Accelerating Innovation in Agriculture 2014 01-23

Presenter Dr Achim Dobermann. Deputy Director General (Research) International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)

Topic “Accelerating Agricultural Innovations for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda”

Date 23 January 2014

Venue ACIAR

Acknowledgements Dobermann, A (2014) Accelerating Agricultural Innovations for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, ACIAR Seminar Series presentation, 23 January 2014, Canberra, Australia.

Achim Dobermann

Seminar at ACIAR, Canberra, 23 January 2014

Accelerating Agricultural Innovations for the Post-2015 Sustainable

Development Agenda

What could make the next 15 years different from the previous?

• Unique opportunities: – end extreme poverty and hunger by 2030– rapid technological advances

• Grand challenges: – human impact on the physical Earth could exceed

safe planetary boundaries– increasing inequality and social exclusion– increasing complexity and difficulties of global

governance

The key post-2015 driver

Broad material improvement of life:

6/7 of the world’s population want to catch up with 1/7

By 2030, 5 bln people who will each consume $10-100 per day

Global economy will grow at 3-4% per year = doubling in size every generation

Annual global GDP will rise from $90 trillion (7.2 bln people) to >$300 trillion by 2050 (9-10 bln people)

The pillars of the new sustainable development agenda

Economic development

Social inclusion

Environmental sustainability

Good governance

Our generation needs to make deep changes in technologies and policies to decouple future economic growth from unsustainable use of:

Fossil fuels

Land

Oceans

Freshwater

Other resources

http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org

1. Support the High-Level Panel, OWG and other

post-2015 SDG processes

2. 12 thematic Groups to identify long-term

pathways to sustainable development

3. Promote testing, demonstration, development

of promising new “solutions”

4. Build a global Knowledge Center Network for

local and regional problem solving

5. Global online university for sustainable

development

Sustainable Development Solutions Network(SDSN)

Website: www.unsdsn.orgEmail: [email protected]

10 SDGs proposed by the SDSN1. End Extreme Poverty Including Hunger*

2. Achieve Development within Planetary Boundaries*

3. Ensure Effective Learning for All Children and Youth for Life and Livelihood

4. Achieve Gender Equality, Social Inclusion, and Human Rights for All

5. Achieve Health and Wellbeing at All Ages*

6. Improve Agricultural Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity*

7. Empower Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities

8. Curb Human-Induced Climate Change and Ensure Sustainable Energy*

9. Secure Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Good Management of Natural Resources*

10. Transform Governance for Sustainable Development*

* Goals that could include targets and indicators for agriculture

http://unsdsn.org

Goal 6: Improve Agriculture Systems and Raise Rural Prosperity

Targets:• 6a. Ensure sustainable food production systems that

achieve high yields with high efficiency of water, nutrients, and energy, and have low food losses and waste.

• 6b. Halt forest and wetland conversion to agriculture, protect soil resources, and ensure that farming systems are resilient to climatic change and disasters.

• 6c. Ensure universal access in rural areas to basic resources and infrastructure services (land, water, sanitation, modern energy, transport, mobile and broadband communication, agricultural inputs, and advisory services).

Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems

Indicators:• Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.)• Crop yield gap (actual yield as % of yield potential)• Livestock and fish productivity growth• Crop water productivity (tons of harvested product per

unit irrigation water)• Full-chain nitrogen [phosphorus] use efficiency (%)• …..• ……

Target 6a: Sustainable food production systems

Aspirational outcomes:• Annual yield growth rate of major food crops approaches

or exceeds [1.5]%.• The majority of farms achieve [80]% of the attainable

water-limited yield potential by 2030.• Livestock productivity in developing countries doubled by

2030, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.• Water productivity of crop production increased by [30]%

in countries with high water use for irrigation.• Full-chain efficiency of nitrogen and phosphorus

increased by [x]% relative to current levels in each country with sub-optimal efficiency.

The CGIAR should adopt the post-2015 framework and terminology

Post-2015 SD• SDG• Targets• Indicators and metrics

for them• (specific outcomes)

CGIAR• SLOs• IDOs• Indicators• …

the timelines for the post-2015 process, a new SRF and developing a CRP II portfolio seem to match: 2014-2016

Could the CGIAR also step up and become the world leader in science and practice of monitoring the performance of global agriculture?

The new food system challenge

• Change behavior towards healthier diets and reduce food loss and waste

• Increase productivity by more than 60% on existing crop and pasture land by 2050

• Preserve the environment through lower resource intensity and sound use of inputs

• Make farming an attractive economic opportunity for (young) people living in rural areas

Total factor productivity is the primary source of growth in agriculture – but is highly variable among countries

Source: K. Fuglie et al., 2012

S&T role

More public and private investments in agricultural S&T

• Increase funding for public agric. R&D in all countries.

• Target 10b: • Low- and middle-income should spend at least

10% of natl. budget on agriculture, including at least 1% of agricultural GDP on R&D in their country (currently: ~0.5% or less)

• ODA: spend at least 10% on agriculture

• Create IP laws, other regulations, technology incentives that encourage greater private sector investments in S&T as well as wide access to innovations.

Time (years)

Ad

op

tio

n

0 30

Basic research

Technology development

Challenge: long lag times from research to large impact of new technologies

Release

10 20

10-15 years of R&DVariable, slow adoptionDisadoption

Annual adoption rate

Cumulative adoption

<20 to >90%

How can we accelerate S&T for sustainable agricultural intensification?

How can we ensure that all countries have sufficient S&T capacity and wide access to S&T innovations?

The problem of too much water

20 million ha affected by floods in South and Southeast Asia Growing problem with climate change Rice is only crop suitable, but ‘drowns’

The problem of too much water

Samba-Sub1

Samba

Samba-Sub1IR64-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR64

IR42

IR64

IR64-Sub1

Samba-Sub1

IR49830 (Sub1)

Samba

IR64

IR64-Sub1IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

IR64-Sub1

IR64

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR49830 (Sub1)

IR42

Samba

IR42

Samba

Gene for submergence tolerance (sub1) found in a local variety (FR13A) and moved into popular “mega-varieties”

FR13A

Science innovation: flood-tolerant rice

2006: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing

Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected, including FR13A

1950 1978 1990 2000 2010

Gene bank screened; FR13A identified

Semi-dwarf & submergence tol. combinedFirst modern varieties, but poor agronomic features

1995: Sub1 mapped to Chr. 9Fine mapping & marker development initiated

2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1)

2006: Sub1-A gene conferring submergence tolerance

2009: Swarna-Sub1 released in India, Indonesia, IR64-Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines

2008: Sub1-A mode of action: inhibit response to GA

2010: Two Sub1 varieties released in Bangladesh

Science innovation: flood-tolerant rice

Spillover: sub1 varieties in SE Asia; wide use of sub1 gene in public and private sector breeding (Africa, Asia, South America)

Diffusion of flood-tolerant rice through PPP

October 2010, Mymensingh, Bangladesh

Local variety: re-planted after total loss due to flood

2013: new Sub1 varieties reached >4 million farmers in AsiaFree “crop insurance”Yield advantage of 1-1.5 t/ha; earlier harvest

Swarna-Sub1: recovered after 17 d flood

Impact

How to accelerate S&T impact?

• R&D:– Precise product profiling (gene targeting): digital

spatial technologies, market research– Speed up gene discovery and trait development:

genomics, phenomics, bioinformatics – Precision breeding pipelines with high-throughput

technologies to cut variety development time in half

• Policy: – Wide access to traits and breeding know-how– Modernize variety release procedures and seed laws– Incentives for developing a vibrant private seed sector

Source: Sutton, M.A. et al. 2012).

Full Chain NUEN,P

The problem: Low nitrogen use efficiency

• Apply only moderate amount of N

• Increase amount in proportion to crop yield

Early• Apply at critical growth

stages

• PI application at 60 days before harvest

• Vary N based on crop N needs and status

Active tillering & PI

Early growth Activetillering

Panicle initiation Maturity Heading

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 days

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAT

Transplanting

Direct seeding

Heading• Diagnose need for extra N

Science innovation: Site-specific N management

• 10-20% more yield and profit• 30-50% greater N use efficiency • Less fossil fuel• Less N2O emissions• Less water pollution• Less pests (and pesticides)

R&D 1992-2005 demonstrated:

Science innovation: Site-specific N management

How to achieve behaviour change in +100 million rice

farmers?

User interface: obtain information

from farmerPersonal computer

Smartphone

Actionable field advice

Printed guidelines

SMSImage on Smartphone

Cloud based server

Localized databases and spatial information

• Administrative units• Variety traits • Climate-based yield targets• Climatic risks• Soil and water information• Providers of inputs,

services, knowledge

Rice Crop Manager app

Diffusion: Smartphone applications for farmers

Ag Professionals

NMRice fertilizer recommendations by region in the Philippines. Total of 18,796 from Jan 2012 – 30 Sept 2012

Source: IRRI NM webapps analytics; includes web and Android but not IVR

How to accelerate S&T impact?

• R&D:– Precise product profiling (targeting): market research– Invest more in S&T to accelerate tailored product

development (public and private)

• Policy: – Incentives for farmers to adopt more resource-

efficient technologies: smart subsidies– Broadband internet access– Incentives and opportunities for people and private

sector: business models, financing and professional skill development for services providers

Structure of public food and agricultural research worldwide, 2009

P. Pardey et al., 2013

Annual rate of return on investments in public agricultural R&D: 20-80%

$34.1 billion(2005 PPP$)

What should be IRRI’s future role?

Ric

e co

nsu

mp

tio

n M

MT

mil

led

ric

e

The Global Rice Equation:Per capita consumption stable over last 20 years

1 billion people = ~65 M tons rice consumed (milled)= ~100 M tons rice produced (paddy)

Consumers, processors, exporters and the food industry will drive what rice to grow and how to grow it.

Wage rate for agricultural labour (male), South Asia

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

0

100

200

300

400

500

Wage rate index (2000 =100)

Bangladesh

India

What is the future of smallholder farming?

RICE SEED VALUE CHAIN

Public Breeding

NARS

Farmer

Consumer

•Growing demand (food, energy, etc.)•Economic growth in emerging markets•Private sector involvement•Intellectual property

Seed companies

Processing Industry

DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Trade

Breeding companies

IRRI Vision 2035

• Targeted trait and variety development for smallholder farming environments (with spinoffs)

• Interdisciplinary research on future rice-based production systems

• Healthier rice • Technical services and consulting, including

genomics, breeding technology and services, agronomy, and rice information

• Education, including new, targeted education programs in collaboration with strategic partners

• IR74371-70-1-1 (parents: 1 IRRI, 1 TV)• Cross made in 1997: target was upland rice• Succession of projects and IRRI breeders (3)• Funds: CGIAR core, GCP, Cirad, BMZ, IFAD, BMGF,

government, state, ….• 1 key NARS (CRURRS) + drought network partners• Official release in 2009 in JH and OR for RL• Spreading fast in India through local partners: seed

+ agronomy• Also released in Bangladesh and Nepal

“Rice developed through collaboration”

IR64-drought: first molecular product for drought tolerance

IR64IR64 drought

IR64 drought IR64

IR64 droughtIR64

EntryRajsh

ahiNepalganj Raipur

Hyderabad SS

Hyderabad MS

Hazaribag Rewa

IR64 drought 1525 3472 3956 1684 3800 1604 3731

IR 64 980 1597 2662 660 3085 958 2503

+ QTL - QTL

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.010.0

12.014.0-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500 IR 64ir87729-69-b-b-bir87728-102-b-bir 87707-446-b-b-bir 87707-182-b-b-bir87707-445-b-b-bir87705-444-bir 87705-83-12-bir87705-14-11-bIR87706-215-b-b-bAday sel

Parent 2007 QTL 2.2. & 4.1. introgression 2010

• 0.6- 1.2 t/ha yield advantage under drought .

• Similar high yield under irrigated situation.

• Similar cooking quality• Release: Oct. 2013, Jharkhand, India• Release: Nov. 2013, Nepal• ....

A. Kumar & drought team

VARIETY DEVELOPMENT

TRAIT DISCOVERY

GENE DISCOVERY

MARKER APPLICATIONS

Traits

QTLs, Genes, DNA-sequencesDNA-markers, marker applications

Product profiles - trait packages Varieties, Variety portfoliosBreeding lines, Parental linesBreeder / Foundation seeds

TRAIT D

EVELOPM

ENT

E. Nissilae

Breeding product pipelines

IRRI’s new breeding structure

E. Nissilae

Hyderabad, India

Los Banos,Philippines

IndonesiaMyanmarBangladesh

Sri Lanka

Cambodia, Laos

Vietnam

NepalPakistan

HQ & Hub SEA

HubSA

HubESA

India

TanzaniaMozambique

UgandaBurundi

KenyaMadagascar

Philippines

Others

Other world regions (W-C Africa, E Asia, W-C Asia, LAC, Europe,...)

Bujumbura, Burundi

Africa Rice Breeding Task Force

Rwanda

Malawi

Future cropping systems

Rice-Rice RiceRice

Maize-Rice RiceMaize

Maize-Rice-Rice RiceMaize Rice

Rice Rice

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan

How to manage them?How sustainable?Implications for wider range of ecosystem services?

Others

Future mechanized cropping systems

CEIRS – Consortium for Ecological Intensification of Rice Systems (IRRI, Yara, Bayer, Lindsay, Kellogg’s)

ICALRD

TRD

CTU

IMHEN

CARDI

PhilRice

TNAU

www.riice.org

GRiSP Product 5.3.1. Global rice monitoring and forecasting system

Remote sensing-based information and insurance for crops in emerging economies

Monitoring the stages of growth and planting dates - Mekong

End of ADB

project

HRDCFormed

38 members

HRDC with 68 public & private members

Hybrid Rice Development Consortium (HRDC)

Increased impact through licensing breeding lines to local companies

IRRI Company

Contract growers

(Farmers) CompanyRetail

Company Retail

CompanyRetail

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Informal seed

exchange

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

NARES Customers(Farmers)

Seed sector

Wide access to traits through trait platforms and market segmentation

IRRI Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Directed access to

new improved

technology

Customers(Farmers)

Customers(Farmers)

Companies

Companies

NARES

• Development of new improved technology

• IP protection• Other crops

Industrialized Nations

Developing Nations

3000 new rice genomes

BGI, CAAS, IRRI

indica

aus/boro

basmati/sadri

intermediate

japonica

tropical japonicatemperate japonica

Phylogenetic tree for 200,000 random SNPs

• Global portal for public and private sector• Sequences and analysis of 3,000 genomes• Other rice genome sequences, diversity panels,

GBS data• Sequences of rice microorganisms• Sequences of other grasses (e.g. for C4 project)• Phenotypic data• Gene expression data, gene functions and

networks• Analysis tools• Access to seed, links to other databases

International Rice Informatics Consortium(IRIC)

ACI Ltd. company model in BangladeshFull service provision or farmer capture

Technology Development•Hybrid Rice•Niche rice varieties•Veg, pulse, oil seeds•Farmer machinery•Pesticides

Technology transfer•On-farm trials•Promotion•Product sales

Farmer service provision•Input supply•Finance services•Farmer machines services – laser levelers, planting,

transplanters, herbicide spray, harvesting, storage

Crop purchases- Contracts to buy all crops in cropping system

Processing & Marketing through supermarket chain

INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines

Established 1960

• Product and outcome oriented research strategy – many new initiatives

• ~1400 Staff, 35 nationalities (+500 new since 2007)

• ~700 R&D partners in >60 countries; expanded private sector collaboration

• Increased regional & country presence

• More efficient management• Annual budget of >US$ 95

million; 80 different donors

IRRI’s new regional hub for East and Southern Africa

Bujumbura, Burundi, October 2013

IRRI’s new Plant Growth Facility

Thank you Australia.