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In this issue
Rethinking Global Trade 1APEC—the Way Forward 2Reinforcing
Asia’s Financial System 3Managing Disaster Risks 3ADBI in the News
4Recent Books 5The Path to Fiscal Soundness 6Critique of IMF Advice
on International Reserves 6Selected Upcoming Events 7Recent Working
Papers 7Sowing the Seeds of Agricultural Development 8
ADBI Newswww.adbi.org 2013 Volume 7 Number 1
A s i a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k I n s t i t u t e
Rethinking Global Trade CONFERENCE
Left to right, Professor Richard Baldwin, WTO Director-General
Pascal Lamy, ADBI Dean Masahiro Kawai, and ADBI Research Director
Ganeshan Wignaraja discuss the outlook for Asian and global trade
at the Future of the World Trading System conference held in Geneva
on 11–12 March.
The world trading system is undergoing fundamental changes
because of the rise of emerging economies, which are expanding
trade and investment globally. To examine how Asia can help
facilitate an orderly transition and sustain trade-led growth for
all economies involved, ADBI and the Centre for Trade and Economic
Integration at the Graduate Institute of International and
Development Studies, Geneva, in collaboration with the World Trade
Organization (WTO), jointly held the conference, The Future of the
World Trading System: Asian Perspectives, in Geneva, Switzerland,
on 11–12 March.
ADBI Dean Masahiro Kawai and WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy
delivered the opening remarks and keynote address, respectively,
and spoke on the role of production networks, free trade agreements
(FTAs), and new trade rules in shaping global and Asian trade. More
than 150 participants attended the event, including WTO ambassadors
and trade experts. Several key lessons emerged from the
conference.
First, regional economic integration has been the backbone of
Asia’s growing links into the global supply chains. The development
of supply chains and production networks in Asia owes much of its
success to improvements in physical infrastructure and logistics
services, rapid development of
information and communication technology and falls in trade
barriers and trade costs.
Second, the WTO needs to be reformed in order for it to
recognize the new reality of the development of global production
networks and with it to include new disciplines that can help the
growth of these drivers of global economic integration.
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Established in 1989, APEC has become the preeminent economic
forum in the Asia and Pacific region, the world’s fastest growing
and most economically dynamic area. APEC’s 21 member economies
account for 54% of world economic output and 44% of global
trade.
In the seminar chaired by Dean Masahiro Kawai, The Next Steps
for APEC: An Assessment and Way Forward, held at ADBI on 28
January, three distinguished speakers, Professor Ippei Yamazawa,
Dr. Julius Parrenas, and Professor Shujiro Urata, led the
discussion on APEC’s
economic integration efforts; the role of the APEC Business
Advisory Council (ABAC) in providing business a voice on economic
integration; and the outlook for Japan’s participation in the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.
Professor Yamazawa underscored APEC’s considerable success in
achieving the Bogor Goals, which aim to achieve free and open trade
and investment in the Asia and Pacific region by 2020. Dr. Parrenas
highlighted ABAC’s role in providing the private sector a voice in
the APEC agenda. Professor Urata argued that the longer Japan waits
on the TPP sidelines, the greater the risk of being left behind in
contributing toward the fine print of the negotiated text.
The event concluded that APEC has made progress on regional
trade liberalization, while strengthened peer pressure and closer
private sector engagement can enhance APEC’s role in the future.
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Third, Asia needs to consider practical measures that will
overcome the “noodle bowl” problem, such as encouraging
rationalization and flexibility of rules of origin, upgrading
origin administration, improving business participation in FTA
consultations, and strengthening
institutional support systems for small and medium-sized
enterprises. Furthermore, the time has come for Asia to consider
consolidating the multiple FTAs negotiated by the region into a
single, Asia-wide FTA like the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership. Finally, policymakers should resist temptations for
protectionism and unwind discriminatory measures that were put in
place during the height of the global financial crisis. In the
medium to long term, policymakers may wish to initiate negotiations
on new rules on public procurement, export taxes, and other
less-transparent forms of protection.
A summary of the papers presented in the conference will be
published as an e-book, and the final drafts of the papers will be
published as an edited volume by an international commercial
publisher. �
APEC—the Way Forward CONFERENCE
For more information about this conference, please
visit:www.adbi.org/event/5518.world.trading.system.asian.perspectives.
Note: Concluded FTAs include those that are in effect as well as
those that have been signed but are not yet in effect.Source: ADB’s
Asia Regional Integration Center (ARIC) FTA Database
(www.aric.adb.org), data as of December 2012.
For more information about this event, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5403.next.steps.apec.assessment.way.forward/.Also
recommended: Have APEC Five been penalized for not achieving the
Bogor Goals?
www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2013/03/have-apec-five-been-penalized-for-not-achieving-the-bogor-goals/.
Dean Masahiro Kawai (far left) joins a panel of experts to
assess APEC’s regional trade liberalization efforts.
Rapid Spread of FTAs in Asia
Number of concluded FTAs by country
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gap
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Th
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2000 Concluded FTAs 2012 Concluded FTAs
0
5
10
15
20
25
http://www.adbi.org/event/5518.world.trading.system.asian.perspectives/http://www.adbi.org/event/5403.next.steps.apec.assessment.way.forward/http://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2013/03/have-apec-five-been-penalized-for-not-achieving-the-bogor-goals/
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A s i a n D e v e l o p m e n t B a n k I n s t i t u t e
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For more information about this conference, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5511.strengthening.asian.financial.sector/.
Reinforcing Asia’s Financial System
The 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath, most notably
the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt and banking crisis, have
brought into even sharper relief the centrality of having sound
financial systems for emerging markets. Sound financial systems are
necessary for long-term and balanced development in these countries
as well as to absorb various types of shocks. To examine the issues
related to the effective design of regulatory and policy frameworks
that will promote financial system development and stability, ADBI
and the Japan Financial Services Agency (JFSA) jointly held a
conference on Strengthening the Asian Financial Sector toward
Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Tokyo on 8 March.
Ryutaro Hatanaka, commissioner of the JFSA, delivered the
keynote address that highlighted the need for a comprehensive
review of the various types of financial regulations in Asia, and
examine how these regulations can balance the dual objectives of
achieving financial stability, while, at
the same time, raising economic efficiency in the region. Dean
Masahiro Kawai delivered the opening remarks and spoke on the role
of improving macroprudential supervision and regulation,
strengthening capital adequacy, liquidity standards and leverage
limits, reducing pro-cyclicality in the financial system, and
setting-up adequate resolution regimes to address systemic risk in
the financial system. Furthermore, a number of key lessons emerged
from the conference.
First, progress in financial regulatory reforms has been
impressive but the agenda remains formidable in our search for a
durable stability in the global financial system. Second, the
importance of managing systemic financial risk at the national
level highlights the need for close cooperation and consistent
policies among the central bank, the finance ministry, the
financial supervisory and regulatory agency, and the deposit
insurance corporation in each country. Third, steps need to be
taken to promote the development of local-currency bond markets as
an alternative source of funding so that Asian corporations can
enjoy wider access to long-term local currency funding and also
avoid currency and maturity mismatches that played an important
role in the Asian financial crisis. Finally, the crisis has also
taught us that systemic financial risk needs to be monitored and
controlled not just at the national level but also at the regional
level. �
CONFERENCE
ADBI and the Japan Financial Services Agency conference examined
ways to promote financial system development and stability in
Asia.
Managing Disaster Risks WORKSHOP
Developing countries in Asia and the Pacific are vulnerable to
natural disasters. Of the ten major natural disasters with the
highest death tolls worldwide since 1980, seven have occurred in
developing countries in Asia. The losses in life and property from
these disasters have been vast. In view of the severe economic and
human impact of disasters, it is vital to formulate and implement
country-based and region-wide strategies to address and reduce such
risks and their consequences. DRM experts discuss ways to reduce
disaster risks.
http://www.adbi.org/event/5511.strengthening.asian.financial.sector/
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Disaster Risk Management in Asia and Pacific: Cooperation
Workshop was held at ADBI on 20–21 February to discuss and
coordinate the chapter drafts for a major study on disaster risk
management (DRM) to reflect on the lessons and challenges the
region has experienced in recent decades, and to make appropriate
policy recommendations for the countries in the region. The study
will be carried
out by ADBI and the Regional and Sustainable Development
Department at ADB headquarters.
Dean Masahiro Kawai underscored the importance of the study’s
focal points of supply chain issues, governance, DRM financing, and
regional cooperation.
Project consultants, scholars, policymakers, and senior ADB
staff participated, including Edgar Cua, deputy director general,
East Asian Department; and Ayumi Konishi, deputy director general,
Pacific Department.
Following the workshop, several chapter authors and ADBI staff
visited Sendai, Japan, which suffered extensive damage from the 11
March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, and met with experts from Tohoku
University Disaster Science Institute and Sendai city government
officials to exchange ideas after their visit to the
disaster-affected area.
An interim report will be presented at the 46th Annual Meeting
of the Board of Governors of ADB in New Delhi in 2–5 May, and the
final volume will be published by the end of 2013. �
For more information about this workshop, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5519.disaster.risk.mngt.asia.pacific.workshop/.
Dean Masahiro Kawai was quoted in the Business Times article,
“S’pore may be a better model for Asia than Wall St: ADBI.”
Research Director Ganeshan Wignaraja was cited in the Times of
India article, “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is huge
for Indian businesses” and in the Live Mint article, “India stands
to gain in the Asian integration process.” He was also cited in the
Business Times Singapore articles, “Falling yen won’t bring
business back to Japan” and “Fukushima blows away supply
chains.”
CBT Director Yuqing Xing’s paper, “How the iPhone Widens the
United States Trade Deficit with the People’s Republic of China,”
was cited in the Financial Times article, “Research reshapes
debates on global trade policy”; and the Xinhua News Agency
article, “New measurement may reshape China-US trade ties.” He was
also interviewed by Xinhua News on “Abenomics” and its implication
for the PRC, and by Danish Broadcasting Corp. on whether the PRC is
now the world’s No.1 trading nation.
Senior Consultant for Research Peter Morgan was cited in the
Business Times Singapore article, “Is Abenomics a cover for Tokyo’s
real agenda?” And the Financial
Times published his letter titled, “Japan’s economy not about
‘belief.’”
Research Fellow Victor Pontines was cited in the Business Mirror
article, “ADB airs new tack on money issues.”
The Mainichi Newspaper featured ADBI in the article, “Fiscal
Rule or Fiscal Crisis? Challenges to Fiscal Consolidation from a
Global Perspective.”
NHK World interviewed Dean Masahiro Kawai on Japan’s
participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement.
NHK World interviewed CBT Director Yuqing Xing on pollution
control efforts in the PRC.
NHK World interviewed Research Director Ganeshan Wignaraja on
the outlook for the Indonesian economy.
ADBI in the News
DRM workshop attendees visit Sendai, Japan, to survey recovery
efforts two years after the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami
devastated the region.
http://www.adbi.org/event/5519.disaster.risk.mngt.asia.pacific.workshop/
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Recent Books
New Paradigms for Financial Regulation: Emerging Market
Perspectives
A new book, edited by Dean Masahiro Kawai and Professor Eswar
Prasad, examines the global financial crisis and how it led to a
sweeping reevaluation of frameworks and paradigms for financial
market regulation and macroeconomic policies. Progress has been
made in strengthening these frameworks, but numerous challenges lie
ahead in developing an analytical framework to guide these changes
in a manner that promotes financial stability. Copublished with the
Brookings Institution Press, this book provides new perspectives on
these issues and evaluates recent developments from an emerging
markets perspective.
The objective of New Paradigms for Financial Regulation is to
develop analytical frameworks and policy prescriptions for emerging
markets for balancing the goals of financial development and
broader financial inclusion, with the imperative of strengthening
macroeconomic and financial stability in these economies. The first
two chapters provide an overview of the global regulatory landscape
from the perspective of Asian emerging markets. The book then
discusses how to promote financial development and inclusion in
these emerging markets and to take account of regulatory concerns
and constraints. Different approaches to strengthening
macroeconomic
frameworks that promote financial stability are evaluated.
Finally, the book examines cross-border regulatory coordination,
which is becoming increasingly important as financial institutions
operate freely across national borders and as capital flows serve
as a channel for the rapid international transmission of financial
shocks.
This is the third in a series of books edited by Kawai and
Prasad on international financial regulation and reform in the wake
of the global financial crisis, focusing on emerging markets. The
first two books in the series are Asian Perspectives on Financial
Sector Reforms and Regulation and Financial Market Regulation and
Reforms in Emerging Markets. �
To order a copy, please
visit:www.brookings.edu/research/books/2012/newparadigmsforfinancialregulation.
Patterns of Free Trade Areas in Asia
In this new policy study, Dean Masahiro Kawai and Research
Director Ganeshan Wignaraja address Asia’s rise in global free
trade agreement (FTA) activity, which has sparked concerns about
the erosion of the World Trade Organization (WTO) trading system
and the Asian “noodle bowl” (multiple and possibly conflicting
FTAs).
The study identifies for policymakers how best to minimize the
costs of FTAs while maximizing their benefits. It reexamines key
trends and challenges in Asian FTAs and offers new information from
analysis of FTAs, economic models, and firm surveys. This analysis
supports strengthening business support for FTAs; rationalizing
rules of origin and upgrading their administration; expanded
coverage of agricultural
and services trade; forging comprehensive “WTO-plus” agreements;
and encouraging a region-wide FTA. The analysis suggests a bot
tom-up approach to global t rade l iberal izat ion as a complement
to WTO processes. �
To download a free copy, please
visit:www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/patterns-free-trade-areas-in-asia.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/books/2012/newparadigmsforfinancialregulation
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The Path to Fiscal Soundness CONFERENCE
One side effect of the global financial crisis was massive
increases in government debt in many advanced economies as a result
of shortfalls in tax revenues, expenditures related to economic
stimulus packages and the huge costs of financial-sector bailouts.
This increase put a huge strain on government finances in a number
of countries, and was one of the direct causes of the eurozone
financial crisis. As a result, understanding the path to fiscal
soundness has become a critical policy issue. ADBI, together with
the Japan Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute, held the
conference, Fiscal Rule or Fiscal Crisis? Challenges to Fiscal
Consolidation from a Global Perspective, in Tokyo, 17 January. The
event was co-sponsored by the Mainichi Shimbun. The purpose of the
conference was to analyze the determinants of successful fiscal
policy consolidation and the basis for fiscal rules to assure
fiscal sustainability over the economic cycle, with particular
reference to the situation of Asian emerging economies.
The conference covered the following thematic areas: (i) fiscal
policy soundness: conditions and issues; (ii) desirable rules for
sound fiscal policy; and (iii) long-term public finance issues and
fiscal monitoring in Asia. One of the highlights was a presentation
on fiscal consolidation lessons by Alan Auerbach, professor of
economics, UC Berkeley. Nobumitsu Hayashi, president of the
Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute, gave the opening
remarks, while ADBI Dean Masahiro Kawai and Senior Consultant for
Research Peter Morgan gave a presentation on long-term fiscal
policy issues for emerging Asian economies. �For more information
on this event, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5399.fiscal.rule.fiscal.crisis/.
Critique of IMF Advice on International Reserves SEMINAR
Hans Gensberg, assistant director of the Independent Evaluation
Office (IEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), presented
the results of the IEO’s recent study of the IMF’s advice on
international reserves titled, International Reserves: IMF Concerns
and Country Perspectives, at a seminar at ADBI on 7 March. Against
the background of the rapid growth of
international reserves since 2000 and concerns expressed by the
IMF about the potential implications for the stability of the
international monetary system, this evaluation focused on two
aspects of the IMF’s concerns and advice: the origin, rationale,
and robustness of the IMF’s analysis of the effects of excessive
reserve accumulation on the stability of the international
monetary
system; and the conceptual underpinnings and quality of the
advice on reserve adequacy in the context of bilateral
surveillance.
The conclusions were rather critical of the IMF’s approach,
arguing that the focus on reserve accumulation as a risk for the
international monetary system was not helpful in that it stressed
the symptoms of problems rather than the underlying causes. If the
underlying cause is currency misalignment, then the IMF should
focus on that directly. In particular, there seems to be little
justification for the IMF to focus on the size of reserves as a
measure of risk to international stability. The evaluation also
identified cases of bilateral surveillance where the IMF’s analysis
and advice could have been improved, notably by embedding the
assessment of reserve adequacy in a broader analysis of countries’
specific situation regarding internal and external stability. �
For more information on this event, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5520.intl.reserves.imf.concerns.country/.
Hans Gensberg of the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office
presented the results of a recent study of the IMF’s advice on
international reserves.
ADBI Senior Consultant for Research Peter Morgan (pictured) and
Dean Masahiro Kawai gave a presentation on long-term fiscal policy
issues for Asia’s emerging economies.
http://www.adbi.org/event/5520.intl.reserves.imf.concerns.country/
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22–24 May
12-14 June
Flagship Study: Connectivity in South and Southeast Asia (New
Delhi) This project will conduct an inception workshop,
consultation meetings, and a seminar to present the Interim Report
at the ADB Annual Meeting.
Regional “Think 20” Seminar (Sydney) This conference aims to
take stock and assess the performance of the G20 and identify what
has worked and what has not.
Asian Think Tank Summit (Tokyo)This summit will bring together
senior figures from Asia and the Pacific think tanks to address
pressing medium-term policy issues in the region.
Selected Upcoming Events
Recent Working Papers
From a Centralized to a Decentralized Global Economic
Architecture: An Overview Author: Pradumna B. RanaThis paper argues
that calls for a New Bretton Woods system in the aftermath of the
global economic crisis—similar to the remarkable 1944 Bretton Woods
conference that led to the establishment of various international
economic institutions—are unlikely to be answered. The likely
scenario is that the centralized architecture from before the
global economic crisis will evolve toward a more decentralized and
multilayered global architecture where regional institutions are
linked together to a “senior” global organization in a
complementary manner by rules and regulations. Read Working Paper
401 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.01.15.wp401.decentralized.global.economic.architecture.pdf.
Inadequate Regional Financial Safety Nets Reflect Complacency
Author: Iwan J. AzisTo the extent that financial contagion from the
United States and the eurozone crisis has occurred in Asia, this
paper focuses on the importance of strengthening the regional
financial safety nets. By conjecturing that efforts to prevent and
manage a crisis are the essence of providing such safety nets, the
author argues that efforts made by ASEAN+3 officials, especially in
the provision of liquidity support during a crisis, are far from
adequate. Making the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization more
effective is critical.Read Working Paper 411 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.07.wp411.inadequate.regional.financial.safety.nets.pdf.
Impact of the ASEAN Economic Community on ASEAN Production
Networks Authors: Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong, Chayodom Sabhasri,
and Nath Bunditwattanawong
Empirical evidence suggests that the emergence of international
production networks in East Asia results from market-driven forces
such as vertical specialization and higher production costs in the
home countries and institutional-led reasons such as free trade
agreements. This paper examines two industries—autos, auto parts,
and hard disk drives—to understand international production
networks. Read Working Paper 409 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.02.21.wp409.impact.asean.production.networks.pdf.
Financing Development Cooperation in Northeast Asia Author:
Masahiro Kawai
Infrastructure connectivity in Northeast Asia—comprising the
northeastern People’s Republic of China, Japan, the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, Mongolia, and
the Russian Far East—has been hindered by limited intergovernmental
cooperation. This paper finds that total infrastructure investment
needs for Northeast Asia excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea
could be $63 billion per year over the next 10 years.Read Working
Paper 407 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.02.15.wp407.financing.dev.cooperation.northeast.asia.pdf.
Understanding Innovation in Production Networks in East
AsiaAuthor: Ganeshan Wignaraja
This paper explores the “black box” of innovation in the
electronics production network in East Asia through a mapping
exercise of technological capabilities and an econometric analysis
of exporting in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Thailand, and
the Philippines. Technology-based approaches to trade offer a
plausible explanation for firm-level exporting behavior and
complement the literature on production networks. Read Working
Paper 410 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.01.wp410.understanding.innovation.prod.networks.east.asia.pdf.
Navigating a Changing World Economy: ASEAN, the People’s
Republic of China, and India Authors: Peter A. Petri and Fan
Zhai
Most projections envision continued rapid growth in the members
of ASEAN, the People’s Republic of China, and India over the next
two decades. By 2030, they could quadruple their output, virtually
eliminate extreme poverty, and dramatically transform the lives of
their more than three billion people. This study used a Computable
General Equilibrium model to examine the likely effects of the
region’s growth on trade, resources and the environment.Read
Working Paper 404 at
www.adbi.org/files/2013.01.22.wp404.navigating.changing.world.economy.pdf.
5 May
http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.01.wp410.understanding.innovation.prod.networks.east.asia.pdfhttp://www.adbi.org/files/2013.02.15.wp407.financing.dev.cooperation.northeast.asia.pdfhttp://www.adbi.org/files/2013.01.22.wp404.navigating.changing.world.economy.pdfhttp://www.adbi.org/files/2013.02.21.wp409.impact.asean.production.networks.pdfhttp://www.adbi.org/files/2013.01.15.wp401.decentralized.global.economic.architecture.pdfhttp://www.adbi.org/files/2013.03.07.wp411.inadequate.regional.financial.safety.nets.pdf
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Sowing the Seeds of Agricultural Development TRAINING COURSE
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Publisher: Yasuro NaritaADBI News
Developing efficient supply chains is crucial to enable trade
and expand opportunities for agricultural producers in Cambodia,
Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam (CLMV).
To help CLMV countries expand their understanding of the role of
supply chains within wider agricultural policy and examine
potential approaches to improving national policy initiatives,
ADBI, in partnership with The Mekong Institute, conducted a
training course titled, Developing Agricultural Supply Chains in
Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam, in Khon Kaen, Thailand,
from 18 to 22 February.
Some 30 senior government officials and private sector
representatives from CLMV countries participated in the five-day
course.
Building on the first CLMV Project training program on
developing viable seed industries, this course offered lectures by
international experts, case studies, field visits, and group work
to explore the role of supply chains in enhancing agricultural
productivity. The training focused on policy issues, and analyzed
country perspectives on opportunities and challenges related to
supply
chain management. Trainees learned from experts on agricultural
supply chain management and developed a set of key policy issues
and research questions to help guide future CLMV Project
activities. �For more information on this event, please visit:
www.adbi.org/event/5522.clmv.project.training.program.2/.
Trainees from Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam study how
supply chains enhance agricultural productivity at an ADBI training
course held in Khon Kaen, Thailand, from 18 to 22 February.
ADBI Climbs Think Tank Rankings
ADBI has jumped from 10th to 6th among government-affiliated
think tanks in the 2012 Global Go To Think Tanks Report. ADBI
scored well in other categories—17th best international development
think tank, 24th best think tank outside the United States, and
32nd best think tank in the world. “We are delighted with this
performance. We will continue to strive to
improve our position among the world’s best think tanks,” said
Dean Masahiro Kawai. The report by the University of Pennsylvania,
International Relations Program, is based on an international
survey of 1,950 scholars, public and private donors, policymakers,
and journalists who evaluated more than 6,500 think tanks.