A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF With thanks to A.Benedetti, A.Dethof, R.Engelen, J-J.Morcrette, J.Flemming, M.Razinger, S.Serrar,A.Simmons, M.Suttie
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A.Hollingsworth Slide 1 GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF.
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A.Hollingsworth Slide 1
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS
Anthony Hollingsworth
ECMWF
With thanks to A.Benedetti, A.Dethof, R.Engelen, J-J.Morcrette,
• Overall Objective: GEMS will exploit current huge investments in satellite data to extend NWP Modelling and Data Assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition global and regional scales
• Provide a whole new range of services for GMES
• Global Deliverables
• Regional Deliverables
• Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS
• Schedule for Transition to Operations in 2009
• Sustainability of GEMS: Satellite Provision 2009-2019
A.Hollingsworth Slide 3
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
GMES: Motivations for GEMS
• TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION• Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best
estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents.
heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe.
• SCIENCE• GEMS will synthesise all available satellite & in-situ data into
accurate ‘status assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan
A.Hollingsworth Slide 4
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
GEMS FAQs
• Fundamental Objective: Extend the modelling and data-assimilation methods of Numerical Weather Prediction to atmospheric composition incl. Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol
• GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009• €12.5M, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries
OCO SMOSRed: in orbitBlack: Planned GEMS will use all these satellite resources
A.Hollingsworth Slide 6
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Organisation of the GEMS Project
GEMS is organised in 6 projects
Validation
ReactiveGases
Greenhouse
Gases
AerosolRegional
Air Quality
A.Hollingsworth Slide 7
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
(iii) GEMS: a distributed system for operations and research
The GEMS system -Distributed
system for Research and Operations.
-Many Regional Systems
-Many Global CTMs
- A Global Weather system
A.Hollingsworth Slide 8
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
GEMS Global Deliverables: -Operational System for Atmospheric Composition -Retrospective Analyses
-Operational mapping of CO2 sources/sinks
Global Operational System• By 2009, at ECMWF, an operational global monitoring/ forecast
system for atmospheric composition, combining all remotely sensed and in-situ data to create 3 dimensional global distributions [50km (H), 1km (V), 6 hours] of key atmospheric trace constituents:
• greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),
• reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),
• aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)• Retrospective Analysis
• Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007)
• Sources, Sinks and Transports • Monthly/ seasonal maps of the sources, sinks and inter-
continental transports, of CO2, O3 and many other trace gases and aerosols, based on in-situ & satellite data
A.Hollingsworth Slide 9
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
GEMS Regional Deliverables: -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts - Improved services for health
sector- Mapping of regional sources /
deposition
• Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional
air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems
• Improved monitoring and forecast services for the health sector
• UV exposure and skin cancer• Heat stress and drought• Acute pollution events• Respiratory and Cardiovascular disease• Future
• Vector borne and zoonotic disease (cf. malaria experience)
• Regional estimation of sources/sinks of CO2, O3, aerosol…
A.Hollingsworth Slide 10
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
aConsistent detectionby ESA and NASA instruments of CO2 anomalies over N.America during summer 2003,
- in lower troposphere from Schiamachy (left)
- in upper troposphere from AIRS (right)
- probably due to suppression of photosynthesis by the drought
Barkley, Monks & Engelen (to appear, GRL, 2006)
2003
May
June
Jul
Sept
A.Hollingsworth Slide 11
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
"erv1: Tau550: Sum DD3b: TL159L60 CY30R2_aer01corr"Thursday 4 May 2006 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 5 May 2006 00UTC Surface: **
0.001
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
1
2
3
Courtesy J-J.Morcrette
A.Hollingsworth Slide 12
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Ozone Hole 1 Oct 2003 in ECMWF assimilation
a) Ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere assimilation on 1 October 2003;
b) Vertical cross section of ozone partial pressure along 8W in a); the partial pressure of ozone is almost zero at 15km, over a wide area. Sharpness due to MIPAS
c) Comparison of (independent) ozonesonde profile data at Neumayer (70.7S 8.3W) with the assimilated field; the agreement is remarkable.
a
b c
Courtesy: A.Dethof
A.Hollingsworth Slide 13
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
ECMWF Schedule to operational transition of GEMS
Year 1May 2005 -Aug 2006
• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site
Year 2Aug 2006-Aug 2007
• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers
Year 2-2.5Aug 2007-Jan 2008
• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience
Year 2.5-3.5Jan 2008- Nov 2008
• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners • Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol
Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008- May 2009
• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers
A.Hollingsworth Slide 14
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Time lines of committed and likely missions2009-2019
C-1 (launch 2013 - in PM orbit)• VIIRS • CrIS • ATMS• CERES • OMPS-Nadir • SEM • SARSAT (Search and Rescue Sensor)• ADCS (Argos-like data collection system)
C-2 (launch 2016 - in AM orbit)• VIIRS • Microwave imager/sounder• SARSAT
•Reliance for the mid-AM orbit coverage will be on Metop; •No NPOESS platforms are planned for mid-AM orbit;
•If needed, there remains the option of deploying further DMSPs (i.e. one already built and in storage) in mid-AM orbit instead of the AM orbit
A.Hollingsworth Slide 34
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme 2009-2022 (ii)
C-3 (launch ~ 2020 - in PM orbit, available no earlier than 2018)• VIIRS• Microwave imager/sounder• CrIS• ATMS• OMPS-Nadir • SEM • SARSAT• ADCS
C-4 (launch currently planned for 2022 - in AM orbit. Available no earlier than 2020)
• VIIRS • Microwave imager/sounder• SARSAT
A.Hollingsworth Slide 35
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Status of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography……
• CMIS: The current work on the instrument is "terminated“.• ATMS will be the microwave sounder on C-1. • There will be a process of solicitation for a "less capable" microwave
imager/sounder available for C-2 and beyond. It is unclear what the main differences will be between this "replacement" instrument and CMIS.
• The new version will likely not have the capability for soil moisture observations.
• Reliance will be on Metop and DMSP for the near- to medium-term for ocean wind-speed and direction.
• APS: Reliance for aerosol observations for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for beyond Glory is yet to be developed.
• TSIS: Reliance for solar irradiance for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for this observation beyond Glory is yet to be developed.
• OMPS-Limb: Will not be flown. No mitigation plan mentioned. (OMPS-Nadir *is* still included - in the PM orbit.)
• ERBS: In place of ERBS, the CERES instrument (from EOS?) will fly on C-1. No certain plan for after that (so not listed on anything but C-1 above.)
• SESS: Instead of SESS, the SEM instrument (from POES?) will be used, and will fly on the PM orbit, starting with C-1.
• Radar Altimeter : No altimeter will be flown on NPOESS. There will be the reliance on future Navy mission for altimetry. No clear plan yet.
A.Hollingsworth Slide 36
GEMS & Chemical Data Assimilation
Accommodation of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate,
Oceanography……•
The NPOESS bus will have the capability (i.e. physical space) for the ‘secondary sensors’
• (APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, SESS, Altimeter).
• The NPOESS program ‘will plan and fund for integration’ of the instruments within the NPOESS program, but only if the instruments are provided from "outside the program" (i.e. some other agency or international partner pays for the instrument.)