A Little Bit About Me… Serving Green Party councillor in Norwich, where I live with my wife Juliette. I teaches Philosophy at the University of.

A Little Bit About Me…A Little Bit About Me… Serving Green Party councillor in Norwich, where I live with

my wife Juliette.

I teaches Philosophy at the University of East Anglia.

I am also the Lead Green Candidate in the upcoming European Elections.

Passionate about green jobs, better and cheaper public transport, free insulation for every British home and an International agreement on Climate Change.

Hope to join the largest political group of international Greens, who vote together more than any other in European Parliament, and are a real international party.

Here tonight to talk to you about global oil supplies and their relationship with food security…

Peak SoilPeak SoilThe Relationship BetweenThe Relationship Between ‘ ‘Peak Oil’ & Global Food Peak Oil’ & Global Food

SecuritySecurity

Peak OilPeak Oil The moment in time when max global The moment in time when max global petroleum extraction is reached.petroleum extraction is reached.

The concept is based on the observed The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells.field of related oil wells.

Production rate from an oil field over Production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines sometimes rate peaks and then declines sometimes rapidly until the field is depleted.rapidly until the field is depleted.

A Bell shaped production curve, as A Bell shaped production curve, as originally suggested by M. King originally suggested by M. King

Hubbert in 1956Hubbert in 1956

This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nations domestic production rate, and is similarly nations domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production.applied to the global rate of petroleum production.M. King Hubbert created and first used the models M. King Hubbert created and first used the models behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970and 1970

Food SecurityFood Security Food security refers to the availability of food Food security refers to the availability of food

and one's access to it. and one's access to it.

Worldwide around 852 million people are Worldwide around 852 million people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty.chronically hungry due to extreme poverty.

Up to 2 billion people lack food security Up to 2 billion people lack food security intermittently due to varying degrees of poverty. intermittently due to varying degrees of poverty.

Between 1950 and 1984, as the ‘Green Revolution’ Between 1950 and 1984, as the ‘Green Revolution’ transformed agriculture around the globe, world transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%.grain production increased by 250%.

Oil shortages WILL interrupt this food supply. Oil shortages WILL interrupt this food supply.

High dependence of most modern industrial High dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on transport, agricultural and industrial systems on oil will cause the post-peak production decline.oil will cause the post-peak production decline.

Supply shortfalls would cause extreme price Supply shortfalls would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives.conservation measures and use of alternatives.

World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-2004. World demand for oil is projected to 2003-2004. World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030

A significant factor on petroleum demand has been A significant factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth.human population growth.

Addicted to Oil

Global PopulationGlobal Population

In 2000, the United Nations estimated that In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at the the world's population was growing at the rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) rate of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year. per year.

In the last few centuries, the number of In the last few centuries, the number of people living on Earth has increased many people living on Earth has increased many times over. By the year 2000, there were times over. By the year 2000, there were 10 times as many people on Earth as there 10 times as many people on Earth as there were 300 years ago.were 300 years ago.

World population 1950–2000World population 1950–2000

Oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.Oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.

The world’s population in 2030 is expected to be The world’s population in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980double that of 1980

Oil production in 2030 will have declined back to Oil production in 2030 will have declined back to 1980 levels as worldwide demand for oil 1980 levels as worldwide demand for oil significantly out-paces production.significantly out-paces production.

Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contends that Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contends that current population levels are unsustainable, and current population levels are unsustainable, and that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster the United States population would have disaster the United States population would have to be reduced by at least one-third, and world to be reduced by at least one-third, and world population by two-thirds.population by two-thirds.

Global Population

Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial.and industrial.

In terms of oil use, transportation is the In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades.largest growth in demand in recent decades.

Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from 17.7 to 20.7 million barrels a day, a 3 million 17.7 to 20.7 million barrels a day, a 3 million barrel a day increase.barrel a day increase.

China, by comparison, increased consumption from China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3.4 to 7 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.4 to 7 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.6 million barrels a day, in the same time frame3.6 million barrels a day, in the same time frame..

Energy Demand

Global Energy ConsumptionGlobal Energy Consumption

Agricultural Reliance on Fossil FuelsAgricultural Reliance on Fossil Fuels Supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern intensive Supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern intensive

agriculture techniques.agriculture techniques.

A fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices A fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decadesand unprecedented famine in the coming decades

The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is ammonia production (for fertilizer) via the Haber process, ammonia production (for fertilizer) via the Haber process, which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture.which is essential to high-yielding intensive agriculture.

The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer production is The specific fossil fuel input to fertilizer production is primarily natural gas, to provide hydrogen via steam primarily natural gas, to provide hydrogen via steam reforming. reforming.

However, given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity, However, given sufficient supplies of renewable electricity, hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods hydrogen can be generated without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis.such as electrolysis.

Agricultural Reliance on Fossil FuelsAgricultural Reliance on Fossil Fuels

The Vemork hydroelectric plant in Norway used its The Vemork hydroelectric plant in Norway used its surplus electricity output to generate renewable surplus electricity output to generate renewable ammonia from 1911 to 1979ammonia from 1911 to 1979

Iceland currently generates ammonia using the Iceland currently generates ammonia using the electrical output from its hydroelectric and electrical output from its hydroelectric and geothermal power plants.geothermal power plants.

Unfortunately, almost every large-scale source of Unfortunately, almost every large-scale source of renewable energy still requires petroleum inputs, renewable energy still requires petroleum inputs, such as to fuel construction equipment and to such as to fuel construction equipment and to transport workers and materialtransport workers and material

If the supply of petroleum should fall faster than If the supply of petroleum should fall faster than people can learn how to build renewable energy people can learn how to build renewable energy infrastructure using only renewable inputs, it may infrastructure using only renewable inputs, it may not be possible to maintain the intensive agriculture not be possible to maintain the intensive agriculture necessary to support the high global population.necessary to support the high global population.

Modern or industrialized agriculture is dependent on Modern or industrialized agriculture is dependent on petroleum in two fundamental ways: petroleum in two fundamental ways:

Cultivation - Getting the crop from seed to harvest Cultivation - Getting the crop from seed to harvest (fertilizers, pesticides etc).(fertilizers, pesticides etc).

Transport - Getting the harvest from the farm to the Transport - Getting the harvest from the farm to the consumer's refrigerator.consumer's refrigerator.

Petroleum is providing the energy required to process Petroleum is providing the energy required to process food before it reaches the market. It takes the energy food before it reaches the market. It takes the energy equivalent of a half-gallon of gasoline to produce a equivalent of a half-gallon of gasoline to produce a two-pound bag of breakfast cereal.two-pound bag of breakfast cereal.

The kiwi from New Zealand, the asparagus from The kiwi from New Zealand, the asparagus from Argentina, the broccoli from Guatemala - Food items on Argentina, the broccoli from Guatemala - Food items on the consumer's plate travel an average of 1,500 miles the consumer's plate travel an average of 1,500 miles to get there.to get there.

Agricultural Reliance on Fossil Fuels

The The DangersDangers of Intensive Farming of Intensive Farming Intensive farming or intensive agriculture is an Intensive farming or intensive agriculture is an

agricultural production system characterized by agricultural production system characterized by the high inputs of capital, labour, or heavy usage the high inputs of capital, labour, or heavy usage of technologies such as pesticides and chemical of technologies such as pesticides and chemical fertilizers relative to land area.fertilizers relative to land area.

Modern day forms of intensive crop based Modern day forms of intensive crop based agriculture also involve the use of mechanical agriculture also involve the use of mechanical ploughing, herbicides, fungicides and plant growth ploughing, herbicides, fungicides and plant growth regulators.regulators.

These techniques have enabled a substantial These techniques have enabled a substantial increase in production, yet have also dramatically increase in production, yet have also dramatically increased environmental pollution by: increased environmental pollution by:

Increasing erosion.Increasing erosion.

Poisoning water with agricultural chemicals.Poisoning water with agricultural chemicals.

Destroying forests to make room for farmland.Destroying forests to make room for farmland.

The Dangers of Intensive FarmingThe Dangers of Intensive Farming Intensive farming alters the environment in many ways:Intensive farming alters the environment in many ways:

Limits or destroys the natural habitat of most wild Limits or destroys the natural habitat of most wild creatures, and leads to soil erosion.creatures, and leads to soil erosion.

Fertilizers drain into rivers and lakes, altering their Fertilizers drain into rivers and lakes, altering their biology.biology.

Pesticides generally kill useful insects as well as Pesticides generally kill useful insects as well as those that destroy crops.those that destroy crops.

Intensive farming IS NOT sustainable - It often results Intensive farming IS NOT sustainable - It often results in desertification, or land that is so poisonous and in desertification, or land that is so poisonous and eroded that nothing else will grow there.eroded that nothing else will grow there.

Requires large amounts of energy input to produce, Requires large amounts of energy input to produce, transport, and apply chemical fertilizers/pesticides.transport, and apply chemical fertilizers/pesticides.

Use of pesticides have numerous negative health effects Use of pesticides have numerous negative health effects in workers who apply them, people that live nearby the in workers who apply them, people that live nearby the area of application or downstream/downwind from it, and area of application or downstream/downwind from it, and consumers who eat the pesticides which remain on their consumers who eat the pesticides which remain on their food.food.

The term sustainable agriculture means an The term sustainable agriculture means an integrated system of plant and animal production integrated system of plant and animal production practices having a site-specific application that practices having a site-specific application that will, over the long term:will, over the long term:

– Satisfy human food and fiber needsSatisfy human food and fiber needs– Enhance environmental quality and the natural Enhance environmental quality and the natural

resource base upon which the agricultural economy resource base upon which the agricultural economy dependsdepends

– Make the most efficient use of nonrenewable resources Make the most efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm resources and integrate, where and on-farm resources and integrate, where appropriate, natural biological cycles and controlsappropriate, natural biological cycles and controls

– Sustain the economic viability of farm operationsSustain the economic viability of farm operations– Enhance the quality of life for farmers and society Enhance the quality of life for farmers and society

as a wholeas a whole

Sustainable Agriculture as defined by the 1990 farm bill

Sustainable FarmingSustainable Farming Sustainable farming integrates three main Sustainable farming integrates three main goals:goals:

Environmental stewardship. Environmental stewardship.

Farm profitability.Farm profitability.

Prosperous farming communities.Prosperous farming communities.

These goals have been defined by a variety These goals have been defined by a variety of disciplines and may be looked at from of disciplines and may be looked at from the vantage point of the farmer or the the vantage point of the farmer or the consumer.consumer.

Sustainable FarmingSustainable Farming Intensive Farming refers to the ability of Intensive Farming refers to the ability of a farm to produce food indefinitely, a farm to produce food indefinitely, without causing severe or irreversible without causing severe or irreversible damage to ecosystem health. The two key damage to ecosystem health. The two key issues are:issues are:

Biophysical - The long-term effects of Biophysical - The long-term effects of various chemicals on soil properties and various chemicals on soil properties and processes essential for crop productivity.processes essential for crop productivity.

Socio-economic - The long-term ability of Socio-economic - The long-term ability of farmers to obtain inputs and manage farmers to obtain inputs and manage resources such as labour.resources such as labour.

Sustainable agriculture depends on replenishing the soil Sustainable agriculture depends on replenishing the soil while minimizing the use of non-renewable resources, while minimizing the use of non-renewable resources, such as natural gas (used in converting atmospheric such as natural gas (used in converting atmospheric nitrogen into synthetic fertilizer), or mineral ores nitrogen into synthetic fertilizer), or mineral ores (e.g., phosphate). Possible sources of nitrogen that (e.g., phosphate). Possible sources of nitrogen that would, in principle, be available indefinitely, include:would, in principle, be available indefinitely, include:

Recycling crop waste and livestock or human manureRecycling crop waste and livestock or human manure

Growing legume crops and forages such as peanuts or Growing legume crops and forages such as peanuts or alfalfa that form symbioses with nitrogen-fixing alfalfa that form symbioses with nitrogen-fixing bacteria (rhizobia)bacteria (rhizobia)

Hydrogen required for industrial production of Nitrogen Hydrogen required for industrial production of Nitrogen (via the Haber process) could be made by electrolysis of (via the Haber process) could be made by electrolysis of water using electricity perhaps from solar cells or water using electricity perhaps from solar cells or windmills rather from natural gas.windmills rather from natural gas.

Sustainable Farming

Food SecurityFood Security The consumer's growing awareness of the The consumer's growing awareness of the

vulnerability to oil availability and prices is one vulnerability to oil availability and prices is one of several factors fuelling current interest in of several factors fuelling current interest in organic agriculture and other sustainable farming organic agriculture and other sustainable farming methods.methods.

Some farmers using modern organic-farming methods Some farmers using modern organic-farming methods have reported yields as high as those available from have reported yields as high as those available from conventional farming but without the use of fossil-conventional farming but without the use of fossil-fuel-intensive artificial fertilizers or pesticides. fuel-intensive artificial fertilizers or pesticides.

Unfortunately, the reconditioning of soil to restore Unfortunately, the reconditioning of soil to restore nutrients lost during the use of intensive nutrients lost during the use of intensive monoculture agriculture techniques made possible by monoculture agriculture techniques made possible by petroleum-based technology will take time.petroleum-based technology will take time.

In ConclusionIn Conclusion Time to act is now.Time to act is now.

Reliance on overseas oil is bad news - not just for the Reliance on overseas oil is bad news - not just for the environment but for our economy.environment but for our economy.

Soil will die if we don’t start protecting it NOW.Soil will die if we don’t start protecting it NOW.

In the event of an oil crisis, food production prices will soar In the event of an oil crisis, food production prices will soar and British people will suffer. and British people will suffer.

Green New Deal would see many jobs created in this century’s Green New Deal would see many jobs created in this century’s ‘Green Revolution’.‘Green Revolution’.

Eastern Region can be a global leader in switch to sustainable Eastern Region can be a global leader in switch to sustainable farming.farming.

Vote Green on June 4th!Vote Green on June 4th!