3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing Forecast San Jose, California • 8 July 2003 Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Mary Olsson Jim Hines Jim Walker Emerging Technologies and Semiconductors Gartner Dataquest Semiconductor Manufacturing Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Outlook: Fundamentals Market Outlook: Fundamentals Point to Growth Point to Growth
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3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing Forecast San Jose, California 8 July 2003 Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Mary Olsson Jim Hines Jim Walker.
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3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing ForecastSan Jose, California • 8 July 2003
Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen
Mary Olsson
Jim Hines
Jim WalkerEmerging Technologies and Semiconductors
Gartner Dataquest
Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Outlook: Fundamentals Point to GrowthOutlook: Fundamentals Point to Growth
Wafer Fab: EquipmentWhat Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003?
Note: Some segments include OEM sales
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
ECD
Steppers
2003 Growth
2003 Revenue (Millions of Dollars)
Market Growth
TrackDry Etch
CMP Nontube CVD
PVD
RTP
ImplantProcess Control
Wet Clean
Factory Automation
193-nm Steppers
0%
20%
40%
50%
30%
10%
17
Packaging and Assembly: Overall Industry Utilization
Factory Utilization
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
Leading Edge
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Packaging and Assembly: SAT Services Quarterly Utilization
Factory Utilization
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
Leading Edge
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Packaging and Assembly: SATS Market Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
2002
+18%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost Likely
Pessimistic
2003
+29% (0.30)+22% (0.55)+16% (0.15)
Billions of Dollars
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Conclusions
2003: Packaging production exceeds 2000; strong QFN
2004: Flip chip and SIP become strong drivers
2005: WLP moves into mainstream
Packaging and Assembly: SAT ServicesAnnual Revenue Forecast
Revenue (Billions of Dollars)
0
10
20
30
2000 2004
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Packaging and Assembly: Equipment Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic PessimisticMost Likely
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04
2002
-22%
Scenarios
OptimisticMost Likely
Pessimistic
2003
+35% (0.25)+26% (0.55)+17% (0.20)
Billions of Dollars
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Packaging and Assembly: Equipment What Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003?
Molding/Encapsulation
AP Lithography
2003 Growth
2003 Revenue (Millions of Dollars)
Die Bonders
Market Growth
Package Singulation
Flip-Chip Bonders
Dicing Saws
Contact Prober
Vision Inspection
Solder Ball Attach
Test Handlers
Wire Bonders
15%
25%
35%
0 150 300 450 600
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Long-Term View: Cycles ContinueCapital Spending and Equipment Forecasts
Billions of Dollars
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Capital Spending
Billions of Dollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Semiconductor Equipment (Excluding Test)
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Conclusions Economy
Expect improvement in 2003, albeit back-end-loaded Weakness in Europe and Japan sharpens need for U.S. improvements
Electronic equipment Expect gradually improving macro conditions to spur phased recovery Start of Y2K PC replacement cycle expected; strength is questionable Corporate spending returns in 2003; strength depends on economy
Semiconductors Expect revenue growth of 8 percent in 2003 Expect tightening capacity utilization and better demand to drive 2004
Supply-side and capital equipment Healthy inventories and rising demand lead to improving fab utilization Supply-side fundamentals encourage more optimistic outlook on CAPEX with 7.9
percent growth in 2003 Holding to WFE growth of 8.7 percent Upgrade packaging equipment segment to 26 percent growth for 2003 Next fab build cycle slips into 2004; next downcycle in late 2005/early 2006
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Gartner Dataquest Events at Upcoming SEMICON/West 2003
SEMICON/West 2003 Forum
– Semiconductors: Fishing in Tide Pools or Open Seas
– 16 July 2003 San Francisco, CA
– For more information or to register, please visit www4.gartner.com/2_events/local_briefings/asset_8216.jsp
Breakfast Briefing
– The Back End Leads the Recovery
– 18 July 2003 San Jose, CA
– For more information, please visit the Featured Events section on the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Page: www4.gartner.com/pages/section.php.id.2014.s.8.jsp
– For registration, please contact Becky Tonnesen at [email protected]