR ANNUAL
Canada Maximum Desirable
Maximum Acceptable Maximum Tolerable
- 400
1,000
- 200 300
60 100
-
US EPA Standard - - 100
Washington State Standard - - 100
GVRD Maximum Desirable
Maximum Acceptable Maximum Tolerable
- 400
1,000
- 200 300
60 100
-
GVRD Proposed Objective 200 100 60
4.1.3 Carbon Monoxide
Carbon monoxide is a colourless, odourless and tasteless gas produced by incomplete
combustion of fossil fuels. It is the most widely distributed and commonly occurring air
pollutant and comes primarily from motor vehicle emissions from cars, trucks, and buses.
Building heating and commercial and industrial operations are also contributors.
Short-term health effects related to carbon monoxide exposure can include headache, dizziness,
light-headedness and fainting, as well as adverse effects on the cardiovascular system (New
Jersey DHSS, 1998; Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). Long-term health effects of exposure to
low concentrations have not been well studied in humans. High concentrations, usually indoors,
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can result in headache, drowsiness, cardiac arrhythmias, and in sufficient levels coma and death
(Health Canada, 1998). Chronic exposure studies of laboratory animals have revealed
physiological and behavioural changes such as impairment in time discrimination and consistent
trace metal loss (Health Canada, 1998). For further information pertaining to health effects that
may result from exposure to carbon monoxide, refer to Appendix I.
Air quality objectives, standards and guidelines for CO in BC, Canada, US, Washington State are
compared in Table 4-3. The current Canadian, BC and GVRD objectives are all equivalent and
they provide a range of values. The US 1-hour standards are less stringent than the Canadian
objectives. The US and proposed GVRD 8-hour criteria are less stringent than the Canadian
Maximum Desirable Objective and more stringent than the Canadian Maximum Acceptable
Objective. The BC Objectives were selected for evaluating the impact of predicted CO
concentrations.
Table 4-3: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for CO (mg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 1-HOUR 8-HOUR
Canada Maximum Desirable
Maximum Acceptable Maximum Tolerable
15 35 -
6 15 20
BC MWLAP/ GVRD
Level A Level B Level C
15 35 -
6 15 20
US EPA Standard 40 10
Washington State Standard 40 10
GVRD Proposed Objective 20 10
4.1.4 Particulate Matter
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is defined as an atmospheric particle with a diameter of
2.5 micrometers or less. PM2.5 concentrations result directly from combustion emissions (i.e.,
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primary emissions) and indirectly from the formation of sulphates and nitrates in the atmosphere
from SO2 and NOx emissions (i.e., secondary emissions). Fine particulate plays a primary role in
developing regional haze.
Inhalable particulate (PM10) is defined as any atmospheric particle with a diameter of
10 micrometers or less. PM10 is emitted from industrial, mobile and area sources, including road
dust, which results from travelling vehicles. Natural sources include wind-blown sand, soil,
forest fires, ocean spray and volcanic activity.
Total suspended particulate (TSP) consists of all size ranges of particulate matter suspended in
the atmosphere.
The main health effects of concern with PM exposure are affected pulmonary function, increased
respiratory symptoms and aggravation of existing heart and lung disease as measured by
increased physician visits, hospitalization and mortality (HEI, 2003; Burnett et al., 1997; Delfino
et al., 1997; Schwartz, 1994; Thurston et al., 1994). An increased risk of lung cancer mortality
has been identified more recently (Pope et al., 2002). Particulates in the lung also may impede
the natural ability of the respiratory system to clear itself of foreign matter and may affect other
body defence mechanisms. For further information pertaining to health effects that may result
from exposure to particulate matter, refer to Appendix I.
Air quality standards and objectives of different Canadian and US agencies for PM2.5 are
compared in Table 4-4. The CWS for PM2.5 is 30 µg/m3 as a 24-h average; achievement being
based on the average of monitors within an identified population center, the 98th percentile for a
year, averaged over 3 consecutive years. The most stringent criteria are the proposed GVRD
objectives; however they are not yet in force. Therefore, to evaluate the significance of the
impact of predicted PM2.5 concentrations, the CWS was selected for the 24-hour averaging
period and the US EPA standard was selected for the annual averaging period.
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Table 4-4: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for PM2.5 (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 24-HOUR ANNUAL
Canada-Wide Standard Target 30 -
US EPA Standard 65 15
Washington State Standard 65 15
California Air Resources Board Draft Standard - 12
GVRD Proposed Objective 25 12
Various standards and objectives for PM10 and TSP are presented in Table 4-5 and Table 4-6,
respectively. The GVRD objectives were selected for evaluating predicted PM10 concentrations
because there are objectives for both the daily and annual averaging periods, which are more
stringent than the US EPA or Washington State standards. The BC objectives were selected for
evaluating predicted TSP concentrations.
Table 4-5: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for PM10 (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 24-HOUR ANNUAL
GVRD Objectives Acceptable 50 30
BC MWLAP Objective 50 -
US EPA Standard 150 50
Washington State Standard 150 50
California Air Resources Board Standard 50 20
GVRD Proposed Objective 50 20
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Table 4-6: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for TSP (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 24-HOUR ANNUAL
Canada
Maximum Desirable Maximum Acceptable Maximum Tolerable
- 120 400
60 70 -
BC MWLAP Level A Level B Level C
150 200 260
60 70 75
Washington State Standard 150 60
4.1.5 Ozone
Ozone is a reactive form of oxygen that is a strong oxidizer and can irritate the eyes, nose and
throat and decrease athletic performance. Ozone is usually not directly discharged to the air.
Rather it is produced by photochemical reactions of anthropogenic NOx, anthropogenic VOC,
and biogenic VOC emissions.
Air quality objectives and standards for ozone are listed in Table 4-7. The Canada-wide
Standard (CWS) for O3 is 65 ppb (130 µg/m3) as an eight-hour average; achievement being
based on the 4th highest value for a year, averaged over 3 consecutive years. In determining
compliance, natural sources or long-range contributions can be discounted. Ambient ozone
concentrations were not predicted for this study; rather the potential formation of ozone was
semi-quantitatively assessed based on total emissions of ozone precursors. As such, the potential
impact of secondary ozone formation was evaluated relative to total ozone precursor emissions
in the RSA.
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Table 4-7: Relevant Air Quality Objectives, Standards and Guidelines for Ozone (µg/m3)
JURISDICTION LEVEL 1-HOUR 8-HOUR 24-HOUR ANNUAL
Canada Maximum Desirable
Maximum Acceptable 100 160
- -
30 50
30
Canada-Wide Standard Target - 130 - -
US EPA Standard 240 160 - -
Washington State Standard 240 - - -
GVRD Proposed Objective 160 130 - -
4.2 METHODOLOGY
4.2.1 Overall Approach
A standard assessment approach was used to define air quality changes associated with the
specified assessment scenarios. The steps in this approach are summarized as follows:
• Review ambient air quality observations to define background air quality;
• Identify and quantify the emission sources for each assessment scenario;
• Use dispersion models to predict ambient concentrations due to emissions associated with
each assessment scenario;
• Compare the predictions with ambient air quality criteria; and
• Compare scenario results to determine the incremental air quality changes due to the
Project and express them as a percent change.
This approach is summarized in Table 4-8.
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Table 4-8: Summary of Air Quality Assessment Approach
COMPONENT OF APPROACH DESCRIPTION
Source Characterization
Characterization of emission sources focuses primarily on identifying combustion sources and estimating their emissions of SO2, NOx, CO, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) and Diesel PM2.5 since emissions of these compounds are forecast to increase due to the Project. Combustion source characterization requires information on the source attributes. These include properties such as: area where emissions occur, source height, pollutant emission rates and temporal variation. Source characterization data were produced for the four assessment scenarios as described in Appendix A.
Terrestrial Characterization
Terrain elevations for the nominal 30 km by 30 km LSA were obtained from two digital elevation databases. Data for the Canadian side were obtained from the Canadian Digital Elevation Database 1:50,000 scale map sheets. At the latitude of the LSA these data have a resolution of approximately 3 arc seconds or about 20 m. Data for the US side were obtained from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Digital Terrain Elevation Data 1:250,000 map sheet archives. These elevation data have a resolution of approximately 12 arc seconds or about 100 m. Each of these resolutions should be sufficient for use in air quality modelling. Land use files for BC were obtained from 1:250,000 scale Baseline Thematic Mapping format files from the BC Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management. Washington State land use information was obtained from 1:250,000 USGS format map sheets.
Representative Meteorology
The CALMET meteorological model was used to predict temporally and spatially dependent wind, temperature and turbulence fields. The CALMET model simulation was based on data from 6 surface stations and soundings from two upper air stations. The surface stations included stations T13, T17, T18 and T31 from the GVRD monitoring network, the MSC station at Vancouver International Airport and local wind speed and direction measured at Westshore Terminals. The two upper air stations included were Port Hardy on Vancouver Island and Quillayute in Washington State. (Appendix C)
Model Ambient Concentrations
The CALPUFF model was used to calculate ambient air quality changes for the assessment scenarios. The code, documentation and guidelines for the selection and application of the model are available from US EPA website (2004) as well as the applicable model manual (Scire et al., 2000). The CALPUFF model and the associated predictions have been accepted by the BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection.
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COMPONENT OF APPROACH DESCRIPTION
Model Ambient Concentrations
The CALPUFF model was applied to the 30 km by 30 km LSA. Noteworthy items include: • A total of 2,898 receptors with an increased grid density surrounding the
Project area were selected. Grid densities vary from 100 m to 1 km, depending on distance from the Project area;
• An additional 16 community, wildlife and recreation locations were selected; • Predicted concentrations are presented as contours superimposed over the
LSA base map; and • Concentrations of criteria contaminants, VOCs and metals predicted at
community, wildlife and recreation receptors are presented in tabular formats and are provided for 1-h, 24-h and annual averaging periods in Appendix F.
Further details regarding the application of CALPUFF are provided in Appendix D.
Presentation Limitations
Model predictions are shown as a series of contours superimposed over base maps to provide an indication of spatial variability. Contours that are presented in the figures have smoothed 100 m resolution. As an artifact of the gridding algorithm there may be differences between peak values given in tables and those inferred from contour plots. Priority is given to values provided in tables.
4.2.2 Method for Determining Baseline Air Quality
The assessment of baseline air quality conditions is based on the review of ambient monitoring
data and the application of dispersion modelling as complementary tools. The monitoring
accounts for the sources that were operating during the period when monitoring was conducted
(i.e., 1999 to 2003). The Existing Baseline scenario accounts for existing (2003) emissions from
background sources whereas the Projected 2011 Baseline scenario accounts for future (2011)
emissions from these sources. A review of the ambient monitoring data is provided in Appendix
B. The review is also summarized in Section 4.4.1.
4.2.3 Representative Background Values
To assess the cumulative effects of air emissions from a project it is necessary to include the
contribution of emissions from other sources in the study area. This can be done either by
adding a representative observed ambient concentration or by modelling all possible background
sources.
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There is considerable debate regarding what constitutes a representative background value that
should be added to predicted concentrations. The most conservative approach is to add the
maximum observed concentration to predicted concentrations. This assumes that the worst case
predicted concentrations would occur at the same time and be associated with the same
meteorological conditions, including wind direction, as the worst case observed concentrations.
This approach is most appropriate when no background sources have been included in the
modelling. When background sources have been included in the modelling, this approach
effectively double-counts those sources. Furthermore, this approach is problematic when the
maximum observed concentration exceeds or approaches ambient criteria. In such cases, a
percentile value, such as the 98th or 95th percentile observed concentration, is often used rather
than the maximum concentration.
Another approach that has been adopted in Alberta is to include in the modelling all major
background sources located within the study area and to add the annual average observed
concentration to represent other background sources such as roads or surface heating.
For this study, we included in the modelling all major sources of emissions within the LSA
(Deltaport, Westshore Terminal, and Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal) and then we added the 98th
percentile observed ambient concentrations to represent minor sources of emissions inside the
LSA that were not included in the modelling (e.g., space heating, roadways, agricultural sources)
and other sources located outside of the LSA. This is a very conservative approach and is
consistent with the approach taken in recent air quality impact assessments for major projects in
BC including the Vancouver Island Generation Project (VIGP) and the Golden Ears Bridge
(Fraser River Crossing) Project. For annual averaging periods it was not possible to calculate a
98th percentile value and therefore the five-year annual average was used.
This approach is likely too conservative for PM because the main sources of PM emissions in the
LSA are located at Roberts Bank Port and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal and will result in high
concentrations on land only when the wind is blowing from the northwest to southwest but
elevated observed PM concentrations are associated with winds from the east. Therefore, it is
not physically possible for the worst-case predicted PM concentrations to occur at the same time
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as the worst-case observed PM concentrations. This argument is also applicable to SO2
emissions although the observed concentrations are so low as to not be an issue.
Results of the ambient air quality analysis provided in Appendix B indicate that observations
made at the three continuous monitoring stations: T2, T17 and T31 are fairly similar. It was
decided that the Richmond South station (T17), which is located within the LSA, is the most
representative of ambient air quality within the LSA. Therefore T17 data were used to develop
representative background values for all contaminants apart from PM2.5, which is not monitored
at T17. Data from T31 were used for PM2.5. Representative 98th percentile and 5-year annual
average background values that were added to predicted concentrations are listed in Table 4-9.
No data were available for total VOCs in the LSA and therefore a background VOC value was
not added to predicted concentrations.
Table 4-9: Representative Background Values Added to Predicted Concentrations
CONTAMINANT 1-HR 8-HR 24-HR ANNUAL
98TH PERCENTILE 98TH PERCENTILE 98TH PERCENTILE 5-YEAR AVERAGE
SO2 a 10.5 n/a 6.8 2.4 NOX a,d 431 n/a 330 76.4
CO a 2,634 2,276 n/a 610 PM2.5 b n/a n/a 15.6 5.4 PM10 a n/a n/a 26.9 13.3 TSP c n/a n/a 46.0 22.9
a Data is for five years of ambient monitoring between 1999 and 2003 at GVRD station T17. b Data is for five years of ambient monitoring between 1999 and 2003 at GVRD station T31. c Non continuous data from 1999 to 2002 at GVRD station T17 were used, for a total of 234 24-hr average samples. d For NO2, the background NOx concentration was added to the predicted NOx concentration and the resulting total NOx concentration was converted to NO2.
4.2.4 Determination of Impact Significance
Impact is often described in terms of the descriptors provided in Table 4-10. The descriptors in
this table have been adapted to assess changes relative to ambient air quality. As indicated in
Table 3-1, the ambient air quality parameters are described in terms of pollutant emissions
(expressed in t/d) and ambient concentrations (expressed in µg/m3). These parameters are highly
variable and can change significantly in time and space depending on the level of activity of the
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emission source and on the meteorology. The maximum predicted changes are often compared
to ambient air quality criteria (e.g., as in Table 4-1 to Table 4-7), where applicable. Comments
relative to the general descriptors provided in Table 4-10 are as follows:
• Direction: Direction addresses the expected change without regard for the magnitude of
the change. The direction is interpreted as being adverse (i.e., negative) if there are any
increases of the air quality parameters listed in Table 3-1.
• Areal Extent: Generally, air quality changes decrease with increasing distance from the
emission source. If the expected measurable changes are limited to the project footprint
the areal extent is considered to be immediate. If the expected measurable changes are
limited to the LSA the areal extent is interpreted as being local. If the expected
measurable changes extend beyond the LSA but are still confined to the RSA they are
interpreted as being regional. If the expected changes could extend beyond the RSA, such
as the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, they are interpreted as being global in extent.
• Magnitude: Dispersion models, being comprised of mathematical relationships, can
provide a level of precision that will exceed what can be measured. There is no
monitoring system in place that can measure a change of 1% in any parameter that is
meaningful, i.e. that can be discerned from noise. Typically, ambient measurements are
viewed as being the same if they are within 10 to 15% of each other. Therefore, the
characterization of an air quality impact as moderate if the prediction indicates a change
of 1% in an air quality parameter is not appropriate. On the other hand, use of a 10 to
15% cut off between low and moderate impacts is viewed as being counter to the
philosophy of Keeping Clean Areas Clean. Therefore, a midpoint was chosen for this
assessment, wherein a change of 5% or less is rated as low. A change of 1% or less is
rated as negligible. A change greater than 5% and less than or equal to 10% but not
resulting in the exceedance of an existing Objective or Canada-wide Standard over land
was rated as moderate. A high magnitude rating is used when an air quality parameter
exceeds an existing Objective or Canada-wide Standard over land or when the predicted
change is greater than 10%.
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• Duration and Frequency: Air quality changes can be described in terms of duration and
frequency. While emissions to the atmosphere will occur for the full duration of the
Project, changes in air quality will have significant temporal variability due to the natural
variability in meteorology (wind speed, wind direction, temperature etc.) and also
variability in equipment load, which is often less than 100%. Also, the secondary
formation of some compounds can be seasonal in nature due to variability in meteorology
and biogenic emissions.
• Reversibility: Air quality changes tend to be reversible through natural processes once a
project terminates. Human intervention, such as planting trees to act as carbon sinks, can
accelerate the process.
• Confidence: The level of confidence with predicting air quality changes depends on the
representativeness of the source characterization (e.g., emission rates), the meteorological
characterization (e.g., transport and dispersion), chemical transformation (e.g., reaction
rates), and on the model capability. The confidence rating is based on the assumption
that, while dispersion models have limitations towards the prediction of an individual
event, they provide reasonable predictions for air quality assessment purposes given
representative input data.
• Final Impact Rating: A final rating integrates the individual descriptor ratings and is
based on subjective and professional judgment. The judgment accounts for the relative
change and the absolute value along with spatial and temporal variability. The judgment
is made with respect to the ambient air quality criteria. The final rating provided in this
section refers to the change in concentration only and does not account for the receptor
response. The receptor response aspect is discussed in the human health section.
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Table 4-10: Impact Assessment Descriptors as Applied to Ambient Air Quality Changes
DIRECTION AREAL EXTENT MAGNITUDE DURATION FREQUENCY REVERSIBILITY CONFIDENCE FINAL RATING
Positive: The emission, ambient concentration, or deposition change is expected to decrease.
Immediate: Effects are limited to the Project footprint.
Negligible: The expected emission, ambient concentration, or deposition change is expected to be less than 1%.
Short-term: Predicted impact persists no longer than five years.
Infrequent: Predicted impact occurs only a few hours a year. Variable exposure due to meteorology or upset conditions.
Irreversible: Predicted impact is not reversible through natural process or human intervention and does not diminish with time.
Low: There are limitations with the model approach or with the input data that compromise the ability to predict meaningful results and/or trends.
Low: professional judgment.
Neutral: The emission, ambient concentration, or deposition is expected to remain the same.
Local: The expected measurable changes are confined to the local study area (LSA).
Low: The expected emission, ambient concentration, or deposition change is expected to be less than 5%.
Mid-term: Predicted impact persists to the end of the operational life of the Project.
Seasonal: Measured or estimated impact occurs during a clearly defined season(s).
Reversible: Predicted impact is reversible through natural process or human intervention and diminishes with time.
Moderate: The modelling approach is standardized and the model has been evaluated. The input data are extrapolated.
Moderate: professional judgment.
Negative: The emission, ambient concentration, or deposition change is expected to increase.
Regional: The expected measurable changes extend beyond the LSA but are within the regional study area (RSA).
Moderate: The expected emission, ambient concentration or deposition change is expected to be more than 5% but less than or equal to 10%.
Long-term: Predicted impact is measurable for more than two years beyond the end of the operational life of the Project.
Continuous: Predicted impact occurs continuously and is associated with annual average periods.
High: The modelling approach is standardized and the model has been evaluated. The input data are viewed as representative.
High: professional judgment.
Global: The expected impacts have a global consequence.
High: The expected emission, ambient concentration or deposition change is greater than 10% or is expected to exceed relevant criteria over land.
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4.3 METEOROLOGY
The CALMET model was used to provide three-dimensionally varying wind, temperature, and
turbulence fields for use by the CALPUFF model. The CALMET model results are based on:
• Surface station measurements from 4 GRVD stations, the MSC station at Vancouver
International Airport and from Westshore Terminals (see Table 4-11).
• Upper air profiles from Port Hardy in BC and Quillayute in Washington State.
• Digital terrain elevation and land use information for southwest BC and northwest
Washington State.
Although CALMET can be initialized with prognostic meteorological fields from models such as
MC2 and MM5, no such fields were available that coincided with the availability of data from
the surface stations listed above. Because no prognostic model fields were used, the model was
initialised each hour using a distance weighted average of all data included. Surface and upper
air stations used in the modelling are listed in Table 5-1.
CALMET fields were prepared for the year 2003 because this is the most recent year for which
data were available. Only one year of data was processed, rather than the three to five years
indicated in the Work Plan, due to substantial computational requirements to model multiple line
and area sources that were not foreseen when the Work Plan was prepared (e.g., modelling one
scenario using one year of meteorological data required 7 to 10 days of computational time).
Detailed information regarding the CALMET model is provided in Appendix C. A summary of
the meteorological observations used to drive the CALMET model is provided in the next
sections.
4.3.1 Observed Surface Winds
Figure 4-1 through Figure 4-6 show observed surface wind roses for each surface station
included in the modelling. Stations on the lowland plains of Richmond, namely YVR, T17 and
T31, show similar patterns (Figure 4-1 to Figure 4-3). Dominant wind direction is easterly, with
a smaller component from the west, and very little wind from either the north or south. This
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pattern is well described for surface layer wind in the Greater Vancouver region (Oke and Hay,
1994) and is likely the result of the offshore component of the sea breeze cycle combined with
drainage flows along the Fraser Delta toward the ocean away from higher terrain to the east.
Winds from the east tend to have lower speeds and higher speeds are associated with the less
frequent westerly component.
Table 4-11: Surface and Upper Air Stations used for CALMET
Contribution of LSA Existing Baseline to RSA Total (%) 2.3 0.07 3.2 0.08 0.91 1.37 0.69 1 Based on Tables A-1 through A-11 of GVRD Forecast and Backcast of the 2000 Emissions Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed 1985-2025
The largest source of NOx, CO and VOC emissions is the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal at 1,199,
145 and 46 t/yr, respectively, which represent 53%, 45% and 51% of total NOx, CO and VOC
emissions for the Existing Baseline scenario. The largest source of SO2 emissions is the
Deltaport Terminal, emitting 328 t/yr or 55% of total SO2 emissions. The next biggest source of
SO2 emissions is Westshore Terminals, which emits 218 t/yr or 36% of total SO2 emissions
modelled for the Existing Baseline Scenario. Deltaport is the largest source of PM2.5 (54 t/yr)
but Westshore Terminals is the largest source of PM10 (55 t/yr) and TSP (94 t/yr).
Emissions included in the Existing Baseline inventory for the LSA are compared to total
emissions in the RSA compiled by the GVRD for the year 2000. Emissions included in the
Existing Baseline inventory represent between 0.07% and 3.2% of total emissions in the RSA
depending on the contaminant.
4.4.3 Predicted Air Quality
Hourly, daily and annual average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and VOC were predicted for the
Existing Baseline scenario as well as one- and eight-hour average CO concentrations and daily
and annual PM2.5, PM10 and TSP concentrations. These averaging periods were selected for the
various pollutants because they coincide with the periods for which there are ambient air quality
criteria.
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Maximum concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO and VOC predicted to occur on land, with and
without background ambient concentrations added, are compared to ambient criteria in Table
4-14. The maximum predicted concentrations are all less than ambient criteria. Maximum PM
concentrations predicted to occur on land are compared to ambient criteria in Table 4-15. Model
results for the Existing Baseline are discussed in greater detail in the following sections.
Maximum concentrations predicted to occur at specific receptors used for the human health risk
assessment are presented in Appendix F.
4.4.3.1 Sulphur Dioxide
Isopleths (i.e., contours of constant concentration) of maximum hourly SO2 concentrations
predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are illustrated in Figure 4-14 (note that
concentrations shown in the figures do not include the 98th percentile ambient background
value). The highest concentration predicted on land is 197 µg/m3, which is well below the BC
Level A objective of 450 µg/m3. When the 98th percentile observed SO2 concentration is added
to represent background sources not included in the modelling, the maximum concentration plus
background is 208 µg/m3, which is also less than the Level A objective. The maximum hourly
SO2 concentration is predicted to occur approximately 6 km to the northeast of the project,
midway between Deltaport Road to the south and the community of Ladner to the north. Similar
concentrations are also predicted to occur over water to the northeast and southwest of Roberts
Bank Port.
Figure 4-15 presents isopleths of maximum daily SO2 concentrations predicted for the Existing
Baseline scenario. The maximum daily SO2 concentration predicted on land is 15 µg/m3, which
is about one tenth of the BC Level A objective, equal to 160 µg/m3. The maximum predicted
concentration plus the background value is 22 µg/m3, which is also much less than the BC Level
A objective. The maximum concentration is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway.
Higher concentrations are predicted to occur over water to the southeast of Roberts Bank Port.
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Table 4-14: Maximum SO2, NO2, CO and VOC Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the Existing Baseline
Scenario
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) SO2 NO2 CO VOC
BC Level A Objective2 450 160 25 - - 60 14,300 5,500 - - - BC Level B Objective2 900 260 50 400 200 100 28,000 11,000 - - - GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30 200 100 60 20,000 10,000 - - - US EPA Standard - 365 80 - - 100 40,000 10,000 - - - Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52 40,000 10,000 - - -
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in the model. Ambient VOC data were not available for the LSA and therefore no background value was added to predicted VOC concentrations. 2 The objectives shown for NO2 are federal not provincial.
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Table 4-15: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the Existing Baseline Scenario
PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) PM2.5 PM10 TSP SCENARIO OR AMBIENT
GUIDELINE 98th Percentile 24-h
Maximum 24-h
Annual Maximum 24-h
Annual Maximum 24-h
Annual
Existing Baseline 5 8 1 8 1 9 1 Existing Baseline + Background1 20 24 6 35 14 55 24 Canada-wide Standard 30 - - - - - - BC Level A objective - - - 50 - 150 60 BC Level B Objective - - - - - 200 70 GVRD Trigger Level - - - 50 30 - - GVRD Proposed Objective 25 25 12 50 20 - - US EPA Standard - 65 15 150 50 - - Washington State Standard - 65 15 150 50 150 60
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in model
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Annual average SO2 concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are depicted in
Figure 4-16. The maximum predicted annual SO2 concentration is 3 µg/m3. When the 98th
percentile observed concentration is added to represent background sources not included in the
modelling, the maximum is 5 µg/m3, which is less than the BC Level A objective, equal to
25 µg/m3. The maximum annual average SO2 concentration is predicted to occur on the Roberts
Bank Causeway. Predicted annual SO2 concentrations on the mainland are all less than 1 µg/m3.
4.4.3.2 Nitrogen Dioxide
Isopleths of maximum hourly average NO2 concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline
scenario are illustrated in Figure 4-17. The maximum hourly NO2 concentration predicted on
land is 111 µg/m3. When the 98th percentile observed NOx concentration is added to the
maximum predicted concentration to represent background sources not included in the
modelling, the maximum predicted plus background concentration is 131 µg/m3, well below the
BC Level A objective of 400 µg/m3. The maximum is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank
Causeway. Higher concentrations are predicted over water in the vicinity of Roberts Bank Port
and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. Maximum predicted concentrations on the mainland are all
less than 100 µg/m3.
Maximum daily average NO2 concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are
illustrated in Figure 4-18. The highest concentration predicted on land is 52 µg/m3 and occurs on
the Roberts Bank Causeway. The maximum predicted concentration plus the background value
is 85 µg/m3. This concentration is less than the Canadian Acceptable Objective (200 µg/m3).
Higher concentrations are predicted over water in the near vicinity of Roberts Bank Port and the
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. Maximum predicted daily average NO2 concentrations on the
mainland are all less than 40 µg/m3.
Figure 4-19 illustrates annual average NO2 concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline
scenario. The maximum annual concentration, equal to 10 µg/m3, is predicted to occur at the
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. The maximum annual concentration including a background NOx
value is 40 µg/m3. This concentration is less than the Canadian Desirable Objective, equal to 60
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µg/m3. The maximum predicted annual average NO2 concentrations on the mainland are less
than 5 µg/m3.
4.4.3.3 Carbon Monoxide
Isopleths of maximum one-hour average CO concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline
scenario are illustrated in Figure 4-20. The maximum one-hour average CO concentration
predicted on land is 135 µg/m3. The maximum predicted concentration plus the background
value is 2,769 µg/m3, well below the BC Level A Objective, equal to 14,300 µg/m3. The
maximum concentration is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway.
Maximum eight-hour average CO concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are
shown in Figure 4-21. The maximum concentration predicted over land is 58 µg/m3. When a
background value is added the maximum concentration is 2,334 µg/m3, which is less than the BC
Level A Objective, equal to 5,500 µg/m3. The maximum eight-hour average CO concentration is
predicted to occur at the same location as the maximum hourly average concentration, on the
Roberts Bank Causeway.
For both one-hour and eight-hour CO, the predicted concentrations are an order of magnitude
less than the corresponding 98th percentile background values.
4.4.3.4 Particulate Matter
Isopleths of 98th percentile daily PM2.5 predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are illustrated
in Figure 4-22. The highest 98th percentile PM2.5 concentration predicted to occur on land is
5 µg/m3. The highest 98th percentile concentration including the background value is 20 µg/m3,
which is less than the Canada-wide Standard, equal to 30 µg/m3. This concentration is predicted
to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway. On the mainland, predicted 98th percentile daily PM2.5
concentrations are less than 3 µg/m3. Higher concentrations are predicted to occur over water.
The maximum daily PM2.5 concentration predicted over land for the Existing Baseline scenario is
8 µg/m3. This concentration is also predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway. When a
background value is added the maximum concentration is 24 µg/m3, which is less than the
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Washington State standard of 65 µg/m3. All maximum daily average PM2.5 concentrations
predicted to occur on the mainland are less than 10 µg/m3.
The maximum annual average PM2.5 concentration predicted over land for the Existing Baseline
scenario is 1 µg/m3, and also occurs on the Roberts Bank Causeway. When the background
value is added the maximum annual average PM2.5 concentration is 6 µg/m3, which is less than
the Washington State standard, equal to 15 µg/m3.
Isopleths of maximum predicted daily PM10 concentrations are illustrated in Figure 4-23. The
maximum concentration predicted over land, 8 µg/m3, is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank
Causeway. Higher concentrations are predicted to occur over water in the vicinity of Roberts
Bank Port and the Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal. When the background value is added the
maximum PM10 concentration is 35 µg/m3, which is less than the BC Objective, equal to
50 µg/m3. As discussed in Section 4.2.3, adding a background value equal to the 98th percentile
to predicted PM concentrations may be overly conservative because elevated ambient PM
concentrations tend to be associated with winds from the east whereas maximum predicted
concentrations on land tend to be associated with winds from the west.
As was the case for daily PM10, the maximum annual PM10 concentration over land for the
Existing Baseline scenario, equal to 1 µg/m3, is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank
Causeway. The sum of the 98th percentile observed ambient PM10 concentration and the
predicted concentration is 14 µg/m3.
The maximum daily and annual average TSP concentrations predicted to occur on land for the
Existing Baseline scenario are 9 and 1 µg/m3, respectively. When the appropriate background
values are added to these predicted concentrations the resultant maximum daily and annual
average TSP concentrations are 55 and 24 µg/m3, respectively. These concentrations are less than
the BC Level A objectives for daily and annual average TSP, equal to 150 and 60 µg/m3,
respectively. The maximum predicted daily average TSP concentrations are only 1 µg/m3
greater than the maximum predicted PM10 concentrations because the TSP and PM10 emissions
for the Existing Baseline scenario are very similar. The TSP isopleth maps are also very similar
to the PM10 isopleth maps and therefore are not presented.
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4.4.3.5 Volatile Organic Compounds
Total VOC concentrations were predicted for hourly, daily and annual averaging periods. The
total concentrations were then speciated, as described in Appendix D, to determine maximum
hourly and annual average concentrations for individual VOC at specific receptors for the human
health risk assessment. Maximum VOC concentrations predicted to occur at sensitive receptors
are provided in Appendix F. Ambient observations of total VOC were not available for the LSA
and therefore background values were not added to predicted concentrations.
Figure 4-24 illustrates isopleths of maximum hourly total VOC concentrations. The overall
maximum concentration is 22 µg/m3 and was predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway.
Higher concentrations are predicted over water in the immediate vicinity of the Robert Bank
Port.
4.4.4 Conclusion
From 1999 to 2003 the air quality in the RSA was characterized as 'Good' 97% of the time or
more every year. During the same period, exceedances of ambient air quality criteria were
observed in the LSA only for PM2.5 and PM10 and these exceedances were attributed by the
GVRD to Halloween activities. Observed concentrations of all other criteria pollutants in the
LSA were less than air quality objectives.
All maximum ground-level concentrations predicted for the Existing Baseline scenario are less
than relevant Canada-wide Standards and the most stringent BC Objectives. With the exception
of SO2, higher predicted concentrations are limited to the area immediately surrounding the
Roberts Bank Port, with much lower concentrations predicted over the mainland. Due to the fact
that a large fraction of SO2 is emitted as elevated point sources associated with dockside ship
emissions, maximum impacts from SO2 are seen some distance away from their sources at either
the Roberts Bank Port or Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal, though predicted concentrations on land
are still well below the applicable air quality standards and objectives.
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4.5 PROJECT CONSTRUCTION
The construction of the Deltaport Third Berth is scheduled to begin in October of 2005 and to be
completed by the end of 2008. The highest construction activity and emissions will occur in
2006 and therefore this year was selected for modelling. Construction years 2005, 2007 and
2008 will have lower emissions. Emissions from Deltaport, Westshore Terminal, and
Tsawwassen Ferry Terminal are assumed to be the same as those for the Existing Baseline.
4.5.1 Emissions Inventory
Emissions for the Project Construction scenario are summarized in Table 4-16. The percentage
increase in emissions due to Project Construction relative to Existing Baseline emissions varies
from 0.9 to 40%. However, these percentages are based on maximum emissions during the
construction period and therefore represent the maximum increase in emissions due to Project
Construction. Furthermore, the Existing Baseline emissions inventory does not include sources
such as roads, space heating, and greenhouses and therefore the relative increase is exaggerated.
For all contaminants, the incremental increase in emissions due to Project Construction is less
than 1% of total emissions from all sources in the RSA.
Table 4-16: Summary of Emissions (t/yr) Included in the Project Construction Scenario
SCENARIO FACILITY/EMISSION SOURCE NOX CO SO2 VOC PM10 PM2.5 TSP Existing Baseline All sources 2,249 321 596 90 139 123 178 Project Construction Construction sources alone 339 96 6 36 16 16 16 Project Construction +
BC Level A objective2 450 160 25 - - 60 14,300 5,500 - - - BC Level B Objective2 900 260 50 400 200 100 28,000 11,000 - - - GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30 200 100 60 20,000 10,000 - - - US EPA Standard - 365 80 - - 100 40,000 10,000 - - - Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52 40,000 10,000 - - -
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in the model. Ambient VOC data were not available for the LSA and therefore background values were not added to predicted VOC concentrations. 2 The objectives shown for NO2 are Canadian not provincial.
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Table 4-18: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the Project Construction
Scenario
PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) PM2.5 PM10 TSP SCENARIO OR AMBIENT GUIDELINE
BC Level A Objective2 450 160 25 - - 60 14,300 5,500 - - - BC Level B Objective2 900 260 50 400 200 100 28,000 11,000 - - - GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30 200 100 60 20,000 10,000 - - - US EPA Standard - 365 80 - - 100 40,000 10,000 - - - Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52 40,000 10,000 - - -
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in the model. Ambient VOC data were not available for the LSA and therefore background values were not added to predicted VOC concentrations. 2 The objectives shown for NO2 are Canadian not provincial.
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Table 4-21: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the Project Operation Scenario
PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) PM2.5 PM10 TSP SCENARIO OR AMBIENT GUIDELINE
Subtotal 2,176 303 507 86 133 117 172 Project Operation 188 133 57 15 13 13 13 CEA Total 2,364 435 563 101 146 130 185 % Change due to Project Operation relative to Projected 2011 Baseline 8.6 44 11 18 10 11 7.7
2010 RSA Total 1 81,784 452,321 20,278 99,819 15,636 8,934 26,336 % Change due to Project Operation relative to 2010 RSA Total 0.23 0.03 0.28 0.02 0.08 0.14 0.05 1 Based on Tables A-1 through A-11 of GVRD Forecast and Backcast of the 2000 Emissions Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed 1985-2025
Impact ratings for emissions changes due to Project Operation are summarized in Table 4-23.
The direction of the change in emissions due to Project Operation is negative and on an LSA
basis the magnitude is moderate to high depending upon the contaminant. On an RSA basis the
magnitude is negligible. The geographic extent is local, the duration is mid-term, the frequency
is continuous, and the change is reversible. The final rating is Low because the calculation of the
magnitude of the increase on an LSA basis did not include all sources in the LSA and because
the magnitude of the increase is negligible on an RSA basis.
4.7.2 Predicted Air Quality
Hourly, daily and annual average concentrations of SO2, NO2 and VOC were predicted for the
CEA scenario as well as one- and eight-hour average CO concentrations and daily and annual
PM2.5, PM10 and TSP concentrations.
The incremental impact of Project Operation emissions on ambient air quality was determined by
including in the modelling emissions from background sources projected to the year 2011 (i.e.,
the Projected 2011 Baseline). In addition, 98th percentile observed concentrations were added to
the model predictions. Comparing Project emissions to the Projected 2011 Baseline is a more
realistic approach than comparing them to the Existing Baseline because the Projected 2011
Baseline incorporates changes in emissions that have a high probability, such as increases in
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background traffic and the implementation of legislation regarding improved engine efficiency
and fuel quality. As discussed in the previous section, emissions in the LSA are expected to be
less than existing emissions. Therefore, while the absolute value of predicted concentrations will
be less for the CEA scenario compared to Project Operation plus Existing Baseline, the relative
change in ambient air quality due to Project emissions will be greater for the CEA scenario.
Table 4-23: Impact Ratings for Emission Changes due to Project Operation
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative The Project will increase pollutant emissions to the atmosphere.
Geographic Extent Local By definition, these emissions are confined to the local study area LSA.
Magnitude Negligible to High
On an RSA basis the change in emissions due to the Project is negligible. On an LSA basis, increases in NOx, SO2, PM10, and TSP are greater than 5% but less than 10% (Moderate). Increases in CO, VOC and PM2.5 are greater than 10% (High).
Duration Mid-term Air emissions will continue through to the end of the operational life of the Project.
Frequency Continuous Emissions due to the Project will be continuous although they may have temporal variations.
Reversibility Reversible Air emissions from the Project will cease at the end of the life of the Project.
Confidence High The most current US EPA models for non-road (Nonroad 2004) and mobile sources (Mobile 6.2C) were applied. Detailed activity information was available for the Project.
Final Rating Low The magnitude of emission changes due to the Project varies from moderate to high relative to total emissions in the LSA but not all background emission sources were included. On an RSA basis the change in emissions due to the Project is negligible.
Maximum concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO and VOC predicted to occur on land for the CEA
scenario, with and without background ambient concentrations added, are compared to predicted
concentrations for the Projected 2011 Baseline scenario and to ambient criteria in Table 4-24.
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Maximum PM concentrations predicted to occur on land are compared to ambient criteria in
Table 4-25. Model results for the CEA scenario are discussed in the following sections.
Maximum concentrations predicted to occur at specific receptors used for the human health risk
assessment are presented in Appendix F.
For all contaminants and averaging times, isopleths for the CEA scenario are very similar to
those described earlier for the Project plus Existing Baseline, with CEA predictions slightly
reduced due to reduction in emissions for the Projected 2011 Baseline versus the Existing
Baseline. Similarly, the differences between the CEA and Projected 2011 Baseline are roughly
analogous to those described earlier between the Existing Baseline and the Project plus Existing
Baseline scenarios.
4.7.2.1 Sulphur Dioxide
Isopleths of maximum hourly SO2 concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are shown in
Figure 4-45. The maximum hourly SO2 concentration predicted on land is 214 µg/m3. When the
background value is added the maximum increases to 224 µg/m3, which is less than the BC Level
A Objective (450 µg/m3). The maximum concentration is predicted to occur in the same location
as for the other scenarios, approximately 6 km northeast of the Roberts Bank Port. As indicated
in Table 4-24, the increase in the maximum predicted hourly SO2 concentration relative to the
Projected 2011 Baseline Scenario is 13%.
Figure 4-46 illustrates isopleths of maximum daily SO2 concentrations predicted for the CEA
scenario. The maximum daily SO2 concentration predicted on land is 14 µg/m3 and occurs
midway along and just to the north of the east-west section of Deltaport Road. When the
background value is added the maximum concentration is 21 µg/m3, which is less than the BC
Level A Objective (160 µg/m3). The increase in the maximum predicted concentration relative
to the Projected 2011 Baseline Scenario is 10% (see Table 4-24). Slightly higher concentrations
are predicted over water near the Roberts Bank Port.
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Table 4-24: Maximum SO2, NO2, CO and VOC Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the CEA Scenario
MAXIMUM PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) SO2 NO2 CO VOC
BC Level A Objective2 450 160 25 - - 60 14,300 5,500 - - - BC Level B Objective2 900 260 50 400 200 100 28,000 11,000 - - - GVRD Proposed Objective 450 125 30 200 100 60 20,000 10,000 - - - US EPA Standard - 365 80 - - 100 40,000 10,000 - - - Washington State Standard 1,040 260 52 40,000 10,000 - - -
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in the model. Ambient VOC data were not available for the LSA and therefore background values were not added to predicted VOC concentrations. 2 The objectives shown for NO2 are federal not provincial.
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Table 4-25: Maximum PM2.5, PM10 and TSP Concentrations Predicted to Occur on Land for the CEA Scenario
PREDICTED CONCENTRATIONS (µg/m3) PM2.5 PM10 TSP SCENARIO OR AMBIENT GUIDELINE
Canada-wide Standard 30 - - - - - - BC Level A Objective - - - 50 - 150 60 BC Level B Objective - - - - - 200 70 GVRD Trigger Level - - - 50 30 - - GVRD Proposed Objective 25 25 12 50 20 - - US EPA Standard - 65 15 150 50 - - Washington State Standard - 65 15 150 50 150 60
1 98th percentile observed ambient concentrations were added to represent background sources not included in the model.
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Annual average SO2 concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are depicted in Figure 4-47.
The maximum annual SO2 concentration predicted on land is 2 µg/m3 and occurs on the Roberts
Bank Causeway. When the background value is added, the maximum annual SO2 concentration
is 5 µg/m3. This concentration is much less than the BC Level A Objective, equal to 25 µg/m3.
Table 4-24 indicates that the increase in the maximum predicted concentration due to Project
Operation emissions relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline Scenario is 14%.
Impact ratings for SO2 concentration changes due to the Project are provided in Table 4-26. The
final rating is Moderate because the increase in ambient SO2 concentrations relative to the
Projected 2011 Baseline varies from 10 to 14%, which is rated as a high magnitude. However,
maximum predicted concentrations on land are less than half the BC Level A Objectives for all
averaging periods. Furthermore, elevated concentrations will occur infrequently.
4.7.2.2 Nitrogen Dioxide
Figure 4-48 illustrates isopleths of maximum hourly NO2 concentrations predicted for the CEA
scenario. The maximum concentration predicted on land is 110 µg/m3 and occurs on the Roberts
Bank Causeway. The maximum predicted hourly concentration plus background is 131 µg/m3.
This concentration is less than the Canadian Acceptable Objective equal to 400 µg/m3 . The
change in the maximum predicted hourly NO2 concentration relative to the Projected 2011
Baseline scenario is 2% (see Table 4-24).
Isopleths of maximum daily NO2 concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are presented in
Figure 4-49. The maximum daily NO2 concentration predicted on land is 54 µg/m3 and occurs
on the Roberts Bank Causeway. When the background NOx value is incorporated, the maximum
daily NO2 concentration is 86 µg/m3, which is less than the Canadian Acceptable Objective (200
µg/m3). This concentration is 2% greater than the maximum predicted for the Projected 2011
Baseline Scenario.
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Table 4-26: Impact Ratings for SO2 Concentration Changes due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative SO2 concentrations in the LSA will increase due to emissions from the Project.
Geographic Extent Local Increases in ambient SO2 concentrations due to Project emissions occur in the LSA.
Magnitude High The increase in ambient SO2 concentrations varies from 10 to 14%, which is rated as high. However, the maximum predicted concentrations on land are less than half the BC Level A Objectives for all averaging periods.
Duration Short-term Hourly and daily SO2 concentrations will vary due to meteorological variations. High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Infrequent High concentration events tend to be infrequent. However, annual averaging periods are by definition continuous.
Reversibility Reversible When meteorological conditions leading to high concentration events change, concentrations will decrease. Furthermore, at the end of the Project life, air emissions from the Project will cease and so will their contribution to ambient air quality.
Confidence High The model and associated input parameters are well understood.
Final Rating Moderate The magnitude of the change in SO2 concentrations is high but all maximum predicted concentrations are less than half the BC Level A Objectives and elevated concentrations will occur infrequently.
The maximum annual NO2 concentration for the CEA scenario, equal to 14 µg/m3, is also
predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway (see Figure 4-50). The maximum annual NO2
concentration including the background ambient NOx value is 40 µg/m3, which is less than the
Canadian Desirable Objective (60 µg/m3). The increase in predicted annual NO2 for the CEA
scenario relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline scenario is 2% (see Table 4-24).
Table 4-27 presents the impact ratings for NO2 concentrations due to the Project. The final
rating is Low because the magnitude of the change in NO2 concentrations due to the Project is
low and all maximum predicted NO2 concentrations are less than the most stringent Canadian
Objectives.
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Table 4-27: Impact Ratings for NO2 Concentration Changes due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE
RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative NO2 concentrations in the LSA will increase due to emissions from the Project.
Geographic Extent Local Increases in ambient NO2 concentrations due to Project emissions occur mainly in the near vicinity of Roberts Bank Port and along major roadways.
Magnitude Low The increase in ambient NO2 concentrations is 2% for all averaging periods. No exceedances of existing objectives are predicted.
Duration Short-term Hourly and daily NO2 concentrations will vary due to meteorological variations. High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Infrequent High concentration events tend to be infrequent. However, annual averaging periods are by definition continuous.
Reversibility Reversible When meteorological conditions leading to high concentration events change, concentrations will decrease. Furthermore, at the end of the Project life, air emissions from the Project will cease and so will their contribution to ambient air quality.
Confidence High The model and associated input parameters are well understood.
Final Rating Low The magnitude of the change in NO2 concentrations is low and all maximum predicted concentrations are less than the most stringent Canadian Objectives.
4.7.2.3 Carbon Monoxide
Isopleths of maximum hourly CO concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are shown in
Figure 4-51. The maximum predicted hourly CO concentration is 355 µg/m3 (see Table 4-24).
The maximum CO concentration including background ambient is 2,989 µg/m3, which is much
less than the BC Level A Objective of 14,300 µg/m3 and represents a 9% increase relative to the
Projected 2011 Baseline scenario. The maximum concentration is predicted to occur on the
Roberts Bank Causeway, but slightly closer to the mainland than the location predicted for the
Projected 2011 Baseline scenario and the Existing Baseline scenarios (cf. Figure 4-20). Slightly
higher values are predicted over water near the Roberts Bank Port, though even including the
background value these are still well below the most stringent guideline. As with the Project
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Operation plus Existing Baseline scenario (Figure 4-40), there are small increases in one-hour
CO along major roadways resulting from increased traffic due to the Project. These increases are
less than 200 µg/m3, or less than 10% of the 98th percentile background value.
The eight-hour CO isopleths for the CEA scenario are depicted in Figure 4-52. The maximum
predicted over land is 100 µg/m3 and occurs on the Roberts Bank Causeway near the mainland at
the same location as the one-hour maximum. With background added the maximum is 2,376. For
the eight-hour averaging period the maximum predicted CO concentration (100 µg/m3) is only
2% of the 98th percentile background value, and the sum of the modelled plus background
represents just a 2% increase over the Projected 2011 Baseline case. Higher concentrations are
seen over water near the Roberts Bank Port, with smaller increases visible along major
roadways. For eight-hour CO the maximum increase along roadway is on the order of 50 µg/m3,
which is an increase of about 2% over the 98th percentile background value.
Impact ratings for CO concentration changes due to the Project are presented in Table 4-28. The
final rating is Low because maximum predicted CO concentrations including background are
much less than the most stringent BC Objectives and the magnitude of the relative change is low
to moderate.
4.7.2.4 Particulate Matter
Isopleths of 98th percentile PM2.5 concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are illustrated in
Figure 4-53. The highest 98th percentile concentration predicted to occur over land is 5 µg/m3,
which is predicted to occur on the Roberts Bank Causeway. Higher concentrations are predicted
to occur over water in the vicinity of Roberts Bank Port. All concentrations predicted to occur
on the mainland are less than 3 µg/m3. The highest 98th percentile PM2.5 concentration plus
ambient background is 20 µg/m3, which is less than the CWS. This represents a 5% increase in
the predicted maximum relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline (see Table 4-25).
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Table 4-28: Impact Ratings for CO Concentration Changes due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE
RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative CO concentrations in the LSA will increase due to emissions from the Project.
Geographic Extent Local Increases in ambient CO concentrations occur mainly at Roberts Bank Port and along Deltaport Way, Highway 17 north and Highway 99 north.
Magnitude Low to Moderate
The increase in ambient CO concentrations due to the Project is 9% for one-hour, which is rated as moderate, and 2% for eight-hour, which is rated as low. For Both averaging times the maximum model prediction is much smaller than the existing 98th percentile ambient observation. No exceedances of BC Objectives are predicted anywhere in the model domain.
Duration Short-term One- and eight-hour average CO concentrations will vary due to meteorological variations. High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Infrequent High concentration events tend to be infrequent. Reversibility Reversible When meteorological conditions leading to high
concentration events change concentrations will decrease.
Confidence High The model and associated input parameters are well understood.
Final Rating Low The magnitude of the change in CO concentrations is low to moderate. However, maximum predicted concentrations are much less than the most stringent BC Objectives and are expected to occur infrequently.
The maximum daily and annual average PM2.5 concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are
8 and 1 µg/m3, respectively. The maximum daily and annual average PM2.5 concentrations
including background, equal to 24 and 7 µg/m3, are less than the Washington State standards.
These concentrations represent 6% and 5% increases relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline
Scenario for daily and annual averaging periods, respectively (see Table 4-25).
The maximum daily PM10 concentration predicted to occur over land for the CEA scenario is
8 µg/m3 and occurs on the Roberts Bank Causeway (see Figure 4-54). Higher concentrations are
predicted to occur over water in the vicinity of Roberts Bank Port and Tsawwassen Ferry
Terminal. When the ambient background value is included, the maximum daily PM10
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concentration is 35 µg/m3, which is less than the BC Objective of 50 µg/m3. The increase in
maximum predicted concentrations due to Project Operation emissions is 4% relative to the
Projected 2011 Baseline (see Table 4-25).
The maximum annual PM10 concentration predicted over land for the CEA scenario is 1 µg/m3.
The maximum PM10 concentration including the ambient background value is 14 µg/m3, which is
less than the GVRD Trigger Level. The increase in predicted annual PM10 concentrations due to
Project Operation emissions is 2% at the location of maximum impact on land (see Table 4-25).
The maximum daily and annual average TSP concentrations predicted on land for the CEA
scenario are 8 and 1 µg/m3, respectively. These concentrations are predicted to occur on the
Roberts Bank Causeway. When ambient background values are added, the maximum daily and
annual average TSP concentrations are 55 and 24 µg/m3, respectively. These concentrations are
much less than the BC Level A Objectives for TSP. The increases in these predicted
concentrations relative to the Projected 2011 Baseline Scenario, listed in Table 4-25, are 3% and
4% for the daily and annual averaging periods, respectively.
Impact ratings for PM concentration changes due to the Project are presented in Table 4-29. The
relative change in predicted concentrations is rated low to moderate. However all maximum
predicted PM concentrations are less than applicable Canada-wide Standards and the most
stringent BC Objectives. Furthermore, the changes are confined to the near vicinity of Roberts
Bank Port. Therefore the final rating is Low.
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Table 4-29: Impact Ratings for PM Concentration Changes due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative PM2.5, PM10 and TSP concentrations in the LSA will increase due to emissions from the Project.
Geographic Extent Local Increases in ambient PM concentrations occur mainly in the near vicinity of Roberts Bank Port.
Magnitude Low to Moderate
The increase in ambient PM concentrations vary from 2 to 6% depending on the averaging period and the size distribution. An increase of 2% is rated as low whereas the 6% increase is rated as moderate.
Duration Short-term Daily average PM concentrations will vary due to meteorological variations. High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Infrequent High concentration events tend to be infrequent. However, annual averaging periods are by definition continuous.
Reversibility Reversible When meteorological conditions leading to high concentration events change concentrations will decrease. Furthermore, at the end of the Project life, air emissions from the Project will cease and so will their contribution to ambient air quality.
Confidence High The model and associated input parameters are well understood.
Final Rating Low The magnitude of the change in PM concentrations is low to moderate. However all maximum predicted concentrations are less than the applicable Canada-wide Standards and the most stringent BC Objectives and therefore the final rating is Low.
4.7.2.5 Volatile Organic Compounds
Maximum hourly total VOC concentrations predicted for the CEA scenario are shown in Figure
4-55. The maximum concentration predicted on land is 32 µg/m3, which is 15 µg/m3 or 88%
greater than the Projected 2011 Baseline scenario maximum (see Table 4-24). The maximum is
predicted along the Roberts Bank Causeway, though it is closer to the mainland than for the
either the Existing Baseline or Projected 2011 Baseline scenarios. The differences in predicted
VOC concentrations for the CEA scenario as compared to either the Existing Baseline or the
Projected 2011 Baseline appears to be due to increased Truck traffic due to Project Operation.
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The impact appears to be fairly localized to roadway corridors and the predicted maximum
concentrations are on the order of 10 µg/m3 or less everywhere on the mainland, (i.e. excluding
the Roberts Bank Causeway). Table 4-24 shows that the incremental increases in maximum
predicted impact for the daily and annual averaging periods are 82% and 165%, respectively.
These large percentages are somewhat misleading because the corresponding predicted
maximum concentrations for the CEA scenario are just 7 µg/m3 and 1 µg/m3, respectively. Thus,
the absolute change in ambient VOC concentrations due to the Project Operation is expected to
be low.
As discussed in previous sections, there are no ambient criteria for total VOC in BC. Therefore,
the significance of the predicted increase in total VOC was assessed in the Human Health Risk
Assessment. Impact ratings for total VOC concentration changes due to the Project are presented
in Table 4-30. Based on the results of the Human Health Risk Assessment, the final rating is
Low.
4.7.3 Ozone and Secondary Particulate
During certain meteorological conditions (mainly periods of high temperatures and clear skies
during the summer months), SO2, NOx and VOCs react in the atmosphere to produce undesirable
smog pollutants, such as ground-level ozone and secondary PM. Because of the time required
for the reactions to take place, secondary ozone formation will tend to impact air quality on a
regional rather than a local scale. By contrast, secondary PM formation is predicted to occur
immediately downwind of sources but it can also affect regional air quality. The potential for
Project Operation emissions of smog precursors (SO2, NOx and VOCs) to impact air quality in
the RSA is assessed in this section.
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Table 4-30: Impact Ratings for Total VOC Concentration Changes due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE RATING COMMENT
Direction Negative Total VOC concentrations in the LSA will increase due to emissions from the Project.
Geographic Extent Local Increases in ambient VOC concentrations occur mainly in the near vicinity of Roberts Bank Port and the Roberts Bank Causeway and along roadways in the LSA
Magnitude High The increase in ambient total VOC concentrations for all averaging periods is greater than 10% and therefore rated as high.
Duration Short-term Hourly and daily average VOC concentrations will vary due to meteorological variations. High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Infrequent High concentration events tend to be infrequent. However, annual averaging periods are by definition continuous.
Reversibility Reversible When meteorological conditions leading to high concentration events change concentrations will decrease. Furthermore, at the end of the Project life, air emissions from the Project will cease and so will their contribution to ambient air quality.
Confidence High The model and associated input parameters are well understood.
Final Rating Low Based on the results of the Human Health Risk Assessment the final rating is considered Low.
4.7.3.1 Ozone
Ozone is a reactive form of oxygen that is a strong oxidizer and can irritate the eyes, nose and
throat and decrease athletic performance. Ozone is usually not directly discharged to the air.
Rather it is produced by photochemical reactions of anthropogenic NOx, anthropogenic VOC,
and biogenic VOC emissions. The potential for ozone formation is greatest during summer
periods characterized by high ambient temperatures, clear skies and stagnant weather conditions
(i.e., low wind speeds).
Ozone can be found in the atmosphere in the following locations:
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• Ozone concentrations peak in the stratosphere at an elevation of 25 km with a maximum
concentration of about 12 ppm. This “ozone layer” shields the earth’s surface from
ultraviolet radiation. This is beneficial since this radiation has sufficient energy to cause
skin cancer in humans and to destroy acids in DNA. In recent decades, the ozone layer
has been the subject of concern because man-made chlorofluorocarbons have reacted
with the ozone, causing a thinning of this protective layer.
• Near the surface (i.e., in the troposphere), ozone can be formed by photochemical
reactions between NOx and VOC. In this case, ozone is referred to as a secondary
pollutant. At sufficiently high concentrations, surface ozone can have adverse effects on
vegetation and human health. This so-called “ground-level ozone” has also been the
subject of much concern over the past 40 years, because man-made emissions have
caused it to increase significantly in and around urban areas.
Ground-level ozone forms as a result of dozens of chemical interactions, involving NOx and
numerous VOC species. The primary photochemical cycle of NOx and ozone (O3) can be stated
as:
(1) NO2 + sunlight → NO + O (2) O + O2 → O3 (3) NO + O3 → NO2 + O2
where NOx, when emitted by combustion sources, initially consists mainly of nitric oxide (NO),
which can be oxidized by ozone (i.e., ozone titration). The steady-state ozone concentration is
proportional to [NO2] / [NO]. However, the NO can also react with various VOC species to
form nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which then reacts with sunlight and oxygen (O2) to form ozone.
Thus, the complex chain of reactions in the daytime that lead to the formation of ground-level
ozone can be summarized as follows:
(4) NO + VOC → NO2 (5) NO2 + O2 + sunlight → O3
These reactions require sunlight and also occur more rapidly at high temperatures. Therefore,
periods of clear skies and high temperatures during the summer months are most favourable for
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the formation of ground-level ozone. Whether emissions of NOx or VOCs in a region change the
effect on ozone production depends on what the ambient NOx and VOC levels were like prior to
the change. When NOx levels are relatively high compared to VOC levels, as is often the case in
urban areas, ozone formation tends to be controlled by the VOCs. In other words, the potential
change in ozone formation will be sensitive to changes in VOC emissions but relatively
insensitive to changes in NOx emissions. The opposite is the case when NOx levels are relatively
low compared to VOC levels, which often occurs in rural areas. In general, the relationships
between NOx, VOC and ozone are not linear, and a given change in NOx or VOC concentration
can lead to a smaller change in ground-level ozone concentration.
4.7.3.2 Secondary Particulate Matter
In recent years, a growing body of evidence has emerged on the relationship between human
cardiovascular problems and fine airborne particles in smog. Some of these particles consist of
carbon soot and other particles that are emitted directly by combustion sources. Others are
particles that are formed as a by-product of chemical reactions among gaseous pollutants such as
SO2, NOX and VOCs. The latter category of particles is referred to as secondary particulate
matter.
NOx emissions can be oxidized in the atmosphere to form nitric acid (HNO3), which can then
react with ammonia to produce particles of ammonium nitrate. Ammonia is generally present in
small concentrations in the lower atmosphere, being produced by natural sources, such as
decaying organic matter, as well as by various man-made sources, such as use of ammonia-based
fertilizers and agricultural manure spreading. In addition to forming ammonium nitrate particles,
ammonia can also react with by-products of SO2 emissions to produce ammonium sulphate
particles. VOC species, initially emitted as gaseous compounds, can be converted by chemical
reactions in the atmosphere to less volatile organic compounds that condense into tiny aerosol
particles. These particles are referred to as secondary organic aerosols.
The chemical interactions that lead to the formation of sulphate, nitrate and secondary organic
aerosols are complex and, when a change in emissions of NOx, VOCs or SO2 occurs, the
resulting change in the concentration of fine particulate matter is dependent on many factors. As
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with ground-level ozone, the absolute change in PM concentration will often be smaller than the
absolute change in precursor emissions (NOx, SO2 and VOC).
4.7.3.3 The Formation of Ozone and Secondary Particulate in the Lower Fraser Valley
RWDI scientists have been involved in studying the formation of ozone and fine particulate in
the LFV (as well as other regions across Canada) using regional airshed models for a number of
years as described in various project reports and conference proceedings (e.g., Boulton et al.,
2004a; Qiu et al., 2004; di Cenzo and Lepage, 2003; Boulton et al., 2003). Model sensitivity
tests and evaluations have been performed as part of this work and have shown generally good
agreement between modelled and observed results for the LFV.
RWDI employees been involved in the performance of numerous test cases for the LFV
pertaining to impacts associated with changes in emissions, meteorology, and other model input
parameters (e.g., chemical mechanism, spatial surrogates, etc.). Impacts on ozone and fine
particulates (as well as other pollutants) have been studied for sensitivity scenarios associated
with the replacement of gasoline vehicles with electric vehicles in the GVRD (Boulton et al.,
2004b; Lepage and Van Altena, 2001), the replacement of gasoline vehicles with those running
on 10% ethanol-blend fuel (Vitale et al., 2004), and a wide range of emission scenarios
developed by Environment Canada and aimed at quantifying how emissions in both Canada and
the US affect pollutant formation and transboundary transport within the region (Qiu et al., 2004;
di Cenzo and Lepage, 2003; Boulton et al., 2003).
As noted elsewhere, changes in ozone levels is complicated, as it is sensitive to emissions of
NOX and VOCs, but also to background NOX and VOC concentrations and meteorological
conditions. However, sensitivity studies for the LFV have indicated that the percent change in
ozone is usually lower than the percent change in emissions. For example, a 15 to 20 percent
reduction in total NOX emissions and simultaneous 31% reduction in VOC emissions (modelled
for a Health Canada sponsored electric vehicle study in the LFV), resulted in small (i.e., 1 to 6
percent) reductions in 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations in rural area, and moderate (i.e., 2
to 7 percent) increases in 1-hour, 8-hour ozone concentrations in urban area (due to weakened
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ozone titration). For this same set of changes in regional emissions, a moderate reduction (i.e., 2
to 12 percent) in 1-hour and 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations was predicted.
The following sections present a semi-quantitative assessment of how the proposed Project is
expected to affect regional concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter in the RSA.
These conclusions are not based on model results per se, rather our in-depth understanding of the
sensitivity of ozone and fine particulate formation to changes in emissions in the LFV based on
previous, extensive modelling work in the region and elsewhere.
4.7.3.4 Impact of Project Operation Emissions on Regional Smog Pollutants
An indication of the impact of Project Operation on the formation of smog pollutants in the
region can be developed by examining the incremental increase in emissions of PM, NOx and
VOCs in the region. If, for example, the Project leads to a small increase in overall emissions of
NOx, VOCs and PM in the region, then we can conclude that this will translate into a small
increase in smog pollutants during air pollution episodes. As previously mentioned, the
chemical reactions that lead to the formation of the smog pollutants are not linear in nature and,
in general, the relative increase in smog pollutant concentrations would be less than the increase
in emissions.
The estimation of Project Operation and Existing Baseline emissions within the LSA are
described in detail in Appendix A. Existing Baseline emissions in the RSA were derived from
the GVRD’s 2000 Emissions Inventory, which contains estimates of pollutant emissions point,
area and mobile sources (on-road and non-road) for the Lower Fraser Valley (GVRD, FVRD and
Whatcom County in Washington State). The 2000 inventory is the most current and contains
projections for future years in 5 year increments, based on anticipated changes in marine, on-
road and non-road vehicle emissions. For this study, the 2000 emission inventory and 2010
projections were used for comparison with Project Operation emissions.
Table 4-31 compares the relative contribution of the emissions from the Project Operation to the
total emissions in the RSA. As shown in the table, the criteria air contaminant with the highest
emission rate from the Project Operation is NOx at 445 tonnes/yr, followed by CO, SO2, VOC,
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PM10, PM2.5 and NH3 at 165, 101, 25, 24, 23, 3 tonnes/yr, respectively. However, due to the large
emission background in the LFV, the relative contribution of the Project Operation to regional
emissions of any pollutant is projected to be very small. For example, total annual NOx
emissions from the Project Operation represent an increase of about 0.4% relative to total NOx
emissions in the RSA in 2000 and 0.5% relative to projected total NOx emissions in 2010. The
relative increase in SO2 emissions is about 0.5% in LFV. The incremental increase in emissions
of other pollutants, including primary PM and NH3, is 0.3% or less.
The relative contribution of the increase in NOx and VOC emissions to the formation of regional
smog pollutants such as ground-level ozone and secondary PM2.5 will not typically be greater
than the relative increase in these emissions, and in general, is expected to be less than the
relative increase in emissions. Consequently, the effect of the Project Operation emissions on
regional concentrations of ground-level ozone is estimated to be less than 0.5%. Although there
is a slight increase in SO2 and primary PM2.5 emissions in the RSA due to the Project Operation,
the net increase in total PM2.5 concentrations should be negligible (i.e., less than 1%) in the RSA.
The significance of the potential impact of Project emissions on the formation of ozone and
secondary particulate in the RSA is rated in Table 4-32. Based on the projected emissions in the
year 2011, the final rating for the impact of Project emissions on smog pollutants in the RSA is
Low. As a result, regional airshed modelling was not conducted for this study. However, the
potential impact of secondary formation of PM in the LSA was assessed using the CALPUFF
model.
4.7.4 Greenhouse Gases
4.7.4.1 Introduction
The greenhouse effect is a natural process by which radiant heat from the sun is captured in the
lower atmosphere of the earth maintaining the temperature of the earth’s surface. Rising
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere and climate change concerns
prompted Canada to commit to a six percent reduction in 1990 GHG emissions by 2012 as part
of the Kyoto Protocol.
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Table 4-31: Contribution of Project Operation Emissions to Total Emissions in the Regional Study Area
SCENARIO NOX CO SO2 VOC PM10 PM2.5 TSP1 NH3 (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) (t/y) GVRD 2000 Emissions 2 70,856 326,057 8,382 53,107 8,179 5,353 13,206 6,377 FVRD 2000 Emissions 2 11,645 41,222 324 17,806 1,885 1,075 3,456 8,137 Whatcom County 2000 Emissions 2 17,396 114,654 10,063 40,283 5,299 2,536 8,965 3,490 RSA Existing Baseline (2000 Emissions) 2 99,897 481,933 18,769 111,196 15,363 8,964 25,627 18,004 GVRD 2010 Forecast Emissions 2 60,728 315,561 8,983 46,416 8,552 5,433 14,144 7,658 FVRD 2010 Forecast Emissions 2 8,159 39,063 247 16,870 1,751 927 3,310 9,584 Whatcom County 2010 Forecast Emissions 2 12,897 97,697 11,048 36,533 5,333 2,574 8,882 3,644 RSA Projected 2011 Baseline (2010 Emissions 2) 81,784 452,321 20,278 99,819 15,636 8,934 26,336 20,886 Project Operation Emissions in the RSA 3 445 165 101 25 24 23 24 2.5 % Increase due to Project Operation vs. Existing Baseline 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% % Increase due to Project Operation vs. Projected 2011 Baseline 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Notes: 1 Particulate Emissions exclude road dust. 2 Based on Tables A-1 through A-11 of GVRD Forecast and Backcast of the 2000 Emissions Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed 1985-2025
3 RSA Emissions include estimated Deltaport shipping emissions, train emissions and container truck emissions that are within the RSA. Average additional distances that these sources travel outside the LSA but inside the RSA (LFV, Whatcom County and GVRD) are estimated as follows: Container Trucks 100 km Deltaport Container Vessels 47.7 km Deltaport Trains 150 km
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The greenhouse gases (GHG) include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
hydrofluorcarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride. Ozone is also a greenhouse gas,
but its quantitative global warming potential has not been estimated. The primary greenhouse
gas emissions considered in this assessment include carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
Emission sources of the other greenhouse gases are limited and do not contribute substantially to
total greenhouse gases in the LFV Emissions Inventory.
Table 4-32: Impact Ratings for Changes in Regional Ozone and Secondary PM Formation
due to the Project
IMPACT ATTRIBUTE
RATING COMMENTS
Direction Negative The Project will emit ozone and PM2.5 precursors (NOx, VOCs, SO2) and therefore there is potential for an increase in the secondary formation of ozone and PM in the RSA.
Geographic Extent Regional The secondary formation of pollutants tends to occur at considerable distances downwind of the emission source.
Magnitude Negligible Based on RWDI’s experience with regional airshed modelling, Project emissions of precursors are expected to result in less than a 1% increase in the secondary formation of ozone and PM.
Duration Short-term High concentration events tend to be of limited duration due to meteorological variability.
Frequency Seasonal Secondary formation of pollutants is most prevalent during summer months when the temperature is high and skies are clear.
Reversibility Reversible Changes in regional ozone and secondary PM formation are reversible.
Confidence Moderate Regional airshed modelling was not performed due to the small increase in precursor emissions. However, the assessment of the potential for increased ozone and PM formation is based on several years experience of modelling these pollutants in the LFV.
Final Rating Low The increase in ozone and PM formation in the RSA due to precursor emissions from the Project is expected to be negligible.
Levels of greenhouse gases are typically expressed as CO2 equivalent, which is an index to
compare the potential warming effect of other greenhouse gases to CO2. For example, methane
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is 21 times more effective than carbon dioxide at heating the atmosphere and therefore one tonne
of methane is equivalent to 21 tonnes of CO2.
4.7.4.2 Impact of Project Operation GHG Emissions
Impacts from GHG emissions are global in nature. Although Project Operation GHG emissions
will be small relative to global emissions, an indication of the impact of Project Operation GHG
emissions can be developed by examining the incremental increase in GHG emissions at the
regional, provincial and national levels.
The estimation of GHG emissions within the LSA is described in detail in Appendix A. Existing
Baseline and Projected 2011 Baseline GHG emissions in the RSA were derived from the
GVRD’s 2000 Emissions Inventory, which contains estimates of pollutant emissions from point,
area and mobile sources (on-road and non-road) for the Lower Fraser Valley (GVRD, FVRD and
Whatcom County in Washington State). The 2000 inventory is the most current and contains
projections for future years in 5 year increments, based on anticipated changes in marine, on-
road and non-road vehicle emissions. Provincial and national GHG emissions for the year 2001
were obtained from Canada’s GHG Inventory for 1990-2001 (Environment Canada, 2003b).
Table 4-33 compares the relative contribution of the GHG emissions from the Project Operation
to the total emissions in the RSA, BC and Canada. As shown in the table, the relative
contribution of the Project to regional GHG emissions is predicted to be very small. The CO2eq
emissions from the Project represent an increase of about 0.2% relative to the CO2eq emissions
in the RSA in 2000 or an increase of about 0.1% when compared to forecast emissions in the
RSA for 2010. As expected, the incremental increase in GHG emissions due to the Project is
even less when considered on a provincial or national basis.
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Table 4-33: Contribution of Project Operation GHG Emissions to Total Emissions in the
dibenz(a,h)anthracene, flouranthene, fluorene, indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene, phenanthrene and
pyrene). The WMM approach is based on the conservative assumption that the carcinogenic
potency of the PAH fraction of any environmental mixture is proportional to the benzo(a)pyrene
(B(a)P) content of the mixture (OMOE, 1997). The WMM uses the concentration of B(a)P
together with the toxic potency of the PAH-WMM group, and this group is referred to as B(a)P.
The IPM approach predicts risk of the PAH fraction based on the sum of the attributable risks for
each individual PAH using Toxic Equivalency Factors (TEFs). TEFs allow large groups of
compounds with a common mechanism of action such as PAHs to be assessed when there are
limited data available for all but one of the compounds. Both PAH models were employed for
this assessment. Further detail is presented in Appendix I.
5.1.2 Receptor Selection and Characterization
Human receptors were selected that represent a reasonable ‘worst-case’ in terms of potential
exposure to the Project air emissions. In selecting specific receptors, consideration was given to
identification of receptors that would be at greatest potential risk to air emissions from the
Project through relative degree of exposure.
5.1.2.1 Identification of Receptor Locations
The HHRA focused on the potential health risks to individuals living in areas located near
Roberts Bank. Representative communities near Roberts Bank were selected based on:
• Proximity to the proposed expansion;
• Predicted ground-level air concentrations associated with the proposed expansion;
• Size of population;
• Land use; and,
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• History of concerns relating to the potential impacts of the air emissions on air
quality and human health.
Using these selection criteria, the following Canadian locations were identified:
• The City of Richmond (Steveston),
• Ladner,
• TFN Indian Reservation (IR),
• Tsawwassen,
• Campsite (located on the TFN IR)
• Beach Grove,
• Boundary Bay, and
• Point Roberts.
Two receptor locations in the Point Roberts region of Washington State were selected and will
be used to represent individuals living in communities in the United States. Another area
potentially impacted by the Project is the agricultural land to the east of Roberts Bank.
Consequently, three locations closest to the Project were selected to represent agricultural
receptors (one of which is located on leased land situated on the Musqueam IR 4). All receptor
locations included in the risk assessment are inside the 30 km zone of potential impact (i.e., the
local air quality study area) (see Table 5-2). The communities are scattered within the Roberts
Bank area such that broad spatial orientation relative to the Project was achieved. Figure 5-2
illustrates the discrete receptor locations relative to the Project.
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Table 5-2: Discrete Receptors near Roberts Bank Selected for the HHRA
RECEPTOR TYPE
POPULATION DESCRIPTION
Residential Tsawwassen 21,337(1) The town of Tsawwassen is located in close proximity to
the Project, approximately 5 km to the east. Beach Grove n/a A suburban area located approximately 7 km east of the
Project. Boundary Bay n/a A suburban area located approximately 8 km east of the
Project. Ladner 21,367(1) An urban community located approximately 8 km directly
north and east of the Project. Steveston (City of Richmond)
51,977(2) Sizable urban community located approximately 12 km north of the Project.
Point Roberts 1,308(3) A suburban area located approximately 6 to 9 km south of the Project.
First Nation Tsawwassen IR 0 474(4) The First Nation’s community nearest to the Project,
situated just 4 km north and east of the Project. Agricultural Farmer #1 -- Located approximately 5 km north and east of the Project. Farmer #2 -- Located approximately 4 km east of the Project. Farmer #3 -- Located approximately 4 km east of the Project (located
on the Musequeam IR 4). Recreational Campsite -- Also situated 4 km east of the Project.
1) Sourced from the City of Delta Website based on the 2001 population (http://www.corp.delta.bc.ca/press_releases/2001population_census.pdf)
2) Sourced from BC Statistics 2001 Census Profile of British Columbia’s British Electoral Districts Richmond-Steveston
3) The U.S. receptor population was sourced from the Washington Office of Financial Management and was based on 2000 census data.
4) Sourced from Statistics Canada (2001) (http://www12.statcan.ca/english/Profil01/PlaceSearchForm1.cfm)
Note: IR = Indian Reservation
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5.1.2.2 Identification of Receptor Types
A human receptor is described as any person who resides or visits the area being investigated and
is, or could potentially be, exposed to the chemicals identified as being of potential concern.
General physical and behavioural characteristics specific to the receptor type (e.g., body weight,
breathing rate, amount of food consumed, etc.) are used to determine the amount of chemical
exposure received by each receptor. Due to differences in these characteristics between children
and adults and between males and females, the exposures received by a female child, a male
child, a female adult or a male adult will be different. Consequently, the potential risks posed by
the chemicals being evaluated also will differ depending on the chosen receptor. Since people
have varying physical features, lifestyles and habits, it is not possible to evaluate all types of
individuals. However, the HHRA must be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure that those
receptors with the greatest potential for exposure to COPC, and those that have the greatest
sensitivity or potential for developing adverse effects from these exposures are included in the
evaluation.
The rationale for this approach is based on the assumption that if unacceptable risks are not
predicted for highly exposed receptors, unacceptable risks would not be expected for less
exposed individuals. People that represent such highly exposed scenarios were selected to err on
the side of safety. Exposures and subsequent risks to typical individuals in a realistic exposure
scenario will be much less than those estimated for the highly exposed scenario. Only potential
risks to the public were evaluated here, potential risks to workers associated with on-site air
emissions are addressed by the VPA’s health and safety plan, and were not addressed.
The HHRA focused on the following four receptor-types:
1. First Nation Families. First Nation families were considered to have local, year-
round residency and to participate in such traditional activities as hunting, seafood
procurement (i.e., consumption of molluscs only, further details are provided in
Section 5.1.3) and the gathering and consumption of country foods. Native Canadian
consumption rates described by O’Connor and Richardson (1997) to estimate
traditional food consumption rates were used. Information pertaining to the types of
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traditional foods consumed was obtained from the Roberts Bank Cumulative
Environmental Effects Study – Traditional Use Study (VPA, 2001). It was assumed
that the First Nation families derive a substantial fraction of their diet locally. The
TFN will likely be the only First Nation group spending any considerable time near
the Roberts Bank area. Thus, the First Nation receptors were characterized according
to this group.
2. Agricultural/Farming families. Agricultural receptors were assumed to have year-
round residency near Roberts Bank for the duration of their lives. Consumption rates
for these receptors were based on values for typical Canadians reported by Health
Canada (1994). Members of local farming families derive a significant proportion of
their diet from their own agricultural production. Farming residents are assumed to
consume agricultural items such as dairy products, poultry and eggs.
3. Local residents. Local residents were assumed to have year-round residency near
Roberts Bank for the duration of their lives. It was assumed that these individuals
would not be consuming significant amounts of local produce and that inhalation of
air emissions was their only source of exposure. Inhalation rates for the local
residents were based on values for typical Canadians reported by Health Canada
(1994).
4. Recreational (seasonal/occasional) users. Recreational users throughout the year visit
the surrounding area. Use is more frequent during the summer tourist season owing
to the presence of camping areas, natural areas (George C. Reifel Bird Sanctuary,
South Arm Marches), beach areas (English Bluff/Tsawwassen Beach) and regional
parks (Boundary Bay Greater Vancouver Regional District Park). Since a recreational
user would not remain in the area for extended periods and would not be consuming
local produce, it was assumed that short-term inhalation was their only significant
source of exposure.
In selecting specific receptors (i.e., First Nation families, agricultural families, local residents,
and the recreational users), consideration was also given to identification of receptor types that
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would be at greatest potential risk from the air emissions from the Project. In scenarios where
humans of all ages might be exposed, the most critical receptors are often preschool or school
age children, due to the likelihood of higher rates of exposure, based on respiration rates on a per
body weight basis, and behavioural differences that tend to increase exposure. For the
assessment of chemicals thought to be capable of causing cancer (i.e., carcinogens such as
acetaldehyde, arsenic, benzene, benzo(a)pyrene, 1,3-butadiene, cadmium, chromium VI, and
formaldehyde), a composite receptor (all life stages from infant to adult), representing the
cumulative exposure over a lifetime, was assessed. Individuals with compromised health (e.g.,
asthmatics, chemical hypersensitivities) or within sensitive life stages (e.g., pregnancy) are
considered in the assessment by ensuring that selected regulatory exposure limits are sufficiently
stringent to protect such individuals.
The First Nation families, agricultural families, local residents and recreational users were
assumed to exhibit exaggerated lifestyle habits to ensure that exposures were not underestimated
(e.g., high consumption rates of country foods or local produce, continual year-round residency
at the location of maximum air concentrations for the duration of their lives, etc.). The First
Nation families and agricultural families represent the “worst-case” exposure scenario because of
their proximity to Roberts Bank, as well as their ingestion of local country food and produce
which increase COPC exposure when compared to other receptors who do not consume these
food items on a regular basis. If health risks were considered to be acceptable or minimal for
these receptors, it would suggest that health risks to receptors at all other locations would be
lower and hence acceptable as well. However, it also should be noted that lower socio-economic
status and poorer overall health might increase the sensitivity of the TFN to impacts from the
Project (See Section 5.1.2.3) (Health Canada, 2003).
Receptors from each of five age classes were assessed:
• infant (0 to 6 months);
• pre-school child (7 months to 4 years);
• child (5 years to 11 years);
• adolescent (12 to 19 years); and
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• adult (20 years and over).
Toddlers were identified as the most sensitive age group for the assessment of non-carcinogenic
chemicals. For the assessment of carcinogenic chemicals, a composite receptor (composed of all
life stages from infant to adult) was used, representing the cumulative exposure over a lifetime.
5.1.2.3 Baseline Health Assessment
For this evaluation, the risk assessment methodology is augmented by Health Canada’s Health
Determinants approach. Health Canada recommends that a Health Determinants approach be
taken to evaluate the overall health of a population (Health Canada, 2003a). This multi-factorial
approach considers other factors that can influence health such as where we live, the state of our
environment, genetics, our income and education level, and our relationships with friends and
family. Accordingly, this approach recognizes the complex inter-relationships of genetics, social
environment, physical environment, behaviour and health services that contribute to the level of
health and sense of a well-being in an individual. Key health determinants as recommended by
Health Canada include: income and social status; social support networks; education and
literacy; employment and working conditions; social environments; physical environments;
personal health practices and coping skills; health child development; biology and genetic
endowment; health services; gender and culture. These factors are considered in assessing the
potential impacts of the Project’s air emissions on the First Nation and local communities in the
study area.
This approach goes beyond typical assessments, which typically use indicators such as death,
disease and disability. The Health Determinants approach is especially relevant for the
aboriginal population, which traditionally has a poorer health status than the non-Aboriginal
population (Health Canada, 1999). In effect, the Health Determinants approach may be used to
compliment the holistic view of health held by the First Nations. For example, the TFN put
emphasis on the preservation of a strong relationship with the natural world and the importance
of maintaining balance and harmony with the environment (Tsawwassen First Nation, 2004).
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As well, population demographics and population-based health effects data are used to augment
the risk assessment by evaluating the actual situation at a given point in time in the region of
concern with respect to environmental quality, chemical exposure or health status. The
knowledge gained may guide aspects of the methodology or interpretation of the risk assessment,
aid in the determination of baseline health status and provide insight into whether regional
development has had an appreciable impact on exposure media and on populations. However,
the exact nature of the relationship between Health Determinants and their impacts on health can
only be posited in a qualitative manner.
The existing published community health information relevant to the Roberts Bank area was
reviewed as part of the baseline health assessment. Using the Health Determinants approach the
results of the Canadian community health data from the area of impact were compared with other
communities in BC, and in Canada as a whole. Similarly, the health statistics from Point Roberts
were compared to Whatcom County, Washington and the United States as a whole, whenever
possible. The communities in BC were located in the Fraser South and South Fraser Valley
Health Regions depending on the year of the data sources. The complete baseline health
assessment literature review can be found in Appendix J.
Certain of the census data were considered especially relevant to the assessment of the potential
Project-related health risks, and are outlined below.
First Nation Receptor Locations
In light of the fact that health information was not available for the TFN, information pertaining
to the Delta region was utilized instead. The TFN are within this region. Findings considered to
be of particular interest with respect to the current assessment were:
• Age-standardized mortality rates for respiratory disease and smoking-attributable
deaths among Status Indians were elevated in the South Fraser Valley health
region with respect to the general population of Fraser Valley health region and
the province of British Columbia, but were appreciably lower than that of the
Simon Fraser health region.
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• Relative to the general populations of British Columbia and Canada, the Status
Indians of British Columbia and the First Nations of Canada commonly reported
higher health outcomes (e.g., mortality rates for all cancers, circulatory system
diseases, respiratory system diseases, and smoking-attributable mortalities).
• Asthma prevalence in people 12 years of age and older and the prevalence of
current smokers were notably higher among the Status Indians of British
Columbia and the First Nations of Canada than the general populations of British
Columbia and Canada.
• Age-standardized mortality rates for the Status Indians of the South Fraser Valley
were typically on the order of twice the general population.
• The proportion of seniors (i.e., 65 years or older) among Status Indians in the
South Fraser Health Authority was lower than that of the general population.
• No appreciable difference was identified between the non-medical health
determinants of interest (i.e., employment, income, and education) for the First
Nations and the general populations of the LHAs of the Fraser South geographical
area, the Fraser Health Authority, and the province of British Columbia.
• Overall, the Status Indians of the Delta LHA and the Fraser South health region
reported higher health outcomes than the Status Indians of British Columbia, the
First Nations of Canada, and the general populations of British Columbia and
Canada, with few exceptions.
The social and economic environments of Aboriginals are less favourable than non-Aboriginals
and unfortunately the discrepancy in health is in part due to widespread inequities with respect to
opportunities for health. The prevalence of chronic diseases in Aboriginal communities seems to
be increasing and is substantially higher than in the Canadian population (Health Canada,
2003b). The findings indicate growing communities with a significant population of individuals
who could be vulnerable to air pollution. While the First Nations should be considered a
population at risk, it is still unclear as to the exact nature of the relationship between Health
Determinants and their impacts on health. Ongoing examination of both health status and the
factors that determine or influence health will help to further elucidate this relationship.
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Canadian Receptor Locations
Findings considered to be of particular interest with respect to the current assessment were:
• Asthma prevalence in British Columbia was slightly lower than that of the
national average.
• Respiratory disease deaths were slightly higher in British Columbia than Canada
as a whole, but respiratory hospitalization rates were lower in British Columbia.
• Age-standardized mortality rates for respiratory system diseases were slightly
elevated in the local health authority (LHA) of Delta compared with the
provincial average.
• The proportion of seniors (i.e., 65+ years of age) in the Delta LHA was less than
that of British Columbia as a whole. The number of seniors in the Delta LHA was
also the lowest of the LHAs in the Fraser South health region.
• Overall, no appreciable difference in health status was identified between the
general population of the LHAs of the South Fraser Valley region, the province of
British Columbia, and Canada with respect to the health outcomes reviewed
above.
Health indicators for the LHA of the South Fraser Valley are generally similar to the rest of
Canada, and suggest a healthy population. There is no obvious indication that the population as a
whole may be overly vulnerable to air pollution; however, individual responses to pollutants will
necessarily vary.
United States Receptor Locations
Findings considered to be of particular interest with respect to the current assessment were:
• No health status data specific to Point Roberts was available.
• Age-standardized mortality rates for chronic lower respiratory system disease
were lower among citizens of Whatcom County than Washington State, but
slightly higher than the national average.
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• The asthma hospitalization rate and the prevalence of current cigarette smokers
were lower in Whatcom County compared with Washington State and the United
States as a whole.
• The proportion of seniors in Point Roberts was higher than that of Whatcom
County, Washington State, and the United States as a whole.
• Overall, the health status of Whatcom County was not appreciably different from
that of the state of Washington or the United States as a whole, with respect to the
health outcomes examined above.
Health indicators for Whatcom County are generally better than for Washington State, and
suggest a relatively healthy population. There is no obvious indication that the population as a
whole may be overly vulnerable to air pollution; however, individual responses to pollutants will
necessarily vary. Moreover, Point Roberts has a higher proportion of seniors who could be
vulnerable to air pollution.
5.1.3 Selection of Exposure Pathways
The HHRA focused specifically on the potential health risks associated with the air emissions
from the Project. The determination of exposure pathways involved assessing the means by
which the air emissions could travel from the site boundaries of the Project to reach the human
receptors living in the communities chosen for study and by what pathway(s) and route(s) of
exposure. Airborne emissions can impact environmental media in a number of ways, including:
• Ambient air through direct emission and dispersion as vapour or suspended
particulate;
• Surface soils, through deposition from the air column;
• Vegetation, both through direct deposition and via uptake from soil and vapour;
• Molluscs through deposition from the air column in the inter-tidal zone; and,
• Wild game, through the consumption of food (e.g., vegetation and insects) and
soil.
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Each of the selected receptors are exposed to chemicals in media through a variety of exposure
pathways, including the following:
• Inhalation of chemicals present in air emissions (all receptors);
• Inhalation of chemicals in dust (all receptors);
• Dermal contact with chemicals deposited on soil (First Nation families and
agricultural families);
• Incidental ingestion of chemicals deposited on soil (First Nation families and
agricultural families);
• Ingestion of chemicals in vegetation (First Nation and agricultural families);
• Ingestion of chemicals in molluscs (First Nation families);
• Ingestion of chemicals in domesticated animals (agricultural families); and
• Ingestion of chemicals in wild game (First Nation families).
The possible exposure pathways evaluated for the First Nation families, agricultural families,
residential, and recreational receptors are illustrated in Figure 5-3. The exposure pathways vary
depending on the receptor type.
The primary exposure pathway for the COPC emitted from the Project was determined to be air
inhalation. This is particularly true for the gaseous criteria compounds such as nitrogen dioxide,
sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide. Potential health effects caused by these compounds are
associated with inhalation only (i.e., they do not deposit and accumulate through the food chain).
Similarly, potential health effects such as long-term morbidity or mortality caused by PM are
solely associated with inhalation.
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Figure 5-3 Possible Exposure Pathways for the HHRA
Other COPC classified as VOCs have high vapour pressures, and therefore, will tend to remain
airborne and not deposit locally. When they do deposit, they do not persist in water or soil since
they biodegrade and volatilize rapidly to the atmosphere where they undergo rapid photo-
oxidation (Health Canada, 1998). Despite the physical-chemical properties that argue against
deposition and accumulation of VOCs, the secondary exposure pathways listed above were
evaluated for the First Nation families and the agricultural families. Reasons include potential
concerns related to contamination of local food and limited evidence that plants can take up
VOCs (e.g., benzene) via air-to-plant transfer (Hattemer-Frey et al., 1990; Topp et al., 1989;
Scheunert et al., 1985; Grob et al., 1990). Exceptions include the gaseous criteria compounds
where inhalation is the only pathway of concern from a health effects perspective. Acetaldehyde
and formaldehyde were excluded from the multi-media assessment (secondary pathways) since
there are no available data to adequately provide guidance concerning the potential risks
Emissions
SOILvolatilization
AIR
HUMANS
rootuptake
TERRESTIALFAUNA and
DOMESTICATEDANIMALS
ingestion
ingestioninhalation
dermal
inhalation
inhalationdepositiondiffusiondeposition
ingestioninhalation
PLANTS/FLORA
ingestion
MOLLUSCS
ingestion (First Nations receptors only)
SEDIMENT(INTER-TIDAL
ZONE)
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associated with the ingestion of either acetaldehyde or formaldehyde (CEPA, 2000a; CEPA,
2001). Consequently, acetaldehyde and formaldehyde were assessed only via the inhalation
pathway.
PAHs show little tendency to travel through the food chain since they are rapidly metabolized
and eliminated by organisms (Health Canada, 1998; Eisler, 1987; ATSDR, 1995). However,
some PAHs are known to persist in the environment (ATSDR, 1995) and therefore have the
potential to impact secondary pathways. Consequently, most of the secondary exposure
pathways previously listed were evaluated for PAHs. The exception was particular components
of the aquatic pathway related to seafood procurement.
Seafood procurement for the First Nation families is an important cultural heritage activity;
therefore the aquatic exposure pathway was assessed. Evidence suggests that PAHs can be
accumulated in molluscs (e.g., clams, snail) due to their inability to metabolise and excrete them
(Eisler, 1987). Moreover, molluscs in the inter-tidal zone are directly exposed to COPC in the
air and by wet/dry deposition. Accordingly, molluscs were included since exposures to PAHs
could potentially occur through the ingestion of molluscs. However, fish and aquatic
invertebrates (e.g., arthropods, echinoderms and annelids) were not included since PAHs are
rapidly metabolized and eliminated by these organisms (i.e., little tendency to bioaccumulate)
(James, 1989; Eisler, 1987).
Metals occur naturally in the environment and consequently organisms have developed a variety
of mechanisms to regulate their tissue concentrations of essential metals and detoxify
nonessential metals. A number of metals are essential to maintaining proper organism health and
may cause adverse effects if present in excess or at deficient amounts (US EPA, 2004A). Metals
are typically released into the environment in particulate or aerosol form. Once released into the
environment, in this case via the air, metals can be distributed among a variety of environmental
media (e.g., soil, sediment, water). Terrestrial wildlife and plants can accumulate metals from
direct contact with the soil or sediment, with wildlife also accumulating metals via the ingestion
of contaminated foods. Aquatic species accumulate metals via respiration, dermal absorption
and diet. Consequently, since metals have the potential to accumulate in plants, most of the
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secondary exposure pathways for exposure via ingestion previously listed were evaluated. With
respect to seafood procurement for the First Nation families the exposure relates to ingestion of
molluscs.
For the assessment of chronic health risks, exposure is assessed using a multi-media exposure
model to account for the secondary pathways of exposure (i.e., soil, vegetation, country food,
molluscs, domestic animal and wild game ingestion). The model allows for the estimation of the
chemical exposure that might occur to the receptors through the primary inhalation pathway and
the various secondary pathways.
5.1.4 Summary of Problem Formulation Specific to the Project
The major outcomes of the Projects Problem Formulation are summarized in Table 5-3. The
Table shows the compounds, receptors and exposure pathways chosen for assessment.
Table 5-3: Summary of the Problem Formulation
SCENARIO CHEMICAL TYPE OF IMPACT
RECEPTOR TYPE EXPOSURE PATHWAY
Acute First Nation families Agricultural families Residential Recreational
Inhalation Existing Baseline (2003) Project Construction Project Operation CEA
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) Acute exposure limits were not available for one-hour PM2.5, one-hour PM10, 24-hour carbon monoxide, benzo(a)pyrene, or diesel PM.
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3) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc. (2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
4) 10-minute sulphur dioxide was calculated from the predicted one-hour sulphur dioxide air concentration using a conversion factor of 1.43. 5) Represents the constituents of the fluorene group (i.e., fluorene, fluoranthene, phenanthrene and pyrene). 6) Represents the constituents of the naphthalene group (i.e., acenaphthene, acenaphthylene and naphthalene). 7) Calculated as 92% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. 8) Calculated as 8% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. CWS = Canada-wide Standard
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Table 5-8 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Agricultural Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING BASELINE
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) Three agriculture receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Farmer 1, Farmer 2, and Farmer 3); however, one representative receptor (Farmer
1) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other agricultural receptors are provided in Appendix M.
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3) Acute exposure limits were not available for one-hour PM2.5, one-hour PM10, 24-hour carbon monoxide, benzo(a)pyrene, or diesel PM. 4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) 10-minute sulphur dioxide was calculated from the predicted one-hour sulphur dioxide air concentration using a conversion factor of 1.43. 6) Represents the constituents of the fluorene group (i.e., fluorene, fluoranthene, phenanthrene and pyrene). 7) Represents the constituents of the naphthalene group (i.e., acenaphthene, acenaphthylene and naphthalene). 8) Calculated as 92% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. 9) Calculated as 8% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. CWS = Canada-wide Standard
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Table 5-9 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Canadian Residential Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING BASELINE
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected.
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2) Five Canadian residential receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Steveston, Ladner, Beach Grove, Boundary Bay, and Tsawwassen); however, one representative receptor (Tsawwassen) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other Canadian residential receptors are provided in Appendix M.
3) Acute exposure limits were not available for one-hour PM2.5, one-hour PM10, 24-hour carbon monoxide, benzo(a)pyrene, or diesel PM. 4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) 10-minute sulphur dioxide was calculated from the predicted one-hour sulphur dioxide air concentration using a conversion factor of 1.43. 6) Represents the constituents of the fluorene group (i.e., fluorene, fluoranthene, phenanthrene and pyrene). 7) Represents the constituents of the naphthalene group (i.e., acenaphthene, acenaphthylene and naphthalene). 8) Calculated as 92% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. 9) Calculated as 8% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. CWS = Canada-wide Standard
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Table 5-10 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the U.S. Residential Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING BASELINE
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected.
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2) Two U.S. residential receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Point Roberts 1 and Point Roberts 2); however, one representative receptor (Point Roberts 2) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other U.S. residential receptor are provided in Appendix M.
3) Acute exposure limits were not available for one-hour PM2.5, one-hour PM10, 24-hour carbon monoxide, benzo(a)pyrene, or diesel PM. 4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) 10-minute sulphur dioxide was calculated from the predicted one-hour sulphur dioxide air concentration using a conversion factor of 1.43. 6) Represents the constituents of the fluorene group (i.e., fluorene, fluoranthene, phenanthrene and pyrene). 7) Represents the constituents of the naphthalene group (i.e., acenaphthene, acenaphthylene and naphthalene). 8) Calculated as 92% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. 9) Calculated as 8% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. CWS = Canada-wide Standard
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Table 5-11 Acute Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Recreational Receptor (1)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (3) CHEMICAL (2) EXISTING BASELINE
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected.
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2) Acute exposure limits were not available for one-hour PM2.5, one-hour PM10, 24-hour carbon monoxide, benzo(a)pyrene, or diesel PM. 3) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
4) 10-minute sulphur dioxide was calculated from the predicted one-hour sulphur dioxide air concentration using a conversion factor of 1.43. 5) Represents the constituents of the fluorene group (i.e., fluorene, fluoranthene, phenanthrene and pyrene). 6) Represents the constituents of the naphthalene group (i.e., acenaphthene, acenaphthylene and naphthalene). 7) Calculated as 92% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. 8) Calculated as 8% of the predicted total chromium air concentration. CWS = Canada-wide Standard
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5.2.1.2 Long-term (Chronic) Concentration Ratios
Potential chronic inhalation health risks for chemicals assessed at the selected receptor locations,
for each receptor type (i.e., First Nation families, agricultural families, local resident [Canadian
and U.S.] and recreational), for all development scenarios are summarized in Tables 5-12
through 5- 15.
Similar to the short-term CR values, examination of the findings reveal that the CR values were
uniformly less than 1.0 (with and without background), signifying negligible health risk for all
development scenarios.
5.2.2 Chronic Multimedia Health Risk Assessment
Estimated chronic health risks due to chronic multiple pathway exposures for chemicals assessed
at the selected receptor locations, for each receptor type (i.e., First Nation families, agricultural
families), for all development scenarios are summarized in Tables 5-16 and 5-17. Chronic
multimedia exposures were not assessed for the local resident and recreational user receptors
since they were assumed to be exposed to the COPC via inhalation alone.
The exposure ratios (ER) for all scenarios are below 1.0 (with or without background) signifying
that adverse chronic health risks from the COPC are negligible. A comparison of maximum
predicted ground level air concentrations for the Baseline, Project Operation and CEA cases
indicates that incremental COPC air concentrations from the Project are minimal and it is not
expected to influence human health.
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Table 5-12 Chronic Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Tsawwassen First Nation Receptor (1)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (3,4) CHEMICAL (2) EXISTING
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) A chronic exposure limit was not available for carbon monoxide. 3) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
4) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk above background.
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Table 5-13 Chronic Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Agricultural Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4,5) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) Three agriculture receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Farmer 1, Farmer 2, and Farmer 3); however, one representative receptor (Farmer
1) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other agricultural receptors are provided in Appendix M. 3) A chronic exposure limit was not available for carbon monoxide.
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4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc. (2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk above background.
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Table 5-14 Chronic Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the Canadian Residential Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4,5) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) Five Canadian residential receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Steveston, Ladner, Beach Grove, Boundary Bay, and Tsawwassen);
however, one representative receptor (Tsawwassen) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other Canadian residential receptors are provided in Appendix M.
3) A chronic exposure limit was not available for carbon monoxide.
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4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc. (2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2 background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk above background.
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Table 5-15 Chronic Concentration Ratios (CRs) for the U.S. Residential Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4,5) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING
1) A CR equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. 2) Two U.S. residential receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Point Roberts 1 and Point Roberts 2); however, one representative receptor
(Point Roberts 2) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other U.S. residential receptor are provided in Appendix M. 3) A chronic exposure limit was not available for carbon monoxide. 4) Background air concentrations for criteria chemicals are based on the 98th percentile ambient air concentration as presented by RWDI West Inc.
(2004), with the exception of NO2 for which the ambient ratio method was used to calculate background NO2 concentrations and thus NO2
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background concentrations may vary between receptor locations. Background air concentrations for non-criteria chemicals are based on urban ambient air concentrations typically obtained for cities within Canada (see main report for further detail).
5) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk above background.
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Table 5-16 Exposure Ratios (ERs) for the Tsawwassen First Nation Receptor (1)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (3,4) CHEMICAL (2) EXISTING BASELINE
1) An ER equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. Exposure was estimated via CEI’s multi-pathway exposure model.
2) Acetaldehyde, diesel PM and formaldehyde were not assessed through the multi-pathway exposure model (basis for exclusion is discussed in the main report); however, these chemicals are expected to contribute to the mixtures via inhalation (i.e., CR).
3) Background air concentrations are based on urban ambient air concentrations, typically from cities within Canada. 4) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk
above background. Bold = indicates an ER greater than 1.0
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Table 5-17 Exposure Ratios (ERs) for the Agricultural Receptors (1,2)
WITHOUT BACKGROUND WITH BACKGROUND (4,5) CHEMICAL (3) EXISTING BASELINE
1) An ER equal to or less than 1.0 signifies that the estimated exposure is less than the exposure limit and no health impacts are expected. Exposure was estimated via CEI’s multi-pathway exposure model.
2) Three agriculture receptors were assessed as a part of the HHRA (Farmer 1, Farmer 2, and Farmer 3); however, one representative receptor (Farmer 1) was selected for presentation below. Details pertaining to the other agricultural receptors are provided in Appendix M.
3) Acetaldehyde, diesel PM and formaldehyde were not assessed through the multi-pathway exposure model (basis for exclusion is discussed in the main report); however, these chemicals are expected to contribute to the mixtures via inhalation (i.e., CR).
4) Background air concentrations are based on urban ambient air concentrations, typically from cities within Canada. 5) Cancer risks are not summed for the risk estimates incorporating background because they are calculated based on an acceptable incremental risk
above background. Bold = indicates an ER greater than 1.0
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5.2.3 Consideration of PM
Risk estimates for PM2.5 and PM10 were calculated using the method outlined in the BC Lung
Association report Health and Air Quality 2002 – Phase 1: Methods for Estimating and Applying
Relationships between Air Pollution and Health Effects (Bates et al, 2003). Health risks were
calculated for mortality, respiratory hospital admissions (RHA) and cardiac hospital admissions
(CHA). In order to assess potential heath outcomes due to exposure to PM the predicted ground-
level PM concentrations at Ladner and Tsawwassen were used to represent the Corporation of
Delta (population 97,210). Other local communities are unlikely to show significant measurable
health effects due to their much smaller population sizes.
Bates et al. (2003) recommend use of a quantitative effects estimation model to determine the
overall potential health impacts as a result of changes in PM. The model considers:
• Incremental air quality changes (air concentrations, µg/m3)
• Concentration-response factors (CRFs) for specific health effects (outcomes per
µg/m3)
• Estimated number of effects (health outcomes)
The incremental changes to the predicted PM air concentrations were calculated by subtracting
the Existing Baseline concentrations from the Project Operation (Project + Existing Baseline)
concentrations (see Table 5-18).
Table 5-18: Predicted incremental changes in PM2.5 and PM10 in Ladner and Tsawwassen
as a result of the Project
MAXIMUM PROJECT-RELATED INCREMENTAL AIR
CHANGES (µg/m3)
PM2.5 PM10 COMMUNITY
24-hour Annual 24-hour Annual
Ladner 0.2 0.03 0.2 0.03
Tsawwassen 0.2 0.05 0.2 0.05
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Bates et al. (2003) present CRFs for a number of health effects associated with ambient levels of
PM2.5 and PM10. Some of these include mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations,
NMAPS (corrected); Dominici et al., (2003) Stieb et al., (2002b, 2003) Six-Cities (updated)
Chronic, total mortality Low 1 Central: 4 High: 11
Time Series: Stieb et al., (2002b, 2003) PM10 &PM2.5 (Pope et al., 1995 and 2002) Six Cities Study (re-analysis)
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Table 5-20: Morbidity CRFs for PM10 and PM2.5 adopted from the Air Quality Valuation
Model and recommended by Bates et al. (2003) for use in BC in the absence of regional
estimates
CRF HEALTH ENDPOINT PM2.5 PM10
RHA (daily per 1 µg/m3 increase)
Low: 1.00 x 10-8 Central: 1.21 x 10-8 High: 1.42 x 10-8
Low: 0.64 x 10-8 Central: 0.78 x 10-8 High: 3.26 x 10-8
CHA (daily per 1 µg/m3 increase)
Low: 7.90 x 10-9 Central: 1.02 x 10-8 High: 1.26 x 10-8
Low: 5.0 x 10-9 Central: 6.6 x 10-9 High: 8.2 x 10-9
Changes in mortality events were calculated as follows:
∆Emort = CRF x ∆AC x BR x POP
Where:
∆Emort = changes in mortality events
CRF = concentration-response factor
∆AC = change in PM air concentration
BR = per capita mortality occurrence rate (0.0062, Bates et al. 2003)
POP = the exposed population (21,367 for Ladner and 21,337 for Tsawwassen)
Changes in morbidity events (i.e., CHA and RHA) were calculated using a slight alteration of the
mortality equation:
∆Emorb = CRF x ∆AC x POP
The key difference is that the CHA and RHA estimates are based on AQVM CRFs (Table 5-20)
which already have the per capita morbidity occurrence rates (i.e., BRs) incorporated into them.
The calculated risk estimates (see Table 5-21) indicate that measurable health effects as a result
of the Project’s PM emissions are unlikely to occur. The highest risk estimates are for annual
mortality in Ladner and Tsawwassen. Considering the relatively small populations of Ladner and
Tsawwassen (when compared against the populations of the urban centers upon which the CRFs
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are based) and the small predicted increases in annual PM concentrations, it is improbable that
these low risk estimates would lead to measurable health effects in any of the communities
surrounding the Project.
Table 5-21: Changes in mortality and morbidity events attributable to predicted Project-
related increases in PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in Ladner and Tsawwassen
LADNER TSAWWASSEN HEALTH EFFECT PM2.5 PM10 PM2.5 PM10
Mortality (daily)
0.00007 (0.00001-0.00009)
0.00008 (0.00002-0.0001)
0.00007 (0.00001-0.00009)
0.00006 (0.00001-0.00008)
Mortality (annual)
0.02 (0.004-0.05)
0.02 (0.004-0.05)
0.02 (0.006-0.07)
0.03 (0.006-0.07)
CHA (daily) 0.00004 (0.00003-0.00005)
0.00003 (0.00002-0.00004)
0.00004 (0.00003-0.00005)
0.00003 (0.00002-0.00003)
RHA (daily) 0.00005 (0.00004-0.00006)
0.00003 (0.00003-0.0001)
0.00005 (0.00004-0.00006)
0.00003 (0.00002-0.0001)
Note: All risks are based on central estimates, each of which is accompanied by a range of values (in parentheses) that represent the low to high CRFs.
Interpretation of the mortality and morbidity health effects must consider the:
• Transferability of concentration-response functions: CRFs provide an estimate of
the relationship between the health endpoints of interest and PM concentrations.
CRFs may not always provide an adequate representation of the CRFs
relationship in times and places other than those in which they were estimated (as
is the case for some of the AQVM data).
• Extrapolation of concentration-response relations beyond the range of observed
PM data: A concentration-response relationship estimated by an epidemiological
study is likely not valid at concentrations below the range of concentrations
observed for the analysis location. The form of the CRF is log-linear and it is
expected that the confidence intervals increase substantially at the lower end of
the concentration range for health endpoints associated with PM2.5 and PM10.
• The local population likely isn’t “sufficient to produce a reasonably precise
estimate of the mortality [and morbidity] effect of PM” (Bates et al., 2003)
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• The association between PM and mortality is small, explaining only a minor
fraction of daily mortality – this implies that the level of stress imposed by
ambient PM is low or that the population at risk is small (Frank and Tankersley,
2002).
• Due to the many sources of uncertainty inherent in PM risk analyses, any PM risk
estimates should not be interpreted as demonstrated health impacts or precise
measures of risk (US EPA, 2004).
Despite the limitations of the quantitative analysis and even though the population surrounding
the Project is too small to demonstrate an increased risk, it remains important to recognize that,
assuming a non-threshold response, any increases in PM “will enhance the risk of an outcome”
(Bates et al., 2003). However, considering that the:
• PM risk estimates determined using the Bates et al. (2003) approach were
generally low;
• Project contribution is very small for PM2.5 and PM10;
• 24-hour PM2.5 concentrations are not anticipated to exceed the Canada-Wide
Standard of 30 µg/m3 for any of the development scenarios;
• 24-hour PM10 concentrations are not expected to exceed BC’s Ambient Air
Quality Objective of 50 µg/m3 for any of the development scenarios; and the
• Annual PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are not predicted to exceed California’s
Ambient Air Quality Standards of 12 µg/m3 and 20 µg/m3 for any of the
development scenarios,
the overall health risks associated with the Project’s PM emissions are characterized as being
low.
5.3 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HHRA AND HOW THESE WERE ADDRESSD
Intrinsic to virtually all health risk assessments is the practice of applying conservative
assumptions to accommodate the various uncertainties surrounding the predictions that are made.
These uncertainties apply both to the estimates of exposure and to the estimated safe levels of
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exposure (i.e., exposure limits) that often require the extrapolation of health effects data across or
within species. Conservatism is introduced into the risk assessment paradigm as a means to
reduce the possibility of risks being over-looked or understated.
A considerable number of conservative assumptions were incorporated into the current HHRA,
including:
• Results of the air dispersion modelling are based on maximum continuous COPC
emission rates. The predicted ground level air concentrations therefore represent
the maximum levels likely to be encountered at each of the chosen receptor
locations.
• The air dispersion modelling incorporated one year of meteorological data from
the local area, and was deemed to capture conditions resulting in the maximum
ground level air concentrations.
• The exposure limits selected for use included safety factors to protect vulnerable
individuals who might be susceptible to the effects of air pollution.
• The predicted chronic health risks assumed that individuals would be exposed
continuously (i.e., 24 hours per day and 365 days per year) to the maximum
predicted concentrations for the duration of their lifetimes (i.e., the operating life
of the Project was assumed to be 75 years).
• The human receptor that is most sensitive to chemical exposure (composite for
carcinogens, toddler for all other chemicals) was deliberately reported in the risk
assessment.
• It was assumed the First Nation receptor consumed 100% of their focused diet
(i.e., wildlife game and seafood procurement), fruits and vegetables from food
obtained locally in the study area.
• It was assumed the agricultural receptor consumed 100% of their agricultural
items such as dairy products, poultry and eggs from food impacted by chemical
deposition.
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• Estimated changes in tissue concentrations (plant, terrestrial and aquatic wildlife)
for applicable COPC were based on the maximum predicted air concentrations.
• It was assumed that no degradation over time of the chemical compounds in
vegetation occurred (i.e., only continuous accumulation).
• Water, soil and wildlife tissue concentrations for the future scenario (i.e., CEA
scenario) were predicted assuming 75 years of continuous operation and chemical
deposition. It was assumed that wildlife game would be continuously exposed to
the maximum predicted ground level air concentration (i.e., the maximum
predicted air concentration for each COPC at the receptor locations).
5.4 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS OF THE HHRA
Potential human health risks were assessed in relation to air emissions from the Project and other
emission sources in the study area. The risk assessment included the following components:
• Problem formulation
• Exposure assessment;
• Toxicity assessment; and
• Risk characterization.
The overall conclusions drawn from the HHRA are that the health risks are negligible for the
selected receptor locations from acute or chronic inhalation exposures, or from ingestion of food
grown or raised within the local study area. These findings applied to all chemicals, all receptor
locations, and all exposure scenarios.
Special consideration was given to the Project’s PM emissions. Health risks were estimated
using quantitative methods outlined by Bates et al. (2003). The resultant health risks were low
and considering that no guideline exceedances were predicted on either an acute or chronic basis,
overall health risks as they relate to PM were characterized as being low.
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