4.3.3 Time Series UPA Package 4, Module 3 TIME SERIES
4.3.3 Time Series
UPA Package 4, Module 3
TIME SERIES
4.3.3 Time Series
Time Series
• Monitoring and Temporal Analysis• Index numbers• Feedback in the planning cycle• Growth Rates• Introduction exercise 4.3.3
4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring: Slum Trend 1990 - 2001
4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring: Proposed versus Real Land Use
Differences between master plan (1988) and reality (2000)
Wuhan, China
4.3.3 Time Series
Monitoring and Temporal Analysis
• Monitoring to analyze and understand changes over time
Spatial-temporal analysis
• Performance measuring
Feedback and adaptation of programs and policies
4.3.3 Time Series
Urban Growth, Villavicencio
Spatial – Temporal Urban Development
1970
1987 1994
4.3.3 Time Series4.3.3 Time Series
6
4.3.3 Time Series
Urban Growth, Wuhan
4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1968)
4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1978)
4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (1987)
Small Format Aerial Photograph
Courtesy Paul Hofstee, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation
4.3.3 Time Series
Nairobi, Kibera (2002)
4.3.3 Time Series
Trujillo, Peru (1969)
Informal development
Aerial Photograph
4.3.3 Time Series
Trujillo, Peru (1997)
Informal development
Spatial-TemporalDevelopment
4.3.3 Time Series
Index Numbers
Index: composite measure of two or more indicators
e.g. consumer price index, human development index
Index number = (value / base value ) * 100
http://www.bls.gov/cpi
• define purpose of index• select data source• select base for comparison• select methods of aggregation and weighting
4.3.3 Time Series
Index Numbers
Comparing indexes, index number/proportion/percentage
Ii = (Mi / M0) * 100
Ii = Index number in year i
Mi = measurement in year i
M0 = measurement in base year
Price of cup of coffee in 2002 € 2.00
Price of cup of coffee in 2004 € 2,25
Price relative is (2.25/2.00) * 100 = 113
4.3.3 Time Series
Feedback in the Planning Cycle
• Assess current situation• Formulate policies and programs, prioritize objectives and
targets• Monitor implementation• Provide feedback to make mid-course changes• Communicate results
4.3.3 Time Series
Growth Rates
Annual population growth rate
Pt = P0 * (1+r)t
P0 = Population at the beginning of the period
Pt = Population at the end of the period
r = average annual growth rate
t = number of years in the period
4.3.3 Time Series
4.3.3 Time Series
Population Growth Rates
4.3.3 Time Series
Introduction Exercise 4.3.3
• (In) compatibility of data sets for different years
Changes in boundaries (splitting and merging of municipalities), code and name changes, new variables addes, old variables deleted, errors
• Calculate population and income changes in Dutch Municipalities between 1995 and 1999