5th june (friday),2015 daily exclusive oryza e rice newsletter by riceplus magazine

1 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine |

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June 5,2015




FAO Forecasts Global Milled Rice

Production to Increase in 2015-16

Jun 04, 2015

In its June Cereal Supply and Demand brief, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization

forecasts 2015-16 global milled rice production at around 500.5 million tons, up about 1.3%

from an estimated 494.2 million tons in 2014-15; and slightly up from its last month's forecast of

around 500.1 million tons.

The FAO attributes the increase in global rice production to more buoyant prospects for China

and West African nations. It expects large increases in production in India, China, Philippines,

Sri Lanka and Thailand.

The FAO estimates 2015-16 global rice utilization at around 508.6 million tons, up about 1.8%

from an estimated 499.7 million tons in 2014-15, and slightly up from last month's estimates of

around 508.3 million tons. The FAO anticipates the average per capita rice consumption in 2015-

16 at around 57 kilograms.




The FAO estimates 2015-16 global rice stocks at around 168.8 million tons, down about 4.5%

from an estimated 181 million tons last year and slightly down from last month's forecast of

around 168.2 million tons. The UN agency expects most of the declines in India, Thailand,

Bangladesh, Myanmar and Indonesia.

The FAO estimates 2016 global rice trade at around 42.5 million tons, up about 2.4% from an

estimated 41.5 million tons in 2015 and slightly up from last month's forecast of around 42.4

million tons. The 2016 trade recovery would be fueled by a renewed demand by the traditional

large importers, including Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines but also Cote d’Ivoire

and Nigeria and sustained by continuing large availabilities in exporting countries, says the

FAO. The FAO says its forecasts are subject to uncertainty and would largely depend on the

unfolding of the 2015 rice seasons.

Global Rice Quotes

June 5th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 370-380 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔

India 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 395-405 ↑

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 430-440 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 465-475 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality




Thailand 25% broken 340-350 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 350-360 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 360-370 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 455-465 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 365-375 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 410-420 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 355-365 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 840-850 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 470-480 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 820-830 ↔

Brokens




Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 295-305 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 280-290 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 365-375 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures to Show Strength despite Weak

Export Demand

Jun 04, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 6 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at

$9.925 per cwt (about $219 per ton). The other grains finished the day with gains as well;

Soybeans closed about 1.2% higher at $9.4650 per bushel; wheat finished about 2.6% higher at

$5.2375 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.3% higher at $3.6350 per bushel.U.S.

stocks traded lower on Thursday as the recent bond selloff and lack of resolution on Greece kept

investors on edge in a quiet day of economic releases leading up to Friday's employment report.

In choppy trade, the Dow Jones industrial average traded more than 180 points lower to below its

50-day moving avereage.

The blue chip index briefly swung into positive territory after falling more than 100 points in the

open. The Nasdaq traded about 50 points lower after also attempting slight gains. The S&P 500

fell below its 50-day moving average. U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday despite the bond

selloff. European equity markets closed lower as the yield surge raised fears that higher




borrowing costs could hurt corporate profits and the economic recovery. Asian shares ended the

session mixed, with Shanghai recovering from a 5% plunge to end modestly higher and Japan's

blue-chip Nikkei stock index only just closing in positive territory. Greece will bundle its four

debt payments to the International Monetary Fund due this month into a single payment now due

on June 30, the IMF said on Thursday. U.S. non-farm productivity fell at a 3.1% annual rate in

the first quarter, down sharply from the previously reported 1.9% rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded down 175 points, or 0.97%, at 17,899. The S&P 500

traded down 19 points, or 0.89%, at 2,095, with materials leading all 10 sectors lower. The

Nasdaq traded down 44 points, or 0.87%, at 5,054. Gold is trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil is

seen trading about 2.9% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about flat at about 1:00pm

Chicago time.

Wednesday, there were 707 contracts traded, unchanged from 707 contracts traded on Tuesday.

Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Wednesday decreased by 277 contracts

to 11,955.

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines for

Ninth Consecutive Month

Jun 04, 2015

The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 215 points in May 2015, down about 1.4%

from around 218 points in April 2015 due to a decline in the Higher Quality Indica, Japonica and

Aromatic sub-indices. However, the Lower Quality sub-index increased slightly over last

month.

The FAO index has been declining continuously since September 2014. It declined about 10%

during the 9-month period. The Higher Quality sub-index declined about 2 points or about 1% to

around 186 points, while the Lower Quality Indica sub-index increased by about 1 point, or

about 0.5% to around 190 points in May 2015. Japonica sub-index declined by about 5 points, or

about 1.8% to around 266 points this month from around 271 points last month. The Aromatic

sub-index declined by about 8 points or about 4% to around 185 points in May 2015. The decline

in Aromatic sub-index is mainly due to a decline in basmati rice prices, according to the FAO.




In January - May 2015, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 219 points, down about 6.7%

from around 235 points during the same period last year. Sub-index for higher quality Indica rice

prices declined about 9.1% y/y and sub-index for lower quality Indica rice prices declined about

5.1% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub-index declined about 27.4% y/y. However, sub-index for

Japonica rice prices increased about 4.6% y/y. According to the FAO, rice export prices in the

Asian origins such as Vietnam, India and Thailand declined but increased in Pakistan due to a

tightening of supplies along with a strong demand from East African nations. Export prices in the

U.S., Argentina and Uruguay also declined due to slow export sales.

During May 2015, average rice export prices of all Thai varieties, including Thai 100% broken

rice, Thai parboiled rice, Thai A1 Super, Thai fragrant rice, Thai 5% rice and Thai 25% rice

declined to around $394 per ton, $388 per ton, $326 per ton, $1,057 per ton, $385 per ton and

$372 per ton respectively. Export prices of Vietnam and India 25% broken rice declined to

around $333 per ton and $347 per ton respectively. Export prices of Pakistan 25% broken rice

increased to around $353 per ton. Export prices of the U.S. and Uruguay rice declined to around

$492 per ton and around $550 per ton respectively.




Government of Pakistan May Increase

Import Duty on Rice in FY 2015-16

Jun 04, 2015

Based on the proposition by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR), the

government of Pakistan may increase import duty on basmati rice as well as broken rice to

encourage domestic production and protect local farmers, according to local sources.The

Ministry has proposed to increase the import duty on basmati rice from the existing 10% to

around 30% in FY 2015-16 (July - June) since import of basmati is expected to impact local

production.




It also proposed to increase the import duty on non-basmati broken rice from the existing 10% to

about 30% during the next fiscal year to protect the interests of rice farmers.Since rice is second

largest export product that earns considerable foreign exchange for Pakistanm the government is

keen on increasing production and exports of the commodity by placing import

restrictions.Pakistan has exported around 3.45 million tons of rice (around 428,051 tons of

basmati and around 3.02 million tons of non-basmati) in the first ten months of FY 2014-15 (July

2014 - June 2015) earning about $1,750 million (around $449 million from basmati and around

$1,301 million from non-basmati), according to data from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.The

Ministry also proposed increase in import duty for wheat, wheat flour, crystalline cane and dairy

products.

USDA estimates Pakistan's MY 2014-15 (November - October) milled rice production at around

6.9 million tons (around 10.35 million tons, basis paddy) in MY 2013-14. It estimates Pakistan to

export 3.8 million tons of rice and import 20,000 tons of rice during the year.

Oryza Global Weather Outlook

Jun 04, 2015

Rain is expected across the Yangtze Valley, Central and Eastern area of South China, and

Northern area of North China Plain this week.

Rain is expected across Southern, East and Central India this week, which will maintain

favourable moisture for kharif rice planting.

Rain is expected Central Pakistan, and also expected to continue in Northern Bangladesh this

week.

In Indonesia, rain is expected across much of the region this week, which will slow main season

rice harvesting.

Light rain showers are expected across Northern Thailand, and Central and Northern Vietnam

this week. However, dryness and stress on main season rice will increase elsewhere.

In the Philippines, rain showers are expected across much of the region this week.




A few showers are expected in Eastern and North-western portions of the Northeast Brazil this

week.

Rains is expected across Uruguay and Eastern Argentina this week, which will slow rice

harvesting there.

In the U.S., light rain showers are expected in North-eastern portions of the Delta this week.

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Hold Gains despite Weak

Export Sales Report

Jun 04, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery are currently seen trading 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1

per ton) higher at $9.920 per cwt (about $219 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The

other grains are seen trading higher; soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.6% higher,

wheat is listed about 1.2% higher and corn is currently noted about 0.5% higher.U.S. stocks

traded lower on Thursday as the recent bond selloff kept investors on edge in a quiet day of

economic releases leading up toFriday's employment report.

The Dow Jones industrial average briefly swung into positive territory after falling more than

100 points in the open. The Nasdaq also attempted slight gains. The U.S. Federal Reserve should

delay a rate hike until the first half of 2016 until there are signs of a pickup in wages and

inflation, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual assessment of the economy on

Thursday. Analysts said investors mostly disregarded the news. Before the bell, weekly jobless

claims came in at 276,000, below expectations and last week's 282,000 figure.

The report comes ahead of the May U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday. U.S. non-farm

productivity fell at a 3.1% annual rate in the first quarter, down sharply from the previously

reported 1.9% rate. European equity markets declined as the yield surge raised fears that higher

borrowing costs could hurt corporate profits and the economic recovery. Asian shares ended the

session mixed, with Shanghai recovering from a 5 percent plunge to end modestly higher and

Japan's blue-chip Nikkei stock index only just closing in positive territory. The Dow Jones

Industrial Average traded down 62 points, or 0.35%, at 18,008. The S&P 500 traded down 7




points, or 0.33%, at 2,104, with telecommunications leading all 10 sectors lower. The Nasdaq

traded down 11 points, or 0.21%, at 5,088. Gold is currently trading about 0.8% lower, crude oil

is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.3% lower

at 9:15am Chicago time.

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Prices Hold

Despite Tepid Export Sales

Jun 04, 2015

The U.S. cash market was unchanged today despite tepid export sales numbers as bids and offers

remained unchanged with both sides standing firm.The USDA reported that cumulative net

export sales for the week ending on May 28th

, totaled 34,200 tons, which was 51% lower than

last week and 16% lower than the prior 4-week average.

Increases were reported for the following destinations including: 10,500 tons to Haiti, 5,900 tons

to Canada, 5,000 tons to unknown destinations, 3,500 tons to Guatemala, and 2,600 tons to tons

Saudi Arabia, while decreases of 200 tons were reported for Taiwan.Nets sales of 23,000 tons for

2015/2016 were reported for the following destinations including: 13,000 tons to Colombia, and

10,000 tons to South Korea.U.S. rice exporters shipped 58,500 tons, which was 5% lower than

last week and 18% lower than the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included:

13,800 tons to Libya, 12,000 tons to Japan, 8,800 tons to Taiwan, 8,300 tons to Mexico, and

4,500 tons to El Salvador.

Philippines Will Reach 20.08 Million Tons

Paddy Target in 2015 Despite El Nino Threat,

Says DA Official

Jun 04, 2015




The Philippines is expected to reach the 20.08 million tons paddy (around 12.65 million tons,

basis milled) target by the end of 2015 despite fears of an impending El Nino as the Department

of Agriculture (DA) is planning for necessary interventions, local sources quoted the DA

Assistant Secretary for Field Operations as saying.The DA official told local sources that the DA

has decided to adhere to the set target for this year despite recommendations by the Food

Security Committee (FSC) to revise their 2015 paddy production target to 19.5 million tons

(around 12.28 million tons, basis milled) taking into account the El Nino weather phenomenon,

which is expected to cause below-normal rainfall or prolonged dry spell. The FSC also suggested

that their recommendation is in line with the projected output of 19.02 million tons by the

Philippine Statistics Authority-Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (PSA-BAS).




However, the DA Assistant Secretary noted that the 2015 target of 20.08 million tons has been

set with proper ground work and it is not a guess work. "We may miss this target, but at least we

aimed for it,” he said.Recently, the DA official also requested the government to increase the

budget for the rice sector development next year to around P11 billion (around $246 million)

from next year from the current P6.6 billion (around $148 million).Meanwhile the National Food

Authority (NFA) is preparing for the onset of lean months from July to September. It is

continuing with paddy procurement from farmers and has procured around 1.593 million tons of

paddy as on May 26, over and above its procurement target of around 1.202 million tons. It noted

that the selling prices of NFA rice will not be increased in the near term. Rice stocks with the

NFA are at around 2.78 million tons, sufficient to last for about 90 days, according to a news

release on the government website.

The NFA has called for tenders from Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia for importing 250,000

tons of 25% broken well-milled long-grain rice on June 5. NFA is authorized to import another

250,000 tons of rice if the drought-inducing El Nino weather condition intensifies.

The Philippines already imported 500,000 tons of rice from Vietnam and Thailand this year to

curb price increases and boost buffer stocks. Last year, the South-east Asian nation imported

more than 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of 2014 imports and 300,000 tons

of 2013 residual imports) to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. USDA estimates the

South-East Asian nation to produce around 19.683 million tons of paddy (around 12.4 million

tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (July - June) and import 1.3 million tons of rice in 2015.

Thailand Rice Sellers Lower Most of Their

Quotes Today; Vietnam, India Rice Sellers

Increase Some of Their Quotes

Jun 04, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and Hommali rice

by about a $5 per ton each today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken

rice by about a $5 per ton. India rice sellers increased their quotes for 25% broken rice by about a

$10 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice




Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from

yesterday and about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360

per ton.

India 5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan

5% rice shown at around $390 - $400per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from

yesterday and about a $10 per ton premium on Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $330- $340

per ton, up about a $5 per ton from yesterday.

India 25% rice is indicated at around $360 - $370, up about a $10 per ton from yesterday and

about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton.

India parboiled rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $55 per ton discount to

Pakistan parboiled rice shown at around $410 - $420 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about a $5 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.

India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $280 - $290 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount

to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $295 - $305 per ton.