兩岸洽簽服務貿易協議對我總體經濟及產業之影響評估

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............................................................................163 ........................166 ................................................................172 ....................................................178 ....................................................182 ............................................................................................183 .......................................186 ...........................................212 4. 1 () () () 64 WTO 23 22 WTO WTO 19 80 CEPA 14 46 20 WTO WTO WTO WTO WTO WTO 19 18 18 0 0 65 4 4 1 0 0 15 5. 2 WTO WTO WTO WTO WTO WTO 23 22 19 0 0 80 64 80 () 1. 4 0.11% 1.2 0.16% 2. 4.02 37.2% 0.92 9.08% () () 2 6 21 ECFA RCEPTPP 6. 3 () () () 7. 4 (102) 7 15 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% 3.9 4.28 0.10 0.11% 1.35 1.43 0.17 0.55% 3,500 11,380 11, 923 0.15~0.16% GDP 9,700 1.34 0.025~0.034% () () 8. 5 GTAP Model () Tariff equivalent 2-3 () () () GDP 9,700 9. 6 1.34 0.025~0.034% () 1. 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% 2. 3.78 1.61% 6,100 6,300 0.30% () 1. 3.94.280.10 0.11% 2. 0.55% 3,500 6,400 0.33 0.34% 3. 1.35 1.43 0.17 6,200-6,400 5,200-5,600 10. 7 () 1. 11,380 11, 923 0.15~0.16% 2. 5 2 () 11. 8 () 10 8.7% 35.7% 98 6 30 WTO ECFA () e () 1. (1)2012 2,813 422 (2) 10 (CAGR) 8.7% (3) 6,600 500 70%4,620 (4)2012 8.1 (5)(MIC) 12. 9 (47%)(27%)(12%) 2. (1)2012 2 5,022 2011 35% 368 2011 13% (2) 10 (CAGR) 35.7% (3) 2011 32,518 2010 20% 2010 3.96 2011 5.31 (4)2011 500 () 1. (1) A. WTO ( B.98 6 30 (102) 5 32 ( 25 ) 12 C. WTO 98 13. 10 (2)ECFA 2. (1) A. 1991 WTO (CPC842) (CPC843 8439) B. 99 ECFA CPC842 843( 8439) ( ) (2)ECFA A.(CPC842)( ) B. () a. b. c. 14. 11 () 1. (1) WTO (2) 2. 2010 ECFA 3. 4. (1) (2) (3) ECFA 15. 12 98 6 98 6 (102) 5 32 ( 25 ) 12 () 1. (1) (2) (3) e (4) call out 2. (1) 16. 13 (2) Big data (3)/// (4) (5) 3. (1) (2) 931 () 17. 14 WTO 98 6 30 WTO 5 1,840 5 12.57% () 1. WTO ( ) 1 N./ 77 / 7719-99 101 121.4 18. 15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 67.2 47.5 89.2 136.1 121.4 -29.36% 87.89% 52.60% -10.80% 341 352 359 373 354 2011 9,143 100 2.354 3.9,143 (2011 ) 4.: 102 7 12 () 5 1,840 () 10 7,004.9 () 1. (1) WTO ( )(83104**)( ) (83106-83109) ():98630 ( 19. 16 ) 101 3 30 (2) ( )( ) 2. WTO CPC831,832 83202 500 () () 93 1 () 98 6 30 20. 17 () 1. 207 2008 26 2. 1,267 58 75 3. 8,028 2008 6 () 1. (1) 1997 35 (2) WTO (3) 98 6 30 (4) 2. () () 21. 18 () 2008 1,265 2012 1,468 2008 2012 3.8% 2008 11,212 2012 12,680 3.12% () : 1.2012 / 1,468 () 2.2.8 3.2012 /12,680 4.3.79 (2011 ) 5. 102 7 12 46 1,577.8 () 1. (1)101 3 30 (2) A.:CPC871** 22. 19 B.: 2.WTO () 1. 2. () 1. 93 1 2. 3. 23. 20 (1) (2) (3) (4) WTO WTO : 1.2012 / 29.67 () 2.18.74 3.2012 /108 4.2,043 (2011 ) 1. (1) WTO 24. 21 CPC86401 (2) A.CPC86401 B. 2. (1)WTO (2) A. CPC86401 B. 1. 2. 1. 25. 22 93 1 2. 3. () 40 () 1. (1) 101 309.8 (2) 3 (CACR) 5.83% (3) 101 1839 (4) 101 20,200 26. 23 2. (1)2012 135 (2) 3 (CACR) 19.3% (3) 26,556 (4)2012 34.9 () 1. (1) WTO (2) A.(CPC865) B. 2. WTO (CPC865) () 1. 40 27. 24 2. () 1. (1) (2) 7 15 () () 2. 3. 28. 25 4. (1) (2)()( ) (3) 5. (1) (2)() () (3) ( 29. 26 ) () () 1. (1) 100 317 3,865 (2) 95 100 100 95 118% 75% (3) 100 1,040 30. 27 102 3 1,648 (4)100 14,917 (5) 90 102 5 661 13.4 2. (1)2009-2013 2013 1009.4 (2)2009-2013 10~15% (3) CNAS 2012 5,325 (4) 102 5 98 2 244.7 () 1. (1) i. WTO CPC8676 31. 28 ii. 98 6 30 (2) A.(CPC8676) B. a. b. () 2. (1) WTO (CPC8676) CPC749 (2) A. (CPC8676) CPC749 B. a. b. 32. 29 c. () 1. 3C China Compulsory Certification 2. 3. 3C 4. 33. 30 () 1. 2. CCC 3. 34. 31 4. (1) (2) (3) (4) () 2009 6 30 33 () 1. (1) 20 (2) 5 3-4 (3) 2013 6 30 35. 32 97 103 76 27 (4) 2013 6 30 2,919 2,632 287 (5) 1 2. (1) 2012 136 (2) 30 (3) 2,587 1 36 339 2211 (4) 54,698 (5) (1)-(2) 2012 6 12 300 (3)-(4) 2011 () 1. (1) 98 6 30 (2) 36. 33 A.(CPC8676) B. a. b. () 2. (1) WTO (CPC8676) CPC749 (2) A. (CPC8676) CPC749 B. a. b. c. 37. 34 () 1. 4 2. () 1. 2 2. 3. 2013 () () 38. 35 () : TFDA GLP 5 TAF OLCD GLP 5 TFDA GLP & TAF OECD GLP3 133 () 1. 2. (1) WTO (CPC8676) CPC749 (2) A. (CPC8676) CPC749 B. a. 39. 36 b. c. () 1. TFDA GLP 5 TAF OLCD GLP 5 TFDA GLP & TAF OECD GLP3 2. 3. () 40. 37 (GLP) () WTO () () 1. (1) 98 6 30 ( ) (2) 41. 38 A.( ) (CPC88120**) B. 2. WTO (CPC881882) () () () 42. 39 () 1. 7 56 2. 2013 95 () 1. (1) WTO (2) 98 6 30 2. (1) (2) 3. WTO () 43. 40 () () () 1. (1)65.3 (2)657 (3)46,560 (2011 ) (4) 102 7 12 26 1 9502.9 () 1. 44. 41 (1) WTO 633 8861-8866 101 3 30 (2) 2. WTO CPC63, 6112,6122 CPC63,6112,6122 () 1. 2. (1) (2) () 45. 42 93 1 () 101 3 30 () : 1. 2012 326.9 2. 2010 10.10%2011 7.81%;2012 9.84% 3.4,429 (2012 ) 4. 58,160 (2011 ) (1.~4.100 ) 5. 102 7 12 3 1,510 () 1. 46. 43 (1)101 3 30 (2) 2. (1) WTO (2) () 1. 2. () 47. 44 () / / 101 3 30 () : 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 70.7 60.6 65.4 68.7 69.9 -0.24% ---- -14.39% 7.96% 5.05% 1.77% ---- 3,070 3,036 3,031 3,101 3,141 0.46% 2006 8,087 ---- 100 1. 69.9 2. 2012 1.77% 48. 45 -0.24% 3. 2012 3,141 4. 8,087 5. 102 7 12 28 500 () 1. (1)101 3 30 (2) 2. (1) WTO (2) () 1. 49. 46 2. () 93 1 () WTO 50. 47 () 1.26 (2012 ) 2. 2011 12.75%;2012 14.69% 3.360 (2012 ) 4.10,339 (2006 ) (1.~4.95 ) 5. 102 7 12 40 , 4,093 () 1. (1) WTO (2) 2. WTO () 1. 2. (1) (2) 51. 48 () 93 1 () ( 1,000 150 ) () 1. (1) 2012 722 (24.4 ) 52. 49 (2)-1 (3)2012 7,567 (4)2012 67,980 (5) () 1991 2012 22 (6) () () () () 2012 722 91 7,567 67,980 2011 751 75 7,534 66,246 2010 736 83 6,928 64,034 2. (1) 2012 8,677 (2) 3 13 (3)2011 102,484 (4)2011 360 () 1. (1) FTA (2)ECFA 53. 50 A.(CPC88442**)( ) B. 50 2. (1)(CPC88442**)( ) (2) A. B. C. ( 1,000 150 ) () 1. 2. 54. 51 3. 4. ( 1,000 150 ) () 1. 20 2. 3. (1) 55. 52 () (2) ( ) 4. (1) A. B. (2) 93 1 5. (1) 56. 53 (2) (3) (4) () () 57. 54 1. (1) 2012 45 (2) 4 (CAGR) 5.2% (3) 90 (4)2012 1,360 (5) 2010 2013 6 3 1,021,900 2. (1)2012 3,500 (2) 2 (CAGR) 15% (3)1,306 (4)2012 100 (5) 2010 2013 6 19 12,693,000 () 1. (1) A. WTO ECFA 58. 55 B. ECFA (2) A. B. C. 2. (1)WTO ECFA (2) A. B. C. 59. 56 () 1. 2. 60. 57 () 1. 2013 4 2. 3. 4. 3 61. 58 WTO WTO 1. 70.3 (2012 ) 2. 2010 4.65%; 2011 4.60%; 2012 3.29% 3. 1,560 (2012 ) 4. 15,048 (2011 ) (1.~4.100 ) 5. 102 7 12 2 88 1. (1)101 3 30 (2) A.(CPC87904) 8203 B. 62. 59 2. (1) WTO (2) A.(CPC87904) B. 1. 2. ( WTO ) WTO 93 1 63. 60 WTO WTO 1. 18.9 (2012 ) 2. 2011 -5.26%;2012 -7.52% 3.438 (2012 ) 4.966 (2006 ) (1.~4.95 ) 5. 102 7 12 1. (1)101 3 30 (2) A.(CPC87905) 7602 B. 64. 61 2. (1) WTO (2) A.(CPC87905) B. 1. 2. ( WTO ) WTO 65. 62 93 1 WTO 1. (1) WTO (2) A.(CPC87906**) B. 2. WTO 66. 63 1. 93 1 2. 3. () 2003 35 WTO 1. () 6 2. 18 4 67. 64 14 3. 1 4:1 1. (1) (2)ECFA A. B. 2. WTO 1. 2. 68. 65 () 50% 4 55% () 1. (1) 3 2012 3.56 (2) 1 21 (3)72 2. (1) A. 2012 5.64 4.2 42.1% 2011 3.8% B. 69. 66 10 (2) A. Frost & Sullivan 2010 1 1,680 2017 2 550 2010 3 2017 2 B. 3 2017 () 1. (1)98 6 30 () (2) A. B. C. 70. 67 50% ISO/IEC27001 27011 2. (1) WTO (2) A. WTO (ISP) 1 B.( 50% ) 1 100% ( 55%) () 1. 3 98 3 2. 50% 71. 68 3. (1) (2) 99 10 (3) 21 1 () 1. 2. () 72. 69 1. (1)101 1,211 1,833 143 114 568 ) (2)101 76 10.7 11.9%) 2. (1)2012 800 745 170.73 82.73 48.46% 13,118 2013 1 2012-2013 ) (2) () 1. (1) 10 (2) 15 2. 73. 70 (1) 18 4 (2) () 1. 10 15 2.ECFA 101 29 9,630 100 101 3360.7 74. 71 () 1. 2. 3. () 12 75. 72 WTO () 1. (1) 101 5,907 3 9 5,341 3,700 6,718 7,300 (2) 4,000 (3) 101 1 3,862 37 (4)101 ) 14 8,540 () 52.5% () 44.5% 8,693 (5) 2. (1)2011 1,423 1,034 2012 1,500 76. 73 (2)2000 10% 2001 WTO 2008 2010 20% 25% (3) 2005 2,699 5 8,750 3 4,552.1 (4) 3,893 3.0% 5.28% (5) () 1. (1) WTO (2) A. (CPC512) (CPC513)(CPC514+516) (CPC517) (CPC511+515+518) B. 12 77. 74 2. (1) WTO 4 (2)ECFA A. (CPC511,512,513,514,515, 516,517,518) B. a. b. c. d. 3 () 1. (1) 78. 75 A. B. (2) 2. (1) A. B. (2) 79. 76 () 1. 2. 3. 4. (1) (2) (3) () WTO 4 80. 77 65% () 1. (1)/ 63 GDP 18.81%100 31 (2) 101 10 1,116 -1.6% 101 3 8,131 2.4% (3)2012 639,173 100 12 31 11,286 (4) 2012 1,815,000 () 15,000~20,000 (5) 102 7 12 2,664 74 1,641.8 2. (1) 2010 / 81. 78 111,770 59,464 52,306 / 852.2 2010 27 6,635 (2) 2015 32 2020 (3)2010 8.23 80-90% () 1. (1) A. B.98 6 30 () 4 2 1 ( ) 4710 82. 79 210 (2) A.(CPC622 ) B.(CPC631632611161136121 ) C.(CPC8929) 2. (1) 30 (2) A.(CPC622) (CPC631+632+6111+6113+6121) 30 83. 80 65% B. () 1. (1) WTO (2) 2. (1) 98 (2) 84. 81 WTO ECFA () 1. 2. ICT 3. 4. (1) A. B. (2) A.- MIT () 85. 82 (Logo) B.- (3)() (4) () WTO () 86. 83 1. (1) 2012 2011 5 538.6 (2) 2005 2011 6.25% (3) 4,116 (4) 98 5 1 7,239 2. 1 4,000 2016 5,000 () 1. (1)() (2) A. (CPC9401)(CPC9402) (CPC9404) (CPC9405) (CPC9409**) B. 87. 84 2. (1) WTO (2) A.( )(CPC9401) (CPC9402)(CPC9404) (CPC9405) (CPC9406)(CPC9409) (CPC9403) B. a. b. () 1. 4 2. 88. 85 () 1. (MIT) 2. 3. 4. () () 1. 89. 86 (1)2012 4,500 (2) 2012 68 (3) 2012 57,000 2. 2016 5,000 () 1. (1) WTO ECFA (2)ECFA A.(CPC9311) B. (i) (ii) 2. (1) A. WTO (CPC9312) 90. 87 6 1 B. ECFA i. ii.(ECFA) (100.3.8) ECFA 101 6 26 (2)ECFA A. B. a. b. c. d. 91. 88 () 1. 2. 3. (ECFA) 4. 5. (ECFA) WTO ( ) WTO () 1. 3 2. 92. 89 22 () WTO () 100 37,000 () 1. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A. B. 2. WTO () 1. 3 93. 90 2. () 50% 1. (1) A. 10252636,157 1,033 5 7,168 895 ( 86.64) 3 4,690 ( 60.68) B. 102 3 112 94. 91 5,615 276 2 3,606 6 ( 2.17) 141 ( 0.6) (2) A. 99 12 248 7,893 102 5 263 6,157 106 99 1,053 102 5 1,033 -1.90 B. 99 12 107 6,293 102 3 112 5,615 105 99 276 102 3 272 -1.45 (3) A. 102 5 895 3 4,690 B. 102 3 6 141 (4) A. 101 12 2 1,506 1 4,717 B. 101 12 9,349 81 2. 95. 92 (1) A. 101 2,353 5,845 B. 101 620 4,940 (2) 100 101 8.4 12.8 12.7100 4 868 353 2,000 101 4 4,304 353 2,000 (3)101 4 4 1,669 363 3,434 258 4,040 1. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A. B. 50% 2. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A. (CPC93311) (CPC93323) B. 96. 93 a. b. 1. 2. 1. (1) (2) 97. 94 2. 20 3. (1) 2 (2) (3) () 98. 95 WTO WTO () 1. (1)2012 525.21 (2) 2011 4.8% (3) 110 (4)2012 25,645 2. (1)2011 2,314.82 (2) 2010 9.05% (3) 11,676 (4)2011 154.13 (5) 98 102 6 3 6,491.3 ( 2 ) () 1. (1)98 6 30 (2)ECFA A.() (CPC64110**) 99. 96 B. 2. WTO () 1. 2. 3. 4. () 1. 100. 97 2. () 2008 2012 6.1% 3.0% 2.4% () 1.2012 3,530.5 2.2012 109,816 3.2012 75 () 4. 102 101. 98 7 12 295 3 1,518.9 () 1. (1)98 6 30 101 3 30 (2) A.(CPC642) ( ) B. 2. (1) WTO (2) WTO () 1. 98 16 1.5% 2. ECFA 102. 99 3. () () 4. () 1. 93 1 2. 3. (1) 103. 100 (2) () () (3) () 3 WTO () 1. (1)2011 160.25 104. 101 (2) 2,454 194 ( 2013 5 ) (3)38,276 ( 2013 5 ) 2. (1)2011 2,871.77 (2) 2010 8.41% (3)2011 23,690 (4)2011 299,755 () 1. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A.(CPC7471) B. 3 2. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A.(CPC7471) B. a. 105. 102 b. () 1. 4 2. : know-how 1 30 8 300 4 3. 4. 106. 103 5. () 1. 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) 107. 104 () 1. (1) (2) 5 2 2007 28 4.6 2011 62 9.4 5 2 (3) 1 10 8 2. (1) 2011 2011 2010 2112 () (2) 32 179 ( 153 779 ) () 1. (1) (2) 50% 108. 105 2. (1) 51% (2) () 1. 100% 2. (1) (2) 1 2.4554 109. 106 (3) () 1. 8 2 2 2. 3. () WTO 110. 107 (): 1. (1) 2011 16,278,941 9,650,903 16,897,418 39.53 60.47 (2)2011 1,374 (3)2011 12,132 2006 2011 12,000 (4) 2013 6 2 2,206 2. (1) 142 226 100 (2) GDP 1 GDP 111. 108 (3) 33.9 39.9 (4) () 1. (1) A. WTO (CPC96411) (CPC96412)(CPC96419) (CPC96413) B.ECFA (CPC96411) (CPC96412)(CPC96419) (CPC96413) (2)ECFA A. B. C. 2. (1)WTO (2)ECFA CPC9641196412 CPC96413 () 112. 109 1. GDP 2. WTO 3. 4. () 1. (1) 113. 110 (2) (3) 2 (4) (5) (6) 2. 114. 111 3. 4. 5. () 1 115. 112 3 10 250 () 1. (1)2012 58.1 913 (2) 23 (3)2012 4,407 (4) 2013 6 80 7,349 2. (1)(CAAPA) () 500 100 10 (2) 100 3 7 () 1. (1)100 3 7 116. 113 (2) ( ) 2. 300 (20 ) 5 5,000 5,000 300 (20 ) 5 () 1. 2. 3. 4. : 1 1 3 10 5. : 1 250 () 1. 2. 117. 114 3. 4. 5. () () 1. 2010 126 2. 392 3. 2010 7,497 4. 118. 115 () 1. (1) A. 2005 WTO B. 101 3 7 1 1 1,391 (2)ECFA A. B. 50% 2. (1) WTO (CPC 741)(CPC 742) (2)ECFA () 1. (1) BOT 119. 116 50% (2) 2. () 1. 2. 3. 120. 117 () 2009 15 180.3 () 1. (1)2012 6 3 13 10 (2) 6 2,684 13 (3)2012 2 1 155 34 (4) 2013 6 8 1 4,970.5 2. (1) A. 2011 46 10 37 9 121. 118 27 13 B. 2010 2.68 2011 2.92 2005 2010 14.1 14.52011 2,888 1,764 1,124 120 60 (2) 27 13 (3) 120 60 (4) 2009 15 180.3 () 1. (1) A. WTO B. 2009 8 (2) ECFA 122. 119 A. B. C. 2. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A. B. () 1. 2. () () 2012 5 123. 120 () (1)2012 5 4 1 2012 41.97 (2)5 41.97 (3)2012 1,950 (4) 42%( 14%) () 1. (1) WTO 2 25% 8% (2)ECFA 124. 121 A. B. 10% C. () 2. (1) 42% (2)ECFA () 1. 2. 125. 122 () 1997 35 207 2008 26 () 1. (1) 1,400 1267 58 75 8,028 2011 57 40 (2) 2013 6 2 531 2. (1)2011 83.34 2,086.66 328.62 16,760.25 x (2) 126. 123 () 1.ECFA 2.ECFA (1) (2) 49% () 1. 2. 3. () 1. 2. 127. 124 () 1997 2003 35 1,847 () 1. 1,847 2. 5,505 555 4643 4 2 303 3.9.4 4:1 4. 2013 6 26 10,127 () 1. (1) A. 1997 35 B. 2003 35 (2)ECFA A. 128. 125 B. C. 1997 2003 35 2. (1) (2)ECFA () 1. 2. () () 3 101 3 30 129. 126 2 48 18 0.25%2 () 1.2011 722.3 2. 5 3.8% 3. 19,200 98 9 500 90 4. 2011 40,864 5. 101 3 30 102 5 () 1. (1) WTO 9511101 3 30 (2) A. B. 130. 127 C. BOT OT 2. WTO () 1. 2. 3 2 2 VOLVOVolkswagenSKODA 9 50 39 9 48 19,200 0.25 () 3 131. 128 () 101 3 30 2 2,200 () 1. 88.3 2. 2 3. 2,200 4. 2013 6 36 4076.7 () 1. (1)101 3 30 (2)ECFA A. 132. 129 B. 2. (1) ( 49%) () (2)ECFA () 1. 2. () () 101 3 30 133. 130 () () 1. (1) 101 3 30 (2)ECFA A. ( ) B. 50% C. 2. () () 134. 131 () 100 3 7 () 1. 153 2010 2. 1,733 () 1. (1) 100 3 7 (2)ECFA A. B. C. 2. () () 135. 132 () 2011 3 7 () 1. 26 2.2 3.185 4. 2013 6 6 184.8 () 1. (1) 100 3 7 (2)ECFA 2. () 100 3 7 136. 133 () () 100 3 7 102 5 90 () 1. 409 2.2008 13.1%2009 9.2%2010 11.4% 3. 620 4. 16,829 ( 2010 ) 5. 2013 5 90 2 7,877 () 1. 137. 134 (1)101 3 30 A. B. C. 50 D. 50 E. (2)ECFA 50% 2. WTO () 1. 2. (1) (2) (3) 138. 135 () 1. () 2. ( ) 3. 4. ( ) 5. 139. 136 6. () () 1. (1) 140. 137 A. 2010 602 B.2012 1,300 3 2% 500 4 1,000 8 2 (2) A. 811 B. 1,300 500 4 1,000 8 2 (3) A. 2010 11,331 B. 2012 15,000 10 1 2 (4) 2. (1) 2009 ( ) 20,000 (2)2009 100 10% (3) () 1. (1) A. 2005 141. 138 WTO () B. WTO () 60 100% (2) ECFA A.() B. ECFA 50% C. () WTO ECFA WTO 2. (1) A. WTO 142. 139 B. (2) ECFA A. B. () 1. 2. ( ) 3. ECFA 4. 5. () 143. 140 1. 2. () () 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 80.8 71.8 72.8 76.3 79.3 -0.46% -- -8.80% 4.94% 4.95% 4.95% -- 5,860 5,857 5,901 5,987 5,992 0.56% 144. 141 2006 10,348 2011 10,670 0.77% 100 1.2012 79.32 2.2012 4.95% -0.46% 3.2012 5,992 4.2011 10,670 5. 102 7 12 2 1,485 20 800 () 1. (1)WTO (2) 2. () 1. 2. (1) 145. 142 (2) (3) () 1. 93 1 2. 3. (1) (2) (3) (4) 146. 143 () () 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 293 301 310 327 337 2.54% 3.26% 5.26% 3.26% 26,171 26,510 27,183 28,443 28,795 5.6 (95 ) 6.0 (100 ) 1. 28,795 102 3,000 25,795 2012 337 2008 293 2012 337 2008 2012 3.57% 2008 2012 2.5% 5.3% 147. 144 2. 3. 28,795 4. 59,726 5. (3,000 , 1,600 )(1,100 , 600 ) (65 , 150 ) () 1. (1)WTO (2) 2. () 1. (1) (2) 148. 145 ( ) (3) ( ) (4) (5) 2. 149. 146 (1) (2) (3) () 1 2 3 150. 147 4 () 5 6 93 1 () 151. 148 () 1. (1) 15 (2) 2011 2006 (3) 107 3,000 (4) 2011 10,543 2. (1) 1994 9 5,455.9 (2) 2011 11 5,000 4,000 3. 152. 149 (1) 800 (2) 2 (3) 2010 7 (4) (5) () 1. (1) (2)ECFA 2. (1)WTO (2)ECFA 153. 150 () 1. (1) (2) 2. (1) (2) () 1. 2. 45 154. 151 101 7 1 20 2 102 103 3. 101 8 9 4. 5 6 155. 152 5. 6. () 98 6 30 3 1.39 2 ECFA 156. 153 () 1. (1) 2012 436 (2) 4.8% (3)2012 300 (4)2012 3 2. (1)2012 2,141 (2) 31.9% (3)2011 5,000 (4)2011 15 (5) 3,000 1 9 12 3 () 1. (1) ( 62 )( 157. 154 ) (2)ECFA A. - B. 2. (1) (2)ECFA A. (CPC9619**) B. () 2 () 1. (1) (2) 2 (3) 2004 2012 27 ( 2 3 158. 155 81keys ) ECFA 2. (1) A. B. IP (2) A. B. IP (3) ECFA 986 98 6 (102) 5 3 ( 2 ) 1.39 () 1. (1) 159. 156 (2) SOP (3) IP 2. (1) (2) 93 1 () 160. 157 () 1. (1) 2012 2013 6 109,513 88,724 81.01% (2) 20 2. (1) 2013 3 11,745,6807,928,5922012 16,792 (2) 2009 90%2012 164 152 161. 158 92% 2003 20 (3) 2013 3 9000 8000 17000 (4)2012 5 (5) () 1. 2. // () () 1. 162. 159 2. 3. 4. () 1. 102 7 11 () 9:30 18 70 2. 102 7 12 __ 3. () 163. 160 1 2 () 1. (1) 1,758 1,373 78% 338 ( 85 ) 19% 47 3%( 2012 11 7 ) (2) 6,086 2,969 301 441 2,227 ( 2012 11 7 ) (3) 2011 43 (28 15 ) 1,012 4.2% 77.9% 14% 164. 161 8.1% 89.5% 6.6% 4.1 260.3 1.6% 51.3% 39.6% 5.7%( 2012 11 ) 2. 2011 440 10 4.15 2012 9 30 7,239 850 8,089 98,674 96,842 195,516 () 1. 2. (1) () (2) (3) 1 165. 162 2 () 1. 2. 1 2 3. () 1. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 2. 166. 163 () () 1. (1)2012 2 5988 (2)2012 12.44% (3)57 ( 23 31 3 2012 14 9930 (4)2012 335,027 (5) 2002 2013 7 11 6 2013 7 11 164.74 2. 167. 164 (1)2012 1 5488 (2)20128.01% (3)162 ( 62 68 8 10 14 )2012 7 3,546 (4) () 1. (1) ECFA (2)ECFA (3) 2.ECFA () 1. (1) 2010 168. 165 (2) 5% 10% 10% 15% 2. (1) (2) 2012 3 30 2012 5 1 (3) 169. 166 2012 11 1 2013 1 8 () 1. 2. ( 2012 11 1 2013 1 8 ) () 170. 167 () 1. (1)2012 1 4,562 (2) 3 (CACR) 6.27% (3)2012 38 (4)2012 136,957 (5) 2013 5 10 418 2. (1)2012 3 1,670 2011 18.65% (2) 2 (CACR) 25.38% (3)2012 498 (4)2012 2,460,861 (5) 2013 5 2 26.75 (6 14 171. 168 ) () 1. (1) A. 2010 6 ECFA 1 1 B. 3 1 (2)ECFA OECD 2. (1) A. ECFA 1 2 1 B. 13 23 10 (2)ECFA () 172. 169 1. (1)OECD OECD (2) 50 2013 5 2 () 0.39% (3) 173. 170 (4) VISAMASTER 2. (1) QDII (2) WTO (3) 174. 171 (4) () 1. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 175. 172 2. (1) 50 2013 5 2 0.39% 4 (2) 3. () 176. 173 () 1. (1)2012 3,241 222.76 2013 5 2.98 448 (2) A. 4 (CAGR) 1.75% B. 2013 4 2.032013 5 2.04 1.89 1.86 7.4% 9.68% C. 4 (CAGR) -13.55% (3) 120 38 50 (4) 2012 4 3 8 2 7 (5) 2013 5 5 177. 174 2 2 11 24 2. (1) 2012 1294.71 2011 4.77% 2.86 (2) A. 4 (CAGR) 0.86% B. 2012 2.86 2011 2.19 30.6% C. 3 45.24% -32.72% 37.60% (3) 114 80 88 160 (4) (5) () 1. (1) ECFA 2 5 10 178. 175 (2) 2. (1) A. ECFA (QFII) B. 13 23 10 10 8 QFII 21.7 (2) ECFA 50% 51% 49% 50% QFII 179. 176 RQFII () 1. (1) (2)QDII 5 10 QDII (3) (4) QDII 2 180. 177 2. (1) RQFII (2)(2013) 1 29 RQFII RQFII () 1. (1) ( QDII) 181. 178 QDII (2) 2. 3. () 182. 179 () 1. 2011 519 2.3 24 2,900 200 200 1 1 57.27% 40.95% 98.22% 2. 2010 2 2010-2015 183. 180 () 1. (1) (2)ECFA 2. (1) WTO (2)ECFA A. B. C. 184. 181 6 D. E. F. () 1. 2. 37 3. () 1. 185. 182 2. 37 3. () () 1. (1) WTO (2) ECFA 2. ECFA 50% 186. 183 () () ICP 55% ()() 1.( B2C C2C ) 6,605 B2C 3,825 C2C 2,780 2. 17% 3. 4 5,000 4.,750 () 11 5.JKOS Payeasy 200 () 1. 187. 184 (1) (2) 50% 2. (1) ( 50%) ( 49%) (2) ( ) 55% () 1. 2. ICP 55% WTO CEPA () 1. 188. 185 (1) ICP (2) (3) (4) (5) 2. (1) (2) (3) (4) 931 189. 186 2013 7 1 GTAP Model 2 3 () GTAP GTAP Gravity ModelTariff equivalent 4 1 1 GTAP Thomas W Hertel, eds., Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997). 2 8.1 3 1. ECFA 2. CEPA , 3. 4 Park (2002)Francois (2007) 190. 187 1. WTO CEPA CEPA CEPA 65 52 CEPA 13 CEPA 14 CEPA1 CEPA 191. 188 2. 55 37 18 9 1 8 1 1 32.41% 23.86% 36.04% 32.56% 38.54% 7.71% 45.13% 40.19% 20.20% 4.04% 22.00% 19.58% 192. 189 22.79% 19.29% 24.37% 22.24% 18.82% 11.03% 26.30% 22.55% 9.47% 3.20% 12.34% 9.51% 11.12% 7.02% 14.60% 14.11% 24.79% 24.21% 30.45% 29.74% 9.47% 4.39% 12.55% 9.57% 13.62% 3.92% 17.93% 13.26% 12.46% 9.14% 16.25% 13.22% GTAP 8.1 () 1984-2012 1.5 193. 190 0.02% () () () 194. 191 GDP 9,700 1.34 0.025~0.034% 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% 3.78 1.61% 6,100 6,300 0.30% 2 % * %* GDP 394,587 97~134 0.025~0.034 3,509,068 123 0.004 1,080 401.81~401.88 37.19~37.20 1,011 91.70~91.78 9.07~9.08 23,539 377~378 1.60~1.61 116,844 93 0.08 20,851 61~63 0.29~0.30 100,528 218 0.22 195. 192 *() 3.9 4.28 0.10 0.11% 0.55% 3,500 6,400 0.33 0.34% 1.35 1.43 0.17 6,200-6,400 5,200-5,600 3 % 1 * %* 6,355.77 34.7 ~35.14 0.55 ~0.55 18,741.95 62.19 ~63.62 0.33 ~0.34 3,291.19 6.22 ~6.34 0.19 ~0.19 84,719.55 134.98 ~143.16 0.16 ~0.17 196. 193 35,707.14 52.18 ~56.09 0.15 ~0.16 11,228.22 12.99 ~14.06 0.12 ~0.13 24,232.85 22.63 ~24.55 0.09 ~0.10 37,154.19 23.11 ~30.96 0.06 ~0.08 34,609.75 15.32 ~20.34 0.04 ~0.06 36,809.95 12.26 ~15.88 0.03 ~0.04 11,586.73 2.03 ~2.98 0.02 ~0.03 71,320.98 12.27 ~15.34 0.02 ~0.02 / 375,758.27 390.87 ~428.49 0.10 ~0.11 1 *() 11,380 11923 0.15~0.16% 5 2 4 % 197. 194 * ** %** 2,467,274 5,138 ~5,282 0.21 ~0.21 2,497,388 2,160 ~2,350 0.09 ~0.09 276,875 1,111 ~1,132 0.4 ~0.41 509,182 989 ~1,018 0.19 ~0.20 608,278 904 ~944 0.15 ~0.16 420,412 494 ~590 0.12 ~0.14 283,214 209 ~222 0.07 ~0.08 97,611 153 ~155 0.16 ~0.16 228,401 140 ~150 0.06 ~0.07 11,441 70 ~70 0.61 ~0.61 5,587 12 ~12 0.22 ~0.21 7,405,663 11,380 ~11,923 0.15 ~0.16 * **() 2006 GTAP GTAP 2013 5 198. 195 729.9 740.5 3. GDP 9,700 1.34 0.025~0.034% 4. (1) 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% (2) 3.78 1.61% 6,100 6,300 0.30% 5. (3) 3.9 4.28 0.10 0.11% (4) 199. 196 0.55% 3,500 6,400 0.33 0.34% (5) 1.35 1.43 0.17 6,200-6,400 5,200-5,600 6. (6) 11,380 11,923 0.15~0.16% (7) 5 2 7. 200. 197 Gravity Model 1. 1 2 3ln( ) ln( ) ln( )ijk j k i i ik iM a a a GDP a PCI a dis (1) i k j i GDP i GDP i k 2. (1) (predicted value) . (2) (2) ap (actual value) (predicted value) ijkbjk i (benchmark) k j (2) (Elasticity of Substitution) 201. 198 ECFA 1. uWFDIDWFDIDWFDIWFDIGDPFDIFDI ttttititit 661114312110 ... itFDI i t 1itGDP i t-1 tWFDI 1-tWFDI t t-1 61... 6 WFDI u 2. 2009-2012 1tWFDI tWFDI 202. 199 GTAP GTAP ISIC v3 ISIC v3 GTAP GTAP 38 380 3801 3802 3803 3804 39 390 3901 3902 40 400 4001 4002 4003 41 410 4100 42 420 4200 9204 44- 45 455 4551 4552 4553 4554 46- 48 472 4721 4729 203. 200 GTAP 474 4741 4742 4743 4744 479 4791 95 951 9511 9512 9592 44- 45 441 4411 4412 4413 4414 4415 4416 4419 442 4421 4422 4423 4424 4425 4429 443 4431 4432 4433 4434 4435 4439 444 204. 201 GTAP 4441 4442 4443 4444 4445 4449 445 4451 4452 4453 446 4461 4462 4463 4464 447 4470 448 4480 451 4511 4512 4513 4514 4515 4516 4519 452 4521 4522 453 4531 4539 454 4541 4542 4543 4544 205. 202 GTAP 4545 4554 456 4560 457 4570 459 4591 4592 4599 462 4620 475 4751 4752 4753 4754 4759 461 4611 4612 4614 4615 4619 461 4613 4619 463 4631 4632 4633 4634 4635 4639 464 4641 4642 4643 4644 206. 203 GTAP 4645 4649 465 4651 4652 4653 466 4661 4662 4663 4664 467 4670 468 4680 471 4711 4719 472 4729 473 4731 4732 4739 479 4799 479 4791 629 6292 481 4811 4812 4819 95 959 9591 9599 207. 204 GTAP 9693 50 501 5011 5012 509 5090 51 511 5110 512 5120 519 5191 5199 53 531 5310 532 5320 533 5331 5332 5333 534 5340 539 5390 56 560 5600 57 571 5710 572 5720 573 5730 574 5741 5742 5743 575 5750 576 208. 205 GTAP 5761 5769 577 5770 579 5790 58 580 5801 5802 964 9640 54 541 5410 542 5420 55 551 5510 552 5520 59 591 5910 592 5920 60 600 6000 62 621 6211 6212 6213 622 6220 623 6230 624 6240 625 6250 629 6291 6293 209. 206 GTAP 6294 6295 6296 6299 62 629 6299 63 631 6311 6312 6313 6314 6319 632 6321 6329 645 6450 7401 64 641 6410 642 6420 643 6430 644 6440 649 6490 66 661 6611 6612 669 6691 6699 672 6721 6722 6723 210. 207 GTAP 6729 671 6711 6712 6713 6714 6719 673 6731 6732 6739 72 720 7201 7202 7209 73 731 7310 732 7321 8492 75 751 7510 752 7520 753 7530 69 691 6911 6912 6919 692 6920 70 700 7000 71 710 7101 7102 7109 211. 208 GTAP 74 740 7401 7402 7403 7409 76 760 7601 7602 7609 77 770 7701 7702 7703 7704 7705 7709 875 8750 92 920 9201 9202 9203 9204 9205 9206 9209 9691 73 732 7322 84 8491 85 851 8510 852 8520 212. 209 GTAP 853 8530 854 8540 86 861 8610 862 8620 863 8630 87 871 8710 872 8720 873 8730 874 8741 8742 8749 88 880 8800 89 890 8900 90 900 9001 9002 9003 9004 9009 96 961 9610 962 9620 963 9630 969 9692 9699 96 965 9650 98 981 9811 9812 213. 210 GTAP 982 9820 79 791 7910 792 7920 793 7930 794 7940 795 7950 796 7960 799 7990 77 770 81 811 8110 812 8120 819 8191 8192 8193 8199 82 820 8201 8202 8203 8204 8209 93 930 9301 9302 9303 () 9309 94 941 9410 942 9421 9422 214. 211 GTAP 9423 9424 949 9491 9499 99 990 9901 9902 9909 215. 212 () 80 1. 2. 3. () 1. WTO 2. 3.( ) 4. 216. 213 5. () 1. 2. 3. 93 95 102 6 80 217. 214 1. www.taiwanservices.com.tw 2. 3. 7 () B2B () 1. 218. 215 2. 3. () 1. 2. () 1. 2. 3.