31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD Tel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 09 www.cruanalysis.c LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON The near term outlook for world steel markets Prepared for: ASSOCHAM 4 th India Steel Summit Delhi, August 2010 Prepared by: Paul Scott Group Manager, CRU Steel Group
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31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UKTel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 0976
www.cruanalysis.com
LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON
The near term outlook for world steel markets
Prepared for:
ASSOCHAM 4th India Steel SummitDelhi, August 2010
Prepared by:
Paul ScottGroup Manager, CRU Steel Group
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Presentation plan
• Latest developments
• CRU’s forecast
• Focus on India and the key challenges faced by its steel industry
• Key issues facing the world steel industry
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Latest developments
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Prices for finished steel, both flat and long products, have generally been following a downward trend during the past two-to-three months
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
CRUspiCRUspi flatsCRUspi longs
CRU steel price index (CRUspi), index, April 1994 = 100
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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And when we take a look at the regional CRUspi indices it’s clear that none of the major steel consuming regions have escaped the weakness
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
CRUspi North AmericaCRUspi EuropeCRUspi Asia
CRU steel price index (CRUspi), index, April 1994 = 100
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Concentrating on demand, world finished steel consumption has weakened of late and for the third quarter as a whole we’re expecting it to fall for the first time in almost two years
Quarter-on-quarter changes in apparent consumption of finished steel products, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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If we look at the reasons behind the slowdown in demand, seasonal factors have played a role in North America, Europe and parts of Asia (especially for flat products)
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
North America Western Europe Eastern Europe China Other E&SE Asia
Typical quarter-on-quarter changes in apparent consumption of finished steel products, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
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In addition, the rebound that had been experienced by some developed economies has proved unsustainable as the positive impact of the inventory cycle has now passed
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2e Q3f
Stock/GDP ratio in the USA
Stock-to-GDP ratio in the US economy, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
An end to destocking has meant that demand has needed
to be satisfied by new production, but further growth
requires an improvement in “real” demand or restocking
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Meanwhile, in some developing economies the slowdown in the rate of growth in economic activity has been driven mostly by government policy
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2e Q3f
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%India - industrial production (y1) China - investment funded by loans (y2)
Year-on-year changes, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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Steel mills responded to the growth in finished steel demand during 2009 and H1 2010 by raising output and, while this has since been cut, supply is currently exceeding demand
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
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110World (y1) OECD countries (y2) Non-OECD countries (y2)
Crude steel production, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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The recent decline in world crude steel production has clearly had a negative impact on the demand for some key steelmaking raw materials
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J
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65Iron ore (y1) Hard coking coal (y2) Scrap (y2)
World apparent consumption of key steelmaking raw materials, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis. Note: consumption calculated by using 2009 consumption rates.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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And it’s this contraction in demand that has contributed to recent falls in the prices for iron ore, coking coal and scrap, which in some cases have exceeded 30%
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Iron ore (63.5% Fe), cif China
Hard coking coal, fob Australia
Scrap (#1HMS), fob US East Coast
Spot prices of key steelmaking raw materials, US$/tonne
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
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CRU’s forecast
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On the face of it, this year looks as if it will be a strong one for finished products demand, as both flat and long products consumption is expected to grow by well over 10%
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
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20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f
Total finished products Total long products Total flat products
Year-on-year changes in world apparent consumption, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
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These impressive rates of growth (albeit from a relatively low base) will give rise to new record levels of consumption, for both flat and long products
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1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f
300
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600
700
800
900Total finished products (y1)Total long products (y2)
Total flat products (y2)
World apparent consumption, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
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And it will be non-OECD countries that continue to dominate; their share of world finished steel consumption, which hit 75% in 2009, is expected to remain at around this level
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f
Total finished productsOECD countries
Non-OECD countries
World apparent consumption of finished steel products, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
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Figures for 2010 as a whole, however, disguise the weakness that we’re anticipating in the second half, when world finished steel consumption is actually expected to fall
262.848
32.062
27.01012.767 1.550
26.919
19.068
352.484
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Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e Q1e Q2e Q3f Q4f
World apparent consumption of finished steel products, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010
Forecast
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By varying degrees, seasonal factors; austerity measures; the end to stimulus packages; and, poor sentiment will contribute to this continued malaise in world steel demand
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
And even in 2011 we’re not expecting to see a particularly robust set of macroeconomic conditions, with industrial production growth set to slow in most major economies
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-20%
-15%
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0%
5%
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f
USAGermanyIndiaChinaJapan
Year-on-year changes in industrial production, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
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This slowdown in the rate of growth in industrial activity from 2010 to 2011 will likely translate into a slowdown in the rate of growth in finished steel consumption
-10%
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0%
5%
10%
15%
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f 2011f
Total finished products Total long products Total flat products
Year-on-year changes in world apparent consumption, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
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But, let’s not forget that any growth from 2010’s levels will result in new record levels of finished steel consumption (which again will be dominated by non-OCED countries)
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e 2009e 2010f 2011f
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800
900Total finished products (y1)Total long products (y2)
Total flat products (y2)
World apparent consumption, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
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And, it’s worth pointing out that from the fourth quarter of this year we’re expecting world finished steel consumption to grow quarter-after-quarter through until the end of 2011
393.915
0.157
15.291
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8.395
19.068
26.919
1.55012.76727.010
32.062
262.848
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Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e Q1e Q2e Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
Apparent consumption of finished steel products, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010 2011
Forecast
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So, we see a steady improvement in the demand-side picture for finished products and, given record levels of consumption, we also see support from raw materials prices
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
Iron ore (63.5% Fe), cif China
Hard coking coal, fob Australia
Scrap (#1HMS), fob US East Coast
Spot prices of key steelmaking raw materials, US$/tonne
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010 2011
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The upshot for finished steel prices is that we believe that we’re pretty much at the low point now and that we should see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
CRUspiCRUspi flatsCRUspi longs
CRU steel price index (CRUspi), index, April 1994 = 100
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010 2011
Low point about now!
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And while the regional CRUspi indices are likely to show a generally similar trend, note the relative weakness expected in Europe and North America (versus Asia) during H2 2010
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J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
CRUspi North AmericaCRUspi EuropeCRUspi Asia
CRU steel price index (CRUspi), index, April 1994 = 100
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010 2011
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Focus on India and the key challenges faced by its steel industry
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Supported by a firm outlook for end-use sectors, finished steel consumption in India is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% between 2009 and 2014, reaching almost 100m tonnes
This growth may well be impressive, but we do have some concerns as to the local steel industry’s ability to satisfy this demand: key challenges faced by the Indian steel industry
1. Delays in acquiring clearance for projects
– While we appreciate that the consent of all stakeholders is imperative, we fear that it is hindering the development of the steel industry: there is a need for simpler processes.
2. Raw materials availability
– For iron ore, acquiring project clearance is a concern. For coking coal, however, the issue is that India does not have large reserves of coking quality coal.
3. Infrastructure bottlenecks
– Bottlenecks exist in power, water, roads and port handling capacity, despite substantial efforts by the government.
4. Labour productivity
– Although there are exceptions, labour productivity in the Indian steel sector is low.
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Key issues facing the world steel industry
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Issue 1: The new quarterly pricing mechanism for iron ore looks unsustainable unless steel mills hedge their margin risk; introduce an iron ore surcharge; or reduce the lag
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-30%
-15%
0%
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60%
75%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f
Iron ore (63.5% Fe), cif China (lagged by one quarter) CRUspi (Global)
Quarter-on-quarter changes, %
Data: CRU Analysis.
2007 2008 2009 2010
This represents a variation in
margin
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Issue 2: We believe that iron ore exports from India have now peaked, but there is a risk that they will fall more sharply, which has upward implications for iron ore prices
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f
Iron ore exports from India
Indian exports of iron ore, m tonnes
Data: GTIS, CRU Analysis.
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Issue 3: Chinese net exports of finished steel are expected to increase by 65% between the third quarter of this year and the end of 2011
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
Total flat products
Total long products
Chinese net exports of finished steel products, m tonnes
Data: CRU Analysis.
2009 2010 2011
Forecast
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Thank you for your attention!
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