2016-05-17 CTP Update and Assessment

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

May 17, 2016

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. The operational tempo of U.S.-supported Somali special operations forces raids against al Shabaab increased.

2. ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt began an explosive attack campaign designed to degrade the Yemeni security forces in al Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt governorate in eastern Yemen.

3. The promise of international arms and training for the anti-ISIS fight in Libya will likely exacerbate competition between Libyan armed factions and gives Russia an opportunity to oppose NATO in Libya.

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ASSESSMENT:

Political

Backchannel negotiations continue as the UN-led talks stall. Saudi and al Houthi officials messaged rapprochement, while

international parties reportedly advanced informal proposals for a transitional unity government. President Abdu Rabbu

Mansour Hadi’s insistence on the talks’ current agenda may be driving a rift between his government and its coalition partners.

Currency fluctuations and utility shortages in urban areas create conditions for unrest against local governments.

Outlook: Al Houthi and possibly GPC leaders will seek to leverage international pressure to reach an agreement on a

transitional government. Hadi government and al Houthi officials may cooperate to stabilize the Yemeni riyal.

Security

The Saudi-led coalition continues to frame attacks on al Houthi-Saleh positions as retaliation for ceasefire violations. The

coalition shelled al Houthi-Saleh positions near the Saudi-Yemeni border in Sa’ada and conducted airstrikes in al Hudaydah

and Amran following an al Houthi-Saleh ballistic missile launch toward Saudi Arabia. Al Houthi-Saleh forces are mobilizing

toward al Sabihah, Lahij and Lawder, Abyan in response to pressure from southern militias in al Waziyah, Taiz.

Outlook: Al Houthi-Saleh forces will likely continue to mobilize to the south. Clashes with Saudi-led coalition forces will likely

intensify along the Yemeni-Saudi border while clashes with coalition-backed forces will continue in al Jawf, Taiz and Sana’a.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen

AQAP and ISIS continue to contest the reestablishment of government control in Hadramawt. AQAP claimed a suicide vehicle-

borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on a senior military official in Wadi Hadramawt. ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt

militants conducted SVBIED and suicide belt attacks on Yemeni military targets in al Mukalla, claiming the latter as part of

ISIS’s “Invasion of Sheikh Abu Ali al Anbari” campaign. ISIS affiliates in Iraq, Libya and Egypt have claimed multiple explosive

attacks as part of this campaign since April 30.

Outlook: Both ISIS and AQAP will continue carrying out attacks targeting military and security personnel in Hadramawt.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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1) 15 MAY: ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt detonated a SVEST in al Mukalla.2) 12 MAY: ISIS Wilayat Hadramawt detonated a SVBIED in al Mukalla.3) 11 MAY: AQAP detonated a SVBIED in al Qatan, Wadi Hadramawt. 4) 11 MAY: Special Security Forces intercepted a SVBIED near Aden airport.

5) 13 MAY: Security forces dismantled two likely VBIEDs in al Mukalla, Hadramawt.

ASSESSMENT:

Political

The Somali government is opposed to the Kenyan government’s stated plan to close Dadaab refugee complex, noting that it

will increase insecurity in Somalia. Al Shabaab may further use the event to bolster recruitment in northeastern Kenya. An al

Shabaab spokesman denied Kenyan accusations that the group planned attacks from Dadaab and insinuated that the

government is threatening to close the camp in order to secure international counterterrorism funding.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will increase its recruitment efforts targeting Somali refugees in Kenya.

Security

A series of U.S.-backed Somali special operations forces (SOF) raids against al Shabaab camps and bases signaled a step-

change in the operational tempo against al Shabaab. U.S. advisers are supporting U.S.-trained Somali SOF in a campaign in

south-central Somalia. U.S. advisers and helicopters supported two operations along the Afgoi-Awdheegle road this week and

provided transport helicopters for Somali SOF for a raid at Torotarow. The U.S. is also defending partners in the African Union

Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). U.S. forces provided air support to Ugandan AMISOM troops near Barire village this week in an

operation confirmed by the Pentagon.

Outlook: U.S.-backed Somali SOF may not be able to sustain the operational tempo as al Shabaab adapts its force posture to

mitigate against such raids.

Al Shabaab

Al Shabaab is continuing efforts to develop its capability to bomb commercial airliners, a capability that al Qaeda in the Arabian

Peninsula likely attempted to transfer to the group. Somali security forces disrupted a laptop bomb cell in Mogadishu, seizing

seven computers modified to carry explosives as well as unstable chemicals. Al Shabaab detonated a laptop bomb on a Daallo

Airlines flight in February 2016 and attempted to place a printer cartridge bomb on a commercial plane in Beledweyne in March.

The development of laptop bombs makes al Shabaab a threat outside of East Africa.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to pursue a high-profile commercial airline bombing in order to gain global notoriety.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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1) 12, 16 MAY: SNA and AMISOM forces cleared al Shabaab positions in Lower Shabelle.

2) 12 MAY: SNA SOF disrupted an al Shabaab leadership meeting in Torotarow, Lower Shabelle.

3) 11 MAY: SNA SOF raided al Shabaab camp near Timire, Galgudud region.

4) 14 MAY: Al Shabaab executed four elders for espionage near Adan-Yabaal, Hiraan region.

ASSESSMENT:

Political

The U.S. and twenty other countries are considering arming and training forces for the Libyan Government of National Accord

(GNA), according to a statement signed by the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Egypt and the UAE continue to

advocate support for General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), likely with tacit Russian support.

Outlook: Competition for international arms support will exacerbate divisions between Libya’s armed factions.

Security

Misratan forces launched a counteroffensive against ISIS militants aimed at seizing back its easternmost staging ground at

Abugrein. Misratan senior leadership have indicated that their forces require foreign logistical and material support in order to

effectively take on ISIS. The LNA launched an operation to liberate Derna from a local shura council, which has ties to an al

Qaeda associate. The LNA’s operations in Derna may indicate a focus on securing eastern Libya before launching an offensive

on Sirte, though LNA rhetoric continues to focus on combatting ISIS.

Outlook: The Misratans will secure Abugrein before attempting to contest nearby ISIS positions to the south. The LNA will

continue to pressure Derna and attempt to consolidate support for an offensive on Sirte.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya

ISIS is consolidating new territorial gains west of Sirte. Its newly seized positions will facilitate operations against Bani Walid,

Waddan, and Sebha and secure ISIS’s freedom of movement into southwestern Libya. ISIS is also positioning itself to maintain

positions in the vicinity of Abu Najim and conduct spoiler attacks against vulnerable Misratan positions. ISIS’s Wilayat Gharb

Ifriqiyah, also known as Boko Haram, is likely sending fighters to Libya, according to American officials. ISIS’s territorial control

in Libya provides an opportunity for it to expand in West Africa.

Outlook: ISIS will conduct explosive attacks to disrupt Misratan counterattacks in the vicinity of Abugrein and fix local militias in

Misrata and Tripoli. ISIS may pursue a similar strategy to fix the LNA to the south and east of Sirte.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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1) 13 MAY: Pro-GNA security forces captured an ISIS cell in Tripoli.2) 12-16 MAY:Misratan forces initiated Operation Solid Structure in an effort to retake Abugrein from ISIS.3) 15 MAY: ISIS militants seized the Wadi al Loodagricultural area.4) 16 MAY: Local forces repelled an ISIS convoy near BaniWalid.5) 11 MAY: LNA forces besieged Derna.

ASSESSMENT:

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

AQIM refrained from offensive operations and likely continues to re-consolidate resources in its North African networks.

Algerian security forces killed seven suspected terrorists during a clearing operation in Bouira, northern Algeria, two of whom

were reportedly early members of Algeria’s Armed Islamic Group (GIA), which later pledged allegiance to al Qaeda. These

early linkages highlight AQIM’s deep roots in Algeria and signal the group’s motivations for contesting ISIS’s growth there.

Outlook: AQIM will continue to reactivate its networks and build capabilities in Algeria, especially in its center and south.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)

ISIS is likely preparing to attack in Tunisia in the next few weeks. Tunisian security forces dismantled a number of likely pro-

ISIS cells planning to conduct attacks in cities throughout the country before or during the coming Ramadan season. A pro-ISIS

jihadist acknowledged this tactical weakness and called for militants to conduct lone-wolf attacks in Tunisia via a Dark Web

forum, indicating that ISIS is determined to attack Tunisian sites in the near term. The AQIM-affiliated Uqba Ibn Nafa’a brigade

continued to lay low while security forces patrol known terrorist hideouts.

Outlook: ISIS will likely attack Jewish sites and symbols of Western colonialism in Tunisia in the near term. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a

will continue to build its support base and defend its safe haven in western Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)

AQIM-linked groups continued efforts to disrupt the Malian peace process. AQIM militants attacked a Coordination of the

Movements for Azawad (CMA) camp in Farach, Timbuktu region. The CMA is a coalition of ex-rebel groups participating in the

Malian peace process, and competes with jihadist groups for control in northern Mali. Suspected Islamist militants also killed

the military director of health for Kidal region in Gao and attacked a Malian army convoy traveling between Gossi and Hombori,

central Mali. AQIM is likely attacking both participating sides in order to disrupt implementation of the peace deal.

Outlook: AQIM affiliates will launch attacks to weaken pro-government forces and sow discord in northern Mali.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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MAGHREBWEST AFRICA

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1) 11 MAY: Tunisian security forces killed two likely pro-ISIS terrorists and arrested 16 in El Mnihla, Ariana.2) 11 MAY: A likely pro-ISIS militant detonated an SVEST during clashes with security forces in Sammar, Tataouine.3) 11 MAY: Algerian security forces killed seven suspected terrorists in Bouira.4) 16 MAY: Tunisian security forces dismantled a nine-member cell planning attacks in Ben Guerdane.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 11 MAY: A Malian army convoy struck a landmine in Mopti region.

2) 12 MAY: AQIM militants attacked a CMA camp in Farach, Timbuktu region.

3) 14 MAY: GATIA, a pro-government militia, attacked the Ganda Izo insurgent movement in Gourma, Gossi region.

4) 14 MAY:Suspected Islamist militants killed the Kidal military director of health in Gao region.

ACRONYMS

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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)

Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)

Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Possible military dimensions (PMD)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected](202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran [email protected](202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran [email protected](202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected](202) 888-6569

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