Descriptive Epidemiology Maj Dr Naveen Phuyal MBBS, MD
Descriptive Epidemiology
Maj Dr Naveen PhuyalMBBS, MD
Introduction• A descriptive study can be defined as one in which only
one group of subjects is studied, without any comparison group, for describing the outcome in terms of its frequency and its distribution according to selected variables related to person, place and time.
• It gives a tentative guess (hypothesis) about possible role of certain factors in the outcome of interest, but does not confirm the role because of absence of a comparison group.
Characteristics• No comparison group.
• The main objective is to describe:
Incidence or prevalence of disease Describe the natural history of disease Describe the distribution of the disease according to variables
related to person, place and time.
• Makes suggestion or hypothesis about certain “cause and effect” relationship which can be further tested by analytical studies.
• First phase of an epidemiological investigation.
• These are concerned with observing the distribution of the disease or health-related characteristics in human population and identifying the characteristics with which the disease in question seems to be associated.
Descriptive studies answer 3 basic questions
• When is the disease occurring? Time distribution
• Where is it occurring? Place distribution
• Who is getting the disease? Person distribution
Steps
1. Defining the population to be studied2. Defining the disease under study3. Describing the disease by
• Time• Place• Person
4. Measurement of disease5. Comparing with known indices6. Formulation of etiological hypothesis
1. Defining the Population to be Studied
Descriptive study is the study of populations not individuals
Defining the population to be studied
• Define population base in terms of • Age • Gender • Occupation• Cultural characters etc
• Defined population can also be specially selected group• Age and Sex groups• Occupational Groups• School children• Small communities
Defining the population to be studied
• Defined population needs to be large enough
• The community should be stable
• Clear on who belong or does not
• Community should not be different from others in the region
• Health facility should be close enough
Framingham Heart Study: All above criteria were followed
Why do we need “defined population?”
• To provide denominators for calculation of rates.
• Rates are required for measurement of frequency of the disease and study of distribution and determinants.
Epidemiologist: Men in search for a denominator
2. Defining the disease under study
Defining the disease under study
• Needs of clinician and epidemiologist may diverge
• Precise and valid definition is required by epidemiologist
• Operational definition by which a disease or condition can be identified and measured in defined population with a degree of accuracy
Measles
Clinical Case definition: An illness characterized by following:
(1) Generalized rash lasting ≥ to 3 ds
(2) Temperature ≥ 1010 F
(3) Cough, Coryza or Conjunctivitis
Epidemiologist definition
• Suspected case: Any febrile illness accompanied by rash
• Probable case: A case that meets clinical case definition, has noncontributory or no serologic or virologic testing and is not epidemiologically linked to a confirmed case.
• Confirmed case: a case that is laboratory confirmed or that meets the clinical case definition and is epidemiologically linked to a confirmed case
3. Describing the disease
Describing the disease
• Time distribution– When is the disease occurring?
• Place distribution– Where is it occurring?
• Person distribution– Who is getting the disease?
Time Place Person
Year, Season Climatic zones Age Birth Order
Month, Week Country, region Sex Family size
Day, Hour of onset Urban/Rural Marital state Height
Duration Local Community Occupation Weight
Towns Social status Blood Pressure
Cities Education Blood Cholesterol
Institutions Personal Habits
Time distribution• The disease pattern may be described by its time of occurrence ie.
By week, month, year, day of weak, hour of onset etc.
• This explains weather the disease is seasonal, weather it shows periodic increase or decrease, weather it follows a consistent time trend.
• Epidemiologist have identified three different trends or fluctuations– Short term fluctuation– Periodic Fluctuation– Long term or secular trends
Short term fluctuations
• Epidemic is the best known short term fluctuation.
Types of epidemics
A. Common-source epidemicsA. Single exposure or ‘point- source’ epidemicsB. Continuous or multiple exposure epidemics
B. Propagated epidemicsA. Person to personB. Arthropod vectorC. Animal reservoir
C. Slow or modern epidemics
Periodic fluctuations
• Seasonal trendEg. Measles, Varicella, Cerebro-spinal meningitis, Upper respiratory infections, malaria etc.
Sunstroke, Hay fever, Snakebite.
• Cyclic trendMeasles, Inflenza pandemics, Automobile accidents
Long term or secular trends
• Secular means progressive increase or decrease over a long period of time
• Consistent tendency to change in a particular direction or a definite movement in one direction
• Eg CHD, Lung Cancer, DM: upward trend
• Tuberculosis, typhoid fever, diptheria, polio: downward trend
Steps
1. Defining the population to be studied2. Defining the disease under study3. Describing the disease by
• Time• Place• Person
4. Measurement of disease5. Comparing with known indices6. Formulation of etiological hypothesis
Place Distribution (Geographical comparisons)
• Geographical pathology is important dimensions of descriptive epidemiology
• International Variations• National Variations• Rural- urban variations• Local distributions
International Variation
• Pattern of disease is not same everywhere.• Ca stomach• Oral Cancer and Ca Cervix• Breast Cancer
National variations
• Endemic goitre• Lathyrism• Fluorosis• Leprosy• Malaria• Nutritional deficiency
• Chronic bronchitis• Accidents• Lung cancer• Cardiovascular disease• Mental illness and drug
dependence
• Hand, skin and zoonotic disease
• Soil transmitted helminths
• Death rates: Infant mortality, maternal mortality
Rural-urban variation
Local distributions
• Best studied by spot maps or shaded maps
• “Clustering of cases”: common source
• John Snow
Migration studies
• Comparison of disease and death rates of migrants with those of their kin who stayed at home
• Comparison of migrants with local population of the host country
Person distribution
• Age• Sex• Ethnicity• Marital Status
• Occupation• Social Class• Behavior• Stress• Migration
4. Measurement of disease
Measurement of disease
• Disease load in terms of– Mortality– Morbidity
• Incidence: longitudinal studies• Prevalence: Cross-sectional studies
– Disability
5. Comparing with known indices
Comparing with known indices
• Making comparisons and asking questions• Making comparison between different
population• Making comparison in subgroups of same
population• We can arrive at clues to disease etiology• We can also identify or define groups who are
at increased risk for certain disease
Formulation of a hypothesis
• A hypothesis is a supposition arrived at from observation
• It can be accepted or rejected using techniques of analytical epidemiology
An hypothesis should specify the following
• The population
• The specific cause being considered
• The expected outcome
• The dose-relationship
• The time-response relationship
Cigarette smoking causes lung cancer
Smoking of 30-40 cigarettes per day causes lung cancer in 10 percent of smokers after 20 years exposure
Uses of descriptive epidemiology• Provide date: magnitude of disease problems in community in
terms of morbidity and mortality rates and ratios
• Provide clues to disease etiology and help in formulation of etiological hypothesis
• Provide background for planning, organizing and evaluating preventive and curative services
• Contribute to research by describing variation of disease occurrence by time, place and person
Thank You