2020 merging and smarter markets edited - MCE 2014

2020 – Merging and ever

smarter markets

Andrew Giles

MOSTRA

19th March 2014

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

HVAC balance of power shifting to China

Europe: energy efficiency & big changes

Top players merge and move into other hvac

Connected futures, big data and mid-market

Smart revolution

The key players in the smart future

3 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Global HVAC Market Value

Europe analysis based on following countries:

Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK

Total 2013 market value: €92.3bln

NAmerica

€21.2bln

China

€30.4bln

Japan

€17.6bln Europe

€25.9bln

4 Excellence in Market Intelligence

World air conditioning market, 2011-2016

Total 2013:

117.2 million units

4

5 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Energy Related Product Directive (ErP)

Under the regulation, new seasonal efficiency requirements and new energy labels are introduced

for air conditioning products with capacity ranges up to 12 kW.

From 1 January 2013 SEER SCOP From 1 January 2014 SEER SCOP

GWP of refrigerant > 150 3.6 3.4 GWP of refrigerant > 150 for <6kW 4.6 3.8

GWP of refrigerant ≤ 150 3.24 3.06 GWP of refrigerant ≤ 150 for <6kW 4.14 3.42

GWP of refrigerant > 150 for 6-12kW 4.3 3.8

GWP of refrigerant ≤ 150 for 6 to 12 kW 3.87 3.42

Efficiency requirements for air conditioners, except single and double ducted.

Consequences

On/off air conditioner is no longer able to be sold in EU.

The energy efficiency requirement will be reviewed every 1-2 years.

ErP on heat pump

Heat pump follows the energy efficiency regulation

of boiler, water heater and air conditioner.

Only heat pumps with an efficiency class of A+ and

better will be allowed in the market.

Energy label for a heat

pump that runs on both

35 and 55 degrees.

Mandatory from 2015.

Seasonal space heating

energy efficiency classes

Seasonal space heating

energy efficiency, %

A+++ >175%

A++ 150 - 175%

A+ 123 – 150%

Seasonal space heating efficiency classes of low-

temp heat pumps and heat pump space heaters for

low-temp application.

The following energy efficiency rating requirements

are extracted from the boiler relation.

7 Excellence in Market Intelligence

BACS – More Intelligent Systems

7

HVAC

systems

becoming

more

‘intelligent’

Growth in

Variable

Refrigerant

Flow

Communi-

cating Room

Controllers

8 Excellence in Market Intelligence

HOME

AUTOMATION

HOME

AUTOMATION

HOME AUTOMATION

Home Automation Trends – Towards the Ubiquitous Home

8

Source:

BSRIA

9 Excellence in Market Intelligence

“Smart Homes” solutions Penetrating other Sectors too…

9

BACS systems

concentrated in largest

buildings

Big ‘gap’ in the market at

the light commercial end.

Residential, 66%

Hotels, 10%

Other commercial buildin

gs, 24%

Europe "Smart Homes" Market 2010*

With BACS

System, 22%

Without BACS

system, 78%

% of US Commercial Floor Space

In Europe, ‘ smart homes’ are

exploiting this ‘gap in the market..

Residential

50%

Hotels 12%

Other Commerc

ial Buildings

38%

Europe Smart Homes Market 2012

10 Excellence in Market Intelligence

BACS – The Challenge of Software and the Cloud

10

Big Buildings

-Big Data Advanced

Analytics

The Cloud: -

Universal Access

Major opportunities for IT companies which combine these

But also new threats… E.g. cyber-security…

11 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Building Energy Management Solutions (BEMS)

11

•Growing Pressure

to improve Energy

Performance of

Buildings.

Data and

Analytics

Metering

& Sub-

Metering

Energy

Supply

Manage-

ment

Ongoing

Commis-

sioning

Cloud Delivery / Software as a Service

Scalability

Solutions Targeted at Vertical Sectors

12 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Growth in the BEMS Market

12

Steady growth globally

2013 value c. $3.8 billion.

EU USA Rest ofWorld

20% 18%

42%

BEMS CAGR 2009 - 2013

EU 57%

USA 27%

Rest of

World 16%

BEMS Market Share 2013

13 Excellence in Market Intelligence 13

Many BEMS Opportunities Are in Retrofit

Non-Residential Building Stock by Age, EU-27,

2011

Non-Residential Building Stock by Age, USA , 2011

Pre 1960

41%

1960 - 1990

44%

1991 - 2010

Pre 1960 1960 - 1990

1991 - 2010

15%

33%

52%

15%

EU USA

Buildings built 1960 – 1990 represent big retrofit opportunity….

14 Excellence in Market Intelligence 14

Many Smart Technologies Interact

Smart Devices

Smart

Appliances

Smart

Devices

Building

Automation Building En’gy

Management

Smart

Homes

Demand

Response Smart Grid

Management

Smart

Metering

Smart Cities / Smart Government

Smart

Transport

Smart Distr.

Energy

Smart

Education

Smart

Government

Smart Health

Smart Publ.

Security

Smart

Telecoms Smart HVAC

DR Energy

Storage +

Renewables

Smart Grid

Smart Buildings

15 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Key Advancing Technologies

15

Smart Meters

Smart Cities

Smart Grid

Building Automation

Smart Government

Smart Appliances

Smart Devices

A

Converged

Smart

World Smart Homes

Smart Energy Storage

Building Energy Management

16 Excellence in Market Intelligence 16

Europe’s return

to growth will

benefit most of

the ‘smart ‘

technology

markets

Smart Technologies to Lift Off in Europe

Some

technologies

like Energy

Storage are set

to grow almost

exponentially.

Global Rank

Company

1 Siemens

3 Schneider Electric

7 ABB

11 e.on

13 SAP

16 Dalkia - Veolia

18 Cofely (GDF Suez)

20 Vodafone

26 EDF

30 Belimo

Of BSRIA’s Top 30

global Smart companies,

10 are European:

17 Excellence in Market Intelligence

About BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

A globally recognised source of strategic market intelligence and consultancy in the building and

construction industry.

17

Air conditioning

Heating

Renewable Energy

Smart Technology

IT