31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK Tel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 0976 www.cruanalysis.com LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON Petcoke and its role within the aluminium industry McCloskey 6 th Petcoke Conference May 2008 Calvin Graham Consultant CRU Analysis E-mail [email protected]Tel: (+44) 20 7903 2280
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31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK Tel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 0976 LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON Petcoke.
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31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK
Tel +44 20 7903 2000 Fax +44 20 7837 0976www.cruanalysis.com
LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON
Petcoke and its role within the aluminium industry
CRU is the world’s leading independent provider of consultancy, business analysis and conferences focusing on the mining, metals, power, cables, fertilizers and industrial chemicals sectors.
o Founded in the late 1960s
o Privately owned to ensure its independence
o Located in London, Beijing, Santiago, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro and key centres in the United States
o Employs more than 200 experts
Fundamental Analysis Strategic Consultancy Conferences & Events
Slide 3
o A team of 20 analysts, metallurgists, chemists and economists
o A multi-cultural team in the UK and abroad
o Undertake research, analysis, client and site visits, innovation
o Strength in depth to allow in-depth knowledge in areas such as power, carbon products and semi’s markets
o A recognition and emphasis on China, hence our office in Beijing
o 2008 aluminium conference in Chongqing, China Sep 21-24.
The Aluminium Business Unit
Slide 4
Structure of Presentation
• Aluminium market outlook
• Petcoke consumption by the aluminium industry
• Anode-grade petcoke production forecast
• Quality and pricing implications for smelters
• Conclusions
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LME3M 100 day MA
Data: LME; daily offical 3M price to 10th March
Aluminium price performance
LME 3Maluminium price (May 06 – Jun 08)
Forecast: rising operating costs lead to continued strong aluminium prices
Highlights:
-Reduction in expected market surplus and escalating costs from a weaker US dollar and higher oil prices lead to 2008 price rise
-Market balance in 2008 cut to 660,000 tonnes on output disruptions
-Strengthening yuan and higher Chinese power prices lead to 2009 price increase, surplus in H1 2009 all in China
-Continued high prices forecast 2010-2012 on higher costs expectation and tighter S/D balance
Risks: Global recession leads to fall in demand and lower LME prices Yuan appreciates more than our base case, leads to higher prices
coke demand, 2007-2012 ('000 tonnes)
Sector 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Aluminium 18825 20598 22150 23623 25307 26847
(of which China) 6214 7255 8439 9410 10125 11012
EAF Steel 1850 1867 1867 1888 1903 1906
Recarburiser 1959 2042 2098 2197 2305 2410
TiO2 1144 1169 1197 1224 1252 1281
Other 2754 2929 3065 3174 3273 3352
WORLD TOTAL 26,532 28,605 30,378 32,105 34,040 35,796
Data: CRU
World forecast for calcinable green petroleum
(Chinese Aluminium)
31%
EAF Steel5%
Recarburiser7%
TiO24%
Slide 7
Calcinable green coke consumption forecast
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07 08 09 10 11 12
China
Middle East
CIS
Asia
N. America
L. America
Europe
Africa
E. Eur
Oceania
Slide 8
Calcinable green coke consumption forecast for the aluminium industry
Thank you for your attention.• We publish a bimonthly overview of
the latest developments in the anode grade carbon market including regional pricing and short term market assessments. Also available on-line at our www.crumonitor.com website.
• The 5-Year Carbon study – Published each November with a half-yearly update (through a conference call) covering the global carbon market and is a key tool for well-informed decision making. This year we continue to build on our findings about the carbon situation in China, especially concerning future availability of anode grade green petroleum coke.