28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Container Corporation HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Awaiting clarity on policy We downgrade CONCOR to ADD after the sharp ~50% rally from the recent lows. While the logistics company will be a beneficiary of the DFC in the medium term, the stock will be driven by the policy guidelines of the IR ahead of its proposed privatisation, in the near term. There is a proposal to increase the land license fee by ~3x (media reports also suggest that CONCOR will have to purchase the railways land). Further, as the DFC is delayed due to COVID, volumes are expected to decline in double digits in the current fiscal. 4QFY20 Financials: Volumes for the quarter declined 4% YoY to 941k TEUs, which held up relatively well despite the COVID related disruption. Revenue decline of 14% YoY was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA margin surprised as margins expanded to 30.2%. This was due to lower railways charges (25% reduction in empty running charges by railways), lower employee expense as well as a provision write back of Rs 300mn. Reported PAT at Rs 2.94bn declined 16% YoY. Rs 206mn has been provided towards impairment of investment in its subsidiary – Fresh and Healthy. Adj PAT declined 12% YoY to Rs 3.1bn, which was above estimates. Call & other takeaways: (1) Lower guidance in FY21: The management has provided a weak guidance of 20% YoY drop in volumes in FY21E. This is due to weak demand trends/delays in DFC commissioning. (2) Increased land license fees (LLF): After handing over 15 terminals to the Indian Railways (IR), the LLF on the remaining 29 terminals will be Rs 4.5bn vs. Rs 1.4bn in FY20. The co has written to the IR on the significant increase and has requested moratorium of 3-6 months. Clarity on this is awaited. (3) Empty running: In 4QFY20, empty movement of containers (15% of volumes vs. 13% YoY) was higher owing to lower volumes. However, the railways provided a 25% discount on empty running charges, hence the cost was reduced by 11% YoY. (4) Focus on profitable business: While CONCOR has lost market share by 6% in FY20, it is due to non-participation in less profitable short lead traffic/long lead traffic where competitors are offering deep discounts. The co is focusing on providing last mile connectivity to sustain market share. (5) Scaling back on capex spends: FY21 capex has been reduced to Rs 5bn (Rs 10.5bn in FY20). Downgrade to ADD: While we are lowering our FY21 volume estimates, it will be partially offset by improved cost management. We set a TP of Rs 445 @ 22x FY22E EPS (in-line with its historic average trading multiple). Key Risks: A sharper than expected economic recovery and policy clarity on the upside, a further delay in the DFC on the downside. Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E Net Sales 15,686 18,343 (14.5) 15,276 2.7 61,572 68,819 64,738 56,811 68,782 Adj. EBITDA 4,745 3,829 23.9 3,717 27.6 12,079 14,408 16,749 14,288 17,498 APAT 3,097 3,523 (12.1) 1,755 76.5 10,445 12,154 10,282 9,404 12,231 Adj. EPS (Rs) 5.1 5.8 (12.1) 2.9 76.5 17.1 19.9 16.9 15.4 20.1 P/E (x) 25.3 21.7 25.7 28.1 21.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 19.7 18.2 14.8 17.1 13.7 RoE (%) 11.5 12.3 10.1 9.2 11.4 Source: Company, HSIE Research ADD CMP (as on 26 Jun 2020) Rs 434 Target Price Rs 445 NIFTY 10,383 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating BUY ADD Price Target Rs 445 Rs 445 EPS % FY21E FY22E -2% 0% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code CCRI IN No. of Shares (mn) 609 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 264/3,498 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 700 52 Week high / low Rs 666/263 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 41.9 (23.5) (23.8) Relative (%) 24.5 (9.0) (12.6) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 54.8 54.8 FIs & Local MFs 13.5 13.7 FPIs 27.2 26.8 Public & Others 4.5 4.7 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected]+91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected]+91-22-6171-7357
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28 June 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Container Corporation
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Awaiting clarity on policy
We downgrade CONCOR to ADD after the sharp ~50% rally from the recent
lows. While the logistics company will be a beneficiary of the DFC in the
medium term, the stock will be driven by the policy guidelines of the IR
ahead of its proposed privatisation, in the near term. There is a proposal to
increase the land license fee by ~3x (media reports also suggest that CONCOR
will have to purchase the railways land). Further, as the DFC is delayed due to
COVID, volumes are expected to decline in double digits in the current fiscal.
4QFY20 Financials: Volumes for the quarter declined 4% YoY to 941k TEUs,
which held up relatively well despite the COVID related disruption.
Revenue decline of 14% YoY was in-line with our estimates. EBITDA margin
surprised as margins expanded to 30.2%. This was due to lower railways
charges (25% reduction in empty running charges by railways), lower
employee expense as well as a provision write back of Rs 300mn. Reported
PAT at Rs 2.94bn declined 16% YoY. Rs 206mn has been provided towards
impairment of investment in its subsidiary – Fresh and Healthy. Adj PAT
declined 12% YoY to Rs 3.1bn, which was above estimates.
Call & other takeaways: (1) Lower guidance in FY21: The management has
provided a weak guidance of 20% YoY drop in volumes in FY21E. This is
due to weak demand trends/delays in DFC commissioning. (2) Increased
land license fees (LLF): After handing over 15 terminals to the Indian
Railways (IR), the LLF on the remaining 29 terminals will be Rs 4.5bn vs. Rs
1.4bn in FY20. The co has written to the IR on the significant increase and
has requested moratorium of 3-6 months. Clarity on this is awaited. (3)
Empty running: In 4QFY20, empty movement of containers (15% of
volumes vs. 13% YoY) was higher owing to lower volumes. However, the
railways provided a 25% discount on empty running charges, hence the cost
was reduced by 11% YoY. (4) Focus on profitable business: While
CONCOR has lost market share by 6% in FY20, it is due to non-participation
in less profitable short lead traffic/long lead traffic where competitors are
offering deep discounts. The co is focusing on providing last mile
connectivity to sustain market share. (5) Scaling back on capex spends:
FY21 capex has been reduced to Rs 5bn (Rs 10.5bn in FY20).
Downgrade to ADD: While we are lowering our FY21 volume estimates, it
will be partially offset by improved cost management. We set a TP of Rs 445
@ 22x FY22E EPS (in-line with its historic average trading multiple). Key
Risks: A sharper than expected economic recovery and policy clarity on the
upside, a further delay in the DFC on the downside.
We, Aditya Makharia, CA & Mansi Lall, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research
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