Nevil C. Speer, PhD, MBA Western Kentucky University Addressing Cow Herd Management and Business Issues: Corn Economy 60 th Annual Florida Beef Cattle Short Course Gainesville, Florida May 4-6, 2011 Weekly Omaha Corn ($/cwt) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 Corn: Total Use / Disappearance vs Carryover (Adapted from USDA) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Mil bu Marketing Year Total Use Carryover
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Nevil C. Speer, PhD, MBAWestern Kentucky University
Addressing Cow Herd Management
and Business Issues:
Corn Economy
60th Annual Florida Beef Cattle Short CourseGainesville, Florida
May 4-6, 2011
Weekly Omaha Corn ($/cwt)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Corn: Total Use / Disappearance vs Carryover(Adapted from USDA)
Ag Commodities Traditional Model Internal Drivers Only
Ethanol
Energy
Markets
ForexFinancialization/ Money Flow /
Globex
Globalization
Ag Commodities
Ag Commodities New Model of Complexity
Risk = 1. Danger
2. Opportunity
Business Transition: Black Swans
“What you really want to plan for are ‘what ifs’ rather than counting on a linear forecast of what’s going to happen.”
Gerald Greenwald, Founding Principal, Greenbriar Equity Group LLCFormer Chairman and CEO, UAL CorpFormer Vice‐Chairman, Chrysler Bloomberg on the Economy; Jan 13, 2009
CZ11: March 15‐18Lots of Volatility!!!
Limit Down
A Matter Of Perspective: Duck or Rabbit?
• The wrong question:
– What’s the market going to be?
• Implies single mindset of being price taker
• Myopic: doing what we’ve always done
• The right question:
– What’s the business environment telling us?
– How will we construct our marketing and management decisions around those signals?
– Where do new opportunities lie?
Always remember, it’s the worry you haven’t even thought to worry about
that should worry you the most! Clarice Bean, Don’t Look Now (Lauren Child)