A collaboration between Environment Canada will allow for a detailed analysis of the GOES-R FLS products that is not possible with standard surface based measurements The aviation community has developed four categories of flight rules dependent upon cloud ceiling and surface visibility. The goal of the GOES-R fog/low stratus algorithm is to determine the probability that MVFR, IFR and LIFR conditions are present for a given satellite pixel. Introduction of a New Suite of Fog/Low Stratus (FLS) Products into NWS Operations via the Satellite Proving Ground Michael Pavolonis, Corey Calvert*, Scott Lindstrom* and Chad Gravelle** NOAA/NESDIS/Center for Satellite Applications and Research Advanced Satellite Product Branch, Madison Wisconsin *Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin **Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Kansas City, Missouri MVFRLIFRIFR Fused Fog/Low Cloud Detection Approach Satellite Data Nave Bayesian Model Clear Sky RTM - Minimum channel requirement: 0.65, 3.9, 6.7/7.3, 11, and 12/13.3 m -Previous image for temporal continuity (GEO only) -Cloud Phase MVFR, IFR, and LIFR Probability + + Static Ancillary Data - DEM -Surface Type -Surface Emissivity Daily SST Data 0.25 degree OISST + NWP - Surface Temperature -Profiles of T and q -RUC/RAP (2-3 hr forecast) or GFS (12 hr forecast ) NWP RH Profiles -RUC/RAP (2-3 hr forecast) or GFS (12 hr forecast) ***IMPORTANT: Other sources of relevant data (e.g. sfc obs) influence results through the model fields Total run time: minutes Fog/Low Stratus Definition Cloud Thickness The cloud thickness can be estimated empirically using the nighttime 3.9 micron emissivity or daytime LWP Cloud Thickness Value (feet) Number of Hours after Sunrise for Fog to Dissipate The dissipation time for radiation fog can be estimated using the last cloud thickness estimate before sunrise GOES-R FLS Algorithm Created Object-based logic implemented Cloud thickness product created FLS products injected to AWIPS via LDM 80% ATBD submitted to GOES-R AWG Specific MVFR/IFR probabilities calculated 100% ATBD submitted to GOES-R AWG Nave Bayesian methodology implemented Mesoscale NWP model capability added FLS probabilities calculated for ice/overlapping cloud pixels LIFR probabilities added Temporal capabilities added Added MTSAT capability Added MSG and MODIS capability Future improvements GOES-R Fog/Low Stratus Algorithm Timeline Phase I: AWG development cycle Phase II: Products and training first introduced to small group of forecasters in AK and MKX. Several product upgrades were also implemented. Phase III: Training material was significantly upgraded Phase IV: Larger scale (24 WFOs; 3 NCs) operational evaluation; operational impacts NWS Central Region survey results gathered by Chad Gravelle Assessing Impacts Formal survey results indicate that the vast majority of forecasters have a very favorable opinion of the GOES-R AWG FLS products What operational application were the the GOES-R AWG FLS products applied to? How did the GOES-R FLS products perform when compared to legacy fog products? Did these probability trends give confidence for the formation or dissipation of FLS? How useful was the GOES-R cloud thickness product in assisting with estimating fog dissipation? Overall, how useful did you find the GOES-R FLS products?How likely are you to use the GOES-R FLS products again when diagnosing FLS? The GOES-R AWG FLS products have been cited in at least 50 AFDs since March 2012 Real-World Product Usage Environment Canada Field Campaign Sites St. Johns, Newfoundland GOES-R FLS Products in GFE Gridded Aviation Forecast Program at WFO Greenville-Spartanburg The IFR and MVFR probabilities are now used to adjust the grids from which Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs) are created The forecasters at KTBW (WFO Tampa Bay, FL) used the GOES-R fog/low stratus products to brief the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) during a fog event in the NE Gulf of Mexico in early February Through coordination with the NWS and other agencies, restrictions were put in place to keep large vessels either in port or anchored at sea until the fog lifted. The GOES-R IFR and LIFR probability products were very helpful in identifying the extent of the hazardous areas so that navigation restrictions could be confined to only necessary areas. At the end of the briefing the USCG Commander Omar told the forecasters at KTBW, Great weather information and thank you for providing us support on the call. KTBW routinely utilizes the GOES-R AWG FLS products, including during high impact events The GOES-R AWG FLS products were used in daily DISCOVER-AQ weather briefings provided by HNX
