To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 22 Januari, 2019 Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 6,450.8 0.0 4.6 -0.8 MSCI Indonesia 27.0 0.3 10.8 -9.3 MSCI EM 1,018.4 0.0 6.3 -17.8 HANG SENG 27,196.5 0.4 5.2 -16.4 KOSPI 2,124.6 -0.3 3.1 -15.1 FTSE 6,970.6 0 3.7 -9.7 DJIA 24,706.4 1.4 8.6 -6.5 NASDAQ 7,157.2 1.0 11.9 -3.4 Valuation 2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 15.0 2.3 17.6 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR 6.00 0 25 -100 3yr 7.86 5 22 231 10yr 8.10 1 12 193 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 14,227 0.3 -2.6 6.2 USD/KRW 1,128 0.5 0.3 5.4 USD/JPY 110 -0.1 -0.7 -1.1 USD/CNY 7 0.0 -1.9 5.8 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 53.8 3.3 18.0 2.6 Gold 1,280.5 -0.1 0.9 -4.0 Coal 99.4 -0.4 -2.3 -6.9 Palm Oil 2,142.0 1.0 3.9 -13.1 Rubber 134.1 0.0 11.4 3.3 Nickel 11,800.0 -0.2 8.5 -8.2 Copper 6,052.0 1.0 1.0 -14.0 Tin 20,650.0 0.1 6.6 0.1 JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets Market commentary Hariyanto Wijaya CFA, CPA (Aust), CMT ([email protected]) IHSG ditutup flat +0,0% pada hari Senin. Sektor agriculture menguat kemarin di balik optimisme pada harga CPO oleh Dorab Mistry, yang memperkirakan harga CPO akan melonjak ke MYR2, 400 per ton pada akhir Maret 2019. Kami memperkirakan IHSG trade mixed to lower hari ini di balik lemahnya Pertumbuhan PDB China dan IMF’s revised down FY19 world economic growth. Financial market AS tutup untuk Martin Luther King Jr. holiday pada hari Senin. China mencatat pertumbuhan PDB 4Q18 sebesar 6,4% YoY (sesuai dengan ekspektasi konsensus), pertumbuhan paling lambat sejak 1Q09. Sementara itu, China membukukan pertumbuhan PDB FY18 sebesar 6,6% YoY (sesuai dengan ekspektasi konsensus), pertumbuhan paling lambat sejak 1991. Data ekonomi yang lemah menggarisbawahi pandangan bahwa pemerintah China harus mengeluarkan lebih banyak stimulus untuk mencegah perlambatan yang lebih tajam. IMF memangkas perkiraan FY19 pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia menjadi 3,5% YoY (vs forecast 3,7% pada Oktober lalu), laju terlemah dalam tiga tahun. INTP’s 4Q18 preview: Margin improvement likely Mimi Halimin ([email protected]) Sales volume growth slowed in December, but full-year figure was in line Untuk bulan Desember, volume penjualan semen domestik Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP) turun 5.0% MoM menjadi 1.5mn ton, karena faktor musiman (liburan dan musim hujan). Secara kumulatif pada tahun 2018, volume penjualan domestik INTP tumbuh 5.7% YoY menjadi 17.7mn ton, melampaui pertumbuhan industri (+4.7% YoY) dan sejalan dengan perkiraan kami. Profit margins likely improved due to softer coal prices Kami memperkirakan revenue 4Q18 INTP di IDR4.3tr (+10.9% YoY, +1.3% QoQ), menjadikan pendapatan setahun penuh sebesar IDR15.1tr, in line dengan konsensus. Meskipun pertumbuhan ASP pada November dan Desember flat, ASP Oktober meningkat di Jawa, positif untuk margin. Faktor positif lainnya adalah harga batubara, yang turun secara substansial pada Oktober-Desember. Mengingat adanya ekspektasi peningkatan profit margin, kami merevisi perkiraan laba bersih kami; kami sekarang memperkirakan laba bersih 4Q18 mencapai IDR302.2bn, turun 33.3% YoY (mengingat kontraksi margin yang signifikan), tetapi naik 15.1% QoQ karena margin yang lebih baik. Demand growth is still challenging Kami berharap volume penjualan domestik INTP akan tumbuh moderat sekitar 5% pada tahun 2019, karena prospek permintaan semen yang masih challenging. Upgrade recommendation to Hold with TP of IDR18,025 Kami menaikkan rekomendasi kami pada INTP dari Sell ke Hold dan menaikkan TP kami ke IDR18,025, karena prospek margin yang lebih baik. Selain itu, sejalan dengan perkembangan positif dari konsolidasi yang sedang berlangsung, kami percaya margin INTP dapat meningkat lebih lanjut ditopang ASP yang lebih baik di masa depan. Namun, saat ini kami melihat valuasi INTP relatif tinggi. Harga saat ini (IDR18,800 per 18 Januari) dan perkiraan laba bersih kami diterjemahkan menjadi 2019 P/E sebesar 49.2x, jauh lebih tinggi dari Semen Indonesia (SMGR; 24.6x). 550 800 1,050 1,300 1,550 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 01/1607/1601/1707/1701/1807/1801/19 JCI MSCI EM (pt) (pt)
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Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,406.0
_____ 2,217.1
2,296.7
ERAA.JK [ ERAA.JK ] - Daily - 1/21/2019
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,296.7
R-Squared: 0.7510
Period: 54
Std.Dev : 1.15
Volatility (+) : 0.0476
Volatility (-) : -0.0346
V-Ratio : 1.38
Chg.: -3.03%
2,240
7 14 21
ERAA.JK - Volume = 67,077,200.00 67,077,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,462.2
_____ 2,169.5
2,296.7
ERAA.JK [ ERAA.JK ] - Weekly - 1/27/2019
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,296.7
R-Squared: 0.6913
Period: 89
Std.Dev : 1.01
Volatility (+) : 0.0721
Volatility (-) : -0.0554
V-Ratio : 1.30
Chg.: -3.03%
2,240
Dec 2019
ERAA.JK - Volume = 67,077,200.00
67,077,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 2,704.8
_____ 2,108.2
2,336.7
ERAA.JK [ ERAA.JK ] - Monthly - 1/21/2019
Prev . Av g. Price: 2,336.7
R-Squared: 0.6663
Period: 30
Std.Dev : 0.96
Volatility (+) : 0.1576
Volatility (-) : -0.0978
V-Ratio : 1.61
Chg.: 1.82%
2,240
Apr Jul Oct 2019
ERAA.JK - Volume = 446,312,000.00
446,312,000
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Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are Jan 18th, 2019
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
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Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,642.1 3.7 BNLI IJ 855 23,977 21.28
Mining 1,896.2 0.8
DSSA IJ 17825 13,735 14.3
Basic-Industry 890.2 0.1 LSIP IJ 1440 9,825 7.9
Miscellaneous Industry 1,423.6 -1.4 SIMP IJ 530 8,383 7.29
Consumer Goods 2,599.5 -0.3 TBLA IJ 960 5,128 7.26
Property & Construction 465.5 -1.3
BWPT IJ 193 6,084 7.22
Infrastructure 1,154.8 0.5 AALI IJ 12875 24,780 6.40
Finance 1,239.2 0.4 FREN IJ 106 18,138 6.00
Trade 794.8 -0.3 ESSA IJ 376 5,377 5.62
Composite 6,450.8 0.0 LPPF IJ 6275 18,310 4.58 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
BBCA IJ 2.2 27,725 ASII IJ -1.8 8,325
BNLI IJ 21.3 855 BMRI IJ -1.0 7,800
DSSA IJ 14.3 17,825 BBNI IJ -1.9 9,225
BYAN IJ 2.8 18,400 BBRI IJ -0.5 3,800
SMGR IJ 2.2 12,975 GGRM IJ -1.3 82,775 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
12:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.5% 0.5%
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 3.3% 3.3%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 1.1B 6.3B
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1%
4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 20.1K 21.9K
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -18.8 -17.5
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment -20.1 -21.0
8:30am CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.8% -0.1%
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m -0.3% 1.0%
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 5.27M 5.32M
10:30am AUD CB Leading Index m/m -0.5%
4:45pm NZD CPI q/q 0.0% 0.9%
6:30pm AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.1%
6:50pm JPY Trade Balance -0.29T -0.49T
Tentative JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BOJ Policy Rate -0.10% -0.10%
11:30pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m -0.4% 1.9%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
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