7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians Adapting the European Statistical System to meet the Bubbles Challenge James Whitworth.

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Adapting the European Statistical System to meet the Bubbles Challenge

James WhitworthHead, International Statistical Co-operationEurostatEuropean Commission

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Crises and bubbles Keeping track of housing bubbles Macroeconomic surveillance GDP and beyond Eurostat vision for the production of

statistics

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Crises and bubbles

Global Financial Crisis and Sovereign Debt Crisis 2008-2010 – financial imbalances

Ongoing debates, e.g. UN Statistical Commission High Level Seminar 2009, UN-Eurostat workshops in Ottawa, Scheveningen, Moscow (2009-10)

Don’t shoot the statisticians! BUT we must adapt our systems, making them more

responsive and gear them towards making bubble tracking easier (e.g. rapid estimates, housing prices)

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Tracking Housing Bubbles (1)

Little activity from official statisticians (Main sources: building societies, press)

Not difficult to see why. Many problems:Valuation Coverage of regionsTypes of dwellingTimingLand costsAmenitiesQuality issues

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Tracking Housing Bubbles (2)

First pilot work 2000 – 5 countries OOH component of Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

Further pilot projects in 2006 – 11 countries Co-operation with OECD and IMF Still concerned with Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

Increased urgency in 2010 Now working with 25 EU and EFTA countries, co-operation

with European Central Bank, Statistics Netherlands Publication of handbook and technical manual, December

2010 (on Eurostat web site) – comments welcome

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Tracking Housing Bubbles (3)

Technical Manual on Owner Occupied Housing Draft published by Eurostat in February 2010

Link: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/owner_occupied_housing

Index of Owner Occupied Housing Net Acquisitions Approach (new buildings, extensions, improvements)Excludes landUsed in Consumer Price Index

House Price IndexIndependent indicator in its own rightAll market transactions of newly built and existing dwellingsIncludes land

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Tracking Housing Bubbles (4)

Experimental House Price Index 2005-10

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

BE DE SK EU16 SE UK EU 27

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Macroeconomic Surveillance (1)

Previous work: qualification criteria for Euro entry (inflation Debt/deficit, etc.) => Excessive debt procedures

Economic Governance package – September 2010 Alert Mechanism through a scoreboard Preventative surveillance based on discussions and in-

depth reviews Excessive Imbalance Procedure Enforcement mechanism for Euro area members

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Macroeconomic Surveillance (2)

Eurostat’s new powers Are public finance data flows appropriate to ESA (SNA)? Is the data exhaustive? Is the quarterly data timely and consistent? How do member states control this data? How reliable are the data flows between public entities

and the NSO? Are the registries of entities controlled by general

government complete? Is the Code of Practice being implemented properly?

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

GDP and Beyond (1)Why?

Renewed EU Sustainable Development strategy in 2006

OECD global project on measuring societies(Istanbul declaration in June 2007)

Beyond GDP conference in Nov 2007 (“GDP and Beyond” EC Communication in Aug 2009)

Commission on the measurement of economic performance and social progress (“Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi” report in Sept 2009)

Europe 2020 strategy (first half 2010)

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

GDP and Beyond (2)

Five key actions1. Complementing GDP with environmental and social indicators

A comprehensive environmental index Quality of life and well-being

2. Near real time information for decision-making More timely environmental indicators More timely social indicators

3. More accurate reporting on distribution and inequalities4. Developing a European Sustainable Development Scoreboard5. Extending National Accounts to environmental and social issues

From to

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Eurostat “vision” for production statistics (1)

“Classic” way of collecting data in Europe is based in the 1950s

BUT new developments: New requirements: needs growFaster figures (e.g. bubbles)Need to simplify, reduce regulationICT toolsNeed to reuse data sourcesCross-cutting domains (e.g. GDP & beyond)

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Domain 1 Domain 2 … Domain N

…

…

Data collection

Data processing

Transmission to Eurostat

EU data compilation

…

…

…

…

Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain N

…

Member State 1

…

…

Member State 27

Domain 1 Domain 2 …

Member State 2

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Common infrastructure

Entry

EU data compilation

Primary surveys

Administrative data repositories Other external sources

Processing

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Eurostat Vision (2)

Vision Infrastructure Projects (VIPs) Modernisation of European Enterprise and Trade

Statistics (MEETS) Eurogroups Register Census hub 2011 Common validation tools Data linking Secure and easy access to confidential data

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Eurostat Vision (2) – case study

Typical production company: 200 employees

Before 2 annual surveys, Structural

Business Statistics Energy Monthly intra-EU trade Monthly reports for short

term statistics Monthly production Some duplication

After Administrative data

(registers) Company accounts Monthly survey

7-10 February 2011 15th Conference of Commonwealth Statisticians

Thank you

James Whitworth

Head, International Statistical Co-operation,Eurostat, European [email protected]