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2015-10 County Sales & Price Public PPT

Mar 06, 2016

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2015-10 County Sales & Price Public PPT
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  • CALIFORNIAHOUSINGMARKETUPDATE

    MonthlySalesandPriceStatisticsOctober2015

  • SALESOFEXISTINGDETACHEDHOMES

    California,Oct2015Sales:403,510Units,+6.7%YTD,+1.3%YTY

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    J

    a

    n

    0

    5

    J

    u

    l

    0

    5

    J

    a

    n

    0

    6

    J

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    0

    6

    J

    a

    n

    0

    7

    J

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    0

    7

    J

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    0

    8

    J

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    0

    8

    J

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    0

    9

    J

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    0

    9

    J

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    1

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    5

    *SalesareseasonallyadjustedandannualizedSERIES:SalesofExistingSingleFamilyHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    Oct15:403,510

    Oct14:398,510

  • CALIFORNIASALES

    SERIES:SalesofExistingSingleFamilyHomes,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    60%

    40%

    20%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    J

    a

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    0

    0

    S

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    p

    0

    0

    M

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    0

    1

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    0

    2

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    2

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    0

    3

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    0

    4

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    0

    4

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    0

    5

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    0

    6

    S

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    0

    6

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    0

    7

    J

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    0

    8

    S

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    0

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    M

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    0

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    J

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    0

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    1

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    1

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    3

    J

    a

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    1

    4

    S

    e

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    1

    4

    M

    a

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    1

    5

    YearoverYear%Chg 6per.Mov.Avg.(YearoverYear%Chg)

  • CALIFORNIASALES

    SERIES:SalesofExistingSingleFamilyHomes,SeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    J

    a

    n

    1

    0

    A

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    1

    0

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    1

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    2

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    1

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    1

    5

    YearoverYear%Chg 6per.Mov.Avg.(YearoverYear%Chg)

    Signoflevelingoff

  • SALESBYREGION(EXISTINGSFH)

    SERIES:Sales,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    BayArea CentralValley SoCA

  • BAYAREASALES(EXISTINGSFH)

    SERIES:Sales,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    J

    a

    n

    1

    0

    A

    p

    r

    1

    0

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    1

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    O

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    J

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    J

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    5

    BayArea 6per.Mov.Avg.(BayArea)

  • CENTRALVALLEYSALES(EXISTINGSFH)

    SERIES:Sales,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    30%

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    J

    a

    n

    1

    0

    A

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    1

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    J

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    1

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    5

    CentralValley 6per.Mov.Avg.(CentralValley)

  • SOUTHERNCALIFORNIA(EXISTINGSFH)

    SERIES:Sales,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    J

    a

    n

    1

    0

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    1

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    SoCA 6per.Mov.Avg.(SoCA)

  • SALESSHAREBYPRICERANGE

    15%17% 17%

    14%

    18%

    9% 8%

    3%

    12%

    18%16%

    14%

    20%

    9% 8%

    3%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    Oct14 Oct15

    SERIES:SalesofExistingDetachedHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • CHANGEINSALESBYPRICERANGE

    (YeartoYear)

    20.6%

    2.6%

    4.7%

    4.9%

    10.3%

    6.3%3.7%

    1.3%

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    Oct15

    SERIES:SalesofExistingDetachedHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • MEDIANPRICEOFEXISTINGDETACHEDHOMES

    California,Oct2015:$475,990,1.3%MTM,+5.7%YTY

    $

    $100,000

    $200,000

    $300,000

    $400,000

    $500,000

    $600,000

    $700,000

    J

    a

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    0

    5

    J

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    0

    5

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    0

    6

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    1

    5

    P:May07$594,530

    T:Feb09$245,23059%frompeak

    SERIES:MedianPriceofExistingSingleFamilyHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    Oct15:$475,990Oct14:

    $450,460

  • INVENTORYDROPPEDSIGNIFICANTLYINTHEBAYAREASINCE2009

    BUTREMAINEDTIGHT

    Note:UnsoldInventoryIndexrepresentsthenumberofmonthsitwouldtaketoselltheremaininginventoryforthemonthin question.TheremaininginventoryforthemonthisdefinedasthenumberofpropertiesthatwereActive,Pending,andContingent(whenavailable)anddividethesumbythenumberofSoldpropertiesforthemonthinquestion.

    2.5

    3.64.0

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15

    BayArea CentralValley SoCA

    SERIES:UnsoldInventoryIndexofExistingSingleFamilyHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • CAMEDIANPRICE(EXISTINGSFH)

    SERIES:MedianPrice,NotSeasonallyAdjustedSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    15%

    10%

    5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    J

    a

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    0

    5

    J

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    0

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    N

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    0

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    A

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    0

    6

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    6

    F

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    7

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    0

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    0

    8

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    MonthtoMonth%Chg

  • INVENTORYCONTINUEDTODECLINEFROMLASTYEAR

    Oct2014:3.8Months;Oct2015:3.7Months

    Note:UnsoldInventoryIndexrepresentsthenumberofmonthsitwouldtaketoselltheremaininginventoryforthemonthin question.TheremaininginventoryforthemonthisdefinedasthenumberofpropertiesthatwereActive,Pending,andContingent(whenavailable)anddividethesumbythenumberofSoldpropertiesforthemonthinquestion.

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    J

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    0

    5

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    0

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    0

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    1

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    J

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    1

    5

    SERIES:UnsoldInventoryIndexofExistingSingleFamilyHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • 50%

    40%

    30%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    J

    a

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    0

    5

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    0

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    J

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    0

    6

    J

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    0

    7

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    Condo SingleFamilyHomes

    HOMEPRICEAPPRECIATIONSHAVEMODERATEDSINCEMID2013

    SERIES:SalesofSFHandCondoUnitsSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    YTY%Chg.inPrice

  • PRICEPERSQUAREFOOT

    Oct2015:$237,Up0.3%MTM,Up2.8%YTY

    $0

    $50

    $100

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    J

    a

    n

    0

    7

    A

    p

    r

    0

    7

    J

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    0

    7

    O

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    0

    7

    J

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    0

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    1

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    1

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    1

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    1

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    1

    4

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    1

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    1

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    1

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    1

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    1

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    J

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    1

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    O

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    1

    5

    PRICEPERSQ.FT.

    SERIES:MedianPricePerSquareFeetSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • SALESTOLISTRATIO

    Oct2015:98.2%,Down0.3%MTM,Up0.7%YTY

    98.2%

    86%

    88%

    90%

    92%

    94%

    96%

    98%

    100%

    102%

    J

    a

    n

    0

    7

    A

    p

    r

    0

    7

    J

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    0

    7

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    0

    7

    J

    a

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    0

    8

    A

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    0

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    0

    8

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    0

    8

    J

    a

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    0

    9

    A

    p

    r

    0

    9

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    0

    9

    O

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    0

    9

    J

    a

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    1

    0

    A

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    1

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    J

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    1

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    1

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    2

    J

    a

    n

    1

    3

    A

    p

    r

    1

    3

    J

    u

    l

    1

    3

    O

    c

    t

    1

    3

    J

    a

    n

    1

    4

    A

    p

    r

    1

    4

    J

    u

    l

    1

    4

    O

    c

    t

    1

    4

    J

    a

    n

    1

    5

    A

    p

    r

    1

    5

    J

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    1

    5

    O

    c

    t

    1

    5

    SalestoListPriceRatio

    SERIES:SalestoListRatioSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

  • DEMANDOUTPACINGSUPPLYINSOCALANDCENTRALVALLEY

    9%

    1%

    5%4%

    10%

    6%

    20%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    SanFranciscoBayArea SouthernCalifornia CentralValley

    Sales ActiveListingsYeartoYear%Chg

    SOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS

    Oct2015