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Global financial crisis and
the impact on the InsuranceIndustry
1122thth GlobalGlobal
ConferenceConference of of
ActuariesActuaries
Mumbai,Mumbai, IndiaIndia
18/1918/19 FebruaryFebruary
2121
!a"id!a"id Ale#ander Ale#ander
!irector !irector
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$%iss$%iss &e&e
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&is' (erception is Chan)in)
CSFI asked 403
nsurance e xecutives
from around the
orld about their top
fears
$ource* C$FI and (%C
$lide 2
All Insurers 2009
In"estment
performance
+uity mar'ets
Capital a"ailability
Macro-economic
trends
.oo muchre)ulation
Top Fears of
Insurance Co Execs
All Insurers 2007
1 .oo muchre)ulation
2 atural
catastrophes
0 Mana)ement
uality
Climate chan)e
Mana)in) thepricin) cycle
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.oday3s topics
$tate of the Global Financial Mar'et
Insurance .rends and 4pportunities
Asia
Conclusions
$lide 0
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.he %orld has not seen many
crises li'e the recent one
2008
1998 - 2007
1988 - 1997
1978 - 1987
1968 - 1977
1958 - 1967
1948 - 1957
1825 - 1947
ormal
distribution fit
We are here
2008
$lide 5$ stoc' mar'et, total returns in 6, 182 - 28 $ource* A#a
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Global economy*unemployment
%ill
risefurthe
r in
the7est
inflati
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ne!plo"!en#
5nemployment rosesubstantially in the 5$, muchless in
5
In Continental +urope
unemployment is e#pectedto rise %hen short term
labour pro)rams e#pire
Infla#$on
Inflation %ill remain
"ery lo% or ne)ati"e
ne#t year in most
mar'ets due to lar)e
economic slac'
Mar'et inflatione#pectations shifted
a%ay from a
deflationary scenario to
a lo% inflation scenario
5nemployment rates
1
2
6
1
8 82 8 8: 88 992 9 9: 98 2 : 8
5nited $tates5nited in)domGermany
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;rea'-e"en inflation,
1yr ;onds
>
0>
0>
2>
2>
1>
1>
>
>
1 2 0 : ? 8 9
5$5
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!espite manydifferences in the
underlyin)economies, the;&IC
stoc' mar'ets
ha"e beencorrelated
E!er%$n% &ar'e# In($ces )e#urnInclu($n% )uss$a E!er%$n%
& ' # I ($ ) # E l ($
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2
1
1
;o"espa Inde# 96 10>
$ ote* indices ha"e been rebased to 1 at 01/12/1999
C u n - ?
C u n - 8
! e c - 9 9
C u n -
C u n - 2
C u n - 1
! e c - 1
C u n -
u n - ?
u n - 9
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.oday3s topics
$tate of the Global Financial Mar'et
Insurance .rends and 4pportunities
Asia
Conclusions
$lide ?
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.he insurance industry has been
affected by the crisis but %as not the cause
+uity indices, rebased* 1>1>2? D 11
12
subprime crisis E ban'in) crisis E asset crisis E recession
1 -16
8
: $;C boost
loan
pro"isions
Fed and +C;respond to
liuiditysuee@e
;an's announce
;ear $tearnsmer)ed into
( Mor)an
eh!an (efaul#.
-216
2 ;ear $tearnshed)e fund losssi)nificant losses AI/ sae(
an-? Mar-? May-? ul-? $ep-? o"-? an-8 Mar-8 May-8 ul-8 $ep-8 o"-8 an-9 Mar-9 May-9
M$CI 7orld Inde# $( $( 5$ Hife insurance $( 5$ on-Hife insur ance
$lide 8 $ource* ;loomber), $%iss &e +conomic &esearch Consultin)
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(remiums contract in both the life
and non-life sector
1re!$u! $nco!e $n l$fe
$nsurance (ecl$ne( $n
2008-09. !a$nl" (ue #o
fall$n% (e!an( for un$#-
l$n'e( pro(uc#s
Global life and non-life real premium )ro%th, 6
16
16
:6
12C pre!$u! %ro3#h $ssu4(ue( (ue #o #heecono!$c cr$s$s. #hou%hsuppor#e( 4" fron#-loa($n%
of $nfras#ruc#urecons#ruc#$on proec#s
26
-26
-:61991 1990 199 199? 1999 21 20 2 2? 29
on-life Hife
$lide 9 $ource* $%iss &e +conomic &esearch Consultin)
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Globally, life insurers reported
sharp drops in capital and sol"ency
$ol"ency in life insurance drops sharply, >> ne% business temporarily do%n
1J8 *400 n
86 8 6
1J:
1J
1J2
1J
8
:
?6
:6
6
6
06
26
?
:
016
116
-16
86 86
106
?6
-86
06
26
16
6
2
22 20 2 2 2: 2? 28 29 21
16
6
0
2 21 22 20 2 2 2: 2? 28
Gro%th rate
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Insurance capital and profitability
in non-life insurance suffered lesssurance cap$#al an( solenc"
&ebound happened more uic'ly than e#pected
It %ill need time to restore the capital base
Insurers prof$# fro! e##er $n0es#!en# resul#s
&4+s 29 and 21 impro"e compared to 28 due
to better in"estment results
Capital and sol"ency on-life mar'et performance
99 1 2 0 : ? 8 91
(rimary insurersJ capital &einsurersJ capital
(rimariesJ sol"ency K&$L &einsJ sol"ency K&$L
18
1
12
9
:
0
2
1
1
-
-1
-199 1 2 0 : ? 8 9 1
5nder%ritin) result In"estment result
4peratin) result &4+ after ta#
$ource* $%iss &e economic &esearch Consultin) (rimary insurers* based on 8 lar)e mar'ets
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Capital raisin)becamee#tremely
e
#
p
en
s
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a
t
im
e
%
h
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a
n
i
es
ne
e
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m
o
s
t$elected !ebt Issuance by orth American Insurers 2? - 29
7a#e Issuer A!oun#:!
Coupon )a#e ; &a#ur$#"
8 !ec 29 Hincoln ational 0> :>2 1 Feb 2
9 4ct 29 (rotecti"e Hife 0> 8> 1 4ct 2
1 $ep 29 (rudential :> 0>:2 1? $ept 2
1 $ep 29 (rudential 9> >? 1? $ept 2
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*our ce
<*=F$nanc$al
1= Financial data in CA!
2= 4"er uarterly HI;4&
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&ecent Insurance MA/ I(4 Acti"ity&ecent Asian deals ha"e
been at o"er 1 timesboo' "alue and could be
at a "ery substantial
premium to that
&A
n
.he ran)e is %ide M
hat ma'es the
ifference bet%een hi)hnd lo% multiplesN
alue of an e#tra >1 onhe (/;, (/+, (/+O ratio
s material
$lide 10
I>
.ar)et ame Acuirer ame Oalue $tatus (/+ (/; (/+O Histin) !ate Countr
.on) an) Hife n/a 5$! 2?2m Completed A 2># 1>0# 4ct 8th, 29 orea
China (acific on)
Insurance Co> n/a 5$! 0>1bn Completed /A 2>9#P
2>#P
!ec 20rd, 29 on)
.ar)et ame Acuirer ame Oalue $tatus (/+ (/; (/+O Announced Countr
ABA China &e)ion ABA $A A5! ?>?bn
5nder
ne)otiation 2># 2>?# A o" 29 Asia
IG Hife .ai%an Fubon FC 5$! :m Complete A >?1# >9# 4ct 28 .ai%a
&$A Insurance (HC &iyadh ;an' A Complete ?>18# 1>11# A ul 29Great
;ritain
;. Ae)on A+G4 O 5$! 1m Complete >0# >8# A un 29 &omani
$istemi
$anitari $pa Fondiaria $ai $pa A Complete 11>2# 2>09# A Apr 29 Italy
IG Hife Insurance
orea Co> IG Groep >O> 5$! 29>m Complete 2>9# 1>2# A !ec 28 $>ore
A"i"a Australiaational
Australia ;an' A5! ?0m Complete 1:># A 1>1# un 29 Australi
a"a'iQ Insurance
(ublic Co> Htd>ippon'oa
Insurance Co Htd> A Complete 10>1# 1>?# A Mar 29 .hailan
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.oday3s topics
$tate of the Global Financial Mar'et
Insurance .rends and 4pportunities
Asia
Conclusions
$lide 1
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A snapshot of
Asian mar'ets at
d
i
f
f e
r
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)
e
s
o
f
i
n
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d
e
"e
l
op
m
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ene#ra#
$on20
07
16
126
apan
16
86
:6
$outhorea
.ai%an
on)on)
$in)apore
=2007
*10
n
$
fep
r e!$u!s.
2007
*10n
6 Australi $ .ai%
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Indonesia
India
OietnamIndonesia
(hilippines-26 . $in)apore
-16 -6 6 616 16 26 2606 06 6
A0era%erealpre!$u!
%ro3#h1995-2007
$ $ources* 4#ford +conomics $%iss &e +conomic&esearch Consultin)>
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&is' (erception* Asian insurers ha"e
similar %orries to other insurers
CSFI asked 403
insurance e xecutives
rom around the world
bout their “top f ears”
$ource* C$FI and (%C
$lide 1:
Top Fears of
Insurance Co Execs
All Insurers 2007 All Insurers 2009 &$((le Eas# As$aInsurers 2009
1 .oo muchre)ulation
In"estment
performance+uity mar'ets
2 aturalcatastrophes
+uity mar'ets In"estment
performance
0 Mana)ementuality
Capital a"ailability Capital a"ailability
Climate chan)e Macro-economictrends
Macro-economic
trends
Mana)in) thepricin) cycle
.oo much
re)ulation
Mana)in) costs
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;&IC comparison India has
catch-up
potential in non-
life insurance
on-life
insuranceHife insurance
/71 2009
*7 n
re!$u!s
*7 n
2008
/loal
)an'$n%.
2008
)eal
%ro3#h
2009
)eal
/ro3#h
2010
re!$u!s
*7 n
2008
)
;ra@il180
19>?1
>16 >16 1?>99
&ussia 1002 0?>0 11 -:>96 >6 >:
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.he sub-mar'et of i)h et
7orth also deser"es attention
Asia-(acific i)h et 7orth Indi"iduals by Mar'ets, 2-2?
$lide 18
PP4thers cate)ory is comprised of ei)ht mar'ets* 9a@a'hstan, Malaysia, Myanmar, e% Realand, (a'istan, (hilippines,$ri Han'a and .hailand> $ome historical fi)ures ha"e been restated as the result of additional country-le"el databecomin) a"ailable in 2?> Chart numbers are rounded
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.oday3s topics
$tate of the Global Financial Mar'et
Insurance .rends and 4pportunities
Asia
Conclusions
$lide 19
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Conclus$ons<
Asia3s insurance mar'et outloo'
&ecessions in some Asian economies and slo%in) )ro%th in China and India ha"e dampenedinsurance business )ro%th
.he fall in euity mar'ets has reduced consumer interest in in"estment-lin'ed pr oducts
;ancassurance is particularly affected due to reduced sin)le-premium sales
$ome insurers are shiftin) their focus to protection products
Insurance capital declined in most mar'ets particularly in apan> .o)ether %ith a trend of re)ulator s
loo'in) to stren)then sol"ency super"ision, this %ill put pressure on balance sheets and %ill fa"ourthe use of reinsurance
Go"ernment sponsored infrastructure construction proQects in a number of emer)in) Asian mar'ets
could add to (C insurance demand>
Cap$#al
!ana%e!en# $s a'e" $ssue
(ast e#periences su))est possible stron) rebound alon)side economicreco"ery pressure on capital from business )ro%th
Medium to lon) term )ro%th outloo' remains fa"ourable
$lide 2
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$lide 21