GROWTH IN NON VEGETERIAN FOOD CONSUMPTION BY 2014 AND IT’S IMPACT ON ANIMAL HEALTH INPUTS WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO PROBIOTICS I. PREAMBLE Production and consumption of Non vegetarian food are increasing every year in spite of some health conscious by birth non vegetarians are avoiding non vegetarian food Kalyan Chakravarthy, country head of the food and agriculture division of Yes Bank says that in China and India, the youth and high-income population is adapting to meat. Current global livestock production is growing more dynamically than any other agricultural sector around the world; livestock are now the world's largest land user (FAOa 2001). According to the agriculture ministry, meat production in India has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5 per cent over the past 15 years. Trends have shown that non vegetarian food consumption in India has gone up from once a week to three times. According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), per capita meat consumption in India could reach 18 kg in 2020, compared to 10-12 kg now.
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GROWTH IN NON VEGETERIAN FOOD CONSUMPTION BY 2014 AND IT’S IMPACT ON ANIMAL HEALTH INPUTS
WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO PROBIOTICS
I. PREAMBLE
Production and consumption of Non vegetarian food are increasing every year in spite of some health conscious by birth non vegetarians are avoiding non vegetarian food
Kalyan Chakravarthy, country head of the food and agriculture division of Yes Bank says that in China and India, the youth and high-income population is adapting to meat.
Current global livestock production is growing more dynamically than any other agricultural sector around the world; livestock are now the world's largest land user (FAOa 2001).
According to the agriculture ministry, meat production in India has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5 per cent over the past 15 years.
Trends have shown that non vegetarian food consumption in India has gone up from once a week to three times.
According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), per capita meat consumption in India could reach 18 kg in 2020, compared to 10-12 kg now.
At present, in India Per capita availability of meat is 1.6 kg. Per capita availability of egg is 1.8 kg or 42 eggs. Average consumption of eggs in major cities is 170 eggs Average consumption of eggs in smaller cities is 40 eggs Average consumption of developed rural areas is 20 eggs Average consumption of undeveloped rural areas is only 5 eggs. While 20% of Indian population is vegetarian.
Driven by population, income increases, rapid urbanization, and changing dietary habits, there is an unprecedented expansion of the livestock industry throughout the developing world where per capita meat production is expected to increase by nearly 50% between 2000 and 2020. Global meat demand is expected to grow by 35% and milk demand by 25% over the same period.
The increase in consumption of non vegetarian food is largely owing to the following facts.1. In developing countries, Governments are providing midday meal to school going children where Eggs are provided periodically.2. Compared to Vegetables, prices of Eggs are low in several countries.3. Dining out is becoming a regular habit and while dining in restaurants people try several non vegetarian dishes.4. With the increase in earning and purchasing capacities, people are tending towards Non vegetarian food.5. Urbanization. Rural folk moving to cities are more prone for increased intake of meat and eggs.
Demand for meat worldwide is forecast to rise more than 55 per cent between 1997 and 2020, with China alone accounting for more than 40 per cent of this increase, and India, 4 per cent, according to IFPRI. (http://www.businessworld.in/index.php/Commodities/Meat-Of-The-Matter.html) By the year 2020, it is estimated that there will be some 800 million additional people to feed on the planet. This together with higher income for food spending will put a tremendous demand on crop production.
The USDA reports that animals cycled through the U.S. meat industry produce 61 milliontons of waste each year, which is 130 times the volume of human waste, or .2 tons forevery US citizen (Horrigan et al. 1999). In the United States, waste from every type oflivestock increased between 1987 and 1997, with the largest increases in waste fromsheep and poultry. Large manure volumes will continue to be produced and distributedon less land in the coming years (Beegle and Lanyon 1994). These consequences ofanimal waste can be divided into three primary categories: water degradation, landdegradation, and air pollution.
Hence the need arises to put efforts in the following.1. Achieving more quantity and quality of meat, eggs and milk employing less land,
water and time.This can be achieved by
Encouraging high yielding varieties of animals Improving pre and post harvest technologies to avoid losses in transit. Improving the disease resistance and disease curing to reduce mortality
rates and to curb any weight falls during ailments Improving the quality of feed, FCR. Reducing the quantities og inputs by increasing TDN, reducing excreta,
employing newer technologies like DFM (Direct Fed Microbes to produce Amino Acids, Organic Acids, Enzymes, Growth promoters, Toxin degraders etc)
2. Achieve agricultural production without damaging the environment by
3. Biodegrade all the wastes and pollutants of the industry like litter and make them more environment friendly.
4. Convert the poultry litter and cow dung into fit animal feeding stuff rather than usage of the same as manure.
Probiotics are live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer a health benefit on the host.Prebiotics are nondigestible substances that provide a beneficial physiological effect for the host by selectively stimulating the favorable growth or activity of a limited number of indigenous bacteriaSynbiotics are products that contain both probiotics and probiotics.
At the start of the 20th century, probiotics were thought to beneficially affect the host by improving its intestinal microbial balance, thus inhibiting pathogens and toxin producing bacteria. Today, specific health effects are being investigated and documented including alleviation of chronic intestinal inflammatory diseases, prevention and treatment of pathogen-induced diarrhea, urogenital infections, and atopic diseases.
Today, Scientists and Industry has recognized the important role of probiotics In improving
The survival rate, Weight gain FCR Egg laying capacity, Milk yielding capacity,
And in reducing Residual antibiotics, hormones, pesticides, dewormers Mortality rate Crop time Pollution Damage to Mother Earth.
According to a new market research report, 'Probiotics Market (2009-2014)' (www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/probiotic-market-advanced-technologies-and-global-market-69.html), published by MarketsandMarkets(www.marketsandmarkets.com), the global probiotics market is expectedto be worth US$ 32.6 billion by 2014, with the Europe and Asia accounting fornearly 42% and 30% of the total revenues respectively. The global market isexpected to record a CAGR of 12.6% from 2009 to 2014.
Probiotics, belonging to the functional group of gut flora stabilisers within the category of zootechnical feed additives (according to the Regulation EC No 1831/2003) is a fast growing marketIn 2004, the global market value of probiotics was €32 million, with a forecasted annual growth of approximately 3%. However, due to the ban of antimicrobial feed additives, the probiotic market in Western Europe showed an annual growth of more than 7%. In 2006, Western Europe produced around 296 tons of probiotics, with a value of €15.5 million. With 1012 CFU (equivalent to about 100g) usually added to a ton of mixed feed, approximately 3 million tons of feed containing probiotics was produced last year.(www.allaboutfeed.net/article-database/potenti...)
Probiotic Foods & Beverages segment is expected to command over 75% of the overall probiotics market in 2009.Probiotic dairy products are accounting for almost 70% in the year 2009 and reaching a market size of almost $24 billion by the end of 2014.Probiotic dairy products market in USA is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% from 2009 to 2014.Probiotic chocolates, probiotic ice creams and probiotic baked products areexpected to enjoy a much larger market share.Europe market for probiotics is estimated at $13.5 billion by 2014. Its 12.2% CAGR from 2009 to 2014 is driven by consumer demand for health-enhancing probiotic products, such as probiotic yogurts, other probiotic dairy products and probiotic dietary supplements.Asia is the second largest segment, growing at with an estimated CAGR of 11.2% to reach $9.0 billion by 2014.
Animals can be classified as follows.1. Companion animals2. Animals used in Agriculture3. Human food product (Milk, Eggs) producing Animals4. Animals used as Human Food5. Animals used in Industry( Wool bearing)6. Laboratory Animals7. Wild Animals
Beneficial microorganisms can be used in food, feed, drinking water; over pond water mediums; in the environment.
Beneficial microorganisms can be used in controlling Bacterial, fungal and viral infections Cancer Cholesterol External parasites Insects Internal parasites Obesity Pests
Beneficial microorganisms can be used as alternate antibiotics, pesticides, insecticides, growth promoters.
Beneficial microorganisms can be used as Anifungals Antibiotic s Antivirals Enzyme producers FCR Improvers Growth promoters Gut acidifiers Immuno modulators Insecticides Meat tenderizers Oxygen liberators Parasiticides Pesticides Pollutant degraders Protozoacides Toxin binders Zoothamnicides
Role of Probiotics To combat diseases like as Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS), dyspepsia, chronic
diarrhea or constipation. To curdle milk To detoxify To eliminate pathogens To exist symbiotically To fight against certain cancers. To help in Lactic intolerance To help in producing short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) To help liver and kidneys in discharging their functions To help regulate the immune response To improve mineral absorption To improve Total digestible Nutrients (TDN) of the food intake. To inhibit LDL accumulation To maintain optimum micro flora
To reduce Triglycerides To reduce the stress owing to high levels of Antibiotics
Activities of Probiotic Bacteria Anti colon cancer effects Anti Milk allergy Anti-diarrheal effects Cholesterol lowering Correction of Hypertension Immune system modulation Improved tolerance to milk Intestinal health maintenance Reduction of Lactose intolerance Suppression of harmful intestinal microbe activities Suppression of pathogen translocation Vaginal/urinary tract health maintenance
Of the 18 authorised probiotics in the EU, 12 are authorised for pig feed (10 are approved for piglets, 6 for sows and 5 for fattening pigs). The micro-organisms for pig feed are of various origins. Most preparations contain defined strains of bacteria and only three of them contain yeasts. Bacillus strains are spore forming bacteria and are applied as spore preparations while enterococci and pediococci do not form spores and are applied as desiccated vegetative cells. Therefore, Bacillus probiotics are much more stable during feed processing (including pelleting and during in-feed storage). We have found that the recovery of B. cereus var. toyoi was 95% after pelleting (conditioner 80°C, dye 87°C), while the recovery of viable counts of an E. faecium strain decreased with increasing treatment temperature (Figure 1). However, the stability of vegetative cells can be improved by various techniques (soaking on globuli, coating). Although viability losses can be compensated by initial overdosing during feed production if the rate of inactivation is known, storage of the complete feed is still a matter of concern. Bacterial spores, on the other hand, are remarkably stable during storage in pelleted feed (Figure 2 ). Yeasts are the most sensitive to heat treatment. Probably influenced by their stability characteristics, sales volume of used probiotic organisms in pig feeding can be categorised as follows: Bacillus spore probiotics > Enterococcus strains (lactic acid bacteria) > yeast probiotics (viable cells).
The European Union has not yet implemented regulations for the risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms (GMO) in animal nutrition.Especially when GMOs are used to deliver drugs or vaccines, they could not be regulated as feed additives but have to be treated as therapeutic agents.(http://www.allaboutfeed.net/article-database/potentials-of-probiotics-in-pig-nutrition-id1140.html)
In Japan a standard was developed by the Fermented Milks and Lactic Acid Bacteria Beverages Association stipulating that a product contain 1 x 107 viable bifidobacteria/g or mL product to be considered a probiotic food.
Complete Ban on All Growth-promoting Antimicrobials in the EU Drives Growth in the Animal Feed Probiotics Market.
A huge demand for phytase is predicted in the future. This is a result of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) concerns about chemical emissions from the agricultural industry. Farmers are also looking to reduce phosphate content in animal wastes. Thus, the most rapid growth is expected in the area of animal feed enzymes led by phytase.
Global market for chemotherapeutic drugs which either kill parasite populations or prevent the development of immature parasites into adult forms, is worth almost $4.7 billion, making it the single most valuable sector of the animal health products market.At the moment very few companies like DVS BioLife Ltd employ probiotics for controlling internal and external parasites.
The global market for nutraceuticals for companion animals was estimated in excess of $1 billion in 2006. Several algae like spirulina, chlorella, Dunaliella Salina are employed.
The global probiotics market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of around 13% from 2009-2014 and Europe and Asia would be occupying the maximum market share by the end of 2014.
There is good in vitro evidence that certain probiotic strains can inhibit thegrowth and adhesion of a range of enteropathogens (Coconnier et al., 1993, 1997;Hudault et al., 1997; Gopal et al., 2001; Bernet Camard et al., 1997), and animal studieshave indicated beneficial effects against pathogens such as Salmonella (Ogawa et al.,2001; Shu et al., 2000).
The intestinal microflora likely plays a critical role in inflammatory conditions inthe gut, and potentially probiotics could remediate such conditions through modulation ofthe microflora.
Administration of lactobacilli and bifidobacteria could theoretically modify the flora leading to decreased β-glucuronidase and carcinogen levels (Hosada et al., 1996). Furthermore, there is some evidence that cancer recurrences at other sites, such as the urinary bladder can be reduced by intestinal instillation of probiotics including L. casei Shirota (Aso et al., 1995). In vitro studies with L. rhamnosus GG and bifidobacteria and an in vivo study using L. rhamnosus strains GG and LC-705 as well as Propionibacterium sp. showed a decrease in availability of carcinogenic aflatoxin in the lumen (El-Nezami et al., 2000; Oatley et al., 2000).(http://www.who.int/foodsafety/publications/fs_management/en/probiotics.pdf)
Intravenous, intraperitoneal and intrapleural injection of L. casei Shirota into mice significantly increased NK activity of mesenteric node cells but not of Peyer's patch cells or of spleen cells (Matsuzaki and Chin, 2000), supporting the concept that some probiotic strains can enhance the innate immune response.(Joint FAO/WHO Expert Consultation on Evaluation of Health and Nutritional Properties of Probiotics in Food Including Powder Milk with Live Lactic Acid Bacteria, October 2001)
In a series of randomized, double blind, placebo controlled clinical trials, it was demonstrated that dietary consumption of B.lactis HN019 and L. rhamnosus HN001 resulted in measurable enhancement of immune parameters in the elderly
(Arunachalam et al., 2000; Gill et al., 2001; Sheih et al., 2001).
Some probiotic strains were shown to inhibit the growth of enteropathogens, such as Salmonella enteritidis, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, and Serratia marcesens, in vitro (48, 49) and in this respect may offer considerable therapeutic potential. This finding,
together with more recent evidence showing that Lactobacillus GG exerts antagonist activity against Salmonella typhimurium C5 infection both in vitro and in vivo (50), provides a basis for the clinical use of probiotics in suppression of pathogens.(http://www.ajcn.org/cgi/content/full/73/2/476S)
Potential for probiotics microorganisms to modulate the immune response and prevent onset of allergic diseases has been demonstrated.
Ability of lactobacilli to reverse increased intestinal permeability, enhance gut-specific IgA responses, promote gut barrier function through restoration of normal microbes, and enhance transforming growth factor beta and interleukin 10 production as well as cytokines that promote production of IgE antibodies (Kalliomaki et al., 2001; Isolauri, 2001).
Certain microorganisms can contribute to the generation of counter-regulatory T-helper cell immune responses, indicating that use of specific probiotic microorganisms could redirect the polarized immunological memory to a healthy one (McCracken and Lorenz, 2001).
There is preliminary evidence that use of probiotic lactobacilli and metabolic by-productspotentially confer benefits to the heart, including prevention and therapy of variousischemic heart syndromes (Oxman et al., 2001) and lowering serum cholesterol (De Roos and Katan, 2000).
There is some clinical evidence to suggest that oral and vaginal administration of lactobacilli can eradicate asymptomatic (Reid et al., 2001a; 2001b) and symptomatic Bacterial vaginosis(Hilton et al., 1995; Sieber and Dietz, 1998).
One study of day care centres in Finland showed that probiotic use reduced the incidence of respiratory infections and days absent due to ill health (Hatakka et al., 2001).
Probiotic bacteria containing β-galactosidase can be added to food to improve lactosemaldigestion (Kim and Gilliland, 1983).
The global market estimate of functional foods has been up to 73 Billion € and an annular growth rate of 8-16%. In a recent study undertaken by Leatherhead Food RA, the market for functional foods in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden was reviewed. The results of the
study showed that the probiotic yogurt market in these 9 countries totalled >250 million kg in 1997 (11), with France representing the largest market, having sales of 90 million kg, valued at US$219 million. The German market for probiotic yogurts is growing
rapidly; for example, during 1996–1997, it increased by 150%, whereas the UK market grew by a more modest 26% during the same period. On average, probiotic yogurts
accounted for 10% of all yogurts sold in the 9 countries studied, with Denmark having the highest proportion (20%) of probiotic yogurts, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom (both at 13%) and then France (11%). On the lower end of the scale were the Netherlands and Belgium (both at 6%) and then Finland and Sweden (both at 5%) (11). Seen as crucial to market expansion in Europe is further clarity on the use of health claims. The market for functional foods in Europe could ultimately account for 5% of total food expenditure in Europe, which, based on current prices, would equate to US$30 billion (5).
This study on the envisaged growth in the consumption of Non Vegetarian Foods and the role of probiotics in improving the scenario is based on the assumptions narrated below.Several factors may influence these observations. Some of them are listed below.
I.II. ASSUMPTIONS IN PREPARING THIS REPORT1. Agricultural support and trade policies influence markets
2. Agricultural production continues to expand, but more slowly
In spite of reduction in the Acreage; production will improve owing to the improved Seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and due to the better package of practices in pre and post harvesting including storage and transporting.
3. Agricultural lands are becoming scarce day by day owing to Submerging in oncoming projects on rivers Conversion into residential and industrial usage Immersion into sea owing to rise in mean sea level caused by ice glacier
melting (Due to Global Warming)
4. Consumption to grow faster in developing countries due to higher earning capacities
5. Despite rekindled fears, inflation expected to remain low
6. Diseases like Asian soya bean rust could change the outlook for oilseed markets
7. Population growth rates to decline World population is projected to soar from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.9 billion in 2025 and9.3 billion in 2050 (Sadik 2001).
8. Sustained, broad-based growth in farm animals is expected in the medium to longer term
I. III. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE DEMAND OF NON VEGETARIAN FOOD
I. IV. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE SUPPLY OF NON VEGETARIAN FOOD
1. Climatic changes2. Improvements in Feed Technology4. GM in Poultry and other Breeds6. Change in the Priorities in feeding stuff7. Change of size and concept of operators like a shift from small families to small companies8. Better usage of land and water resources
I. V. FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE AVAILABILITY OF FEEDING STUFF FOR USE IN ANIMAL FEEDS
1. Demand for biofuels such as ethanol from grain 2. Demand for biodiesel from edible oil 3. Demand for human consumption.4. Conversion of Lands used to produce Grains and Oil Seeds to better
remunerating crops like Horticulture, Flowers, Vegetables, Medicinal Herbs etc.
I. VI. FACTORS THAT MAKE USAGE OF PROBIOTICS AS THE ONLY BEST ALTERNATIVE
Abuse of Antibiotics Abuse of Growth promoting antibiotics and chemicals Abuse of Hormones Abuse of Pesticides, insecticides Abuse of dewormers, parasiticides, disinfectants, sanitizers etc
Table I.01.
When GDP increases to developing country status, growth in meat consumption rises quickly reflecting consumer desires. In many countries, per capita income levels have more than doubled over the past two decades.
Table I. 02. Average annual percentage increase over 10 year period
World 1.27 1.01 2.62 3.10Africa 2.28 1.83 3.37 3.80America 1.36 1.04 3.02 3.24Asia 1.29 1.02 2.61 3.56Europe 0.01 -0.07 2.13 2.40Oceania 1.15 0.73 3.51 3.53Note: Income is at 1995 USD market prices.Source: World Bank, December 2004.
World population is projected to soar from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.9 billion in 2025 and 9.3 billion in 2050
(Sadik 2001). Countries with large population bases and high growth rates are Indonesia- 240 m, 1.5%, India -
1,065 m, 1.4%, Pakistan - 161 m, 2.0%, Bangladesh -143 m , 2.1% and Brazil - 185 m 1.1% (Anon, 2007).
A 10% increase in income would result in a 1% increase in food expenditure in the U.S., a 6.5% increase in the Philippines and 18% in Tanzania (Seale and Bernstein, 2003).
Table I.03As per CFLMA, Indian feed production details are as follows.
Species Year Feed in KgBroiler 2004 6.2 x 109
Layer 2004 8.1 x 109
Cattle 2004 4 x 109
Shrimp 2005 0.307 x 109
Fish 2004 0.01 x 109
It is estimated that the real productions by 2014 will be enhanced at an average growth rate of 9.25%
The top 15 countries that produce animal feed accounted for 73% of a total production of 625 mmt in 2005 (Gill, 2007).
Table I. 04. Production and consumption average annual growth rates, 2004-2014PRODUCTION CONSUMPTIONTotal OECD NON-OECD Total OECD NON-OECD
Note: (1) The least squares growth rate, r is estimated by fitting a linear regression trend line as follows:Ln(xt)=a+r*tEconometrics and models and Econometrics forecasts, Robert S. Pindyck.Source: OECD and FAO Secretariats.
Table I.10. Regional growth estimates of demand for meat over the period 1990-2020.
Region Meat World 60- 93 Developed 17-18 Developing 123-206 68-91Sub-Saharan 141-194 136-161Latin America 76-105 53-77West Asia & North Africa 104-157 74-100Rest of Asia 148-255 64-85Source: IFPRI 1995
Table I.11
Fig 1.12
Fig. 1.13
LIST OF SOME OF THE COMMONLY USED HUMAN PROBIOTICSWHICH ARE CONSIDERED AS GRAS
INDIAThe eating-out phenomenon, with more quick service restaurant chains opening up, is changing the consumption profile of Indians. The current chicken consumption is under 3 kg per head a year and the
poultry industry expects the consumption to double in the next five years.
Indian poultry industry has been growing at annual varying rates of 8-15% and this growth in the past few decades made India fifth largest producer of eggs and ninth largest producer of poultry broiler. At present the industry is estimated at over Rs 30,000 crore and is expected to grow over Rs 60,000 crore by 2010. India produces 1,400 million chickens a year, which is close to 27 million a week, of which 95% is traded alive. According to a market report the poultry production and consumption in the domestic markets is slated to grow by 66% to approximately 2.3 million tonnes by 2010.
The Rs 40,000-crore domestic poultry industry produces 240 crore birds commercially every year. To cope with the doubling of demand by 2014-15, the industry will need to expand at a rate of 12-15% annually.“While consumption is expected to double in the next five years, it may not become 6 kg per head in 2014-15. It may increase to 4.5-5 kg per head, factoring in an increase in our population,” Venkateshwara Hatcheries’ deputy general manager Dr Pedgaonkar said. By then, the poultry industry could become a Rs 60,000 crore to Rs 65,000 crore sector.
Godrej Agrovet managing director BS Yadav said, “The consumption of chicken doubles every five-six years, so we expect it to double by 2014-15. Mr Yadav added that the current high prices of chicken are driven by food inflation since pulses have become expensive. “Farmgate chicken prices have nearly doubled this year over prices in 2008. In 2008, the farm gate price was Rs 30-35 per kg, this year it is Rs 60-65 per kg, mainly because the industry shrank last year. Retail prices have reached an all-time high of Rs 100-110 per kg. In 2008, 42-44 million chicks were placed every week. In 2009, the placement fell to 36-37 million per week, leading to the current chicken shortage,” he said. He said that the growth in quick service restaurants has pushed chicken consumption over the past three years to emerge as a significant segment. “Over the past decade, institutional sales, which means these quick service restaurant chains, have emerged as the biggest consumers. Eating out of the home has become a big segment,” Mr Yadav said.
Outlining the issues the poultry industry faces, Suguna Group managing director B Soundararajan said, “In 2007, the per-capita consumption in India was 2 kg. But due to the financial crisis and an increase in commodity prices, there was a drop in consumption. This year, consumption has picked up again.”
EUThe market outlook for poultry meat is seen as favourable given strong consumer preferences for poultry meat and the competitive price of poultry meat vis-à-vis other meats. With the growth in EU poultry-meat production lagging behind the growth in consumption by 2008 the EU has become a net importer of poultry meat. With this trend continuing up to 2014, a growing production deficit will lead to increased EU imports of poultry meat (+8.04% between 2008 and 2014). Exports of poultry meat meanwhile are set to decline by 8.16%, ‘due to strong competition on the world markets by low-cost producers and unfavourable $/€ and Brazilian Real/€ exchange rates’.Despite the growing gap between EU production and consumption EU poultry-meat exports will still amount to 720,000 tonnes in 2014 (down from 881,000 tonnes in 2005), reflecting the EU preference for poultry breast and the need to export poultry parts.
EUEU beef production is projected to decline in the medium term to 7.6 million tonnes by 2014 from 7,959,000 tonnes in 2008, a fall of 4.51%. This is linked to the reduction of the dairy herd and the impact of the decoupling of EU aid payments. However, trends in the size of the dairy herd will be critically determined by the rate of milk-quota expansion agreed as part of the transition to the abolition of the quota-management system in 2015. The higher the increase in milk quotas the lower the rate of decline of the dairy herd and consequently the higher the level of domestic EU beef production. EU consumption of beef however is also projected to decline, although at a slower rate of -2.08% between 2008 and 2014. Despite the production deficit in the EU exports will continue to take place, albeit at greatly reduced levels (partly in response to higher domestic demand). Indeed, despite EU enlargement total EU exports by 2014 will be only 21.13% of the 2005 level. EU imports of beef are projected to increase by 25.34% between 2008 and 2014, from 592,000 tonnes to 743,000 tonnes.
The rise in EU imports is likely to increase the competition faced by ACP beef suppliers, although the price implications of this will be critically determined by the trade arrangements under which this beef enters the EU market. In anticipation of increased competition on undifferentiated EU beef markets, some ACP beef exporters are improving their marketing efforts to target ‘luxury purchase’ markets in the EU. This is already yielding significant financial benefits. However market diversification beyond the EU remains a critical priority, in preparation for the market consequences of the evolving EU trade regime in the beef sector.
IV. DAIRY
World milk production is projected to increase by just under 2% annually between 2004 and2014, reaching 747 million tonnes in 2014. The European Union, India, United States, Russia, Pakistan, Brazil and China account for over two-thirds of total milk output. The growth is expected to be especially strong in India and China.
EU_Delivery and production of milk (millions of tonnes)
Overall meat consumption is projected to increase from the estimated 84 kg/head in 2006 to around 86.7 kg/head by the year 2014. Pig meat would remain the most preferred meat by EU consumers with a share of about 50 %, followed by poultry that would increase its share to 28 % (+1.8 %).
VII 2014 PROJECTIONS OF PROBIOTIC USAGE WORLDWIDE
If global feed production grows at its current annual rate of rate of around 2%, the world will be producing around 750 mmt of industrial feed by 2015. This will require an additional 20% of grain and oilseed meal which translates to a yearly global production of 1168 mmt of coarse grain (additional 195 mmt) and 255 mmt oilseed meal (additional 43 mmt) by 2016.
(Supply and Demand of Raw Materials: Are They in Balance? ; Robert A. Swick, R&D Animal Nutrition Director; Agrenco Group; 50 Armenian Street, #04-02 Wilmer HouseSingapore)
Efforts are made to visualize the production and consumption of Non vegetarian foods by 2014.
REQUIREMENTS BY 2014SPECIES BIOMASS CONCENTRATE
FEED REQUIREMENTIn Kg KgCattle for Beef 66.321x 109 165.80 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGut Probiotics 4 B CFU/g
28g per adult animal once in a week0.01125447 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gGas Adsorbant Microbes 4 B CFU/g
Once in 15 days @ 100 gms/ ton feed 0.0011053 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Wet Litter Managing Microbes over the floor @ 2g/ sq m 0.002389807 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Cattle for Milk 89.652x 109 1630.036x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGut Probiotics 4 B CFU/g
28g per adult animal once in a week0.015213 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gGas Adsorbant Microbes 4 B CFU/g
Once in 15 days @ 100 gms/ ton feed 0.010866 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Wet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m 0.00322954 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gMicrobes useful as galactagogues
4 B CFU/g@ 15 g/adult milch animal daily
0.00815018 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gCattle for Agricultural use 22.45x 109 163.885 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGas Adsorbant Microbes 4 B CFU/g
Once in 15 days @ 100 gms/ ton feed 0.00109256 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Wet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m 0.00080896 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Poultry for Table Eggs 129.041x 109 6829.494 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGut Probiotics 4 B CFU/g
750g / Ton Feed once in a fortnight5.122 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gWet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m of 20 cm
height heap0.025919 109
of 4 BCFU/gGut acidifying Microbes 2 B CFU/g
1g/L drinking water 13.658988 109
of 4 B CFU/g
Enzyme Secreting DFM 4 B CFU/g75- 150 g to 1M T Feed
0.7853918 x 109
4 B CFU/g
Amino Acid Producing DFM 9 B CFU/g750 g/ MT Feed
5.1221205 x 109
Of 9 B CFU/gToxin degrading DFM 4 B CFU/g
250-500 gms/ Ton Feed2.253733 x 109
Of 4B CFU/g
Poultry for Meat 83.0315 x 109 149.4567 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGut Probiotics 4 B CFU/g
750g / Ton Feed once in a fortnight0.112 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gWet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m 0.016606 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gEnzyme Secreting DFM 4 B CFU/g
75- 150 g to 1M T Feed0.50536077 x 109
of 4 B CFU/gAmino Acid Producing DFM 9 B CFU/g
750 g/ MT Feed0.112092525 x 109
Of 9 B CFU/gToxin degrading DFM 4 B CFU/g
250-500 gms/ Ton Feed0.0493207 x 109
Of 4 B CFU/g
Sheep and Goat for Meat 13.4585 x 109 30.28162 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgGas Adsorbant Microbes 4 B CFU/g
Once in 15 days @ 100 gms/ ton feed 0.00020188 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
Wet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m 0.0016150 x 109
of 4 BCFU/gEnzyme Secreting DFM 4 B CFU/g
75- 150 g to 1M T Feed0.0034823863 x 109
Of 4 B CFU/gAmino Acid Producing DFM 9 B CFU/g
750 g/ MT Feed0.02272 x 109
Of 9 B CFU/g
Sheep and Goat wool 0.715 x 109 0.01 x 109
PRODUCT TVC and Dose QTY in KgWet Litter Managing Microbes over the litter @ 2g/ sq m 0.0000858 x 109
of 4 BCFU/g
The demands of Duck feed, Quail Feed, Pig Feed, Fish feed and Shrimp feed are not included in all the above calculations.
All the above simple calculations are arrived based on the projections given by veteran agencies like FAO only. (Above Tables may be referred)
VIII. CONCLUSION
1. Total feed requirement can be minimized by improving the absorption techniques like Enzyme secreting Direct Fed Microbes
2. Poultry litter, cow dung etc can be made into fit feeding stuff by processing with microorganisms by eliminating pathogens and increasing the bioavailability of Nutrients in the litter and dung.
3. Employing better Feed technologies like Predigesting the Feeding stuff using microorganisms
4. Pre and post harvest technologies are to be improved and taken up by larger agencies to minimize spoilage and wastage using mcroorganisms
5. Feed Technologies are to be upgraded by employing DFM (Direct Fed Microbes to produce Amino Acids, Organic Acids, Enzymes, Growth promoters, Toxin degraders etc) which are cost effective, target specific and consumer friendly To improve the quality of feed To improve the FCR. To reduce the quantities of inputs by increasing TDN, To reduce the excreta, To improve survival rate To combat the diseases. To reduce the crop cycles To improve the shelf life of the products To produce in an organic way
6. Biodegradation of all the wastes and pollutants of the industry like litter so as to make them more environment friendly.
WEB REFERENCES:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2007a/summary.pdf
Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income 2007-14, full text (March 2008)http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2007b/fullrep.pdf
Prospects for EU agricultural markets and income 2007-14, executive summary (March 2008)http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2007b/summary.pdf
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