Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa By Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture:

Agriculture Sector Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Performance in Southern

AfricaAfricaBy Pius Chilonda

Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA

ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture: Exploring New Opportunities and Strategic Alternatives to Inform African

Agricultural Development, Planning and Policy

UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia23-24 November 2009

Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

Outline of Presentation

• Introduction

• Role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG

• Concluding remarks


ReSAKSS-SA• As part of the ReSAKSS network, ReSAKSS-SA is

supporting CAADP and SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) by providing analysis and knowledge support for agricultural development, planning and policy for accelerated growth and poverty reduction

• Monitoring of agricultural sector performance as expressed in CAADP, SADC RISDP, MDG 1 targets is one of our key activities

• Aim is to provide evidence about role and importance of agriculture based on regionally shared goals; therefore build a case for increased investment in the sector


Monitoring CAADP and SADC RISDP targets

• A comprehensiveA comprehensive M&E framework has been developed M&E framework has been developed by RESAKSS and informs our workby RESAKSS and informs our work

• CAADP CAADP – 6% growth in agricultural GDP6% growth in agricultural GDP– 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo 10% budget allocation to agriculture (Maputo

declaration) declaration) • SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security SADC RISDP – 11 indicators to ensure food security • MDG 1 – hunger and povertyMDG 1 – hunger and poverty


Main SADC RISDP Agricultural Performance targets

1. Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the Achieving a GDP growth of at least 7% a year and halving the proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day proportion of the population living on less than US$1 per day between 1990 and 2015between 1990 and 2015

2.2. Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% as a percentage of the total by 2015percentage of the total by 2015

3.3. Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare Increasing fertilizer consumption from 44.6 kilograms per hectare ((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world ((kg/ha) of arable land to 65 kg/ha of arable land by 2015 (world average is 98.8 kg/ha)average is 98.8 kg/ha)

4.4. Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392 Increasing cereal yield in kg/ha hectare from an average of 1,392 to 2,000 (world average) by 2015to 2,000 (world average) by 2015

5.5. Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies such as improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 20152015

6.6. Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annuallyIncreasing livestock production by at least 4% annually


The role of agriculture and recent trends in the context of SADC RISDP, CAADP and MDG1


Human population is still largely rural based

Source: World Bank (2009)


Agriculture still employs more people than non-agricultural sectors

Source: FAOSTAT (2009) Note: Estimated and Projected -2008-)


Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008)

Low income

Lower middle income

Upper middle income



SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target

SADC RISDP target (7% GDP growth)



… strong GDP growth yet to translate into poverty reduction and improved welfare……

Source: SADC (2008)


Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction



Along with SSA, the SADC region has low agricultural value added per worker



Progress towards the 6% agriculture GDP CAADP growth target

CAADP ag GDP target (6%)

Source: FAOSTAT (2008)


Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target


SADC RISDP target 2000kg/ha by 2015


Maize productivity relatively flat



Livestock production against SADC RISDP target of at least 4% growth per annum

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Net importer of livestock products in value terms



Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha

SADC RISDP target 65kg/ha by 2015

Source: SADC (2008)


Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7% of area under irrigation

SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015

Source: SADC (2008)


Progress towards 10% share of agriculture in public investments

10% Maputo declaration


Percentage of agriculture budgets in national budgets- Malawi


Sub-sector contribution in total agriculture spending - Malawi


Composition of Agricultural Spending: The Case of Zambia

Source: ReSAKSS-SA, MACO (Zambia), MSU (Zambia)

Example of Zambia’s 2005 Budget


Concluding remarks


Conclusion

• There is varying progress in agricultural sector performance, with most targets yet to be met

• Challenges still exist:– stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates– increasing budget allocations to the sector and

identification of policy and investment options– Increasing agricultural productivity, especially

narrowing the yield gaps– Enhancing market access, while taking advantage of

regional integration efforts

Agriculture Sector Performance in Southern Africa By Pius Chilonda Sub-Regional Coordinator, ReSAKSS-SA ReSAKSS Africa -Wide Conference on Agriculture:

Documents

knowledge support system

povertystrategic analysis

sectorstrategic analysis

mdg1strategic analysis

annuallystrategic analysis

agriculture sector performance

agricultural gdp

importance of agriculture