9th july (thursday),2015 daily exclusive oryza e rice newsletter by riceplus magazine

1 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine |

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July 9 ,2015




Central Bank's Forex Restriction Policy May

Push Up Rice Prices in Nigeria, Say Analysts

Jul 08, 2015

The Central Bank of Nigeria's policy to restrict foreign exchange to rice importers is likely to

have negative repercussions on rice prices in the short-run, according to local sources.

They noted that though the Central Bank defended its move saying the denial of foreign

exchange to importers would encourage local production, create jobs and reduce pressure on the

country's depleting forex reserves, the action would lead to increase in rice prices in the short-run

as import substitution is not possible immediately. Moreover, importing rice in this situation may

prove costly and the effect is to be borne by the consumers, said an expert.




However, they agreed that the policy would enhance local rice production in the country as well

as improve living standards of farmers in the long run. Increased prices would force consumers

to seek more locally produced rice, which in turn would encourage farmers to grow more.

They also noted that importers would experience difficulties in adjusting to the policy and a

parallel market for dollars may develop forcing importers to pay more for dollars. These actions

would lead to a spike in inflation, they said.

Currently, naira is trading at about N230 per dollar in the black market, about 16% above the

official trading rate of N197 per dollar.

Nigeria has been a net importer of rice and imports over 50% of its annual rice consumption

needs. USDA estimates the country to produce 2.83 million tons of milled rice in the MY 2014-

15 (October 2014 - September 2014) and import about 4 million tons. The country's consumption

needs during the year are estimated at around 6.4 million tons.

The UN's FAO estimated Nigeria's rice imports to decline by about 3.3% to around 2.9 million

tons in 2015.

Thailand, India, Pakistan Rice Sellers

Increase Some of Their Quotes Today;

Vietnam Rice Quotes Unchanged

Jul 08, 2015

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5

per ton each to around $380-$390 per ton and $355-$365 per ton respectively today. India rice

sellers increased their quotes for 100% broken rice and parboiled rice by about $15 per ton and

$5 per ton to around $295-$305 per ton and $370-$380 per ton, respectively. Pakistan rice sellers

increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $335-$345 per ton.

Vietnam rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice




Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday

and about $35 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $345 - $355 per ton. India

5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%

rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday

and about $30 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325- $335 per ton. India

25% rice is indicated at around $350 - $360, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice

shown at around $335 - $345per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $385 - $395 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $370- $380 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $45 per

ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $415 - $425 per

ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, on par with Vietnam

100% broken rice shown at around $315 - $325 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at

around $295 - $305 per ton, up about $15 per ton from yesterday and about $10 per ton premium

on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

EU Average Milled Rice Prices Show Slight

Movements in May 2015

Jul 08, 2015

Average monthly milled rice prices in all 28 countries of the European Union (EU) showed some

slight movements in the beginning of May 2015, according to Community Price Dashboard

issued by EU on July 1, 2015.




Average monthly Japonica milled rice varieties increased about 1.2% to around 860 euros (about

$946) per ton from previous month, and increased about 57.8% from their year ago levels.

Average monthly Indica milled rice varieties declined about 0.8% to around 635 euros per ton

(around $698 per ton) from the previous month, but increased about 32.3% from their year ago

levels.

The Community price dashboard provides a monthly summary of commodity price data for the

most representative agricultural inputs, agricultural products and consumer food prices, at EU

and world level.

Rice data refer to Japonica Italy and Indica Italy, according to DG Agriculture and Rural

Development, data based on EU Member States communications.

Global Rice Quotes

July 8th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 390-400 ↑

Vietnam 5% broken 345-355 ↔

India 5% broken 380-390 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 450-460 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 355-365 ↑





Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↑

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 350-360 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 440-450 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 385-395 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 370-380 ↑

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 825-835 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 490-500 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔




India 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↑

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 350-360 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Indigenous Rice Varieties Regaining

Popularity in India

Jul 08, 2015




Indian rice farmers, especially in the state of West Bengal, have been preferring planting old,

traditional indigenous rice varieties instead of high-yielding rice varieties, which were introduced

as part of the green revolution in 1960s and 70s, due to their aromatic taste, low production costs

and resilience to climate change, according to local sources.

Farmers have been trying to popularize the traditional/folk varieties before they disappear

forever. They say though the yield from the traditional varieties in low, their production cost is

also low and they fetch a higher price in the market. Particularly, they require less amount of

fertilizer, says Assistant Director of Agriculture in Nadia district.

"More and more consumers are asking for the folk varieties these days as the taste is better.

Farmers are also showing lot of interest in these varieties, which they had once forgotten," the

Joint Director of Agriculture at the Chinsurah rice research station was quoted.

Farmers in West Bengal's rice growing areas of Burdwan, South and North 24 Parganas,

Midnapore, Nadia and Howrah have reportedly given up high-yielding modern rice varieties and

are using traditional varieties for the last couple of years. The aromatic rice variety

'Gobindobhog' has become more popular among the farmers.

The Agriculture Training Center in Nadia district has nearly 300 traditional varieties , of which

51 are aromatic.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Add to Recent Gains as Market

Breaches $11.000 per cwt Level; Corn and

Beans Turn Higher while Wheat Continues to

Lag

Jul 08, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 10.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) higher at

$11.000 per cwt (about $243 per ton). The other grains closed mostly higher today; Soybeans

closed about 0.3% higher at $9.8825 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $5.7750 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.3% higher at $4.2450 per bushel.




Trading on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange was suspended in late-morning trade on

Wednesday. U.S. stocks held lower, plunging more than 1% as continued concerns about Greece

and the extended selloff in the Chinese market weighed on investor sentiment. Other exchanges,

however, continued trading normally. The NYSE later said that all open orders amid the halt will

be cancelled. U.S. officials also said there were no indications of a cyberattack. In China, the

Shanghai Composite closed nearly 6 percent lower despite supportive government measures. The

index has fallen more than 30% from its mid-June peak amid frequent bouts of extreme

volatility.

Analysts say the turbulence is starting to unnerve regional investors. European stocks traded

higher on Thursday amid hopes of a Greece deal. However, the indices are more than 2% lower

for the week so far. The Greek government has until Friday morning to present detailed reform

proposals to allow a bailout deal by a Sunday summit. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras

addressed the European Parliament on Wednesday, lambasting Europe's advocacy of austerity

and the efficacy of Greece's bailout programs since 2010, but promised a detailed, "concrete"

deal would be presented in the next two to three days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 187 points, or 1.05%, at 17,589. The S&P 500

traded down 23 points, or 1.11%, at 2,058, with materials leading all 10 sectors lower. The

Nasdaq traded down 68 points, or 1.38%, at 4,928. Gold is trading about 0.9% higher, crude oil

is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading at about 0.5% lower at

about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Tuesday, there were 1,033 contracts traded, down from 2,154 contracts traded on Monday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 218 contracts to 9,302.

FAO Estimates 2015 Global Milled Rice

Trade to Decline Slightly Due to Lower

Import Demand

Jul 08, 2015




The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates 2015 global rice trade to decline

about 2% to around 42 million tons from around 42.8 million tons in 2014 due to lower demand

from most of the rice importing countries reflecting generally good crops this year.

The decline can also be attributed to imposition of new protective measures by some

governments, amid concerns of cheap imports undermining local production. In Asia, rice

imports are expected to decline in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Timor Leste. Imports in

African countries are also expected to fall, depressed by currency depreciations and large




carryovers from large imports in 2014. The FAO expects rice imports to increase in Latin

America, Europe, North America and Australia.

On the exports side, the FAO estimates supplies from India, Vietnam, Argentina, Australia,

Brazil and Uruguay to decline due to stiff competition and uncompetitive prices. On the other

hand, it projects exports by Cambodia, China (Mainland), Ecuador, the European Union,

Guyana, Myanmar, Pakistan, Paraguay, the Russian Federation and the U.S. to increase. The

FAO expects Thailand's exports to remain at last year's level of 10.9 million tons despite

production falls as the auctioning of rice from stockpiles is expected to ease the supply tightness.

The FAO estimates 2015-16 global paddy production to increase about 0.9% to around 749.1

million tons (around 499.3 million tons, basis milled) from around 741.8 million tons (around

497 million tons, basis milled). Asia paddy production is estimated at 678 million tons, up about

1.1% from last year. Production increases are expected in Indonesia, China, Iran, Malaysia,

Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor Leste and Turkey. However, it expects declines in India,

Bangladesh, the Chinese Province of Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea, Nepal, Pakistan, the

Philippines and Viet Nam, amid a combination of unfavourable weather and/or unattractive

prices. African output is forecast at 28.7 million tons, up about 1% from last year.

Production increases are likely in west African countries and Madagascar. Production declines

are anticipated in Egypt and Nigeria. In Latin America and the Caribbean, production is

estimated at around 28.4 million tons, up about 2.4% from last year. Production is expected to

increase in Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay and Peru, and decline in Central America and the

Caribbean. It expects production to decline in the U.S. by 6% due to less attractive prices and a

four year-long drought in California. Production is also expected to increase in the EU and the

Russian Federation but decline in Australia by 12%.

The UN agency estimates 2015-16 global rice utilization at around 507.2 million tons (basis,

milled), up about 6.9 million tons from last year on expectations of a greater use of rice for feed

and industrial processing. It expects about 419.6 million tons to be consumed as food, an

increase of about 5.8 million tons from last year. It estimates global per-capita food use at around

57.4 kilograms.

The FAO estimates global rice stocks at 169.4 million tons, down about 4.4% from last year due

to offloading of inventories in the five major exporting countries. Stock declines are expected in

India, Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal, Thailand, Vietnam and the U.S.




The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.8%, down from last year's 34.9%.

Vietnam Rice Exports Decline Sharply in

May 2015

Jul 08, 2015

Vietnam's rice exports have declined sharply in May 2015 reportedly due to a decline in export

demand and stiff competition from India and Thailand. While share of Vietnam's rice exports to

Asian, American and Australian destinations declined in May 2015, its share of exports to Africa

and Europe increased during the month.




Vietnam has exported around 526,133 tons of rice in May 2015, down about 21% from around

668,177 tons exported in April 2015, and down about 10% from around 585,346 tons exported in

May 2014.

Asia accounted for around 375,569 tons (about 71% of total rice exports by Vietnam in May

2015) in May 2015. Month-on-month, Vietnam's rice exports to Asian destinations declined

about 28% from around 520,386 tons exported in April 2015. Year-on-year, they declined about

24.5% from around 497,526 tons exported in May 2014.

Vietnam exported around 84,371 tons of rice to Africa (about 16% of total May 2015 exports) in

May 2015, up about 17% from around 71,993 tons exported in April 2015, and over two times

from around 35,008 tons exported in May 2014, according to USDA.

Vietnam exported around 58,239 tons of rice to American destinations (about 11% of May 2015

exports), down about 14% from around 67,757 tons exported in April 2015, and up about 35.5%

from around 42,961 tons exported in May 2014.

Vietnam's exports to Australia (about 0.6% of May 2015 exports) declined about 28% to around

3,391 tons in May 2015 from around 4,729 tons exported in April 2015 and increased about 4.3

times from around 797 tons exported in May 2014.

Vietnam's exports to Europe and CIS countries (about 0.8% of total May 2015 exports)

accounted for around 4,563 tons in May 2015, up about 38% from around 3,312 tons exported in

April 2015 and down about 50% from around 9,054 tons exported in May 2014.

In terms of grade, 5% broken rice exports accounted for around 174,132 tons (or, about 33% of

total May 2015 exports); Jasmine rice exports accounted for around 114,903 tons (or, about 22%

of total May 2015 exports); 15% broken rice exports accounted for around 73,940 tons (or, about

14% of total exports in May 2015); 25% broken rice exports accounted for around 3,265 tons (or,

about 0.6% of total exports in May 2015); glutinous rice exports accounted for around 69,611

tons (or, about 13% of total May 2015 exports); and 10%, 100% and other varieties accounted

for around 90,282 tons (or, about 17% of total exports in May 2015).

South Korea Buys 44,104 Tons of Non-

Glutinous Brown Rice in Tender




Jul 08, 2015

South Korea's state run Agro Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation (KAFTC) has purchased

44,104 tons of non-glutinous brown rice of Chinese, U.S. and Thai origins for delivery between

October and December, according to a statement on its website.KAFTC originally sought to

purchase about 59,104 tons of non-glutinous rice via six tenders for which the bidding took place

on July 3, 2015.It announced results for 15,000 tons of non-glutinous brown rice via one tender

on the same day. The results for the remaining 44,104 tons of non-glutinous brown rice are as

follows:

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Hold Steady Overnight While

Most Commodities Soften on Concerns over

China and Greece

Jul 08, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen paused 1.5 cents per cwt (about

$0.33 per ton) higher at $10.910 per cwt (about $241 per ton) ahead of floor trading in

Chicago. The other grains are seen trading lower this morning; soybeans are currently seen

trading about 0.2% lower, wheat is listed about 1.4% lower and corn is currently noted

unchanged.

U.S. stock index futures indicated a sharply lower open on Wednesday as worries over China's

relentless selloff and Greece's debt crisis weighed on investor sentiment. Dow Futures trimmed

losses, trading about 140 points lower amid news that Greece was closer to submitting concrete

proposals. Earlier, futures were as much as 200 points lower, following another painful trading

session in China which saw stocks close down nearly 6%, following an 8% slide earlier in the

session. The Shanghai Composite has fallen more than 30% from its mid-June peak amid

frequent bouts of extreme volatility and analysts say the turbulence is starting to unnerve

regional investors.

Commodities were hit on Tuesday on mounting China fears and remained under pressure

in Wednesday trade. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will also be in

http://oryza.com/23037/south-korea-seeks-buy-59104-tons-non-glutinous-brown-rice-international-tenders

http://oryza.com/23120/south-korea-buys-15000-tons-non-glutinous-brown-rice-china-tender




focus, with traders scanning the Federal Reserve's June meeting report for hints on interest rate

rise timing. Greek- and Chinese-related developments should continue to dominate market focus,

but the minutes of that FOMC meeting Wednesday should get the market's attention when

released at 2 p.m. ET. Gold is currently trading about 0.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about

0.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% lower at 8:15amChicago time.

Drought-Inducing El Nino Won't Affect

Cambodia Rice Production, Say Officials

Jul 08, 2015

Cambodia is less likely to be affected by the El Nino

weather pattern and the country is expected to receive

rainfall this week, the local sources quoted the spokesman

of the Ministry of Water Resource and Meteorology.The

Ministry spokesman told reporters that a dry spell

associated with the El Nino weather pattern, which is

expected to lower rice output in Thailand, wouldn't have

same impact on Cambodia. “The rainfall is expected to be

even better than last year," he said. The official also noted that dry spell, which usually occurs in

the month of July every year is not expected to occur this year and the country will receive heavy

rainfall from this week until September encouraging the rice planting operations.

The Director of the Rice Department under the Ministry of Agriculture noted that planting has

already been started in nearly 30% of over 2 million hectares of rice area. “The ministry is

pushing to increase rice cultivation area this year, and with enough rainfalls, we hope to receive

better amount of rice output from last year,” he said.

USDA estimates Cambodia MY 2014-15 (January 2015 - December 2015) paddy rice production

at around 7.344 million tons (around 4.7 million tons, milled basis), slightly down from around

7.383 million tons (around 4.725 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14. It estimates

Cambodia to export around 1.1 million tons of rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1

million tons in 2014.

9th july (thursday),2015 daily exclusive oryza e rice newsletter by riceplus magazine

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