05 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Marico HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Saffola saves the day Marico’s performance in 4QFY20 was broadly in line with our estimates driven by a surge in Saffola. The rest of the co’s portfolio remained under pressure and lockdown decelerated PCNO/VAHO by 12/18% respectively. Co had witnessed marginal recovery in PCNO and VAHO in Jan-Feb, but it was short lived as it impacted by lockdown. Although supply side issues will be resolved in the coming months (as of now 70-80% utilisation) but demand side pressure will impact FY21 (particularly to VAHO/PC). International business (22% of total) was impacted (5% decline) by restrictions in MENA and lockdown in Bangladesh. It is expected to remain weak in FY21. Co is focusing on various cost controls and along with softness in copra in FY21 to support EBITDA margin. We cut our EPS estimates by 1% for FY20/FY21 (4/6% cut in our thematic report in April). We value Marico at 30x on Mar-22E EPS, our TP is at Rs 287. Maintain REDUCE. Saffola drives revenues: Revenues declined by 7% (+9% in 4QFY19 and -2% in 3QFY20) vs exp of 6% decline. India volume dipped 3% (+8% in 4QFY19 and -1% in 3QFY20) while the overall volume dipped 4%. PCNO witnessed a 12/8% val/vol dip while VAHO saw a sharp decline of 18/11% in val/vol. Saffola sustain surge in demand in Jan-Feb that further supported by pantry loading in March, val/vol grew by 25/25%. Margins in-line: GM expanded by 23bps to 49.3% (+239bps in 4QFY19 and +282bps in 3QFY20) vs. exp of +126bps. Employee/A&P/Other expenses declined by 8/18/2%. The dip in A&P was driven by a reduction in new product launches during the quarter and curtailment of A&P in the last week of March. EBITDA margin was up 58bps to 18.9% (+125bps in 4QFY19 and +170bps in 3QFY20) vs expectation of +59 bps. EBITDA declined by 4% YoY. EBIT margins for Domestic/International expanded by 141/3bps. Call & other takeaways: (1) 90-95% of Marico’s portfolio saw market share gains, (2) Co expects the impact of Covid-19 to be sharper at the bottom of pyramid in urban markets than in rural (3) International biz is expected to recover in the near term as key markets for the co, like Bangladesh, are opening up, (4) Co is working at 70-80% of capacity. However, restocking at the distributor level has been a challenge, (5) Co believes growth in Saffola will remain strong due to the increase in home cooking, (6) Co has launched sanitizer and Veggie clean to boost its hygiene portfolio. Sanitizer has been launched in Bangladesh and Vietnam as well. Maintain REDUCE: Marico’s business will be less volatile than some of its peers. Despite FY21 performance will be muted and we do not see any re-rating drivers in the near term. We maintain REDUCE rating. Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs mn) Q4 FY20 Q4 FY19 YoY (%) Q3 FY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Sales 14,960 16,090 (7.0) 18,240 (18.0) 73,336 73,150 73,579 79,649 EBITDA 2,820 2,940 (4.1) 3,730 (24.4) 12,919 14,690 15,454 16,859 APAT 1,950 2,114 (7.7) 2,720 (28.3) 9,285 10,364 10,886 12,197 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.51 1.64 (7.7) 2.11 (28.3) 7.19 8.03 8.43 9.45 P/E (x) 39.5 35.4 33.7 30.1 EV / EBITDA (x) 28.3 24.9 23.7 21.8 RoCE (%) 47.5 41.8 43.2 46.5 Source: Company, HSIE Research REDUCE CMP (as on 4 May 2020) Rs 284 Target Price Rs 287 NIFTY 9,294 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating REDUCE REDUCE Price Target Rs 287 Rs 287 EPS % FY21E FY22E -1% -1% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code MRCO IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,291 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 367/4,855 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 881 52 Week high / low Rs 404/234 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (7.5) (22.2) (20.1) Relative (%) 12.7 (1.2) (1.4) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 59.60 59.60 FIs & Local MFs 9.54 10.50 FPIs 23.84 22.70 Public & Others 7.02 7.20 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Varun Lohchab [email protected]+91-22-6171-7334 Naveen Trivedi [email protected]+91-22-6171-7324 Aditya Sane [email protected]+91-22-6171-7336
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05 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Marico
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Saffola saves the day
Marico’s performance in 4QFY20 was broadly in line with our estimates
driven by a surge in Saffola. The rest of the co’s portfolio remained under
pressure and lockdown decelerated PCNO/VAHO by 12/18% respectively. Co
had witnessed marginal recovery in PCNO and VAHO in Jan-Feb, but it was
short lived as it impacted by lockdown. Although supply side issues will be
resolved in the coming months (as of now 70-80% utilisation) but demand
side pressure will impact FY21 (particularly to VAHO/PC). International
business (22% of total) was impacted (5% decline) by restrictions in MENA
and lockdown in Bangladesh. It is expected to remain weak in FY21. Co is
focusing on various cost controls and along with softness in copra in FY21 to
support EBITDA margin. We cut our EPS estimates by 1% for FY20/FY21 (4/6%
cut in our thematic report in April). We value Marico at 30x on Mar-22E EPS,
our TP is at Rs 287. Maintain REDUCE.
Saffola drives revenues: Revenues declined by 7% (+9% in 4QFY19 and -2%
in 3QFY20) vs exp of 6% decline. India volume dipped 3% (+8% in 4QFY19
and -1% in 3QFY20) while the overall volume dipped 4%. PCNO witnessed
a 12/8% val/vol dip while VAHO saw a sharp decline of 18/11% in val/vol.
Saffola sustain surge in demand in Jan-Feb that further supported by pantry
loading in March, val/vol grew by 25/25%.
Margins in-line: GM expanded by 23bps to 49.3% (+239bps in 4QFY19 and
+282bps in 3QFY20) vs. exp of +126bps. Employee/A&P/Other expenses
declined by 8/18/2%. The dip in A&P was driven by a reduction in new
product launches during the quarter and curtailment of A&P in the last
week of March. EBITDA margin was up 58bps to 18.9% (+125bps in 4QFY19
and +170bps in 3QFY20) vs expectation of +59 bps. EBITDA declined by 4%
YoY. EBIT margins for Domestic/International expanded by 141/3bps.
Call & other takeaways: (1) 90-95% of Marico’s portfolio saw market share
gains, (2) Co expects the impact of Covid-19 to be sharper at the bottom of
pyramid in urban markets than in rural (3) International biz is expected to
recover in the near term as key markets for the co, like Bangladesh, are
opening up, (4) Co is working at 70-80% of capacity. However, restocking at
the distributor level has been a challenge, (5) Co believes growth in Saffola
will remain strong due to the increase in home cooking, (6) Co has launched
sanitizer and Veggie clean to boost its hygiene portfolio. Sanitizer has been
launched in Bangladesh and Vietnam as well.
Maintain REDUCE: Marico’s business will be less volatile than some of
its peers. Despite FY21 performance will be muted and we do not see any
re-rating drivers in the near term. We maintain REDUCE rating.
We, Varun Lohchab, PGDM, Naveen Trivedi, MBA & Aditya Sane, CA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views
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