21st april,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter www.ricepluss.com

1

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice

Newsletter

Volume 5, Issue I

April 21, 2015


2

Japan May Not Accept U.S. Demands on Rice

Import Quota in TPP Talks

Apr 20, 2015

Japan may not bend to the U.S.

demands over increasing its rice

import quota as part of the Trans-

Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks,

according to Bloomberg.Japan's

Economy Minister who met with the

U.S Trade Reprehensive on April 19

in Tokyo as part of a two-day meeting

ahead of the two leaders' meeting in

Washington on April 28, told reporters

that U.S. is pressing for an increase in

rice imports from the U.S. by about

215,000 tons, of which 175,000 tons is

aimed for table rice consumption and the remaining for food processing. “We cannot accept all

the U.S. requests on rice imports. We will negotiate cautiously for a deal that could be accepted

by Japanese lawmakers,” he was quoted as saying.

He noted that a decision could be taken in the interest of Japanese rice farmers. Japan is likely to

agree to increase the U.S. rice import quota by about 50,000 tons, a quarter of the U.S.

demand.However, last week, experts noted that Japan may propose to increase imports from the

U.S. by about 100,000 tons annually during the Japanese premier's visit to the U.S. this month.

The Minister expressed hope that the two leaders would come to amicable terms on the Japanese

farm and the U.S auto parts issues, which have been major hindrances in taking the TPP talks

ahead. Once Japan the U.S. complete the bilateral talks, Japanese Congress would pass the

Trade-Promotion Authority Bill, he said.Japan imported about 360,000 tons of rice from the U.S.

in FY 2013-14. Currently, Japan imports about 770,000 tons of rice under the annual minimum

market access (MMA) quota as per the World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations. The WTO

regulations require Japan to import half of the mandatory 770,000 tons from the U.S. The rice

imports above the MMA quota carry a prohibitive import tariff of around 778%.USDA estimates

Japan to produce around 7.7 million tons of rice and import around 700,000 tons of rice in MY

2014-15 (November - October) to meet annual consumption needs of around 8.15 million tons.


3

India Exports 10.81 Million Tons of Rice in

First Eleven Months of FY 2014-15, Up 8.5%

from Last Year

Apr 20, 2015

India exported around 10.81 million tons of rice (including basmati and non-basmati) in the first

eleven months of FY 2014-15 (April - March), up about 8.5% from around 9.96 million tons

exported during the same period in FY 2013-14, according to provisional data released by the

Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).

In value terms, India’s total rice exports have earned around Rs.43,722 crore (around $7.16

billion) during April 2014 – February 2015, up about 2% from around Rs.42,733 crore (around

$7 billion) earned during the same period in FY 2013-14. In USD terms, value of rice exports

during the eleven-month period increased by about 2% y/y.


4

India's basmati rice exports have declined about 4% to around 3.3 million tons in April 2014 -

February 2015 from around 3.44 million tons exported during the same period in FY 2013-14. In

value terms, basmati rice exports declined to about Rs.25,087 crore (around $4.12 billion) during

the first eleven months of FY 2014-15, down about 5% from around Rs.26,515 crore (around

$4.4 billion) earned in the same period in FY 2013-14. In USD terms, India’s basmati rice

exports declined by 6% y/y in April 2014 – February 2015.India's basmati rice exports were

primarily impacted due to Iran's ban on rice imports since November 2014.

India’s non-basmati rice exports in April 2014 - February 2015 increased to around 7.51 million

tons, up about 15% from around 6.52 million tons recorded in the same period in FY 2013-14. In

value terms, non-basmati rice exports earned about Rs.18,635 crore (around $3 billion), up about

15% from around Rs.16,218 crore (around $2.67 billion) in the same period in FY 2013-14. In

dollar terms, non-basmati rice exports increased by 12%y/y during the ten-month period.

FAO Forecasts India 2015 Rice Exports to

Decline 18% y/y to 9.3 Million Tons

Apr 20, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted India's 2015 rice exports to

decline about 18% to around 9.3 million tons from around 10.9 million tons exported in 2014

due to an estimated lower harvest in 2014.Assuming a good monsoon season and continued

government support to the rice sector, the FAO estimates the total paddy rice production for

2015 at around 158.2 million tons (around 106 million tons, basis milled), up about 2% from last

year's output of about 154.6 million tons (around 103.6 million tons, basis milled).

It forecasts the output from the 2014-15 secondary rabi rice crop at around 20.2 million tons

(around 13.5 million tons, basis milled), 11% down from around 22.69 million tons last year

(around 15.2 million tons, basis milled). Reduced water levels in major reservoirs due to weak

monsoons coupled with below-average rains in October and November over most of the country

delayed planting for winter rice crop, and is likely to affect the rabi rice output this year.

Harvesting of the rabi rice crop is going on and will complete in May.Rice prices in March

remained stable or decreased in most markets as downward pressure from the beginning of 2015

secondary season harvest. However, the price declines are offset by the ongoing government's

procurement program. The government aims to procure around 30.05 of rice in the 2014-15

marketing season (October - September).


5

Madagascar Imports 200,000 Tons of Rice in

First Three Months of 2015

Apr 20, 2015

Madagascar has imported about 200,000 tons of rice in the first three months of 2015 to

compensate for a likely loss of expected output from cyclones that hit the major rice producing

regions of the country since January this year, according to local sources.The country's

Agriculture Minister told local sources that a series of cyclones, including tropical storm Chedza,


6

Cyclone Fundi and Cyclone Haliba, from the beginning of this year have damages about 20,000

hectares of rice area in the country and the output is likely to decline by about 15-20% compared

to last year.

The Minister noted that the government had increased rice imports by about 50,000 tons from the

earlier planned volume to avoid a shortage.Madagascar imported around 363,423 tons of rice in

2014, down about 11% from around 410,373 tons imported in 2013 due to a rise in production,

according to local sources. Madagascar usually imports more rice in the lean season (September

- January). It imported around 140,000 tons of rice in the 2014 lean season and around 300,000

tons of rice in 2013 lean season. If the production declines, the government may have to further

increase imports in the lean season.

The island country in the Indian Ocean produced around 4.3 million tons of paddy rice in 2014,

up about 19% from around 3.6 million tons produced in 2013 due to well distributed rains in the

2013-14 cropping season.USDA estimates Madagascar to produce about 2.75 million tons of rice


7

basis milled (around 4.3 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 350,000 tons in MY

2014-15 (May 2014 – April 2015).

Thai Supreme Court Decides to Prosecute

Former Commerce Minister in Rice Pledging

Case; First Trial to Commence on June 29,

2015

Apr 20, 2015

A panel of Thailand's Supreme Court Judges has decided to accept the case filed by the Office of

the Attorney-General (OAG) against the former Commerce Minister and 20 other individuals for

their alleged corruption in government-to-government (G2G) rice deals with two Chinese

companies, according to local sources.The nine judge panel, which was convinced that the there


8

was enough evidence to bring the case of trial, has announced that the first trial against the 21

individuals will commence on June 29, 2015. If found guilty, the 21 individuals, including the

former Commerce Minister, may face life imprisonments as well as a fine of up to 35.2 billion

baht (around $1.1 million).

Separately, the Thai National Legislative Assembly (NLA) will begin hearing in the

impeachment case against the former Commerce Minister, former Deputy Commerce Minister

and former Director-General of the Department of Foreign Trade on April 23, 2015, for their

alleged corruption in G2G rice deals with two Chinese companies.The Thai NLA impeached the

former Prime Minister on January 23, 2015 for encouraging corruption in the rice pledging

scheme introduced by her government in October 2011. The Supreme Court has decided to

prosecute her in the rice pledging case and the first hearing is scheduled for May 19, 2015.The

NACC advised the government to file a civil suit against the former PM as well as the 21

individuals to recover the money lost in the rice program, which the Finance Ministry claims to

be about 600 billion baht (around $18 billion).

Philippines First Quarter Paddy Output May

Be Lower Than Government Forecast of 4.59

Million Tons, Says BAS

Apr 20, 2015

The Philippines first quarter paddy rice output is likely to be below the government forecast of

around 4.59 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, according to the Bureau of

Agricultural Statistics (BAS), reports Reuters.The BAS estimates the country's Q1 paddy output

at around 4.47 million tons. It attributes the decline to a reduction in paddy rice acreage and a

drop in yield due to occurrence of typhoons, intense heat, insufficient water supply, incidence of

pests and diseases and strong winds.

However, the output is expected to be 3.9% higher than last year's first quarter output of around

4.31 million tons.USDA estimates Philippines MY 2014-15 (July - June) paddy rice production

at around 19.365 million tons (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled), up about 3% from around

18.822 million tons (around 11.86 million tons, basis milled) produced in the previous year. It

estimates the Philippines to import around 1.6 million tons of rice in 2015.


9

Pakistan Rice Exports Increase Sharply in

March 2015

Apr 20, 2015

Pakistan's total exports, including basmati and non-basmati, increased sharply in March 2015

after declining in January and February.Pakistan exported around 472,357 tons of rice (including

basmati and non-basmati) in March 2015, up about 33% from around 355,747 tons exported in

February 2015, according to provisional data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). In

terms of value, Pakistan's rice export earnings increased about 24% to around $215 million in

March 2015 from around $173.27 million earned in February 2015.


10

Year-on-year, Pakistan’s exports increased about 40% from around 338,415 tons exported in

March 2014. In terms of value, they declined about 1% from around $217 million in March

2014.

Pakistan exported around 42,569 tons of basmati rice in March 2015, up about 14% from around

37,374 tons exported in February 2015, and down about 30% from around 61,249 tons exported

in March 2014. In terms of value, Pakistan's basmati rice exports earned $48.5 million in March

2015, up about 14% from around $42.4 million earned in February 2015, and down about 37%

from around $76.5 million earned in March 2014.Pakistan exported around 429,788 tons of non-

basmati rice in March 2015, up about 35% from around 318,373 tons exported in February 2015

and up about 55% from around 277,166 tons in March 2014. In terms of value, Pakistan's non-

basmati rice exports earned $166.4 million in March 2015, up about 27% from around $130.87

million earned in February 2015, and up about 19% from around $140.22 million earned in

March 2014.

Pakistan has exported around 3.09 million tons of rice (around 393,483 tons of basmati and around 2.7

million tons of non-basmati) in the first nine months of FY 2014-15 (July 2014 - June 2015), up about 4%

from around 2.97 million tons (around 479,751 tons of basmati and around 2.49 million tons of non-

basmati) exported during the same period in FY 2013-14. In terms of value, Pakistan's exports earned

around $1,569 million (around $406.65 million from basmati and around $1,163.2 million from non-

basmati) in July 2014 - March 2015, down about 6% from around $1,667 million (around $542.42 million

from basmati and around $1,124.6 million from non-basmati) earned during the same period in 2013-14

Philippines Domestic Rice Prices Show

Diverse Trends in March 2015

Apr 20, 2015

Average domestic rice prices in the Philippines showed diverse trends in March 2015, according

to data from the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). While retail prices of both

well-milled rice (WMR) and regular-milled rice (RMR) declined, wholesale prices of WMR and

RMR increased.

In March 2015, average retail prices of WMR declined to around P42.28, slightly down from

around P42.61 per kilogram in February 2015 and up about 3% from around P41.09 per

kilogram in March 2014. Average wholesale prices of WMR increased to around P39.49 per

kilogram, up about 2% from around P38.54 per kilogram in February 2015 and up about 2%

from around P38.56 per kilogram in March 2014.


11

Average retail prices of RMR declined to around P37.8 per kilogram, down about 1% from

around P38.29 per kilogram in February 2015 and unchanged from their year-ago levels.

Average wholesale prices of RMR increased to around P35.41 per kilogram, up about 1% from

around P35.02 per kilogram in February 2015 and down about 1% from around P35.83 per

kilogram in March 2014.

In terms of USD per ton (using historical exchange rates), average retail prices of WMR declined

to around $952 per ton in March 2015, down about 1% from around $965 per ton in February

2015. Average wholesale prices of WMR increased to around $889 per ton, up about 2% from

around $873 per ton in February 2015. Average retail prices of RMR declined to around $851

per ton, down about 2% from around $867 per ton in February 2015. Average retail prices of

RMR increased to around $797 per ton, slightly up from around $793 per ton in February 2015.

The average retail price of WMR in the Philippines increased to around P42.64 per kilogram in

January - March 2015, up about 6% from around P40.28 per kilogram during the same period in

2014, while the average wholesale price of WMR increased to around P39.09 per kilogram in


12

January - March 2015, up about 3% from around P37.79 per kilogram during the same period in

2014.Average retail price of RMR increased to around P38.35 per kilogram in January - March

2015, up about 3.5% from around P37.05 per kilogram during the same period in 2014. Average

wholesale price of RMR increased to around P35.34 per kilogram in January - March 2015,

slightly up from around P35.08 per kilogram during the same period in 2014, the BAS says.

In terms of USD per ton (using historical exchange rates), the average retail price of WMR stood

at about $961 per ton in January - March 2015, up about 6% from around $901 per ton during the

same period in 2014. Average wholesale price of WMR increased to about $881 per ton in

January - March 2015, up about 9% from around $805 per ton during the same period in 2014.

Average retail price of RMR increased to about $864 per ton in January - March 2015, up about

4% from around $829 per ton during the same period in 2014. Average wholesale price of RMR

increased to about $797 per ton in January - March 2015, up about 1.5% from around $785 per

ton during the same period in 2014.

FAO Forecasts China 2015 Rice Imports at

2.7 Million Tons; Unchanged from Last Year

Apr 20, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted China's 2015 rice imports at

around 2.7 million tons, similar to last year's above-average level. It forecasts total cereal imports

in the 2014-15 marketing year at all-time high of 23 million tons, up about 12% from 2013-14.

The FAO estimates China’s 2014 paddy rice production at around 207 million tons (around 145

million tons, basis milled), slightly up from around 206.4 million tons last year (around 144.4

million tons, basis milled). The increase is attributed to a slight increase in area planted,

prompted by higher minimum purchase/support prices (MSP) and other government support

measures, including direct payments to farmers and subsidies for seed and machinery as well as

other agricultural inputs.Planting of the 2015 minor early rice crop, which is normally grown in

the southern parts of the country and accounts for about 16% of total rice production, is almost

complete. The FAO expects the total output from this crop at around 34.1 million tons (around

23.87 million tons, basis milled).


13

Average prices of Japonica rice remained stable despite increased supplies from the ongoing

2014 harvest due to the government support measures and strong demand.China has imported

around 189,700 tons of rice in first two months (January - February) of 2015, down about 44%

from around 338,700 tons imported during the same period in 2014, according to data from

China Customs General Administration.USDA estimates China to produce around 144.5 million

tons of rice, basis milled, import around 4.4 million tons and export around 400,000 tons of rice

in MY 2014-15 (July - June).

Thailand Rice Exports May Decline 1% y/y

to 10 Million Tons in 2015 Amid Stiff

Competition and Falling Prices

Apr 20, 2015


14

Thailand is targeting to export about 10 million tons of rice in 2015, Bloomberg quoted Thai

Commerce Minister as saying. He told reporters that Thailand exported around 2.7 million tons

of rice from January - mid-April.In the beginning of the year, Thailand hoped to export 11

million tons of rice this year after exporting a record 10.97 million tons in 2014. However, due to

a stiff competition with Vietnam, India and Pakistan as well as falling prices and demand,

Thailand has been experiencing a decline in exports for the last couple of months.

Exporters opined that buyers are postponing their purchase needs in hope of a further fall in

prices.The Thai government is currently holding over 17 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and

is planning to sell around 10 million tons of rice, including 6 million tons of good quality rice. It

is planning to sell about 4 million tons of low quality rice after August this year. The Thai

military government sold about 1.88 million tons of rice from six auctions raising around 25.58

billion baht (around $785.2 million) since it seized power in May 2014. It also reportedly sold

one million tons of rice under government-to-government contracts.

The government also delayed this year's third auction to avert downward pressure on already

falling rice prices. It is understood to be carefully evaluating markets to decide over the timing

for reopening bidding for its government stocks, according to local sources.Export prices of Thai


15

5% rice currently stands at around $387 per ton, down about 5.6% from around $410 per ton in

the beginning of this year. Export prices of India 5% rice and Vietnam 5% rice declined about

3.8% and 5.2% to around $375 per ton and $360 per ton respectively since the beginning of this

year.

Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes

Unchanged

Apr 20, 2015

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for Hommali rice by about $5 per ton to around $895-

$905 per ton today. Other Asia rice quotes are unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton, about a $25 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $355 - $365 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $370

- $380 per ton, about a $5 per ton discount to Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $355 - $365 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $335- $345 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$345 - $355, about a $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $330 - $340

per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $380 - $390 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

shown at around $380 - $390 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $320 - $330 per ton, about a $10 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton.


16

India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, about a $10 per ton discount

to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $285 - $295 per ton.

Global Rice Quotes

April 21st, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 395-405 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 355-365 ↔

India 5% broken 370-380 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 410-420 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 435-445 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 480-490 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 575-585 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 355-365 ↔


Pakistan 25% broken 330-340 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 345-355 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 470-480 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 380-390 ↔


17

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 380-390 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 365-375 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 895-905 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 485-495 ↑

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 810-820 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 320-330 ↔


Pakistan 100% broken stxd 285-295 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 345-355 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 370-380 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com


18

Vietnam Exports About 1.144 Million Tons of

Rice During January 1 – April 13, 2015

Apr 20, 2015

Vietnam exported about 1.144 million tons of rice in January 1 - April 13, 2015, down about

35% from about 1.76 million tons of rice exported in first four months of 2014, according to data

from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Average rice export price so far in this year stands at

about $413 per ton (FOB), down about 5% per ton from about $435 per ton recorded in April

2014.During April 1-13, 2015, Vietnam exported about 238,582 tons of rice, down about 56%

from about 537,094 tons rice exported in full month of April 2014, and down about 50% from

about 480,490 tons rice exported in full month of March 2015. Average export prices in so far in

March stands at about $380 per ton, down about 14% from a year ago, and down about 4% per

ton from a month ago.

21st april,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

Documents